BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor

Movement to the Coalition on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, after a better-than-usual result in the only new federal poll for the week.

With Newspoll holding its fire over the weekend of the New South Wales state election, the only new federal poll of the week came from Essential Research, which produced a relatively strong result for the Coalition. The BludgerTrack aggregate accordingly moves slightly in their favour, with Labor’s lead down from 53.3-46.7 to 52.9-47.1. This translates into a gain for the Coalition of two on the seat projection, with New South Wales and Victoria providing one apiece.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,589 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.9-47.1 to Labor”

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  1. From one of the articles yaba linked:

    https://www.ammoniaenergy.org/man-energy-solutions-an-ammonia-engine-for-the-maritime-sector/

    “For decades, the argument for ammonia as a fuel has been stymied by the chicken-and-egg dilemma. Without demand, there was no product; and without the product, demand was invisible. This is changing. With the International Maritime Organization’s Initial GHG Strategy calling for a 50% reduction in maritime emissions by 2050, there is tremendous demand for a viable carbon-free fuel.”

    This election, the omens are that we could end up with a Govt that is forward looking enough to actually get that. And, from what i have seen the ALP are considering industry and job transition issues that arise from a move away from Coal and fossil fuels to protect as much as possible the great unwashed who will lose existing jobs and have to find others in the process.

  2. But I see your point AE. I would like to see a benefit analysis of a government owned car manufacturer selling EVs at a set price and the government make up the difference.

    Lada anyone?

    I have driven a Lada. At speed. Along a Kazak ‘highway’. I am all for the market on this one.

  3. ‘Nicholas says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 5:19 pm

    I share many of the goals of UBI proponents but I see the UBI as a poor mechanism to achieve them.’

    I suggest you raise this with Di Natale. Typical Greens policy: wRONg.

  4. And you arent dead?? Impressive.

    I was more scared of Mrs Katich at the time. Not an impressed young lady. But when with Russians….

  5. Having just changed over from the Toyota Prius C to a Corolla Hybrid I’m amazed at the improvement in overall performance and despecially that cruising at 110kmph the Corolla is only using electricity which never happened in the Prius C. I am very confident in the future for EV cars, just not sure what I’ll replace my trusty HiLux single cab with.

  6. From the Murphy article.

    “Will this policy happen, even if Labor wins?

    Another big question. The Coalition is not showing any sign of having a substantial conversion on climate change. Labor will likely need the Greens to get various changes legislated and the Greens will want a higher level of ambition than is evident in this policy. The Greens will want Labor to execute a faster transition away from coal, and they are already saying no to the use of international permits. So it’s entirely possible that the long unproductive deadlock will continue. We have a long way to go.”

    I’m all fine with the Greens having a “higher level of ambition” and reasonably pushing that.
    However, the Greens will fwark themselves as far as credibility goes if they stand too hard on demands. Maybe the ALP policy will not go as far and fast as people want, but from my reading of it its something they can act on as politcally do-able in the near term. When the Greens get to form a Govt they can go faster. 🙂 But, they should NOT block action now. We really are at the stage with this where perfect is the enemy of a good start and getting real stuff done..

  7. “Simon was in no danger, he had a Kazakh local with him.”

    Wonder if our Simon picked up a mankini while he was there or if Mrs Katich sensibly vetoed that?? 🙂

  8. Borat hadnt been invented at the time.

    And I only wear sensible clothing.

    Or none. Which can also be sensible. Depending on the company.

  9. BW and Nicholas,
    I don’t know what the Green Party UBI proposal entails in terms of mechanisms to make it work, but I have great sympathy for the concept.
    It really isn’t fair to suggest the entire $360 Billion pricetag, as you have an immediate saving of $190 Billion doing away with the plethora of existing various welfare payments.
    There are many billions of savings to be had also in the reduced compliance cost when you do away with means testing, robodebt schemes, and a huge complaince bureaucracy.
    You could then include the UBI in the tax free threshold for taxpayers, [while increasing the threshold by some proportion] gaining more revenue / transeferring more wealth to those in greater need.

    My understanding is that where trialled and implemented UBI has not been as great a disincentive to work as people fear it will be. Certainly the current dole does not provide a huge disnicentive.

    The gain in dignity is very hard to quantify, and I agree could be come at from other angles. A JG strikes me as somewhat close to “Work for the dole” – moving it towards the category of stuff loved by mean spirited conservatives. The scope for beating up on disadvantaged, chaotic people hampered by a background of adverse childhood events is huge. {Good old reciprocal obligations} Incentive-wise people will always be better off when they add paid work to their Govmt benefit, so it will always be better to seek paid employment.

    A car would be great too.

  10. Adam Bandt Twitter:

    “There are a couple of good ideas in ALP climate announcement, but overall it’s a dog’s breakfast of Liberal party leftovers, with no plan for coal & no hope of meeting Paris Agreement goals.

    #Greens will work to kick out conservatives then toughen up ALP’s proposals in Senate.”

  11. d-money
    That gross price tag is considerably MORE than the total available revenue*.
    I am aware that there are savings.
    What I don’t see are comprehensive costings.

    *bearing in mind that the Greens will gut revenue as well as cause mass capital flight with their various insane posturings including the immediate total destruction of the coal, cotton, uranium industries as well as their plan to foil such nuclear weapons deployment facilities as airports, ports and communication systems.

  12. ‘1934pc says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 5:47 pm

    Auditor-General launches probe into Home Affairs offshore contracts’

    The Auditor General has some power but not nearly the same power as an RC. I do hope that the Labor Government has a conga line of Royal Commissions to sink the various criminal enterprises of the Coalition Government.

  13. It is critical for people who care about stopping Global Warming to vote for Labor rather than the Greens. The latter have form when it comes to stopping effective, indeed ANY, action on Global Warming.

  14. Boerwar @ #1286 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 4:02 pm

    It goes something like this: 500,000 times $15000 for a People’s Car divided by four years of forward estimates = a bit less than two billion a year.

    You may have forgotten to carry the one from when lots of people decide to briefly churn onto Newstart and then off again to get their free (potentially electric!) car. 🙂

  15. ar
    Your point is right but it does not matter.
    Maximum cost for a million Newstart people might be around $4 billion a year. Chicken feed.
    In fact you could couple it with the policy of getting rid of the fossil fleet.
    The killer with Newstart is that it disables further people whom the system already disables.
    The whole point of a car is that it does the exact opposite.

  16. Greens climate response is certainly a bit lame and predictable.
    No credit at all given to ALP for aiming for something actually achievable

  17. ‘d-money says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 6:03 pm

    Greens climate response is certainly a bit lame and predictable.
    No credit at all given to ALP for aiming for something actually achievable’

    Sad, but true.

  18. From all I’m reading today, the Greens are going to refuse to back anything except the “pure” solution to climate change. Last week SHY was forecasting much the same for the MDB. The patronising “We know best” is becoming soooo frustrating. Why can’t they ever compromise…

  19. As others have commented the article by Katherine Murphy.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/apr/01/labors-climate-change-policy-explained-heres-what-we-know

    It ends with this.

    Even if Labor wins … The Greens will want Labor to execute a faster transition away from coal, and they are already saying no to the use of international permits. So it’s entirely possible that the long unproductive deadlock will continue.

    That is an interesting way to put it. The sentiment is that at least Labor wants to do something. Unfortunately the Greens may veto that and they have already started.

    This is pro-Labor, and anti-Green.

  20. Adam Bandt Twitter:

    “There are a couple of good ideas in ALP climate announcement, but overall it’s a dog’s breakfast of Liberal party leftovers, with no plan for coal & no hope of meeting Paris Agreement goals.

    #Greens will work to kick out conservatives then toughen up ALP’s proposals in Senate.”

    The Greens stuff it up last time; we cannot afford another round of nonsense. Lets hope they are not is a position to stuff it up this time.

  21. lizzie @ #1329 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 6:11 pm

    From all I’m reading today, the Greens are going to refuse to back anything except the “pure” solution to climate change. Last week SHY was forecasting much the same for the MDB. The patronising “We know best” is becoming soooo frustrating. Why can’t they ever compromise…

    Because they know that the way to their continued electoral relevancy goes through speaking out of their …

    Or, to put it another way, they have realised, as much as the Coalition do, that they prosper by attacking Labor.

  22. “Greens will work to kick out conservatives then toughen up ALP’s proposals in Senate.”
    With Liberal party support I suspect.

    As usual Greens being totally delusional … like eunuchs in a harem

  23. frednk @ #1331 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 6:13 pm

    Adam Bandt Twitter:

    “There are a couple of good ideas in ALP climate announcement, but overall it’s a dog’s breakfast of Liberal party leftovers, with no plan for coal & no hope of meeting Paris Agreement goals.

    #Greens will work to kick out conservatives then toughen up ALP’s proposals in Senate.”

    The Greens stuff it up last time; we cannot afford another round of nonsense. Lets hope they are not is a position to stuff it up this time.

    Will Labor choose to compromise with the right instead of the Greens again ?

  24. Boerwar @ #1325 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 6:00 pm

    It looks like Biden is going down by way of #metoo. And quite rightly, too, IMO.

    Unlike Trump, who became President by screwing porn actresses while his wife was tending to their new-born son. But the Democrats, like Labor, are always going to be held to a higher standard than their political opponents, and that ain’t right, imo. All should be held to the same standard. Or else you’re a hypocrite.

  25. Boerwar @ #1318 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 5:53 pm

    ‘Zoidlord says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 5:48 pm

    Adam Bandt Twitter:’

    Effin totally predictable.

    And so scared are the ABC of annoying their masters that they use the Greens via Adam Bandt to criticise ALP policy instead of the LNP this time.

    Aso effin predictable.

  26. LR

    ‘Late Riser says:
    Monday, April 1, 2019 at 6:18 pm

    Boerwar @ #1330 Monday, April 1st, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    What is the year at which more Australian were born after that year than before that year?

    How far back are you going? And presumably you mean counting backwards from today? Either way I don’t know. Context?’

    I assume that there is some sort of moving date which divides the Australian population exactly in half: those born before and those born after.

  27. Greens climate response is entirely predictable. Nobody should kid themselves about the way the Greens will deal with the next Labor government; exactly the way they dealt with the Rudd Labor government, and at times even the Gillard Labor government. Give us what we want or we’ll wreck the joint. The Greens see Labor governments as their perfect political opportunity. If Labor refuses to give them what they want, they block and obstruct, then claim Labor betrayal. This has worked for them politically in the past, but I think more people are on to it now. This is why the ideal situation for Labor, short of gaining an outright Senate majority which almost certainly won’t happen, is to have a Senate with multiple paths for passing legislation which do not involve the Greens. The less Labor have to work with the Greens, the better.

  28. “#Greens will work to kick out conservatives then toughen up ALP’s proposals in Senate.”

    The Greens will get nothing with that attitude. Nothing.

    The best, only and dare I say it last way to actually obtain the sort of policy ambition that Pegarex craves is for Labor to implement its policy to the letter in its first term and then say to the public:

    “There. We kept our word and delivered no surprises. The sky hasn’t fallen in. Now trust us to be more ambitious for our next term”.

    Trust in politics is fractured. A new government that keeps its word grows its political capital to be even more ambitious in the medium or long term.

    Regrettably and frustratingly I can virtually guarantee that the Greens will actively work against the restoration of public trust in government whilst labor is in power for the simply reason that if labor is successful it makes the Greens redundant.

  29. This is why the ideal situation for Labor, short of gaining an outright Senate majority which almost certainly won’t happen, is to have a Senate with multiple paths for passing legislation which do not involve the Greens. The less Labor have to work with the Greens, the better.

    Then they can have their hissy fits over in the corner of the Senate And. No. One. Will. Care.

    But we’ll be watching and counting how many times THEY line up to vote with the Coalition.

  30. A strategy of framing failure to get your way as “failure to compromise” might just mean that the word “compromise” is not really understood. Or to be generous, perhaps the compromise is about something else entirely. The last time I bought a car this was made very plain.

  31. Rex

    The Greens and Tim Storer need acknowledgement for their work on EV’s and the move to implementation.

    So every Labor policy announcement that the Green’s could possibly claim as positive needs to start with “Before we make this announcement, we would like to acknowledge the traditional owners (since 1996) of these policies….”

    For this who lack a sense of irony, please note that I am only taking the piss out of a particular group of Johnny Come Lately’s who seem to think they discovered progressive policy between 1990 and 1996, and who refuse to reference any sources that suggest that progressive policy did in fact exist prior to 1996.

    From my point of view, it is incredibly important that we do acknowledge the actual traditional owners of our land, and bring this acknowledgement and respect into our everyday lives. My grandson is especially proud of being able to sing songs in the local Gadigal language, a few months after starting school.

  32. Boerwar, currently living or all births back to pre-history? Again I don’t know the answer, but if it is all people ever born in Australia (which excludes me) then the question may not have a precise answer. Cumulative birth graphs might give a hint at an answer. But if it is only people living perhaps the median age is the clue. ?? Sorry.

  33. Anyone who doesn’t remember the Greens behaviour on the CPRS and what they did to Gillard on the Carbon Tax or doesn’t think that they will do it all over again are either uninformed, deluded or off their meds.

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