Calm before the storm

A Seinfeld-ian post about nothing, as pollsters hold their fire ahead of tonight’s budget.

There seems to be a hardening view that Scott Morrison will take advantage of what he hopes will be a positive response to tonight’s budget by calling the election later this week, for either May 11 or May 18. Whenever the election may be called, its proximity makes this an awkward time for us to go a week without new poll results. Newspoll is set for a highly unusual four-week gap, having held off last week due to the New South Wales election and this week due to the budget, while Essential Research is in an off week in its fortnightly cycle. The dam is set to burst next week, with Ipsos joining the two aforementioned with post-budget poll results.

For now, all I can do for you in the way of poll news is to relate what James Campbell of the Herald Sun offered on Liberal internal polling last Thursday: that Pauline Hanson scores net approval ratings of minus 62% and minus 63% in the Melbourne seats of Deakin and Chisholm – and, incidentally, that Peter Dutton has been known to record minus 50% in Melbourne. Beyond that, there is one item of important preselection news to relate, in that the New South Wales Liberals are set to endorse child psychologist Fiona Martin as their successor to the retiring Craig Laundy in Reid. The Australian reports Martin has been chosen ahead of Tanveer Ahmed, a psychiatrist, and Scott Yung, candidate for Kogarah at last week’s state election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,286 thoughts on “Calm before the storm”

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  4. Adrian.

    The very first words from conservative economist. Chris Richardson included the word Fair.

    The very thing voters have been voting for.

    Marriage Equality
    ABC
    Health
    Education etc etc.

    So yes I think that’s important and gold for Labor.

  5. I hate the $6 billion subsidy to private health insurance profiteers.

    A proper public health system would have NO place for health insurance profiteers.

  13. I much prefer Amy’s live blog (Guardian) of Shorten’s speech over Henry Belot at the ABC. Belot cannot resist inserting snide comments.

    Perhaps it’s me but I find that ABC people cannot resist inserting snide comments where Labor is concerned. At least Murdoch people are openly biased and Nine/Fairfax employs people whose biases are fairly easily discerned.

  14. Leigh ran out of questions to ask, which allowed Shorten to speak uninterrupted.

    That’s the problem when you have a little list of gotchas.

  15. Dental care in Medicare may come one day, but it is complicated, as the whole industry is private, they will fight to the death being included in a National scheme (with regulated fees etc) and they have invested heavily in equipment etc…. It can be done, but not as a quick sound bite before an election. It needs a lot of research, consultation and hard work- no rush.
    Remember when Medicare Gold (that seemed like a no brainer) was blurted out as a thought bubble and the trouble it got Labor into.

  17. During the election campaign, the more voters see of Shorten, the more they’ll like him.
    The more they see of Morrison, the worse it will get for the LNP.

  18. rhwombat

    “ – its 1972 again.”

    —————

    Hmmm its not “1972 again”, yet.

    There is still time for it. It needs a more radical structural changes.

  20. Whisper @ #1895 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 4:50 pm

    Just arrived home from been out all day, so this might of been said.
    The news from the Labor party last night was the election would be called Sunday for the 11th. See if my informant is correct, should be!

    There are a surprising number of posters on PB who think ‘of’ is a verb. Whisper is not alone.

  21. Probyn reckons the ALP have a warchest of up to $400 Billion on a 10 year time frame to play with. 🙂

    Now, i prefer to think in terms of 4 year forward estimates…but even then??

    Govt is fwarked. They have locked into a surplus of $7.1 Billion and have only $2.6B to announce during the campaign WITHOUT dicking around with that.

    They will be hitting the panicked, shouty, they are lying button right now. 🙂

  22. Travel narrows the mind? It focused mine.
    — Travel ought to combine amusement with instruction; but most travelers are so much amused that they refuse to be instructed… But I believe that there is a better way which largely consists of laughter; a form of friendship between nations which is actually founded on differences. —

  23. swamprat says:
    Thursday, April 4, 2019 at 8:26 pm

    I hate the $6 billion subsidy to private health insurance profiteers.

    A proper public health system would have NO place for health insurance profiteers.

    It’s not just eliminating the gap, it’s also included lifting the accessibility and capacity in the public system.

  24. Sales & the preferred PM polling, what is the correlation between polling of a leader of the opposition when they then become PM

  28. I attended the campaign launch for Shireen Morris in Deakin this evening.
    WOW!
    She will be a great addition to the Labor Caucus and eventually the Ministry.
    Only blemish on her is that she is a lawyer. Otherwise of impeccable character.

  30. It looks like a big win for cancer patients, private radiology practices and private surgeons and oncologists. Should take some pressure off the public hospitals.

  31. She didn’t ask about polling, did she? What a lightweight..yes “I don’t want to be rude… but..why are you so unpopular ” at least that’s what she wanted to say

  33. Guytaur- ever wondered why teeth are excluded from Medicare- maybe you missed the dentists ferocious and successful campaign to stay excluded.
    Yes we can treat them like doctors, but it is not a battle to ignite 5 weeks from an election…it needs some planning and strategy.

  36. Sales was ok. Not too much hectoring.
    Bill given time to answer, which was nice.
    He really does need to find a suit that fits though.
    Maybe it’s the everyman thing pitch.

  37. Torch

    I disagree with you.

    It’s exactly the fight Labor wants. Fighting for the battlers against the elite.
    Please note I expect if Labor announces any such plans they will have prepared

  38. Socrates @ #1928 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 6:06 pm

    “Et tu Costello!”

    Didn’t Costello belong to the moderate faction of the Libs that has been virtually exterminated by the religious right? Despite his Baptist background, I did not think Costello was religious.

    He was a pious hypocrite.
    Professed religion but acted contrary to it.

  39. Henry @ #2086 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 8:50 pm

    Sales was ok. Not too much hectoring.
    Bill given time to answer, which was nice.
    He really does need to find a suit that fits though.
    Maybe it’s the everyman thing pitch.

    I’ve been trying to analyse why that is and I think I have the answer. I believe the suits can’t be made to fit better because Bill Shorten is barrel-chested, so a tighter suit, or better-fitting if you want to put it that way, would look worse.

  40. swamprat @ #2067 Thursday, April 4th, 2019 – 8:39 pm

    rhwombat

    “ – its 1972 again.”

    —————

    Hmmm its not “1972 again”, yet.

    There is still time for it. It needs a more radical structural changes.

    It’s April 1972 – Gough only won 8 seats (on a 2.5% swing) in December 1972. Bill will do better than that, and he has a cabinet of colleagues with skills to deliver without the stuffups. Admittedly, this time Rupert doesn’t think he can steer the ship, so the screams from Mordor will be deafening – which will add relish.

  43. Whenever a moron (ie journalist) asks Labor ‘can you afford all this?’, the correct answer is ‘the government tells you how easily we can afford it every time they open their mouths.’

  45. EGW,

    I’ve volunteered for Shireen a few times recently and have been impressed with her. She’s across the details and doesn’t miss a beat.

  46. Tired, unambitious, disappointing. And this from a (TM) True Believer.

    Uncomfortable with winning 53/47, this was largely recycled material by a team that still (!!!) doesn’t believe they deserve to win the biggest ALP victory in history. Even the “nodders” looked disinterested.

    I hope I’m wrong, but tonight locked in 51.5/49.5, one less term of an ALP government, and a decent chance that Shorten is either retiring or getting challenged before a second term.

    Bowen in particular looked hungry on the sidelines. Albo unseen.

    The one stand-out was cancer investment (are they matching the Libs on immunotherapy research?), but as others have noted we’re talking $2.3bn over 4 years compared to $24bn in subsidies for a “private” health industry that cost-shifts the big expenses to the taxpayer.

    This was a once in a generation opportunity for the Australian Centre-Left to outline a new bargain (accord? deal?) that would serve as a benchmark for parties across the West.

    We have an economy that has departed from all models, a voting public hungry for new ideas and leadership, a incumbent that has rorted beyond measure, and an opposition scared to seize the initiative.

    Maybe they’re saving the big ammunition for a time when fewer people are listening.

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