Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. The Tories have never accepted the highest uptake of rooftop solar is not the inner city – but places like Bundaberg.

    It’s the same with EV. Punters like the idea of taking more control and becoming more efficient. Becoming producers themselves.

    Meanwhile the Tories are backing big private monopolies who just rip people off.

    It’s ideologically incoherent and they are to be whipped from pillar to post until they learn.

    You reckon you’re pro-small business but you oppose rooftop generation of power?

    Makes no sense d*ckhead. Election fail.

  2. States issuing Senate writs of their own volition sounds like a plot element of an Australian version of The West Wing.

  3. BK:

    The video in that story, while not the incident reported on, is pretty scary! What gets into some people’s heads?!

  4. “Sky are obsessed by electric cars. Peta Credlin has been banging on about them, Alan Jones has been banging on about them and I flick over just now and am greeted by Chris Kenny banging on about electric cars. All seem to indicate this exciting topic will be on high rotation for them.”

    Morrison will launch a policy promising subsidies for coal-fired cars.

  5. BK says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 7:11 pm

    David Crowe spent most of his Ipsos story obsessing over the PPM figures.
    Has PPM ever served any useful purpose?

    Yep, you’ve just highlighted it, it allows people to avoid talking about the primary and 2PP figures.

  6. BK says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 7:11 pm

    David Crowe spent most of his Ipsos story obsessing over the PPM figures.
    Has PPM ever served any useful purpose?

    —————

    PPM means squat

    Libs/nats under Turnbull who had a ppm around 60% at election time , lost 14 seats in the house of reps

  7. “Sky are obsessed by electric cars. Peta Credlin has been banging on about them, Alan Jones has been banging on about them and I flick over just now and am greeted by Chris Kenny banging on about electric cars. All seem to indicate this exciting topic will be on high rotation for them.”
    _______
    They are like vampires confronted by a wooden stake.

  8. You know, the day after the election, a bunch of Tories and Government Gazette shills are going to look at a photo of ScoFo with his pet coal rock and think “why on earth did we support this #%*}n bonehead?”

  9. I have a simple approach to every Ipsos poll.

    If it is good for labor thrive on it. If bad then ignore it.

    I sleep really really well.

    Cheers.

  10. So ALP, LNP, GRN, OTH: 34, 37, 13, 16

    This gives ALP 2PP of 34 + 0 + 10.4 + 8 = 52.4

    If the numbers are actually 37, 37, 10, 16, this gives 37+0+8+8 = 53.

  11. I don’t understand the Winx horse thing and how that relates to a fair go for humans. So it goes without saying that I definitely do not understand why it’s a bad thing to increase people’s standard of living. Our PM needs to engage his brain before speaking.

    :large

  12. Home and hosed

    Nothing’s changed in 2.5 years.

    The buyer’s remorse kicked in as Trumble was throwing the toys out of the cot at the Wentworth. If he’d maybe actually achieved something at some time in the two years after that before his party knifed he him, he might have possibly had an outside chance or turning it around. But he didn’t (because he always was useless), and knifing him absolutely ensured this pack of idiots wouldn’t be returned.

    We can get excited by polling noise, but this is a dead government walking and has been for a very long time.

  13. Re PPM.

    Turnbull always led Shorten on PPM.

    However, remember Turnbull made Super Saturday a personal contest between himself and Shorten.

    That went well for him especially in Longman.

  14. “Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

    So, the ALP 2PP is 53% according to Ipsos, eh?

    Back in February 17, 2019 I wrote here:
    “Ipsos polls since the last Federal election:
    24-26 Nov 2016: 51% ALP
    22-25 March 2017: 55% ALP
    10-11 May: 53% ALP
    6-9 Sept: 53% ALP
    3-5 April 2018: 52% ALP
    10-12 May: 54% ALP
    21-24 June: 53% ALP
    15-18 Aug: 55% ALP
    12-15 Sept: 53% ALP
    10-13 Oct: 55% ALP
    15-17 Nov: 52% ALP
    13-15 Dec: 54% ALP
    Current Feb 2019: 51% ALP
    PREDICTION:
    Next Ipsos poll: 54% ALP!”

    54% predicted vs 53% observed…. Gees, that wasn’t too bad, eh?….. 🙂

  15. Confessions says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 7:22 pm
    I don’t understand the Winx horse thing and how that relates to a fair go for humans. So it goes without saying that I definitely do not understand why it’s a bad thing to increase people’s standard of living. Our PM needs to engage his brain before speaking.

    Presumably he means “cost of living”. But if Morrison reckons Labor will raise living standards, then who can argue?

  16. You know, the day after the election, a bunch of Tories and Government Gazette shills are going to look at a photo of ScoFo with his pet coal rock and think “why on earth did we support this #%*}n bonehead?”

    They don’t have that much self awareness.

    Half will be thinking they shoulda gone with the (by then) ex member for Dickson. The rest will be calling for the Wahmbulance.

  17. Jones and Credlin need to get out of the Rupertarium now and again. both of them are convinced this EV thing will be YUUGE (in a bad way) for Labor.

  18. citizen:

    Shorten and Labor could have loads of fun with that tweet, as they have been having with McCrann’s column from yesterday 🙂

  19. Kate,
    My heart goes out to you. I was in a very similar situation to you when my late husband contracted Multiple Myeloma in his early 50s. I’d already left my job to care for my second child who was born with a congenital abnormality, so money became very tight overnight. As I always tell anyone who will listen, if it wasn’t for Medicare and Social Security, our family couldn’t have continued to live our lives with dignity.

    Only Labor cares about US.

  20. Tom the first and best @ 7:09 pm

    “https://www.pollbludger.net/2019/04/07/ipsos-53-47-labor-6/#comment-3120790

    States deciding on their own to issue Senate writs could get quite messy. Firstly, if they issue them on a day and the Commonwealth does not issue them that day, the close of rolls being fixed to the issuing of the writs, would mean the House of Reps could not have the same electoral roll as the Senate in the relevant state (meaning double rolls, even if they are on the same day).

    Secondly, states may decide on different days and thus prevent fully simultaneous elections.

    All in all, independent state decisions would increase the chances of a House and territories` senators only election later in the year, with Commonwealth Coalition blaming the state(s) and most other people blaming Morrison.”

    As I pointed out on Twitter in response to Antony Green’s tweet, “The AEC says on the record on its website (www.aec.gov.au/faqs/Elections.htm) that 18 May is the latest possible Senate election date. So the State governments would have a perfect right to take that at face value and issue writs by 15 April. In fact, they would be irresponsible not to.”

    The AEC may well have said in Senate estimates that they could cope with a later date, but that is more likely to reflect a basic position that they have to be able to manage whatever is thrown at them than a considered view overturning what’s on their website.

    To have Senate elections on 18 May, the writs would have to be issued by Monday 15 April. But the four Labor states could easily get together and announce this week that they will be issuing the writs on 15 April, so as to ensure that the election is held by the AEC’s latest possible date. That would then probably force the hand of the governments in Tasmania and South Australia, since even if the AEC could manage a nationwide Senate election on 25 May or even 1 June, it by no means follows that they could manage a Senate election split over two consecutive weekends in different parts of the country.

    Mr Morrison would then have to decide what to do. The sensible thing would be to realise he’d been outwitted, cut his losses, and go for a house election on 18 May. He would, of course, look like a goose. Otherwise, he would have two alternatives. (1) Have a House election shortly after 18 May, thereby infuriating most of the voters who aren’t already infuriated; or (2) Try to hang on until November, or until he loses a no-confidence motion in the House, whichever comes first.

  21. Since we have a new WB post for an Ipsos poll I’m wondering if that means there won’t be a Newspoll tonight. Either this Ipsos post is the entrée for a Newspoll post to come, or that this is it for tonight. Here’s hoping for a result tonight.

  22. EVs will become ubiquitous in the densely populated cities either as driverless cabs or personally owned ad will perfectly suit urban driving. within the next decade or two there will be continued advances in the technologies
    For long family and other trips internal combustion specialised vehicles will be hired to suit the short term need.

  23. Michael
    I agree. If the AEC has to rush the Senate count then there is more chance for a stuff up like WA last time. There is absolutely no justification to put that pressure on.

  24. Kate nailed it with her post on the previous thread, in relation to labor’s cancer announcement. This policy resonates with those who need it most, which is most of us. I was lucky with my own cancer treatment to be able to afford the out of pocket component of my treatment (close to 20k at last count but it got to the stage where I was sort of closing my eyes as the bills came in and didn’t really do a final tally ) but most people aren’t in this position and i can appreciate that.
    Beautifully put, great post Kate.

  25. “Has PPM ever served any useful purpose?”

    PPM is like presenting someone with two pieces of fruit and asking, which of these is the best orange?

    This shiny new apple, or this moldy stinking orange.

    It’s completely meaningless.

  26. BK
    Absolutely. It is a mistake to think new technology will mean the old paradigm holds. Most people will not care what the recharge time is as their cars will be sitting in their garages overnight, where they can be charged for the next days commute at the owners leasure.

  27. “#Ipsos Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 47 (-2) ALP 53 (+2) #auspol”

    Even a broken clock is right twice a day. Then again, with Labor primaries at 34 and Greens at 13, Ipsos isn’t even a broken clock.

    For the 4th time since the last election (or is it the 5th?) all I can say is Ipsos – go home, you’re drunk!

  28. So no budget bounce? Or the previous Ipsis was a rogue? Shocked I am!

    “It’s ideologically incoherent and they are to be whipped from pillar to post until they learn.”

    The LIbs and Nat’s have no ideology other than self interest. Running up debt to have tax giveaways to the wealthy while subsidising uneconomic privately owned mines and power plants is neither liberal nor conservative. It is nepotism.

    If Newspoll is out tonight I will say 54/46 to Labor.

  29. Roger Miller @ #86 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 5:51 pm

    Most people will not care what the recharge time is as their cars will be sitting in their garages overnight, where they can be charged for the next days commute at the owners leasure.

    Exactly. I charge both my mobiles overnight regardless of whether they need it, it’s just the most convenient time to do it as I don’t use my mobiles when I’m sleeping. Surely the principle is the same with a car that needs to be recharged – do it when you have no use for your vehicle.

  30. Late Riser @ #79 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 7:39 pm

    Since we have a new WB post for an Ipsos poll I’m wondering if that means there won’t be a Newspoll tonight. Either this Ipsos post is the entrée for a Newspoll post to come, or that this is it for tonight. Here’s hoping for a result tonight.

    Mr Bowe just said above us here that he would add the Newspoll as it became available.

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