Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor

Newspoll and Ipsos offer very mixed signals on the question of whether the government has enjoyed a rarely sighted “budget bounce”.

Two post-budget polls are in – Newspoll from The Australian, Ipsos for Nine Newspapers – and they offer contrasting pictures as to whether support for the government has gone up or down in the wake of last week’s budget.

Newspoll produces an encouraging result for the Coalition in showing Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, rather than 54-46. Ordinarily I would point out that a two-point movement from Newspoll is a rare occurrence, which close observers of the polling industry suspect is down to Newspoll smoothing its numbers with some variety of rolling average, in which the results of the previous poll are combined with those of the latest. However, the last Newspoll was, very unusually, four weeks ago, the delay being down to the New South Wales election a fortnight ago and a desire to hold off until the budget last week. So it would not surprise me if things were different this time, and the result was drawn entirely from this week’s survey, which will have been conducted from Thursday to Sunday (UPDATE: as indeed it was, from a sample of 1799).

The report currently up on The Australian’s website is a bit sketchy, but it tells us the Coalition is up two on the primary vote to 38% and Labor is down two to 37%, with One Nation down one to 6%. Scott Morrison’s approval rating is up three to 46% and Bill Shorten’s is up one to 37%, but there is no word yet on disapproval ratings, preferred prime minister, the Greens primary vote and the sample size. The report also rates the budget has scored the highest since the last Howard government budget in 2007 on impact on personal circumstances and cost of living. Stay tuned for further detail.

UPDATE: The Greens primary vote is steady at 9%; Morrison is down two on disapproval to 43%; Shorten is steady on disapproval at 51%; Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 43-36 to 46-35.

The post-budget Ipsos poll for Nine Newspapers, which is the first since mid-February, records an actual deterioration for the Coalition on the last since last time, albeit that that was an anomalously strong result for the Coalition (the one that had The Australian proclaiming “Morrison’s Tampa moment” across its front page headline). The two-party headline in the poll is 53-47 in favour of Labor, compared with 51-49 last time, which I’m guessing applies to both respondent-allocated and two-party preferred preference measures since the reports don’t specify. Ipsos’s primary votes are as usual on the low side for the major parties and well on the high side for the Greens: the Coalition are down a point to 37%, Labor is steady on 34% and the Greens are steady on 13%. If it might be thought odd that such small primary vote movement should produce a two-point shift on two-party preferred, it would appear that rounding favoured the Coalition last time and Labor this time.

On the budget, the poll finds 38% expecting they would be better off and 24% saying worse off, which is around the same as last year. Forty-one per cent thought it fair and 29% unfair. Leadership ratings are, as usual, more favourable from Ipsos than other pollsters, but otherwise notable in recording increased uncommitted ratings across the board. Scott Morrison records 48% approval and 38% disapproval, both down one from last time; Bill Shorten is is down four on approval to 36% and one on disapproval to 51%; and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister shifts from 48-38 to 46-35.

Reports on the poll, possibly paywalled, can be found at the Sydney Morning Herald and the Financial Review. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Saturday from a sample of 1200.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

944 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Labor; Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Melissa Parke

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-04-08/melissa-parke-selected-by-labor-in-julie-bishop-seat-of-curtin/10980598

    Notre Dame University political commentator Peter Kennedy said Ms Parke’s candidacy would force the Liberals to redirect campaign resources into retaining the seat, which the party holds by a margin of more than 20 per cent.
    :::
    Mr Kennedy said he expected Labor would seek to strike a preference deal with the independent candidate for Curtin, Louise Stewart.

    “If they can do a preference deal and have those preferences secure, then it could provide a close finish,” he said.

    But Mr Kennedy said Labor running a high-profile candidate could diminish Ms Stewart’s chances of finishing second.

    “You could find that the two challengers could perhaps cruel each others’ chances to oust Celia Hammond, but I guess that remains to be seen,” he said.

    https://www.sbs.com.au/news/former-labor-minister-will-contest-curtin

    “Curtin electors deserve the opportunity to vote for a progressive person who believes in action on climate change, marriage equality, support for the ABC, science, the arts, animal welfare & good governance,” Ms Parke posted on Twitter.

    In her final speech to parliament in 2016, she criticised Labor’s offshore detention policy, labelling it a “festering wound”.

  2. https://thewest.com.au/politics/federal-election-2019/why-labor-plans-to-run-star-candidate-melissa-park-in-unwinnable-seat-of-curtin-ng-b881161563z

    Labor insiders do not believe star Curtin candidate Melissa Parke will be able to win the seat, but are aiming to embarrass the Liberals in their safest WA electorate.

    With independent Louise Stewart also running in the seat and the Greens hoping to increase their margin, Labor are hoping Ms Parke’s high profile will be enough to force the Liberals to divert resources to Curtin that would have gone to marginal seats and cause some chaos in the electorate.

    With one of the highest yes votes in the country Curtin has been likened to NSW seats Wentworth which was snatched from the Liberals by independent Dr Kerryn Phelps and Warringah where independent Zali Steggall is ahead of Tony Abbott in the polls.

    Polling conducted by the ALP in the electorate earlier in the year before Julie Bishop announced she was retiring show voters rate the environment their most important issue.

  3. a r @3:09
    But that seems like it’s actually less of a good thing and more of a status-quo thing. If we can automate the shit out of basically everything now, why should anyone feel compelled to work for any reason other than “because they want to”?

    Nicholas thinks unemployment is bad, which is why he prefers a job guarantee to a UBI. My view is that a UBI would mean people could do what they actually wanted to do. We could all be nobs with robots “downstairs” 🙂

  4. That list of Victorian Senators up for re-election is quite depressing.

    Victoria
    James Paterson
    Jane Hume
    Raff Ciccone
    Gavin Marshall
    Janet Rice
    Derryn Hinch

    I’d personally like to lose at least Hinch, Paterson and Hume.

  5. Pegasus

    How can anybody be confident that the “right” decision can be made when Madam “Miner” Melissa holds the power. 🙁

  6. Sceptic @ #692 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 3:56 pm

    Penny Wong:

    “Is this really the best you can do, ‘don’t vote for Bill Shorten because he is going to take your ute’?”

    The next Coalition attack add will be a clip of Penny Wong saying “don’t vote for Bill Shorten because he is going to take your ute” over and over while scary background music plays and a serious-sounding narrator talks about how Labor wants to take away everyone’s car.

  7. ‘booleanbach says:
    Monday, April 8, 2019 at 2:36 pm

    QRA.
    I am not sure that i need to know this – and wonder if it is just as likely in the southern hemisphere:
    https://www.opednews.com/articles/Something-new-to-worry-abo-by-Robert-Adler-2012_Climate_Climate-Change_Climate-Modeling-190407-596.html

    Thanks. The Northern Hemisphere ‘loops’ have been of particular interest to me for some time. I don’t believe the same phenomenum happens to the same extent in the Southern Hemisphere.

    At one stage it was thought that the wind speed in the circumpolar vortex had speeded up and ‘tightened up’ in the sense of moving (South) polewards. The corresponding changes were that Southern Ocean low and high pressure bands also moved south. (One indicator for drought in our Mediterranean climate systems is High Pressure systems so far south and Low Pressure systems so far south that rain-bearing fronts no longer hit southern australia).
    Possibly the key change in the Southern Hemisphere has been changes to the temperature differential between a warming ocean and a continent that is still largely below zero for most of the time.
    I am not sure about any of the above except to say that I would be confident that (apart from polar amplification) the dynamics are different between the hemispheres because the Arctic is largely land-bound and the Antarctic is largely ocean-bound.

  8. The Vision Thing: 20,000,000 Australian adults all posting on Bludger 24/7 while on the UBI because we have nothing better to do.

  9. Newstart

    http://www.eurekastreet.com.au/article/budget-2019-20-and-the-way-forward-for-welfare

    Despite that, neither party made any significant move to address the problem. It could be argued that the most forgotten group in last week’s budget speeches was the 722,000 people on Newstart.
    :::
    That’s why a proposal to take decisions around welfare payments out of politicians’ hands is the best way forward. If the major parties are going to put supporting the most vulnerable in the ‘too hard’ basket or kick the can down the road, let an independent commission determine the rates at which various welfare payments can allow people to live a dignified life.
    :::
    Tax cuts over the next four years, offered in fairly equal measure by the two parties, are nice and have the potential to support struggling working families. But the people who need the most support are people who don’t have a job, so what good is a tax cut to them?

    Addressing cost-of-living pressures is important and tax cuts will help. But it’s not enough if you are a single income earner trying to raise your children, or if you are unemployed and forced to live on Newstart.

    In the coming weeks, the challenge for every political party is to offer the Australian nation a vision of social and economic inclusion where the inherent dignity and potential of each person can be realised. Maintaining the dignity of individuals and families must be the bedrock of our social and economic policies and of the highest policy priority for every government.

  10. Question @ #704 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 4:22 pm

    But that seems like it’s actually less of a good thing and more of a status-quo thing. If we can automate the shit out of basically everything now, why should anyone feel compelled to work for any reason other than “because they want to”?

    Nicholas thinks unemployment is bad, which is why he prefers a job guarantee to a UBI. My view is that a UBI would mean people could do what they actually wanted to do. We could all be knobs with robots “downstairs” 🙂

    …until the revolution. (/sarc)

    I’m reading a marvellous book “At Home” by Bill Bryson, in which he describes the life of a vicar in the early 1800s, and the amazing things that these comfortably off people added to the world. “Though no one intended it, the effect was to create a class of well-educated, wealthy people who had immense amounts of time on their hands.” He lists a few and their achievements, but for the PB crowd perhaps Bayes (Bayes’s Theorem) might strike a chord.

    It might give a hint of the world if we all had “robots downstairs”. (Having solved all those other pesky problems, like global warming, overpopulation…)

  11. From today’s Crikey email Morrison’s taxpayer funded advertising is much worse when you look at who benefits.

    Voters assume politicians and political parties are the main beneficiaries of political advertising. The mainstream media is content to let them think that. But it’s not true — the media is the main beneficiary of that advertising spend. For a desperate industry that is struggling for every dollar, government advertising — by one estimate, a quarter of a billion dollars by the Commonwealth since January 2018 — is a key source of revenue; last week, marketing industry site Mumbrella reported that government and election advertising were about the only bright spots in a bleak landscape for advertising revenue. With “the softest advertising demand in almost 10 years”, even an extra $5 million is some handy pocket money for the media.

    So two big winners from Morrison’s dithering about the election will be the Murdochs and Kerry Stokes. Both are politically engaged Liberal Party supporters, and both regularly provide platforms for right-wing extremists in their media outlets. The other big winner is Nine — chaired, of course, by senior Liberal figure Peter Costello — which has a former Liberal staffer running its major papers and which owns over half of the Liberal Party propaganda outlet 2GB in Sydney.

    So Rupert and Lachlan, Kerry and Peter all say thank you, taxpayers. The Murdochs, of course, are particularly grateful since their company is one of Australia’s worst tax dodgers.

  12. L R @ 4:32.

    I am also an optimist about the potential (until the robots revolt). The main problem with unemployment is the way it limits potential.

    The pessimistic side is that robots require capital, so it could very easily increase the divide between the haves and have-nots. A UBI, paid for by some kind of tax on the use of robots for profit might fix this. I am open to any solutions.

  13. Late Riser @ #714 Monday, April 8th, 2019 – 4:32 pm

    It might give a hint of the world if we all had “robots downstairs”. (Having solved all those other pesky problems, like global warming, overpopulation…)

    The robots can solve those for us. I imagine their solution for overpopulation may be difficult to survive.

  14. BW at 4:33 pm

    That must explain why I have just been doing some cursory lurking of late 🙂

    hurry up and boil.

    And regarding the PB effect of a UBI, WB would need to hire some robot moderators 🙂

  15. Confessions

    government advertising — by one estimate, a quarter of a billion dollars by the Commonwealth since January 2018 — is a key source of revenue;

    Huh. That is a giant strategic weakness in their business model that an alienated incoming government would not ignore, surely.

  16. I think everyone on here already knows this, but it bears repeating. There are two main reasons in Morrison’s head for dragging out calling the election:

    First and foremost is that Morrison, as anyone who’s had the misfortune to work with him will tell you, honestly thinks he is a tactical genius and tells you that fairly regularly. He is convinced people actually buy his branding himself as “ScoMo” and scoffing pies at the footy, then saying that Shorten will steal their V8 Commodores and cancel the weekend as showing he’s a real working class bogan like them (which is surely the most pretentious act ever undertaken by a PM). In spite of all evidence and past history of enormous blunders, he is genuinely convinced he’ll pull something out of his sleeve to put them in front before having to set the date. He has no idea what, but he likes to remind staff that he has God on his side.

    Second is that they’re desperate to get Adani approved before going into caretaker mode.

    Reason 1 is based in utter stupidity, but reason 2 in malice.

  17. The robots can solve those for us. I imagine their solution for overpopulation may be difficult to survive.

    Very funny 🙂

    Stephen Hawking on a Q&A of wealth distribution and AI

    Answer:
    A: You’re right: media often misrepresent what is actually said. The real risk with AI isn’t malice but competence. A superintelligent AI will be extremely good at accomplishing its goals, and if those goals aren’t aligned with ours, we’re in trouble. You’re probably not an evil ant-hater who steps on ants out of malice, but if you’re in charge of a hydroelectric green energy project and there’s an anthill in the region to be flooded, too bad for the ants. Let’s not place humanity in the position of those ants. Please encourage your students to think not only about how to create AI, but also about how to ensure its beneficial use.
    https://www.zmescience.com/ecology/world-problems/stephen-hawking-you-should-support-wealth-redistribution/

  18. Booleanbach: “Anyone know why they build robots with 5 fingers”

    Except for ‘LibBots’ – they have only two fingers ‘cause that’s all they need!

  19. Bless the government for my one-off $75 energy payment. Now I can use it to pay the 3% increase in my power bill about which I’ve just been advised. Pity the 3% will increase further but the $75 won’t be repeated. Oh and thanks for the very generous 0.8% increase in my pension. Now I can afford that EV I’ll need to buy when nasty Mr Shorten takes away my Honda.

  20. The wisdom of The Cormannator I’m sure it makes sense to the 2GB demographic…..:Headscratch:
    .
    .
    Finance Minister Mathias Cormann on Labor’s electric car target: “I like ice cream. And I buy ice cream. But I’m not proposing a law that 50 per cent of everybody’s food has to be ice cream.” #auspol #estimates

    — Michael Koziol (@michaelkoziol) April 8, 2019

  21. Nicholas thinks unemployment is bad, which is why he prefers a job guarantee to a UBI.

    Involuntary unemployment isn’t merely bad – it is a devastating social ill. It contributes to many other social problems – family break-down, substance addiction, physical and mental ill health, anti-social behaviour, crime.

    It is also very inefficient from an economic point of view for a society to lose the output of a person who wants to contribute.

    If somebody wants to be working, but nobody will offer them a job, the currency issuer can and should stand at the ready to fund a living wage job for that person. Local communities can decide what kinds of jobs would care for the community and care for the planet. Cooperatives, NGOs, not-for-profit social enterprises, and local governments can be the employers of JG workers. We can and should widen the definition of a paid job, with a strong focus on caring work, the arts and culture, and ecological sustainability.

    A UBI is not macroeconomically stable. It has no price anchor. No inflation control built into it. And by itself it would not eradicate involuntary unemployment. A UBI would provide conservatives with an excuse to gut social programs. That is why so many CEOs love the idea of a UBI.

    A JG does not just widen the definition of paid work and make paid work much more fulfilling and interesting and focused on community and ecological wellbeing. A JG is also an automatic stabilizer that ensures genuine full employment and price stability at all times. Macroeconomically, a JG would be extremely valuable.

  22. I like ice cream. And I buy ice cream. But I’m not proposing a law that 50 per cent of everybody’s food has to be ice cream.

    WTF?
    I like cars. I buy cars. Shorten is proposing incentives so that 50% of new cars should be…. cars. So lock up your daughters, hide your grannies cat, protect your VB and your footy because he is a big scary monster who is out to get you.

    I have found a photo of the Coalition base that this scare campaign is targeting…..

  23. I think what you say is true in many ways Nicholas, but as A R (a r) said, it also sounds a bit status-quo. I think AI will transform many of our current ways of thinking. I don’t pretend to know how it will end up, but I enjoy the conjecture.

  24. Antony Green maaaaybe suggesting shenanigans. Since the AEC’s advice on the last possible date being 18 May was removed from its website.

    Gives a bit of arse coverage in the event Morrison is seriously considering 25 May.

  25. Gives a bit of arse coverage in the event Morrison is seriously considering 25 May.

    Give me strength. I’m not sure I can endure much more of the pain. I even laughed when I saw Peg’s post about tonight’s Q&A.

  26. Finance Minister Mathias Cormann on Labor’s electric car target: “I like ice cream. And I buy ice cream. But I’m not proposing a law that 50 per cent of everybody’s food has to be ice cream.” #auspol #estimates
    ____________________________________________

    That’s an appalling analogy. Only an idiot would see that a car as a mode of transport and ice cream as a kind of food are analogous. Cormann obviously talking to his base then.

  27. Election advertising in the comfortably off suburbs. (Brisbane)

    This landed on our drive way today. The man in the photo knocked out a sitting liberal MP (Prentice) in preselection. He is currently a member of the “ruling” Brisbane City Council, as Prentice was before him.

  28. Confessions (Kingswood Country): “You’re not taking the Kingswood”

    Fantastic – we can now l0ok forward to Mr Morrison shammying the nation’s dipsticks on live television; and at our expense.

    Is there no asininity to which the man will not sink?

  29. A generalized comment to people wondering about the ALP campaign in Bennelong and the promoting of Professor Brian Owler. *

    In the part of the electorate in which I live there has to date been no profile raising/make people aware type activity at all (to my knowledge, any way). Admittedly this part of the electorate returns votes to the Liberals on (roughly) a 2: 1 ratio, so it is possible that more activity is happening in some other sections.

    *Question without notice to medicos on PB: Does the tradition of referring to surgeons as “Mr”rather than “Dr” still hold in Australia? Wasn’t sure, hence the title I gave him.

  30. All that advertising money going to LNP associated entities;who will no doubt make quite large donations to the LNP. Seems like the electorate & their taxes are funding the Liberals.

  31. Ladbrokes now have the coalition out to $5.00 after having them at $4.00 for a couple of weeks. Obviously they aren’t buying the bullshit in the Australian about the Libs making a comeback.

  32. The libs/nats electric car attack has turn out to be the biggest bite you on the backside blunder in politics , Morrison probably wish he had the guts to ignore the newsltd/corp hacks and called the election yesterday.

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