The night before Christmas

There is no polling to report, and I have my head buried too deep in my forthcoming federal election to report anything of substance on my own account. But with the announcement of the election universally anticipated on the weekend for either May 11 or May 18, a new open thread is very much in order, so here it is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

801 comments on “The night before Christmas”

Comments Page 13 of 17
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  1. Sanders may be a front-runner, but he’s a decidedly weak one. Polling is showing that he’s only holding on to a little over 1/3 of his support from 2016. He’s raising good money, which is important, he’s got a good army of volunteers. But deeper analysis shows that he’s hitting ceilings of support.

    Biden leading without being in the race is problematic but represents a normal process in the Democratic primary. Clinton led the primaries for both 08 and 16 by STONKING margins, but that was driven by her name recognition. Biden as a former VP to a beloved Dem President and Sanders as the runner up from 16 have the highest name recondition. Biden and Sanders are splitting the ‘default’ vote.

    Sanders also has history against him, Hillary is also the only Democrat in recent history to be runner up then win the nomination next time around. Generally Democrats pick the pure establishment (Mondale, Kerry, Gore, HClinton) or the outsider (Carter, Clinton, Obama). Sanders can no longer claim outsider status.

  2. J34

    You have to throw that thinking out. More Primaries less Caucus.

    So many in the field of candidates the polling is not even been done correctly by comparing candidate against candidate.

    This is why I say its a mugs game to try and predict who is going to win. All you can say is you would prefer to be Sanders than any of the other nominees at this stage because that front runner status and name recognition gives him the advantage. Unlike Biden he is actually collecting campaign funds from small donors that he can keep going back to time and again.

  3. How is removing the staffing cap on the NDIS (and other agencies) politicising the NDIS?

    I work with kids who are forced to be in unsuitable wheelchairs they’ve long grown out of – these being kids with complex and multiple disabilities – because their claims for new ones are held up at the NDIS. This is basic quality of life stuff that affects their ability to learn, grow and socialise. The whole point of the NDIS is that if you need something, it is provided – not provided on the basis that if you badger the NDIS enough you’ll get it quicker than someone who doesn’t have connections.

    The staffing cap should never have been imposed and the LNP deserve the shit thrown at them for such a nasty policy.

  4. GG
    The main thing is to ensure that when it comes to a contest between common sense, sanity, and being right, it is important to defenestrate sanity and common sense.

  5. Irate Centrist would have been a better fit for the content of the posts…

    But I suppose that if someone is convinced that resenting Sanders supporters for imagined slights and transgressions will fill the gaping hole in his heart, what is the harm of a little false advertising?

  6. The real problem is not Sanders.
    He is just a symptom.
    The real problem is that, following Trump’s defeat of Sanders, the Sander’s cult devotees will still know that they were right all along.

  7. Tired or reading nice things about Shorten’s Budget reply ? Well this is your lucky day. check out the letter to the editor section of The Australian, it’s wall to wall like this 😆

    “One of the most cynical exercises in fake emotionalism that our parliament has ever witnessed. Every tear-jerking button pushed. Every sop to personal self-interest squeezed dry. Yet barely a word on how it will be paid for, nor how much it will cost. Shorten’s socialist paradise beckons for the hordes gullible enough to fall for it.”

    https://outline.com/mL2YzM

  8. Bugler,

    Morrison can say what he likes but as your post shows it is the lived experience that counts.

    As with the attempt today by Morrison to brush aside the cancer policy announcement by claiming the services are already free his defence of NDIS funding will not go down at all well with those who face the frustration of inadequate service delivery every day.

  9. Irate Centrist would have been a better fit for the content of the posts…

    You still on that lol?

    Deranged much?

  10. It would be nice to be extra inclusive, but that gets out of hand quickly. According to the Federal Election Commission, there were actually 209 (!) Democrats1 who had filed paperwork to run for president or form an exploratory committee as of last Friday afternoon, including luminaries such as Gidget Groendyk, Maayan Z. Zik, John Martini and Dakota Foxx.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/heres-how-were-defining-a-major-presidential-candidate/

    Note the date of the article. I just posted this paragraph so you could get an idea of just how much enthusiasm there is on the Democratic side of politics.

  11. BK
    My heart sings.
    Have you seen that the EU is protecting your sausage sizzle empire?
    They are preventing the proliferation of fake sausages that do not have any meat in them.

  12. I was a Sanders supporter last time and again this time. I will call him the presumptive nominee when he has the required number of deligates secured. So much water to go under the bridge yet! At the moment, polls are mostly driven by name recognition. I certainly think some on here are overdoing their dismissal of him as a possible winner, I suspect in some cases based on their personal views of him going back to the 2016 campaign, including the myth that he helped cost Clinton the Presidency. . But his campaign still has a hell of a lot of work to do to secure the nomination.

  13. BW
    We only use genuine butcher’s beef sausages – and they are appreciated by the patrons. It probably reduces our profit margin by about 30 cents per unit but we won’t serve up rubbish.

  14. BK
    Glad to hear that. The EU aims to stop people calling sausages made of not meat from being called sausages. Similarly, ‘burger’ will only be allowed to apply to burgers with meat in them.

  15. Obviously I am not political animal and would never make it as a candidate.
    I do not quite understand (sarc?) why Morrison is so enthusiastic (with tearful accompaniment) about an enquiry into the disabled “industry”, but holds out on giving the extra funds to the NDIS that would enable them to be more efficient and effective.

  16. Bugler,

    How is removing the staffing cap on the NDIS (and other agencies) politicising the NDIS?

    I work with kids who are forced to be in unsuitable wheelchairs they’ve long grown out of – these being kids with complex and multiple disabilities – because their claims for new ones are held up at the NDIS. This is basic quality of life stuff that affects their ability to learn, grow and socialise. The whole point of the NDIS is that if you need something, it is provided – not provided on the basis that if you badger the NDIS enough you’ll get it quicker than someone who doesn’t have connections.

    The staffing cap should never have been imposed and the LNP deserve the shit thrown at them for such a nasty policy.

    Yes. It needs repeating.

  17. Australian Unemployed Workers’ Union campaign – It’s time! Raise Newstart!

    http://unemployedworkersunion.com/raise-newstart-now/

    Ask Bill Shorten to commit to increasing Newstart to the poverty line.

    Anyone with a sense of justice and humanity realises It’s Time to raise Newstart payments. Except Bill Shorten. He wants a “root and branch review of Newstart.” We don’t need a review to be sure living 30% below the poverty line is stressful, isolating, and a daily grind.

    Let Shorten know what it’s like to survive on a Newstart payment of $40 per day. Assure him he doesn’t need a review, he simply needs to commit to raising the rate.

    More than 3,000 people have already signed. We need thousands more. Add your signature too.

  18. Thank you for a more thought-out post in support of Sanders, Matt31. I don’t disagree with most of the general things you’ve said.

    I admit I erred when I basically treated him not being a nominee as a “when” rather than “if” thing. But that was more just calling out somebody who was being obnoxious with their inevitability hubris.

    Real talk: I honestly don’t know who’s going to win this thing. I mean I could make a shortlist but, even then, I can’t say with any confidence.

    All I hope is that, whoever it is, even if it is not who they wanted, every Democrat or person who does vote for Democrats supports them (even if just when voting) against Trump.

  19. RL

    This is why I say we have to wait for the debates. The candidates have to fulfil criteria to get on the debate stage. If not you are eliminated. The last I saw the bottom of that lot was Jackson Wang.

  20. Andy Murray @ #624 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 6:14 pm

    Bugler,

    How is removing the staffing cap on the NDIS (and other agencies) politicising the NDIS?

    I work with kids who are forced to be in unsuitable wheelchairs they’ve long grown out of – these being kids with complex and multiple disabilities – because their claims for new ones are held up at the NDIS. This is basic quality of life stuff that affects their ability to learn, grow and socialise. The whole point of the NDIS is that if you need something, it is provided – not provided on the basis that if you badger the NDIS enough you’ll get it quicker than someone who doesn’t have connections.

    The staffing cap should never have been imposed and the LNP deserve the shit thrown at them for such a nasty policy.

    Yes. It needs repeating.

    You bet it does.

    When you see these kids every day at school with your own child you get a unique perspective on their lives and needs. Anyone who stands in the way of that, purely because they are trying to economise on the NDIS (I am putting it politely), while at one and the same time handing over Billions of $ per year to relatively healthy Retirees as a cash giveaway because they own a shedload of shares, is frankly perpetrating a heartless outrage and any government that thinks like that should be turfed out on their ear toot sweet at the next election!

  21. Troy Simpson
    ‏@TroyPSimpson
    11m11 minutes ago

    $2.6bn for cancer is just 6 months worth of franking credits. That’s how extravagant the franking credits entitlements are. #thedrum @ABCthedrum #auspol

  22. The NDIS is a mess. The government knows it and are even mmore sensitive to criticism about it than you are seeing publically. Their handling of it has been a shambolic disgrace. They are not fit to be reelected on this issue alone.

  23. It’s time to declare the election so that the ABC will stop the free LNP promotion, such as the LNP Budget Luncheon today. Just a free opportunity for ScoMo to grandstand.

  24. The dust storms across South Australia are so bad, traffic has stopped on some country roads due to lack of visibility.

    I have been out and about in the hills around Strathalbyn today. Windy, dusty, dry.

  25. Simon² Katich® @ #634 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 6:36 pm

    The dust storms across South Australia are so bad, traffic has stopped on some country roads due to lack of visibility.

    I have been out and about in the hills around Strathalbyn today. Windy, dusty, dry.

    And I heard a South Australian farmer on the ABC on the way home in the car and all he could say was that all his topsoil had blown away and drought is terrible.

    🙄

  26. I remember driving through a dust storm in the mid north, low visibility, only to emerge into a thunderstorm.

    Instant mud, zero visibility.

    Scary!

  27. lizzie @ #633 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 6:32 pm

    It’s time to declare the election so that the ABC will stop the free LNP promotion, such as the LNP Budget Luncheon today. Just a free opportunity for ScoMo to grandstand.

    lizzie,
    The Coalition will, nevertheless, have figured out ten different ways from Sunday to have their propaganda broadcast on the intimidated, or complicit(I don’t know which), ABC, right up until election day.

  28. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 6:42 pm

    And I heard a South Australian farmer on the ABC on the way home in the car and all he could say was that all his topsoil had blown away and drought is terrible.

    Isn’t that why they recommend paddocks should be surrounded by trees?

  29. Another one for the Chum Bucket files of Joe Hockey aka Hockey World

    @primroseriordan
    Follow Follow @primroseriordan
    More
    Penny Wong has asked whether US Ambassador Joe Hockey has used the official Ambassador’s residence address in Washington DC as the registered address for two businesses, Xia Family Pty Ltd and Rahbah Pty Ltd.


    I have a feeling Joe will have to put the stogies away and get on a plane soon after this election with a one way ticket.

  30. Eryk Bagshaw is mathematically illiterate (whether or not he’s numerate, he does not understand maths and is incapable of interpreting it). Rather sad for an “economics correspondent”.

  31. Farmer on The Drum just said that the whole MDB problem “turned around” when Barnaby took over (and favoured the large irrigators). We need to emasculate Barnaby.

  32. Last night I flicked past Sky after dark on WIN to see what they were saying about Shorten’s budget reply address. Nothing about the address but a huge whinge about Pizza Hut cancelling advertising. These RWNJs can dish it out but are actually big sooks when someone stands up to them.

  33. And I heard a South Australian farmer on the ABC on the way home in the car and all he could say was that all his topsoil had blown away and drought is terrible.

    Some farmers north of Adelaide are making some hard decisions atm. Those that can are selling up or about to.

    To think there was a time they thought they could farm as far north as Wilpena Pound (and Farina and even Dalhousie). But Goyder was right, and his line is retreating south.

  34. If the ABC can send a camera crew from 4 Corners to a Syrian refugee camp, what’s ScoMo rabbiting on about “risking Australian lives” to get those kids out?

  35. I’m surprised there’s been no squealing about Di Natale being left out of the YouGov/Galaxy on leadership. It had Scomo, Bill, PH & Clive only.

    It was a survey of people displaying leadership. I’m not seeing the problem. 😉

  36. C@tmomma @ #626 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 5:54 pm

    Andy Murray @ #624 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 6:14 pm

    Bugler,

    How is removing the staffing cap on the NDIS (and other agencies) politicising the NDIS?

    I work with kids who are forced to be in unsuitable wheelchairs they’ve long grown out of – these being kids with complex and multiple disabilities – because their claims for new ones are held up at the NDIS. This is basic quality of life stuff that affects their ability to learn, grow and socialise. The whole point of the NDIS is that if you need something, it is provided – not provided on the basis that if you badger the NDIS enough you’ll get it quicker than someone who doesn’t have connections.

    The staffing cap should never have been imposed and the LNP deserve the shit thrown at them for such a nasty policy.

    Yes. It needs repeating.

    You bet it does.

    When you see these kids every day at school with your own child you get a unique perspective on their lives and needs. Anyone who stands in the way of that, purely because they are trying to economise on the NDIS (I am putting it politely), while at one and the same time handing over Billions of $ per year to relatively healthy Retirees as a cash giveaway because they own a shedload of shares, is frankly perpetrating a heartless outrage and any government that thinks like that should be turfed out on their ear toot sweet at the next election!

    I see people with disabilities waiting for wheelchair repair or parts. There is also the need to organise a break-down service through the local Auto Club or whatever. I had never thought of what happens when you are out and your powered wheelchair (the most common electric ‘vehicle’ I suppose), gets a flat tyre.

    Bill is correct in setting aside TAFE training for Aged Care and NDIS workers, there just is not going to be enough.

  37. . It probably reduces our profit margin by about 30 cents per unit but we won’t serve up rubbish.

    Of course not. You’re not the endorsed Liberal candidate.

  38. ‘guytaur says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 6:23 pm

    RL
    Wang is BW’s nightmare. A UBI guy. If he gets to the debate stage UBI will come up in the debates.’

    The UBI is not my nightmare. The UBI and UBI touts are self-solving problems.

  39. How is removing the staffing cap on the NDIS (and other agencies) politicising the NDIS?

    I work with kids who are forced to be in unsuitable wheelchairs they’ve long grown out of – these being kids with complex and multiple disabilities – because their claims for new ones are held up at the NDIS. This is basic quality of life stuff that affects their ability to learn, grow and socialise. The whole point of the NDIS is that if you need something, it is provided – not provided on the basis that if you badger the NDIS enough you’ll get it quicker than someone who doesn’t have connections.

    The staffing cap should never have been imposed and the LNP deserve the shit thrown at them for such a nasty policy.

    As with everything this misgovernment touches the disconnect between reality and their rhetoric is what’s going to kill them. Trying to create an alternative reality for political gain might work in the short term, but it has a short shelf life. The shelf life of this mob’s attempts ran out at around the same time Trumble was throwing the toys out of his cot at the Sheraton Wentworth back in July 2016.

  40. I guess I am an Anti the Anti Vaxxers on social media because I am always sharing pro-vaccine posts and articles plus telling anti-vaxxers to grow up and leave the cult.

    Armed with little more than a healthy respect for science and some SpongeBob SquarePants memes, a handful of Australians go online each day to take on a dedicated foe.
    Simon*, a West Australian early childhood educator, helps run the Facebook page Refutations to Anti-Vaccination Memes. He did not want to include his real name due to incidents where people have been harassed by anti-vaccination advocates.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-03-07/australian-volunteers-fight-anti-vaccination-facebook/10876744

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