Newspoll have held off this week owing to the New South Wales election, resulting in one of the occasional three week gaps in their schedule. However, the fortnightly Essential Research will come through as normal this (i.e. Monday) evening. In other non-New South Wales news, moderate faction nominee and Christopher Pyne ally James Stewart won the Liberal preselection for Sturt on Saturday, consistent with expectations and despite resistance from conservatives who sought to make hay from the fact that the moderates had chosen not to back a woman. We also have a front page headline in The Australian this morning that reads, “Gladys triumph: PM eyes May 11”. Beyond that, over to you.
a r
It’s first past the post. The previous Tory Government had an absolute majority in the Commons on 37% of the vote !!
“On those numbers Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, and SNP have the numbers to stop Brexit. Or at least call a second referendum.”
Only the Parliament can do that and it won’t.
Davidwh @ #352 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 5:48 pm
Apologies for missing your guess. I tried to watch both threads, and did have you down as “52 / 48 Davidwh *doubtful” for Newspoll. I’ve now got that as your guess for Essential as well.
Thanks LR. Has anyone tweeted WOW yet?
If WB is OK with a long post, here is the full list of guesses for tomorrow’s Essential.
PB-Guess: Essential 2019-03-26
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
PB mean: ALP 53.3 to 46.7 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 58
ALP / LNP
54 / 46 (?)andy Murray
53 / 47 a r *until the election
53 / 47 Al Pal
53 / 47 Andrew_Earlwood
52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
54 / 46 BK
52 / 48 booleanbach
54 / 46 briefly
53 / 47 Burgey
52 / 48 chinda63
53 / 47 Clem Attlee
52 / 48 Confessions
55 / 45 d-money
54.7239618 / 45.2760382 Dan Gulberry *essential permanent
52 / 48 Davidwh
55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
52 / 48 Douglas and Milko
54 / 46 EB *permanent
54 / 46 Fozzie Logic *permanent
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
55 / 45 Gecko
54 / 46 Granny Anny
53 / 47 Goll
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
53 / 47 imacca
57 / 43 KayJay – all next polls
53 / 47 klasib
52 / 48 Late Riser
52 / 48 Marcos De Feilittt
55 / 45 martini henry
51.5 / 48.5 Matt
53 / 47 Matt31
53 / 47 max
52 / 48 MM
54 / 46 Mr Ed
53 / 47 pica
52 / 48 Player One
53 / 47 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar *perpetuity
55 / 45 Question * until the election
53 / 47 Red13
55 / 45 rhwombat *chastened
55 / 45 Scott
53 / 47 SilentMajority
56 / 44 Simon² Katich® *eternal
54 / 46 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar *Newspoll March 31
53 / 47 sonar *permanent
53 / 47 steve davis
52 / 48 Steve777
52 / 48 sustainable future
53 / 47 Terminator
53 / 47 Tricot
53 / 47 Victoria
53 / 47 Wayne
53 / 47 Yabba
51 / 49 Zoidlord
I’ll stick with 52-48, even though I now regard it as optimistic.
How long do you think the Daley step down can be milked by the media boosters of the LNP, state & fed?
How crap is Corbyn that labour is t leading against that lot
mikehilliard
All the way until the Federal election.
I have noticed a few comment today saying that Labor just need to come out and counter The Fed Libs negative messages with a strong positive campaign. This only works if the media give them any air, and all the signs are that the MSM and the ABC are looking for negative stories about Labor. This is probably understandable, because negative stories generate many more clicks.
Also, as I have posted here a few times, I was at a function where Julia Gillard spoke last year, and she said that it would be very hard for Labor to win the Federal election in 2019 – there are just to many vested interested with too much money to allow this to happen. I thought she was being unduly pessimistic, but I now agree with her.
And I think one of the most powerful narrative is “Labor are going to win, momentum is with them”, and then about a week before: “oh dear Labor have just shat on our nice new rug – obviously not house trained enough yet, best stick with he Government we have”.
Looking at the NSW election, if the media had not raised expectations about a Labor win (which seemed impossible as recently as October last year), we would probably now be saying, well Labor did OK, and we did not expect them to win this election. Instead we are wringing our hands about Labor snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. And this vibe is all-pervasive, and the swinging voters have bought into it.
The MSM are now using the NSW Liberal’s “great patriotic victory” as evidence that the tide will also turn against Labor federally, and I think it is a very effective strategy, especially combined with the “Retiree Tax”, “Coalition is doing something about climate change, but as effectively as Labor, but with less risk”, “Labor’s negative gearing and CGT changes will lower the value of your property and make rent more expensive” scare campaigns.
“How long do you think the Daley step down can be milked by the media boosters of the LNP, state & fed?”
I don’t think what happens in NSW matters in the next federal election. The election is already lost for the government in most of the other states. The Coalition holding ground in its prize state is meaningless.
C@t
You think they would spell Scot correctly….
Next week it will be Michael Who?
“Retiree Tax” is a filthy LIE and should be called out.
What Labor intends to do is stop giving rich people free money.
C@t
Why do they think that strategy will work, when it’s done nothing for them in the past?
They’re desperate and they’re cactus.
Douglas and Milko
Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 7:30 pm
Comment #360
Could you please lie to me. Tell me about the program to capture an image of a black hole. Sing “All Things Bright and Beautiful”. Mention that Ms. Julia was joshing. Send a delegation of reformed Elvis Impersonators to tuck me in my little bed.
♫Say it isn’t ♪so
(It Isn’t ♫So)
Now ♫Say It isn’t ♪So
(It isn’t ♫so)
Now♪ Say It isn’t ♫so
(It isn’t ♫so)
Oh, ♫Say it isn’t ♪so
(♫It isn’t ♪so)
And so to 📺 maybe Project Blue Book then peace 🕊 and 💤
I don’t believe the NSW result and Daley will have any impact on the federal election where the result has been locked in for quite a while.
So, the cotton industry is killing the Nationals.
Who’d have thought?
D&M @7:30PM.
“…and she [Julia Gillard] said that it it would be very hard for Labor to win the Federal election in 2019 – there are just to many vested interested with too much money to allow this to happen. “
That has always been my concern. We are about to see a massive campaign of smear, disinformation and outright lies from the Coalition and their media and business allies. Some here have said the “Liberals” are broke. It doesn’t matter, they have the full resources of Newscorp and many big businesses, including the Miners, Big Banks, Agribusiness, etc etc at their disposal, not to mention taxpayer funds.
Labor needs to be aware of this and plan accordingly. The mainstream media will ignore, bury, distort or misrepresent their message. Labor needs a counter-strategy.
I think we have been teleported to Memphis with our feet ten feet off the Beale.
A million dead fish voted with the fins and the SFFs are the beneficiaries.
7.30 Report showing a few hundred Brexiteers marching but ignoring a million plus Remain march.
Absurd.
Oh… they are now on the Leave march.
What about the 4.6 million signatures?
Re C@t @7:28PM.
Why is that document appearing under an Australian Government letterhead?
Memphis Beale?
@Burgey: Remember that Labour are up against Fleet Street as well as the Tories. Not just the NewsCorpse crap (expected), but all of Fleet Street – including outlets one might normally expect to be sympathetic to Labour. As one example, the Guardian let rip with anti-Corbyn stories the day after he put his hand up for the leadership, and they haven’t stopped at any point since. The Guardian; not the Daily Telegraph, or the Times, or the Daily Mail, because those outlets almost always oppose Labour. Normally Labour can at least count on getting a fair hearing from the Guardian and similar left-leaning outlets – but not with Corbyn. It’s like Fleet Street lost its collective marbles when they realized that a Soshulist (gawsp!) was running for leadership of a major Parliamentary party – and that he was actually serious about it.
The entire UK media apparatus (both TV and print) had it in for him from Day One onward, and the resounding shock/silence/stupefaction on Fleet Street as the results came in was one of the sweetest moments of the 2017 UK election. Sadly, it produced no noticeable lasting change in the tone of their “coverage” of UK Labour – if anything, Labour’s near-win prompted them to step up their campaign of character assassination against Corbyn – but it was still sweet to see.
Evening all.
I think Daley stepping aside is the right thing.
Has Guytaur been around lately? I don’t remember seeing him comment at all during election night which given he lives in NSW surprised me.
Re Newspoll prediction: Put me down for 51/49. The media’s campaign to normalize Scummo has worked a treat; the punters are now looking upon him as somewhat akin to your overly-religious-but-nice uncle.
Re Daley, by stepping aside he is just following what has become the standard procedure for a losing party leader – announce that they are quitting the leadership, if not in their concession speech, then shortly thereafter. Then leave Parliament at a time that is not too damaging to the party.
There are exceptions. An Opposition Leader who takes their party from way behind to within striking distance, e.g. Abbott 2010, Shorten 2016.
Thanks to his own stupidity , a lot more people have been made aware that Scott Morisson wanted to exploit community fears of muslims, I am not sure that will play out too well in the polls.
Steve777:
I read that Daley is still intending to contest the leadership, but admittedly this could change.
Three minute add of people praising Tony Abbott including Brett Lee.
Always thought he was overrated as a bowler
BW sorry if I confused you. Kayjay’s post made me think of Elvis, Memphis and Beale Street. Now I can’t get that song out of my head.
What does Brett Lee see as Abbott’s shining attributes?
But how about that acting career?
Davidwh says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 7:48 pm
I think we have been teleported to Memphis with our feet ten feet off the Beale.
————————————
Boy are you a Christian, Mam I am tonight.
Is the hotel at Beale Street, Memphis, the building Elvis left?
How long will it take for buyer’s remorse to set in, in NSW?
It’s still the same rubbish gov’t that stank up until a week or so ago.
I think Daley has done the best thing: stepping down but leaving room to recontest. It obviates attacks on his comments not being taken seriously by Labor and NSW can delay the messiness of a leadership challenge. Good result.
I totally disagree with the NZ censor over banning the gunman’s manifesto. You can read literally millions of pages of nutcase garbage on the internet or in books, including Mein Kampf but you can’t read how that dickhead thought and went off the rails. Sticking your head in the sand doesn’t work.
“The ban, issued on Saturday, means anybody caught with the document on their computer could face up to 10 years in prison, while anyone caught sending it could face 14 years.”
Steve777 says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 8:37 pm
Is the hotel at Beale Street, Memphis, the building Elvis left? No that was first used at a concert in Shreveport, Louisiana but often used to stop the chant for an encore at Elvis concerts. I have always thought of Elvis as a wasted talent. He was a great blues/ soul singer who was wasted on pop.
However, I give NZ props for going after individual publishers instead of acting like it’s Facebook/Google/Twitter’s job to police that sort of thing.
Ahh Kay Jay
You have made my night 🙂
I actually think that the Coalition will really snatch defeat from the jaws of victory – if they can keep playing the “progressive but sensible” and “united happy family” for the next 6 weeks, I will be surprised. It will be an interesting 6 weeks actually. If they do keep it together, I will have to ask “What’s changed” after 6 years of trying to kill each other.
What if your crazy RWNJ uncle emails it to you?
If it’s not too late I’m thinking 51/49 for Essential.
Feeling slightly less optimstic than S777
Steve777 @ #373 Monday, March 25th, 2019 – 7:56 pm
Sorry to break my vow of silence, but it’s almost tomorrow. 🙂
Now, I got that document off David Donovan’s(Editor of Independent Australia) facebook page. He is not the sort of person to succumb to a hoax but, you never know. However, could it be the meeting in the PMO that Red13 said was happening this morning? I mean, Tim Wilson used Commonwealth letterheads for his partisan roadshow didn’t he?
Anyway, if it’s real it’s good to know. If it’s not it’s a useful precis of a likely strategy from the Liberals/Coalition anyway.
Anyhoo, back to the Trappist Monastery. 😉
Watching 4 Corners on ABC
Leading with report of NZ shooting.
No reticence naming shooter on this program, which is exactly what the shooter wanted, as shown by fact he did not ask for his name to be suppressed by the court.
This program is actually treating him sympathetically
Not happy ABC
Maude Lynne says:
Monday, March 25, 2019 at 8:38 pm
How long will it take for buyer’s remorse to set in, in NSW?
It’s still the same rubbish gov’t that stank up until a week or so ago.
————————————
I have a theory that I call the Keating principal. The theory is that unpopular governments are often returned at elections because opposition is not acceptable for some reason. The voters then spend the next government term in simmering anger before throwing them out at the net election. I call it the Keating principal because I first observed it at the 1993 election when Keating won against all prediction to then be thrashed 3 years later. I have since seen it repeated a number of times. I suspect or maybe hope that we have just seen it in NSW.
Oh yeah, Lismore Labor are legends! Janelle Saffin will put the cat among the pigeons of Macquarie Street.
Outliers have more fun.