Guest post by Adrian Beaumont, who joins us from time to time to provide commentary on elections internationally. Adrian is an honorary associate at The University of Melbourne. His work on electoral matters for The Conversation can be found here, and his own website is here.
On March 21, a European leaders’ summit was held. Leaders of the 27 EU nations, not including the UK, agreed to delay the date of Brexit until April 12 (originally March 29). If Theresa May’s deal passes the House of Commons, Brexit would be delayed until May 22 to allow necessary legislation to pass. European parliament elections will be held from May 23-26. If the UK were to participate in these elections, a longer extension could be given, but the UK must inform the European Commission of its intent to participate by April 12, hence the new deadline. On March 27, the Commons passed this Brexit extension by 441 votes to 105.
On March 25, the Commons passed an amendment that allowed parliament, rather than the government, to control the agenda, and set indicative Brexit votes. This amendment passed by 329 votes to 302, with 30 Conservative MPs rebelling, though eight Labour MPs also rebelled. However, an amendment that would have attempted to prevent a no-deal Brexit failed by 314 votes to 311. On March 27, a motion for more indicative votes on April 1 passed by 331 votes to 287.
All of the March 27 indicative votes were lost, but two came close to passing. Conservative MPs were given a free vote with Cabinet members told to abstain, while Labour MPs were whipped on most votes. A customs union proposal came closest, losing by 272 votes to 264, with abstentions from pro-Remain parties. An amendment that would require a confirmatory referendum on any deal failed by 295 votes to 268, with 27 Labour MPs rebelling. Another soft Brexit option failed by 283 votes to 188, a motion in favour of no-deal failed by 400 votes to 160, with Conservatives favouring no-deal by 157-94. An amendment that would revoke Brexit to avoid no-deal failed by 293 votes to 184, with Labour MPs favouring revocation by 111-22.
Commentator Stephen Bush says that, while the second referendum proposal had more Yes votes than any other proposal, it also had more No votes than any other proposal that would soften Brexit, showing that it is a polarising proposal. Had the second referendum proposal lost badly, it would be clear to pursue the customs union proposal, but a live second referendum option makes no-deal more likely as MPs may be unable to coalesce around any option.
What these votes show is that, while there is a large majority against a no-deal Brexit, there is no majority for an option that would prevent a no-deal. Unless a deal is approved by April 12, the UK would be required to participate in EU elections to obtain a further extension to Brexit. Participating in these elections is also unlikely to win Commons support, as it would effectively remove a Brexit guarantee, and the Conservatives would likely suffer the anger of betrayed Leave voters.
Under the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, the next election is not due until May 2022, but there are two ways to get an early election. One way is if two-thirds of the Commons votes for an early election (as happened before the June 2017 election when the Conservatives were deprived of their majority in a massive upset). An early election can also be held if there is a successful no-confidence vote, and no government can be formed in the next 14 days. The earliest an election can be held is April 25, taking it past the April 12 deadline. If the UK does not want a no-deal Brexit in the middle of the election campaign, it must agree to participate in EU elections first.
On March 27, May made a vague promise to resign if her deal was approved. The Conservative membership, which is pro-hard Leave, will choose between two candidates nominated by Conservative MPs if there is a leadership vacancy. This promise appears to have won over prominent hard Leave MPs Boris Johnson and Jacob Rees-Mogg, who sniffed an opportunity to become PM. However, more moderate Conservatives do not want PM Johnson. May also made progress with hard Leavers by threatening them with a long extension and perhaps no Brexit if her deal is rejected again. The question is whether she follows through on that threat.
On March 29, the same day as the original Brexit date, the Commons rejected May’s deal for a third time by 344 votes to 286; the 58-vote margin was much reduced from 149 on March 12 and 230 on January 15. Conservative MPs voted for the deal by 277-34 (235-75 on March 12), but the ten Democratic Unionist Party MPs, who usually vote with the government, were opposed, and just five Labour MPs were in favour (three on March 12). This was a vote on the legally binding withdrawal agreement alone, and did not include the political declaration. By separating these documents, May got around Commons Speaker John Bercow’s disallowance of her deal being brought back.
In summary, May’s deal was defeated again, MPs will not be able to coalesce around a customs union because the second referendum option did unexpectedly well, a general election would require an unpopular extension to participate in EU elections, and concrete efforts to prevent a no-deal Brexit failed. Unless something is resolved within the next two weeks, a no-deal Brexit looms. More indicative votes will be held on April 1.
A couple of points. “300 years of tyranny under English rule.” BAAAAHHAAAAHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yeah, hyperbole much? Second oh, Corbyn is ahead in one poll and level in another, what do the Blairite Junta on here have to say about that?
Here’s Adrian’s graphic – just did Copy image location while mousing-over
At last, an intelligent petition:
Petition
Hold a referendum on England leaving the United Kingdom.
The Scottish have had the chance to vote for independence, it’s about time the English had the same right.
Sign this petition
12,668 signatures
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/231563
I believe that they have all been out under the midday sun too long.
Clearly, with clear divisions within parties, concensus is the only way forward.
Adversarial politics does not train well for this.
Thanks interesting. What I find shocking is this bit:
“ a motion in favour of no-deal failed by 400 votes to 160, with Conservatives favouring no-deal by 157-94.”
A no deal Brexit would be economically a disaster for Britain, take a year to prepare for without financial damage, and cost many jobs. Only a few tax avoiders in the city would benefit, evading EU tax laws. It was also not what was promised by the leave group in the Brexit referendum. Yet clearly 157 Conservative MPs want a hard/no-deal Brexit, voting down any reasonable alternative. They are as bad as the Qld Nationals.
Will be interesting overnight (our time) to see if some customs union with 2nd referendum model can pull 320 votes in the commons (remain parties like the SNP have to come on board and stop abstaining).
If it does then what?
Some legislation that forces May to adopt it as the govt position in a long extension?
Surely at that point May either resigns or tries to trigger an election or both.
But does any of that prevent a no deal brexit if a long term extension (with participation in the EU elections) is not sought and granted?
I think there is a decent probability that something goes wrong – commons not triggering an election yet May refusing to request an extension on that basis – that no deal kicks in by default on Apr 12
It might be better if no model gets a maj tonight… that way May can req an extension solely on the basis of a general election with the next parliament having to work out what to do in the extension timeframe.
Beware an uncooperative May with nothing to lose
these 170 tories who want May to do nothing and let no deal happen + further tories who do not want an election for fear of wipeout + DUP + TIG (who also do not want an election)… that could constitute one-third of the commons which could block an election under the Fixed Term Act.
that would only leave a majority vote of no confidence to force an election – which anti nodeal Tories would have to support. That would be whack!! Nothing is impossible at this stage
HB
Goodness your right wing extremists must be off to planet to qualify.
They are all right wing extremists because they are prepared to wreck the British economy for all the right wing extremist reasons.
Of course they are all megalomaniacal power-hungry right wing extremists as well.
Socrates
‘They are as bad as the Qld Nationals.’
Worse.
‘PaulTu says:
Monday, April 1, 2019 at 5:03 am
I believe that they have all been out under the midday sun too long.’
Haha… so they have gone barking mad.
Most of these posts are looking at/discussing matters as it involves the UK. How might the rest of Europe be thinking? I have no idea about this, but offer a distilled view from someone I was speaking to in Germany after vote 2 and before vote 3. This person was until recently working for an international company with significant financial industry involvement. Their spouse continues to work for the company dealing internationally with Asia and USA as well as within Europe.
The comments boiled down to there was a strong wish within Germany that the UK would just “go away”. They also commented that, while many in Germany were fed up with the UK, there was an even stronger antipathy from France to continue trying to accommodate it.
Would be interested in any viewpoints other PBers might have had from the “European”side.
….and yes, I know France and Germany are not the EU, but their PoV would carry some weight and might possibly reflect the wider view.
BL
The style in this article is vox pop but there are patterns across EU countries. The overwhelming impression is of a massive loss of soft power by the UK.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/12/un-big-mess-how-rest-of-europe-views-brexit
BW,
Thank you for the article. All rather depressing from the overall perspective.
BL, I read Der Spiegel and Deutsche Welle online. The Brexit articles alternate between “just go away already”, disbelief at the wilful damage a good friend is causing themselves, dark humour, anger and hard headed preparation for the fallout, and hope for a miracle. In the last 2 months anger and “just go away” have been climbing.
LR,
That would seem to fit with the overall tone of the discussion I had last week of “enough is enough”.
I can’t quite put my finger on it, but I sense a feeling of triumph from Brexit supporters. Perhaps my feeling stems from the anger of Brexit supporters that was shown to me on TV at having “their” Brexit snatched from them last Friday. I don’t know. The fear is that Brexit (in particular a Hard Brexit) rather than allowing the nation to unify and get on with it will embolden the worst instincts.
Comparing England’s ‘First Brexit’ under Henry VIII with the situation now. David Starkey draws some interesting parallels.
https://www.spiked-online.com/2019/03/22/europe-is-no-blessed-realm-of-sanity/
I too read Deutsche Welle most days. It’s difficult to judge from one news outlet how the average pleb in the streets is thinking on an issue, but one thing has really struck me.
The Brexit latest has been appearing on the front page of the website almost every day for the last few months. Often it’s the lead story. When something actually happens – like a vote in the Commons – the implications are explained in detail.
I find this surprising, because I really didn’t expect the Germans to give a rat’s.
WB already did last week’s Aus Essential poll. Usually I wait for a major poll, and post about that poll with Essential in The Conversation. Owing to the poll drought, I’ve posted on Essential on my personal website.
http://adrianbeaumont.net/national-essential-poll-52-48-to-labor/
Of interest to viewers here are international leaders’ favourable ratings and movements from the last time Essential did these, in July 2018.
Theresa May is tied at 31-31 fav vs unfav, a big fall from a 42-19 fav rating in July 2018. Ardern is up from 54-11 to 71-11 fav, and Merkel and Trump have also fallen.
Ante Meridian
Yeah, it’s interesting. I have some thoughts as to why.
* Brexit is a major shift in the geo-politics of Europe. Germans are in (or perhaps actually are) the geo-political centre of Europe. They care deeply about loss and uncertainty.
* Germans like and respect the British. Britain is a friend.
* Germans all speak English, well the professional class does, and most of the rest can read it.
When you add the theatre of a House of Commons with 600+ shouty people crammed into a tiny space, it is entertaining.
For the first time in history UK will see the end of May before the end of April
Palaly @ #72 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 4:06 pm
Laugh! Thanks.
Why Brexiteers were right to reject Theresa May’s deal, and why it’s right to reject it again if it is brought back.
– By Martin Howe QC, chairman of Lawyers for Britain.
https://lawyersforbritain.org/why-brexiteers-right-to-reject-theresa-mays-deal
All four Brexit options presented in the indicative votes have been rejected by MPs. Here are the margins, the closest being Ken Clarke’s Customs Union proposal, where “Noes” secured a majority of just three:
Customs Union: Loses 273 – 276
Common Market 2.0: Loses 261 – 282
Confirmatory referendum: Loses 280 – 292
Revoke Article 50 in no-deal situation: Loses 191 – 292
Gods, this democracy caper is a crock. Where’s an iron-fisted dictatorship when we really need it?
Oh, and Brexit is the lead story on Deutsche Welle’s website yet again. It’s about two or three times the length of the equivalent post on the ABC, which is on the main page but relegated to a small spot in the top right corner.
Ante Meridian @ #76 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 8:10 am
Yeah. It still has not dawned on them as a group that not deciding on something has the same outcome as deciding for a Hard Brexit. There is this feeling that having decided not to have a Hard Brexit that particular outcome is somehow eliminated.
To my hasty list of yesterday (why the Germans are so interested in Brexit) I could add that Britain’s distant colony of Oz has no skin in the Brexit game, unlike the Germans. So it might be that by comparison we are just uninterested. (And I bet we’re not the only ones. Britain is going to wake up on the day after Brexit Day with a mighty hangover.) A story about AI in Germany caught my attention, and even there Brexit gets a mention as a final nail in the coffin sort of point. (The nail being that the uncertainty is stifling investment.)
So only 160 MPs out of about 630 are positively in favour of a hard Brexit, but they’re going to get what they want because the other 470 can’t agree and won’t compromise. WHAT is in the water in Westminster?
Guardian’s Larry Elliott at #LeftBrexitTour:
> Labour becoming a party of middle class reactionaries who think socialism is having more bike lanes; they are fundamentally conservative people who like the current system.
Paraphrase by @LabourLeave of 1:36 video clip of Elliott speaking included in their tweet:
https://twitter.com/labourleave/status/1112676175426584577
The full quote is better. And I wonder how many on Poll Bludger Elliott’s characterisation also accurately describes.
Late Riser,
I often wonder how in Blazes the Poms and the Germans ended up on opposite sides during two world wars, when the weight of history suggests they should have been ganging-up on the French.
(That was a rhetorical question. I know the history. But it still seems bizarre.)
Hard Brexit plus active use of UK Government’s fiscal power is the way to go.
The EU is a con. It puts neoliberal constraints on national governments – particularly through its insidious use of Investor-State Dispute Settlement provisions, so-called competition policy, and “state aid” rules that limit national government powers to directly fund particular types of services and infrastructure.
The Europhile Left are naive and misguided. They are so busy preening and posing as cosmopolitan that they ignore the practical impacts of the neoliberal rules that the EU requires its member states to observe.
A society can be highly cosmopolitan without being a member of a neoliberal sh++show like the EU.
Brexit was the correct decision. Progressives should embrace it. If they understood how fiscal policy works and if they paid attention to the detail of EU rules, they would not be playing the role of useful idiots who assist a neoliberal political project that has inflicted devastating harm during the past four decades.
The far right has risen because the mainstream Left have been clueless and feckless on the details of economic policy. They need to wise up, and fast.
This author reckons brexit failed because May chose the views of one side only in her brexit process
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/brexit-doomed-how-will-britain-exit-scenarios-eu-11402766
Jack Aranda:
“So only 160 MPs out of about 630 are positively in favour of a hard Brexit, but they’re going to get what they want because the other 470 can’t agree and won’t compromise. WHAT is in the water in Westminster?”
You are 100% spot on. SNP, TIG and Lib Dems are playing silly buggers here, not to mention over 60 abstentions of which a large chunk are the Tory ministry.
I just dont understand why they are bothering with these indicative votes, there is no way May will adopt any of them as government policy. It sounds like the Letwin plan is to find a majority for something, legislate it as binding on the govt, and force Theresa May to rely on it to obtain the long extension. She will resign or try and call an election instead of doing so, which just creates a government vacuum leading into the April 10 EU conference where the extension has to be obtained or else its a no deal default two days later.
There has to be a basis on which a parliamentary majority can align with Theresa May just to get this frikkin extension? I dont think forcing her to adopt a Customs Union etc is the way to do it. Cant they just agree that only a new parliament can take the issue further, and an election to that end and a long extension is the only way forward.
Trouble is that they need 433 MPs to overcome the Fixed Term Act to call an election. 649 – 170 Tories who want a no deal – 7 Sinn Fein – 10 DUP – 20 TIG & Labour… leaves very little room for further opposition to an election.
Can you imagine Theresa May agreeing to and voting in favour of a no confidence motion in her own government (where only 320 or so votes are needed)! Just resigning as Prime Minister doesnt do anything, as i dont know who technically takes her place the next day – without a no confidence vote, i am guessing its David Liddington in a caretaker capacity?
Theresa May is still driving the Titanic here. Doing nothing or calling an election (however its done) still leaves her in power on April 10 unless another govt can be formed that day.
The real negotiation come this weekend has to be a ‘Plan Z’ vote of no confidence in May on like Monday the 8th and the installation of Corbyn purely to request the extension 2 days later. This will require around 50 rebel Tories to play ball – not just Clarke, Grieve, Gymiah types but probably also the Amber Rudd types in their current ministry.
And its not like Jeremy Corbyn can be relied on fully either.
‘Shitshow’ is a very mild understatement
Nicholas @ #81 Tuesday, April 2nd, 2019 – 1:09 pm
Assuming you are right.
a) a Hard Brexit is the way to go
b) the “feckless left” or the “far right” are in charge
What do you think will happen to the majority of the British people?
LR
There is nothing quite as dangerous as a doctrinaire wrecker.
I would love to have been a fly on the wall when Varadker and Merkel had their special discussions.
Nick Boles, the Tory whip who resigned will sit in Parliament as an “independent progressive Conservative”!!
A rare, if not contradictory, bird, that!
There will be so many types of independents!!
swamprat
British governance is a dead parrot.
‘swamprat says:
Tuesday, April 2, 2019 at 4:59 pm
Nick Boles, the Tory whip who resigned will sit in Parliament as an “independent progressive Conservative”!!’
In Australia they have become ‘modern Liberals’.
Boerwar
Oh Modern Liberals!!
Just another neo-liberal, same as the Un-modern Liberals
“Modern Liberal”, when a chronic oxymoron goes acute.
Jonathan Pie really goes to town on this one from week before last. I am just catching up with it and sure others have posted… but it is worth reposting. Not just here but I should put it on the main thread as it resonates across the globe.
I will have to rewatch because it is too powerful and too emotional and packs a lot in to be able to rationally work through it all at once.
Strong language warning. It gets good at 1:40 when he starts talking about the contract.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-IL2XwSkFJQ
Much to the disgust of hard Leavers, Theresa May today said she would meet Jeremy Corbyn in the hope they can work something out on Brexit. She still doesn’t want to participate in EU elections, and is telling the EU that Britain would leave by May 22, the day before the EU elections.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/theresa-may-calls-for-talks-with-jeremy-corbyn-in-bid-to-save-brexit
I’m just a tad sceptical of May’s sincerity.
The French see their chance to stick it to the Brits.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/no-guarantee-eu-would-grant-long-article-50-extension-says-macron
The hard brexiteers fear being ignored.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/i-fear-for-brexit-erg-dismayed-by-may-plan-to-talk-to-corbyn
As PM May finally reaches across the isle.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/apr/02/theresa-may-calls-for-talks-with-jeremy-corbyn-in-bid-to-save-brexit
Too good not to post this image.
I don’t like you.
Shot gun marriage.
Do I have to?
etc.
This guy has been providing flowcharts wrt Brexit. He’s finally given up! But this is his last one:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/29/world/europe/brexit-flowchart-confusion.html?em_pos=small&emc=edit_up_20190401&nl=upshot&nl_art=3&nlid=70388838emc%3Dedit_up_20190401&ref=headline&te=1
C@tmomma, that’s funny! I gave up on my spreadsheet last week. Life got simpler. 🙂
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/brexit-theresa-may-jeremy-corbyn-no-deal-article-50-a8851641.html
I think this piece makes the most sense of the upcoming May-Corbyn summit.
There is minimal likelihood of them agreeing on one compromise brexit plan, so it sounds like May will agree to a showdown vote between her deal and a Corbyn brexit proposal with both sides agreeing to the commons verdict.
I’ll call this a good strategy given the hand she has left. Corbyns plan will hardly go down well, unless he consults Clarke/Boles and compromises with them. The SNP, TIG, LimDems and even the DUP will have to back it as the lesser of two evils – as opposed to stupidly continuing to oppose/abstain. There will be defections across Tory-Lab lines but presumably the bulk of the Tories will have to unite behind May’s deal? It could be quite close.
Either way May is done but has a chance of going out a winner…
Hopefully Corbyn will not be suckered into this and just insist on a long extension which a parliamentary majority will surely back. But he is a f&^/ing unreliable idiot, so you never know.
A bit late, but I just discovered this brilliant analogy – James Acaster on Mock the Week 2 years ago:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xm6Id3Qt8Wk
Expat
No chance of the DUP, under any circumstances, supporting May’s deal in its current form. They simply cannot support a backstop, their party would completely fracture. It’s about as likely as Sinn Fein coming in to take their seats and vote.
I saw mentioned on the other thread that May has had advice that no deal would result in British troups having to go back in to Northern Ireland. Well surprise! I could have told her that. Just another example, as if we needed any more, of how badly Brexit has been thought through. Even if a deal can be reached, there’s no guarantee that Brexit won’t see an increase in tensions.