The night before Christmas

There is no polling to report, and I have my head buried too deep in my forthcoming federal election to report anything of substance on my own account. But with the announcement of the election universally anticipated on the weekend for either May 11 or May 18, a new open thread is very much in order, so here it is.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

801 comments on “The night before Christmas”

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  1. “Imagine how many more seats Labor could win with a leader voters trust and engage in …?”

    FFS.
    Rex, usually I regard you as harmless background noise. But today you’re actually starting to piss me off. Shorten has held his party together for nearly 6 years; he’s seen off three LNP Prime Ministers over that time; he has solid support from the grassroots; and he’s promoted and articulated a highly ambitious and progressive policy agenda.
    But all you can do is bitch and whine about if only Shorten was more popular maybe the ALP would be even further ahead. But you know what, maybe the ALP wouldn’t be. Maybe what an alternative (like Albo) would gain in likeability would be lost elsewhere. (For example, I’ve noticed Albo isn’t always across policy detail the way Shorten is.)
    And Shorten IS the Leader of the Opposition. The official start of the election campaign is only days away. So if you want this abomination of a LNP government swept into the dustbin of history, maybe just STFU.

  2. uytaur says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 3:17 pm
    What percentage of Labor voters want Newstart raised.

    If thats a majority why wouldn’t Labor do it?
    It can’t be worries about losing the election when Sinodinos says its too low.
    —————————-
    There are many things wrong with the newstart system. The ridiculously low payment is just one of many problems. That us why it is better to review the whole system rather than just increase the payment. I do however think that an increase in payment while; the system is reviewed would be a reasonable thing to do.

  3. Disappointing not to hear Labor say they are the Party of superannuation, and ask whether people really think the conservative dolts in this country would have had the wherewithal to implement a system which takes retirees off the subsistence-model aged pension.

    Good on Bowen for saying these people are welcome not to vote Labor anyway – they’re not likely to in any event.

    Further proof Boomers as a whole need to hurry up and shuffle off the coil, frankly. The worst generation ever. Given everything by their parents, and now want to steal it from their kids and grandkids for themselves. Who would have thought it – an entire generation without one redeeming feature.

  4. Lol I have my own servers and encryption guytaur

    I know all about tech but I have standards and not beholden to A disgrace that is Apple

  5. HH

    Maybe. However he deserved fair legal process.

    With the chargers dropped I think its clear that the legal process was not fair either to Assange or to the victims. Due to the prosecutor handling of Swedish case.

    The UK should have treated the bail skipping as the low level it really was instead of pretending it was this huge problem. That way they could have picked him up at some stage without all that cost and torture of imprisoning him (UN Definition not mine) in the Embassy.

    Have your opinion of Assange even about cooperating with Russian Intelligence. Thats different to how the law is supposed to operate.

  6. imacca @ #249 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 11:33 am

    “Over time, observing nath’s “comments” it seems to me that “it” is here as some kind of irritant to disrupt sensible discussion and sharing of inside info and ideas. ”

    pritu, you always get some people on a blog who appear to just get triggered by certain events or certain posters. They aren’t actually into discussion, just rants, and seem to easily tip into nasty stuff. Hey , i dont always manage it but best to scroll on by and try not to get involed in the slanging. My prob is i think i am funnier than i actually am with a tendancy to lame humor. 🙂 And although i try to be a beter person these days sometimes after glass of wine or two my inner bitch comes out to play when one of those post something really annoying. 🙁

    we are all human….well most of us…..i suspect the Bree Bot of silicone in the head……

    While nath may not be particularly funny, the over the top reactions of some to his posts certainly is.

  7. Christ. People complain about comments on brexit and trump. I spend most of my time reading comments on meat-heads Rex and Nath. Talking about destroying this blog.

  8. Zoid

    The only disgrace about Apple is that it acts like any US company. That includes the push to shut out self repair in favour of obsolescence. Ask farmers and car mechanics about those products

  9. Just when you thought News Corp’s political coverage couldn’t be any more partisan, the Courier Mail published a federal budget front page that was little more than blatant propaganda for Scott Morrison’s government.

    The Brisbane tabloid’s front page, headlined “Australia at Crossroads”, featured big green road signs that pointed right to financial rewards and tax cuts under the Coalition and left to risk and debt under Labor. “Beware left turn: $200b tax hazard ahead,” said the bullet-ridden sign.

    As anyone who has worked in a Murdoch newsroom can attest, the journalists have little to no influence over the direction the paper will take and they don’t all go along with it. But sources at the Queensland masthead say this week’s effort upset more than a few. Many staff were “mortified and embarrassed” by the editor’s none-too-subtle treatment of the budget.

    Since September 2017 the Courier Mail has been led by Sam Weir, a former editor of Adelaide’s Advertiser and the Perth Sunday Times. Weir was approached by The Weekly Beast for comment.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/apr/05/news-corp-journos-see-red-over-pro-budget-propaganda-blitz?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

  10. Rex,

    The Libs might like to announce the results of a process before it begins, see the recent grant announcement, but Labor allow the process to do its thing before coming to a conclusion.

    They have said they will have a review of welfare payments and come to a final position from it.

    Is that too difficult to understand?

  11. Kakuru @ #452 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 3:21 pm

    “Imagine how many more seats Labor could win with a leader voters trust and engage in …?”

    FFS.
    Rex, usually I regard you as harmless background noise. But today you’re actually starting to piss me off. Shorten has held his party together for nearly 6 years; he’s seen off three LNP Prime Ministers over that time; he has solid support from the grassroots; and he’s promoted and articulated a highly ambitious and progressive policy agenda.
    But all you can do is bitch and whine about if only Shorten was more popular maybe the ALP would be even further ahead. But you know what, maybe the ALP wouldn’t be. Maybe what an alternative (like Albo) would gain in likeability would be lost elsewhere. (For example, I’ve noticed Albo isn’t always across policy detail the way Shorten is.)
    And Shorten IS the Leader of the Opposition. The official start of the election campaign is only days away. So if you want this abomination of a LNP government swept into the dustbin of history, maybe just STFU.

    He’s only leader thanks to a rat in the ‘left’ faction doing a dodgy factional deal.

    ‘Seen off 3 LNP Prime Ministers” ?? You and I both know the LNP blew themselves up.

    Don’t fret, the Govt will be voted out. A shame though that some of them will survive thanks to Shortens drag on the Labor vote.

  12. Courier Mail,Australian,Terrorgraph,Herald Scum,Advertiser,Mercury. All just Liberal propoganda specialists.Talk about putting lipstick on this pig of a government.

  13. Burgey says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 3:22 pm
    Disappointing not to hear Labor say they are the Party of superannuation, and ask whether people really think the conservative dolts in this country would have had the wherewithal to implement a system which takes retirees off the subsistence-model aged pension.

    Good on Bowen for saying these people are welcome not to vote Labor anyway – they’re not likely to in any event.

    Further proof Boomers as a whole need to hurry up and shuffle off the coil, frankly. The worst generation ever. Given everything by their parents, and now want to steal it from their kids and grandkids for themselves. Who would have thought it – an entire generation without one redeeming feature.
    ——————–
    I was involved in a small way with the introduction of industry superannuation. I know many of the people who worked hard to build it to what it is now. Guess what, they are all baby boomers.
    The Hawke government is widely considered to have played a major part in creating the modern Australian economy. Guess what, They were mostly baby boomers.
    This ‘blame one generation for all our woes’ game is a simplistic stupidity.

  14. Burgey @ #455 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 3:22 pm

    Disappointing not to hear Labor say they are the Party of superannuation, and ask whether people really think the conservative dolts in this country would have had the wherewithal to implement a system which takes retirees off the subsistence-model aged pension.

    Good on Bowen for saying these people are welcome not to vote Labor anyway – they’re not likely to in any event.

    Further proof Boomers as a whole need to hurry up and shuffle off the coil, frankly. The worst generation ever. Given everything by their parents, and now want to steal it from their kids and grandkids for themselves. Who would have thought it – an entire generation without one redeeming feature.

    Fair point re the boomers – but to congratulate the dolt Bowen for capitulating on the hard sell of the franking credit changes is a stretch too far.

    Labors whole problem is their inability to engage with and win over public support on issues such as this, asylum seekers, defence spending, fraudband, etc etc….

  15. Lizzie

    The need to “separate the facts from the Frydenbergs” does not stop there. Remmeber all those lines about not raising taxes. Turns out that was a lie too, with kudos to Michael Pascoe at New Daily.

    “P.S: While searching for the GST figures, I accidentally dialled up the 2017-18 budget papers which included this paragraph: “The 2017-18 budget forecasts for tax receipts have been revised up by $6.4 billion over the four years to 2019-20, as a result of policy decisions including increasing the Medicare levy, introducing a major bank levy, improving the integrity of GST on property transactions, and introducing a Skilling Australians Fund levy.”

    That was Scott Morrison’s first budget. Don’t believe his rhetoric about not increasing taxes.”

    That Cormann claim the surplus was “achieved by hard work” is looking like pure fiction. The real question is who tells the biggest lies? ScumMo or Josh?

  16. Bevan Shields Verified account @BevanShields

    Gee, lots of government appointments being announced today! Wonder why? #auspol

  17. If it’s not real meat then you can’t call it a burger, or a sausage, or a steak, European MPs have voted.

    Brussels: European Union legislators have thrown desperate Brexiteers a bone and outraged environmentalists by launching an attack on veggie burgers.

    Members of the European Parliament’s agriculture committee voted this week for a new law to ban the use of words such as “burger”, “hamburger”, “steak”, “escalope” or “sausage” on food packaging, promotion or marketing if the food concerned is “primarily made up of proteins of vegetable origin”.

    The vote took place on Monday, April 1, but appears not to have been an April Fool’s prank. Instead it’s part of an EU push to make sure consumers are not misled.

    https://www.theage.com.au/world/europe/vegans-choke-on-proposed-eu-rule-banning-veggie-burgers-20190405-p51b1r.html

  18. antonbruckner11 @ #460 Friday, April 5th, 2019 – 12:25 pm

    Christ. People complain about comments on brexit and trump. I spend most of my time reading comments on meat-heads Rex and Nath. Talking about destroying this blog.

    I agree. So I’ll repeat the New Year resolution I’m trying to abide by, and would encourage other Bludgers to do the same:

    1. Where there is a Bludger whose posts I don’t feel add value, I’m not going to remonstrate with them, I’m just going to ignore them.
    2. I’m going treat other Bludgers with respect.

    If ignoring someone whose posts you feel do not add value is too hard for you, then block that poster. There is no need to remonstrate with that poster ad nauseam where you feel their contributions do not add value.

  19. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 3:10 pm

    Re the NDIS

    I find the politicisation of this truly disgusting.

    The money is there – so fix the implementation – and don’t use any of the unused funding to promote a budget surplus.

    Where’s the decency ??

    A prime example of the lack of leadership. Would Ardern politicise this issue …?

    So, Labor’s promise to restore its integrity is politicising it?

    You have no clue!

  20. Cat

    Your welcome. Better to see it on YouTube where you can turn it off when you want and be aware you might want a quite carriage if you see him 🙂

  21. Kristina Keneally

    Verified account

    @KKeneally

    Revealed at #estimates: the ⁦Morrison⁩ Govt has the *exact same electric car vehicle target* as Labor: 50% of new car sales to be electric vehicles by 2030

    Has anyone told ⁦@JoshFrydenberg⁩ ⁦@ScottMorrisonMP⁩ @australian or Peta Credlin?

  22. Steve Davis
    “@KKeneally

    Revealed at #estimates: the ⁦Morrison⁩ Govt has the *exact same electric car vehicle target* as Labor: 50% of new car sales to be electric vehicles by 2030”

    There is one big difference. The government has not announced one measure to achieve that target.

  23. “So the RC is for brother-in-law Gary, not for the thousands of affected people with disabilities. Using this logic if another brother-in-law was a refugee on Manus, offshore detention would have been scrapped long ago.”

    This is exactly what Andrews did with Victoria’s dying with dignity legislation. For a decade or so, the Greens attempted to get legislation through but both major parties resisted.

    For a decade the lived experiences of ordinary people were ignored as were grassroots advocates for the need of such legislation.

    Andrews finally came to the party when he saw what
    his father went through.

    The other consideration was purely political.

  24. This week, I’ve had the interesting experience of the C+ extension on Firefox apparently defaulting to show all previously blocked posters to PB. It has shown me what I’ve been missing – not much. Fortunately one can restore the blocks. I like LR’s rules, and have deleted several potential posts when realising that they were reactions to something in me, not necessarily on PB. I suspect my judgement is still suspect, but it is quieter within my head.

  25. “I do however think that an increase in payment while; the system is reviewed would be a reasonable thing to do.”

    Agree. And i am cognizant of the fact that the actual election campaign has not actually begun and the ALP are going into it with the fiscal flexibility to actually make an interim rise in Newstart possible. They will assess whether or not it fits their campaign to do so. I hope they do.

    I mean, now is NOT the time to drive the final nail into the coffin of the Muppets. They can take their time and do the bastards slowly in tribute to the great PJK. :).

    Hold an interim rise in Newstart in reserve for a situation during the campaign where the Muppets might think they are making headway (polling??)…………… and then smack em with that at short notice or in the final 2 weeks of the campaign.

    You catch the voters right when a lot of them are actually making up their minds on who to vote for and create a situation where the Muppets panic and make mistakes in the final days of the campaign, right when the ALP is ramping up the on the ground person to person campaign stuff big time.

    Rex is an idiot.

  26. Socrates says:
    Friday, April 5, 2019 at 3:48 pm

    Steve Davis
    “@KKeneally

    Revealed at #estimates: the ⁦Morrison⁩ Govt has the *exact same electric car vehicle target* as Labor: 50% of new car sales to be electric vehicles by 2030”

    There is one big difference. The government has not announced one measure to achieve that target.

    Another obvious difference is that Labor seem to know what their own policies are. 😆

  27. Grimace,

    That is exactly the policy I adopt.

    Unfortunately, the thread still gets blocked up by PBers responding to these idiots and also re-posting their posts within their responses.

    Unfortunately, there are too many posters with an overwhelming desire to correct the record or respond to idiots. My suggestion is ignore the cretins and live a happier, more serene life.

  28. Further proof Boomers as a whole need to hurry up and shuffle off the coil, frankly. The worst generation ever. Given everything by their parents, and now want to steal it from their kids and grandkids for themselves. Who would have thought it – an entire generation without one redeeming feature.

    _______________________________________

    Quite frankly it’s outrageous that a poster here wants to lump an entire generation together into one simple description. Honestly, it’s the stupidity of all the Millenials and Generation Xers who have no idea because they had it so good that results in these gross generalisations attacking the baby boomers!!

  29. Any targets that the Coalition has in any environmental domain (that aren’t targets for destruction of the environment) are distractions. They exist purely to con enough of the slow witted that they aren’t really environmental vandals.

    Any attempts to actually achieve said targets will be nothing more than superficial and transparent schemes designed to shovel money into the pockets of their supporters.

  30. For some people lived experience is the only way that their attitudes to somethings are changed.

    Imagine the ME debate if Abbott’s sister was gay?

  31. Guardian Australia revealed last year that the ABC was dismantling its historic sound and reference libraries across the country and making 10 specialist librarians redundant.
    ..The ABC said in a statement the library had been converted to a digital one that offers access to e-books and digital publications and supplies digitised music on demand.

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2019/apr/05/news-corp-journos-see-red-over-pro-budget-propaganda-blitz

    I’m not a librarian, but surely librarians do more than just stack shelves? A digital library is like a warehouse with no index and only the one narrow beam torch. To find anything you have to rely on an algorithm created with an unknown built-in context and bias. Those 10 librarians weren’t so much redundant as expendable. (It wouldn’t surprise me if they also had the job of creating the digital library that allowed them to be “let go”.)

  32. ratsak

    At least to his credit Keane admits his error. Look at the Canberra Gallery and see how many are doing the same. Its not very many.

  33. Like the Coalition, Shorten and Labor will not highlight or address the dire need to raise Newstart, especially before an election.

    The unemployed have been demonised as “dole bludgers” by the political duopoly for decades.

    Emphasising “working Australians, working mums , hard working…. ” excludes those “dole bludgers” and is sending an implicit message that their hard-earned taxpayer dollars will not be given to ‘undeserving dole bludgers’.

    Both major parties do not want to alienate their base of so-called hard working Australians.

    That’s why in such a wealthy country there has not been a real increase to Newstart in 25 years.

    A unity ticket.

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