The night before Christmas

There is no polling to report, and I have my head buried too deep in my forthcoming federal election to report anything of substance on my own account. But with the announcement of the election universally anticipated on the weekend for either May 11 or May 18, a new open thread is very much in order, so here it is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

801 comments on “The night before Christmas”

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  1. It allows a narrative however that under Labor we will pay more tax

    And it behoves every one of us who knows what our taxes pay for to tell every one else they know who may not have made the connection between Taxes, Revenue and Services.

  2. Observer @ #698 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 8:45 pm

    Macfarlane was charged by Turnbull to negotiate a Carbon Price outcome with Wong

    When broad agreement was reached along came Minchin, just in the nick of time, installing the “Climate change is crap” Abbott

    And look what he is doing today

    On the Coalition tax pitch there will be a demographic with the opinion Labor is pinching their relief from paying tax – no matter that the relief is 5 years into the future

    It allows a narrative however that under Labor we will pay more tax

    Labor should have chosen to deal with the Greens rather than the Libs.

    Labor paid a steep electoral price for that howler of a decision.

  3. Tasmanian Conservation Trust on Burke’s refusal of Tarkine heritage listing:

    http://www.tasconservation.org.au/tas-conservationist/2013/3/18/tarkine-national-heritage-listing

    The decision by Tony Burke not to list the vast majority of the Tarkine as a National Heritage site, counter to the advice of the Australian Heritage Council, is bad enough, but his justifications for this decision were disgraceful.

    When we requested from the Department of SEWPAC a formal statement of reasons for this decision we were told that none had been produced and that we should refer to the transcript of Minister Burke’s media conference for his reasons.

    In this statement and other media comments, the minister explains that he decided not to list the entire Tarkine because of the social and economic impacts of such a listing, on mining in particular, but he failed to refer to any expert advice or analysis of these impacts. He does refer to a letter from state government.

    The minister did not explain why he failed to achieve a better compromise.
    :::
    It is a shameful abuse of Mr Burke’s role as environment minister to ignore the advice of the AHC, not even seeking any counter advice from relevant experts (e.g. in regard to the socio-economic impacts, wilderness quality) and to instead make a decision based on his own personal and poorly substantiated opinion.

    Perhaps the worst aspect of the minister’s statement was the implication that heritage listing and mining or other economic uses necessarily clash, and that listing would ban or greatly restrict future mines.

  4. It appears that Dashing Dan’s female Ministerial appointments are lazy, stupid and incompetent.

    Having dealt with several of them in my professional capacity no surprise.

    What a waste.

    As a long term ALP voter and supporter I am devastated.

  5. Pegasus @ #709 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 8:51 pm

    Tasmanian Conservation Trust on Burke’s refusal of Tarkine heritage listing:

    http://www.tasconservation.org.au/tas-conservationist/2013/3/18/tarkine-national-heritage-listing

    The decision by Tony Burke not to list the vast majority of the Tarkine as a National Heritage site, counter to the advice of the Australian Heritage Council, is bad enough, but his justifications for this decision were disgraceful.

    When we requested from the Department of SEWPAC a formal statement of reasons for this decision we were told that none had been produced and that we should refer to the transcript of Minister Burke’s media conference for his reasons.

    In this statement and other media comments, the minister explains that he decided not to list the entire Tarkine because of the social and economic impacts of such a listing, on mining in particular, but he failed to refer to any expert advice or analysis of these impacts. He does refer to a letter from state government.

    The minister did not explain why he failed to achieve a better compromise.
    :::
    It is a shameful abuse of Mr Burke’s role as environment minister to ignore the advice of the AHC, not even seeking any counter advice from relevant experts (e.g. in regard to the socio-economic impacts, wilderness quality) and to instead make a decision based on his own personal and poorly substantiated opinion.

    Perhaps the worst aspect of the minister’s statement was the implication that heritage listing and mining or other economic uses necessarily clash, and that listing would ban or greatly restrict future mines.

    Labor can’t be trusted on the environment while they’re in the pocket of their union donors.

  6. The SDA’s Tony Burke has a new agenda to fast track major mining developments at the expense of the environment. It seems that Burke will put jerbs in front of environmental protection quite openly. Burke will seek to do what he can to get Adani up and going:

    The aim, according to shadow Environment Minister Tony Burke, is to bring environmental legislation “into the 21st century” and be beneficial to the economy as well as the environment, by creating a faster, more efficient and clearer development approvals process to aid the economy, create jobs and promote sustainable development.

    https://www.claytonutz.com/knowledge/2019/february/labor-to-overhaul-federal-environmental-law-if-elected

  7. IMO, the EU are protecting themselves from accusations of forcing a hard Brexit. The UK are trying to avoid holding EU elections, which are due by the end of May. Brexit on June 30 allows the UK to argue they don’t need to hold them. The EU don’t believe them, and have rejected a June 30 Brexit once already.

  8. ‘It appears that Dashing Dan’s female Ministerial appointments are lazy, stupid and incompetent.’

    So ALL of the female Ministers?

    I bet some of your best friends are women.

  9. It appears that Dashing Dan’s female Ministerial appointments are lazy, stupid and incompetent.

    Having dealt with several of them in my professional capacity no surprise.

    What a waste.

    As a long term ALP voter and supporter I am devastated.

    Bemused, is that you?

  10. C@t:

    Local Liberal party branch members here, including the branch president told me last week the election campaign would be 6 weeks, which means an announcement this weekend for May 18.

  11. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 8:57 pm

    Must be the 18th of May because we’ve been given street stall rosters going past the 11th of May.

    That doesn’t necessarily mean anything.

    Sounds like good contingency planning allowing for both dates.

  12. Maybe the Libs can’t get their deposit back on the Sofitel so are stuck with the 18th…

    Monday is the latest writs can be issued for the 11th.

  13. LR – May knows there will ahve to be a long extension. She is forcing the EU to do her dirty-work so that she can tell the ERG she tried. She is, surely, the most pathetic Prime Minister in English history. Her moment of destiny arrived and there was nobody there.

  14. And just scanning here

    The Greens remind me of my ex-wife

    Think they know everything about other people’s lives including passing opinion but know nothing about what is happening in their own backyard

  15. The minimum constitutional period for a Federal election campaign is 33 days. So the last day to call an election for 11 May is Monday. The writs will need to be issued on that day, which is why I think Morrison may go see the GG as early as tomorrow.

  16. Yeah, conventionally, the election is called on the weekend and the writs issued on the Monday following that.

    Personally, I would be in the mindset to make the election as short as possible but if he wants to drag it out a week longer than necessary, that’s his choice. This is, of course assuming that both the rumours of the election being called this weekend and it being for the 18th rather than the 11th are true.

  17. Barney in Saigon @ #731 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 9:01 pm

    C@tmomma says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 8:57 pm

    Must be the 18th of May because we’ve been given street stall rosters going past the 11th of May.

    That doesn’t necessarily mean anything.

    Sounds like good contingency planning allowing for both dates.

    Probably. 🙂

  18. The Tarkine:

    5 December 2018 – https://outline.com/bZHhVV

    The campaign by Bob Brown Foundation and Patagonia for the ancient, wild and threatened takayna / Tarkine has made history in the past week. Today, Australian Greens Senators Peter Whish-Wilson and Nick McKim are tabling the largest petition ever presented to the Senate. The petition ‘Support World Heritage protection for takayna / Tarkine’ received over 270 000 signatures from around the world.

    This petition was also tabled in the Tasmanian Parliament last week by Tasmanian Greens Leader Cassy O’Connor, being the largest ever petition tabled to Tasmania’s Parliament.

    “A massive display of global concern for takayna, the Tarkine, the largest unprotected wilderness in southern Australia. This warrants an explicit response from both the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition. We would welcome both on a summer break trip to the Tarkine. To see it is to want to protect it,” Bob Brown said.

  19. Personally I’d prefer an election sooner rather than later. The sooner we can be rid of this incompetent mob of shysters the better for the country.

  20. Tarkine National Coalition:

    http://www.tarkine.org/national-park-and-world-heritage-aspirations/

    The Tarkine is a region of recognised World Heritage significance. It’s wilderness, vast rainforests, wildlife, landscapes and unique Aboriginal values are outstanding on a world scale. The Tarkine is undoubtedly one of the World’s great wild places.

    However, the Tarkine is not yet formally listed on the National or World Heritage lists, and only a fraction, less than 5%, of the Tarkine region is fully protected as a National Park.

    This means that many of the Tarkine’s outstanding natural and cultural values, are in dire peril, and could be lost forever.

    ——–

    Burke refusing Tarkine heritage listing when he was environment minister was a travesty.

  21. Dunno how much store to play ein this Galaxy poll, but it really looks like 53-47 is virtually set in stone. People have made up their minds. This one is done, you’d reckon

  22. antonbruckner11, the EU elections will be ‘interesting’. Remainers versus Leavers? But it’s academic until the EU27 meet next week.

  23. The fibs are trying very hard to win over voters, especially in Victoria. Josh Frydenberg was just on screen pledging 5 million dollars for MND.
    The disease that has affected former AFL player and Coach Neale Daniher.

  24. Well, Josh Frydenberg has just turned up in the half time broadcast of the footy pretending he knows his Bloods from the Blues so I think its safe to say Its On Like Donkey Kong!

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