The night before Christmas

There is no polling to report, and I have my head buried too deep in my forthcoming federal election to report anything of substance on my own account. But with the announcement of the election universally anticipated on the weekend for either May 11 or May 18, a new open thread is very much in order, so here it is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

801 comments on “The night before Christmas”

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  1. For me, one of the most important parts of Shorten’s speech was the revival of TAFE and the proposed training of aged care workers and others where there is a shortage. Not only would this provide employment for many now on the “dole”, it would also obviate the need to bring in more temporary workers from overseas.

    I’m too morning-sleepy to go into the details, but I think it would bring more balance to the popn.

  2. “Of course it’s not much of a surprise perhaps that a man with the intellectual range of a used car salesman has Napoleon as his hero. “

    Napoleon is Scott Morrison’s hero?

  3. nath @ #46 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 8:18 am

    C@t I thought you were the soul of working class Sydney. Something about Golden Grove. Yet you portray your parents as quite wealthy. Seems a bit odd.

    No, it’s all true. Obviously they worked harder than you to get what they’ve now got. The early experiences of their lives, both from very poor and disadvantaged families you could never even conceive of, shaped their work and thrift ethic. But trust you to cast aspersions at them and through them at me.

    You really must be upset at the success last night of Bill Shorten’s Budget-In-Reply speech. You’re up earlier with the vitriol than usual. And lashing out in all directions.

    Sad.

  4. Just on public hospitals in Melbourne. Last year I had an operation, pre and post surgery I had a room of my own with an ensuite. Rehab was available but I didn’t really need it as I rebounded like a champion. the food was awful, but I was having meals brought in most days. 10/10.

  5. I thought Sales’ last question to Shorten was valid and asked as politely as would seem possible. I can’t say I stand eavesdropping at every watercooler and barbecue in Australia but his personal popularity is actually something you do hear mentioned, and something that is material to the dynamics of the campaign.

    It actually gave him an opportunity to do what so many here always call for and that is to promote the unity of Labor in comparison to the other side, and deprecate personality politics. Sometimes I think people underestimate the value of am eloquent response to a tough question.

  6. C@t

    As long as Shorten and Labor deliver best outcomes for us, and conduct themselves in a respectful manner. That’s all I’m interested in.
    Nath can rant and rave. It is hilarious actually.

  7. Dennis Atkins
    @ScottMorrisonMP would be a dill to wait a week to announce the election. A week of estimates too dangerous for the government. Public want the election held yesterday. They’ll go nuts if they have to wait to suit the LNP. Waiting is dumb, so they might do it

  8. Steve777
    says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 8:26 am
    “Of course it’s not much of a surprise perhaps that a man with the intellectual range of a used car salesman has Napoleon as his hero. “
    Napoleon is Scott Morrison’s hero?
    ___________________
    Probably!

  9. C@tmomma @ #41 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 5:16 am

    grimace,
    Wembley Private Hospital is where I stayed. Plus my mum used to work for Ramsay Health on the North Shore of Sydney. This also is our local Private Hospital:

    http://brisbanewatersprivate.com.au/patients/your-stay

    I seem to have left out the hairdresser. 🙂

    I had a few nights at Bethesda in Claremont when I had shoulder surgery. What I wanted was a single room overlooking Freshwater Bay, what got was a shared room facing north overlooking a lower level roof and a large brick wall.

  10. The plot thickens on the Mueller report.

    There is certainly something to be said for setting the terms of the debate. If people have processed that the report doesn’t accuse Trump of crimes, perhaps they’ll look at even highly questionable behavior and simply conclude, “Well, they didn’t say it was a crime.”

    But there is also something to be said for setting expectations low. Generally speaking, before a big reveal, you want to lower expectations so that it looks like good news for you. There is a very credible case to be made that the Trump team setting the bar at “complete and total EXONERATION” could make the ultimate report look especially bad for him.

    The message from Mueller’s team, whether deliberate, seems to be: Stay tuned, and be wary of William Barr.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/04/04/plot-just-thickened-mueller-report/?utm_term=.8643a3e94ae9

  11. One can admire a general’s tactics without admiring the individual. Nath’s determination to disrespect Mr Shorten verges on paranoia.

  12. zoomster
    says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 8:32 am
    ..or Napoleon is just a fascinating historical figure. Which he is.
    ____________________________
    Hmmm. He certainly killed more people than anyone else in Europe before the 20th century. Of course the atrocities his troops committed in Spain provoked Goya’s classic painting:

  13. nath @ #57 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 8:29 am

    No aspersions were cast. So your parents were poor and became wealthy. So you grew up in a wealthy household. ok

    Again you are completely wrong. I grew up in a lower middle class household because my parents were saving for their own house and then paying it off as well as funding their own Super funds before it was legislated by Labor. We lived with my grand uncle after my great grandmother died, in a semi-detached, single story terrace in Stanmore when it was still a semi-industrial area and very down at heal before the gentrifiers moved in. I lived there for all of my high school years. We moved there after living in a tiny flat in Ashfield during my Primary School years, after my mother ran away from her abusive husband with her 2 kids and after she met her 2nd husband. We lived there while he was still in the Navy, as a cook and until we moved to Stanmore. Plus, Public Schools all the way, in case you were going to try and throw the Private School educated line at me.

    So, I would like it if you didn’t keep trying to characterise my life to suit your narrative. It’s offensive.

  14. Van Badham

    53s53 seconds ago

    In a Liberal-National government of crooks, clowns, spivs and non-entities, minister Melissa Price (@Melissa4Durack) deserves some recognition for a consistent personal showcase demonstrating that one really can be all four. #auspol

  15. Update on Campbellfield fire.

    It is out of control and adjoining factories are impacted.

    My OH left the area an hour ago now.

    It is a shit show

  16. “Hmmm. He certainly killed more people than anyone else in Europe before the 20th century.”

    Hmmm. I reckon there could be other candidates for that title. Worth a bit of research. I’ll report back.

  17. C@tmomma @ #41 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 5:16 am

    grimace,
    Wembley Private Hospital is where I stayed. Plus my mum used to work for Ramsay Health on the North Shore of Sydney. This also is our local Private Hospital:

    http://brisbanewatersprivate.com.au/patients/your-stay

    I seem to have left out the hairdresser. 🙂

    A question for the more learned and worldly bludgers here, as I’m clearly missing something.

    How does one be simultaneously have a problem sufficiently bad to be admitted to hospital and be kept ther yet be healthy enough to enjoy things such as high quality meals, a hair dresser, podiatry and the wonders of Wi-Fi?

  18. Shorten has Napoleon Crossing the Alps hanging in his office. A paen to propaganda, egomania and the pursuit of power. I would much rather he have Goya’s painting hanging.

  19. grimace @ #82 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 8:43 am

    C@tmomma @ #41 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 5:16 am

    grimace,
    Wembley Private Hospital is where I stayed. Plus my mum used to work for Ramsay Health on the North Shore of Sydney. This also is our local Private Hospital:

    http://brisbanewatersprivate.com.au/patients/your-stay

    I seem to have left out the hairdresser. 🙂

    A question for the more learned and worldly bludgers here, as I’m clearly missing something.

    How does one be simultaneously have a problem sufficiently bad to be admitted to hospital and be kept ther yet be healthy enough to enjoy things such as high quality meals, a hair dresser, podiatry and the wonders of Wi-Fi?

    Cosmetic Surgery. 🙂

    Also, my mum has had her cataracts done recently and had a breast removal. Nowhere near her scalp or her feet. 🙂

  20. I think any discussion of leaders on the basis of liking them is spurious and ignore the reality that likening a leader is not a major factor in good leadership.
    I maintain that respect is the biggest driver of leadership ability and at the Federal level Scott Morrison fails the test brilliantly.
    Bill may or may not be liked but the ‘kill Bill’ campaign and just the way he goes about his job in an era of toxic political banter and severe media bias (yes, that’s what it is) , he has earned my respect.

  21. nath

    Perhaps Shorten has it there as a permanent reminder to not fall into ‘egomania’ etc, a reminder of where it leads to ?

  22. Yes, and enough of being led up the garden path about Bill Shorten by you know who.

    I prefer to discuss policy and not the supposed personal foibles of Labor’s leader.

  23. “Ceaser killed a lot.

    Didn’t he boast that he killed a third of the Gauls and enslaved another third?”

    Caesar is an obvious candidate. So is Attila (although his deprivations were subject to gross propaganda). Marius played quite a captain’s knock – erasing the Cimbri and Teutons from history (although most ended up as slaves).

  24. poroti
    says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 8:50 am
    nath
    Perhaps Shorten has it there as a permanent reminder to not fall into ‘egomania’ etc, a reminder of where it leads to ?
    _________________________________
    I doubt it. Napoleon is his hero apparently. Goya’s work would be a better reminder of where that leads to. Hanging ‘Napoleon Crossing the Alps’ for that purpose seems a little too ironic for our Bill.

  25. Why anyone would take any notice of anything posted by this nath idiot has me amazed.

    nath is the PB equivalent of one of those zoo chimps, probably driven mad by confinement, who furiously masturbate in front of tourists.

  26. Cracking budget reply. The cancer plan is a winner I reckon – as is knocking back the higher income tax cuts

    Tories are busted. Victory is nigh.

  27. Vic:

    Yes, with Mueller’s report it is looking exactly like what some of us were suspicious of. Barr’s summary tells only enough of the story that enables Trump to carry on as if he’s been exonerated without mentioning the other stuff about obstruction and so on. No wonder Team Mueller are pissed.

  28. I think lots of people are interested in the Napoleonic wars because it was the last time in Western history that men dressed extravagantly.

    It was followed by the dour Victorian period. 🙂

  29. Well, if all nath’s got after the Budget reply is that Shorten has a non-nath approved painting hanging in his office, Shorten did very well.

  30. grimace @ #77 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 8:43 am




    A question for the more learned and worldly bludgers here, as I’m clearly missing something.

    How does one be simultaneously have a problem sufficiently bad to be admitted to hospital and be kept ther yet be healthy enough to enjoy things such as high quality meals, a hair dresser, podiatry and the wonders of Wi-Fi?

    Excellent question. Whenever I have had the occasion to be admitted to a (public) hospital – when the circumstances arise that I can be interested in the items mentioned above – then it’s obviously time to ask the staff –

    What time today will I be discharged ❓

    Over and out. ☮☕

  31. Confessions @ #100 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 8:55 am

    Vic:

    Yes, with Mueller’s report it is looking exactly like what some of us were suspicious of. Barr’s summary tells only enough of the story that enables Trump to carry on as if he’s been exonerated without mentioning the other stuff about obstruction and so on. No wonder Team Mueller are pissed.

    And the Repugs are well known for taking half a sentence and publishing it without the other half of the same sentence that completely changes its meaning, in order to craft a way to ‘exonerate’ themselves.

  32. How does one be simultaneously have a problem sufficiently bad to be admitted to hospital and be kept ther yet be healthy enough to enjoy things such as high quality meals, a hair dresser, podiatry and the wonders of Wi-Fi?

    When I was in hospital for that week the times I was awake enough to be able to watch the TV all I wanted to do was walk the halls to prove to the nurses I was recovered enough to be able to go home.

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