Another night before Christmas

Doubts the election is quite as imminent as all that, and a slightly dated poll result showing business as usual pre-budget.

Or maybe seven nights. According to Anthony Galloway of the Herald Sun, “speculation intensified yesterday about whether Mr Morrison will call the election tomorrow for May 11, or wait until the end of next week for a May 18 poll”. The latter would suit me better, if he’s reading. Liberal sources say the Prime Minister might be considering holding off “in the hope of a poll bounce after this week’s Budget”, which would be optimistic of him.

Also in the paper today is a rather unusual bit of opinion polling from YouGov Galaxy, which was conducted pre-budget – last Monday to Thursday, to be precise – from a large sample of 2224. The interesting bit is that Labor leads 53-47 on two-party preferred, discouraging the notion that the New South Wales election might have changed anything. However, the larger purpose of the exercise is to burrow down into voters’ perceptions of the party leaders, taken to include Pauline Hanson and Clive Palmer as well as the usual suspects. I don’t find this stuff particularly interesting myself, but there’s a lot of detail in the report linked to above, if you can access it.

UPDATE: The poll appeared not to provide the usual forced response follow-up for the initially undecided on voting intention, thus includes an undistributed 8% “don’t know”. The remainder went Labor 34%, Coalition 33%, Greens 9%, One Nation 8%, United Australia Party 3% and Australian Conservatives 2%. Excluding the don’t know component, this becomes Labor 37%, Coalition 36%, Greens 10% and One Nation 9%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,277 comments on “Another night before Christmas”

Comments Page 17 of 26
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  2. So ignorance rules for some when commenting on Shorten’s EV aims.

    Seems Lib talking-heads, both official and not, don’t do their homework before spouting crap … quelle surprise

  3. jenauthor @ #796 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 8:56 am

    So ignorance rules for some when commenting on Shorten’s EV aims.

    Seems Lib talking-heads, both official and not, don’t do their homework before spouting crap … quelle surprise

    They will do whatever it takes to take the wind out of the tyres of Labor’s EV announcement.
    *purposefully mixed metaphor* 🙂

  5. nath @ #753 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 7:40 am

    Since Shorten was referring to the situation in 10 years time 8 to 10 minutes is almost a certainty.
    ________________
    Nah. he was asked how long it takes to charge the car he’s currently driving. Anyway I don’t care. All it shows is that Shorten doesn’t charge it, he probably has one of these red shirt droogs do it for him. who cares.

    Those who you malign as “red shirt droogs” are ordinary ALP members, union members or ALP supporters. Some on here are well aware of that because, like me, they are among them.
    When are you going to stop lying and disparaging decent people?

  7. Quoll
    Would you class yourself as a pragmatic Greens environmentalist, suffering from false consciousness, who wants to contribute to saving the environment or do you see yourself as a doctrinaire red extremist who is abusing concerns about the environment in order to deliver the Revolution?

  8. Kohler is setting up an excuse for Morrison … i.e. “we wanted to lose this time”

    Utter crap – they are facing the inevitable and want to save some face.

  9. Just watched Speers.
    The mood appeared to be sullen resentment on the part of the hacks along with some sort of wishful thinking that the tax agenda might save some of the furniture.

  12. The Kohler article is, as usual, well worth a read. In particular, the following two paras provide some context for assessing forecast budget surpluses:

    ‘In his National Press Club speech this week, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said: “We are delivering a surplus. In 2019-20, the surplus is $7.1 billion. Over the forward estimates, surpluses will be $45bn.”

    Yeah, right. Over the past 10 years, the average difference between the budget forecast and the final budget outcome, published three months after the end of each fiscal year, has been $12.76bn.’

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/economics/coalition-sounds-bugle-for-a-dignified-retreat/news-story/036b426a2fb76101f6cabede8ccbc7d9

  13. ‘BK says:
    Sunday, April 7, 2019 at 9:03 am

    Boerwar
    I did not at all warm to the woman from The Australian on Speers.’

    Me neither. In my case I dare say she would not care much for me, either.

  14. My biggest concern with the election is that the coalition and Murdoch together will be successful in dropping the last five years down the memory hole. If the whole of the next six week is taken up with Who’s Got The Biggest Barrel O’ Pork then Labor might just find itself with not much of a majority at all.

    How can people forget what an atrocious and unfit rabble the Coalition is. Worst. Government. Ever. Chaotic, undisciplined, venal, glass-jawed, cynical, hyperpartisan, incompetent, spiv-tastic, nepotistic, with a nasty taste for the authoritarian.

    The Great Barrier Reef slush fund. Sooling the Feds on serving Senators. Unaccountable cash splashes to Murdoch. Setting Border Force onto the streets of Melbourne for a headline. It’s OK to be white. The Jerusalem Embassy brain fart. Barnaby Joyce. The 2014 Budget. Michaela Cash. Penalty rates. Strongarming the ABC. Whiteanting the APS. Bronwyn Bishop. The submarine contract fiasco. Angus ‘Bigus Stickus’ Taylor. The Murray Darling cotton cornucopia corruptorama. Dyson’s Haydon’s Most Bullsh*t Royal Commission Ever. Defending the banks to the end. Defending George Pell ever. Using the parliamentary inquiry into franking credits to spruik for money on the taxpayers dime. The Centrelink Robodebt inhumanity. Just deciding to stop Parliament cos you need to spend important time f*cking up a leadership spill. Greg ‘Yorick’ Hunt. Gutting the NDIS. Sir Prince Phillip. The marriage equality plebishite. Stacking every government board, instrumentality, commission, tribunal possible with your droogs. Zed Seselja. The ideological crusade against renewables. Reopening Christmas Island for a $180m photo op. Playing footsies with them proper fascists in One Nation. Harrassing Sarah Hanson Young for prying into offshore detention. Alan Tudge using private social security records to smear a whistleblower. Bringing coal into Parliament. The so-called ‘women’ (read men) problem. Heavying SBS into sacking Scott Mcintyre for daring to question the sacredness of Anzac day. The NBN omnishambles. NEG/Big Stick/energy cash handout/whatever energy non-policy arse gravy has dribbled out lately.

    How the living zombie jesus is this not the story?

  15. An odd statement about ScoMo from the LNP candidate in Townsville. It doesn’t matter if ScoMo lies!!!

    “He sat in the pub, had a beer and spoke with people. He answered every question – it didn’t matter if some of them were wrong, which they were. He is a phenomenal leader, he is the only way this country will go in the right direction.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/diabolically-bad-poll-abbott-facing-12-per-cent-swing-to-lose-seat-20190406-p51bhg.html

  16. I posted a few days ago that I thought the EV announcement at the front and centre of climate change policy by labor was very interesting.

    I believe there will be a lot more to come during the campaign on this and it would not surprise if a lot of work has been done and discussions held with some astute entrepreneurs to develop a EV industry here in Australia.

    Kim Carr has been a huge supporter of a re born car manufacturing industry and I did note Shorten made mention of this in his budget reply. It floated under the radar at the time but it was a interesting statement.

    Anyway, I could be simply blowing wind but we shall see.

  19. Andrew_Earlwood @ #771 Sunday, April 7th, 2019 – 8:17 am

    When I join the EV revolution – probably in 18 months to two years time when I turn over my current car fleet – it will likely be via a plug hybrid with a pure EV range of approx 60 -100km (more than enough for my day to day driving needs). I’m hoping to acquire a 15MWH powerwall for around $4-6K by then (about half their current cost) and will add another 12-20 solar panels onto the roof (I currently have 21). That way I’ll be able to recharge overnight on trickle charge and never have to use a commercial charge station and also be self sufficient for at least 80% of my domestic power needs. I hope. That’s the plan anyway.

    21 panels already? What do your do with all that power? Running a hydrophonics dope farm indoors under bright lights?

  22. Doyley – Shorten knew a lot about EV and especially the Australian part in the world’s best charging stations. Contrary to the misinformation programs of some (esp here) ALP does do homework, researches these things fully before making announcements. Shorten talked about establish a countrywide network of charging stations to facilitate EV growth.

  28. ““He sat in the pub, had a beer and spoke with people. He answered every question – it didn’t matter if some of them were wrong, which they were. He is a phenomenal leader, he is the only way this country will go in the right direction.””

    Such a transparent longing for a great white leader to lead the tribe out of the wilderness into which their manufactured belief in the efficacy of selfishness and greed to produce wealth has led them.

    Such lazy and stupid people to be looking for a leader when a team of good people who do believe there is such a thing as society, co-operate with a clear aim to make our society a better place for all of us not just those who can and do take advantage of the less able people.

  29. Geetroit

    How can people forget what an atrocious and unfit rabble the Coalition is. Worst. Government. Ever. Chaotic, undisciplined, venal, glass-jawed, cynical, hyperpartisan, incompetent, spiv-tastic, nepotistic, with a nasty taste for the authoritarian.

    There is a thing we call “wilful ignorance”, you make a good case for “wilful incompetence”.

  35. “C@tmomma@8:01am and Lizzie
    So you can charge a EV in 8 minutes? Who knew that? ”

    If the EV’s range was 400km and it still had say 150km left on the battery then 8-10 minutes at a fast charge station would probably top it up to full quite easily.

    If the battery was 100% depleted it would probably take 15 minutes to totally recharge.

  36. Cassidy not letting Josh divert off from his question. Compare and contrast with the person who hosted last week, where he simply ran through his list of questions.

  37. jenauthor,

    Exactly.

    Perhaps more will be announced around increased targeted investment in manufacturing EV infrastructure locally and perhaps even EV manufacturing locally as well.

    I do not think that the EV announcement was a one off.

  40. jenauthor:

    Apparently security guards eventually let them into the game, but they were told they weren’t allowed to go down to the front where Abbott supporters were, presumably to keep them out of the pan of cameras.

  48. Cheryl Kernot@cheryl_kernot
    16m16 minutes ago
    Morrison has the gall to say “you will pay for it” about Labor while he & his ministers spend $600,000 a day of our money. #insiders

  49. Josh bagging ‘the baristas in Batman’, and now answering every question now with ALP, Bill Shorten.. ‘don’t buy the curtains yet’

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