New South Wales election live

Live coverage of the counting for the New South Wales state election. One exit poll for starters shows Labor set to gain Coogee from the Liberals.

10.28pm. The Nationals look to have gone off the boil in Lismore, in another turn in fortunes for that seat. By this I mean they are trailing Labor in the two-candidate preferred count. But Labor are still coming third behind the Greens on the primary vote, and I think you can give it to the Greens if they stay there.

10.25pm. I’ve been casting around for information on the below-the-line upper house voting rate at past elections. I’ve come up with a figure of 2.1% at the 2011 election, which is lower than I would have thought. If we bump that up to 3%, which is two-thirds of a quota. That leaves well over two quotas for parties whose vote totals we have no idea about. If any one of them — David Leyonhjelm, say, can get about a quarter of that, they should be in business.

10.21pm. Gladys Berejiklian victory speech concluded.

10.16pm. The Legislative Council count is 18.45% through, and while this is completely unmatched and might swing around, we’ve got seven quotas for the Coalition, six for Labor, two for the Greens, one apiece for One Nation and Shooters, and four to be accounted for. The Coalition has enough of a surplus to be in the hunt for one of those; Labor doesn’t, at least on the current numbers. One Nation is in the hunt on the current numbers, but I guess they will fade as more big booths in Sydney report. Ditto Shooters. The Christian Democrats and Animal Justice look possibilities, but I wouldn’t go any further than that. The big wild card is that 2.93 quotas are identified by the Electoral Commission as “others”, that includes not only the outstanding parties, but all below-the-line votes. There is plenty of room in that for David Leyonhjelm, but since it also includes all below-the-lines, we really need more information.

9.46pm. The Nationals now have a handy looking lead in the two-party count against Labor, but the Greens are ahead on the primary vote, and will probably win if they stay there. One way or another, this one’s staying on the watch list.

9.41pm. Michael Daley has conceded to Gladys Berejiklian and will shortly give his concession speech.

9.32pm. The view around the room is that East Hills is falling out of Labor’s reach.

9.18pm. Upper Hunter is very close – I’ve been leaving it off my potential list of Coalition losses. That list has fairly consistently been four or five seats, with its composition changing over time.

9.16pm. Labor have fallen behind in East Hills according to the Nine count, but not the ABC’s (yet). I think you would rather be the Nationals than the Shooters in Barwon at this stage, but nor would you call lit.

9.04pm. Another seat you can’t give away if only because of the slow count is Penrith, where the Liberals are ahead but not by ahead to be definitive about it, with only 22.6% counted on the primary and 12.8% on two-party. Pre-polls could transform the situation here, one way or another, and we may have to wait beyond this evening for a meaningful picture there.

8.58pm. Finally, an update in Auburn, and it’s looking better for Labor now, but will still require monitoring.

8.52pm. Other than that, there have been a number of dogs that haven’t barked. The count in Kogarah is painfully slow, but Labor is in front, and that’s the only evidence of a Chinese backlash effect – Labor has a fairly solid swing in the other supposedly endangered seat, Strathfield. The Nationals have done okay on the northern coast, contrary to expectations. And the Liberals have held up in their south-eastern seats of Goulburn and Bega.

8.50pm. Antony is calling Dubbo as lineball, whereas my sense was that the Nationals were doing okay. So there’s a fifth seat the Coalition might potentially lose.

8.40pm. Hard to identify the six seats that would cost the Coalition its majority. All I’m seeing is East Hills and Coogee to Labor, both only maybes (particularly East Hills). Barwon, under threat from Shooters, is looking better for the Nationals now, but the Shooters continue to look strong in Murray. I would also note that in Auburn, where the count is particularly slow, the very early numbers have the Liberals in the lead.

8.31pm. Labor look like they might win East Hills and Oatley, but beyond that gains for them are hard to identify. Lismore remains a very confusing picture, but the Nationals have strengthened there. Shooters look good in all three of their target seats. Other than that, it looks like a remarkably stable result. The Greens look like retaining their three seats; the two independents have retained their seats, but don’t look like being joined by any new ones. The Nationals have not suffered as expected on the northern coast: Tweed and Upper Hunter look good for them.

8.16pm. I’m painting a somewhat less favourable picture for the Coalition because I’m focused only on seats where the count is seriously advanced, of which there are remarkably few. But the Nationals look okay in Tweed and Upper Hunter, which Labor seriously needed to win.

8.14pm. Antony Green says he thinks the government has been returned, and the only question is majority or minority.

8.12pm. General consternation at the slow speed of the count, or at least the slow rate at which results are being uploaded to the media feed, which also seem to contain some anomalies.

8.05pm. The surprisingly good picture for the Greens seems to be holding: they look like they’ve retained Balmain and Newtown, it looks very encouraging for them in Ballina, and the picture in Lismore remains as before – the Nationals struggling, and an open question as whether it would fall to the Greens or Labor.

8.02pm. Looking very close in Upper Hunter. I’m currently seeing a 1.7% swing to Labor, with a Nationals margin of 2.2%. They

7.52pm. And Labor look to be ahead in Kogarah, although there is a swing against them. Labor’s Chris Minns is down about 4.4% on the primary vote and the Liberals are up 2.5% – not enough for Labor to lose given their 6.9% margin. This is from six booths out of 28 on the primary vote and 13.3% counted.

7.51pm. Right on cue, Chris Uhlmann just said Labor scrutineers say they believe they will win Strathfield.

7.50pm. Encouraging numbers for Labor from Strathfield, given this was expected to be part of any Chinese backlash. Jodi McKay is up about 3% on the primary vote, and the Liberals are down about 4.5%, with seven booths in on the primary vote and 18.8% counted.

7.41pm. From what we’re seeing so far, the Greens seem to be doing surprisingly well. The first numbers in Ballina show a strong swing in their favour; they are in the hunt in Lismore; and Antony called Newtown for them, although perhaps too early.

7.38pm. Really tight three-cornered contest in Lismore. The Nationals are down nearly 5% on the primary vote, on which they will need to improve. Lineball based on current numbers as to whether Labor or the Greens will make the final count against them. Unless the Nationals improve – which they certainly may – the seat will go to whoever wins the Labor-Greens race.

7.32pm. Talking Blue Mountains a lot because the count is progressing particularly well there. It does look like there’s a modest swing to Labor of 3% to 4%, based on eight booths on the primary vote and 17.4% counted.

7.24pm. That big swing to Labor in Blue Mountains has disappeared, but they are still on track to retain their margin of 8%.

7.20pm. Early primary votes looking good for Shooters in Murray, although this could be missing geographic variability.

7.17pm. Antony says the Greens will win Newtown very easily. Latest numbers from Upper Hunter look less good for Labor than the ones I’ve counted earlier — no swing projected on the two-party figures that I’m seeing.

7.14pm. With 5.4% of the primary vote counted in Lismore, the Greens are down about 3.4%, the Nationals are down about 2.5%, and Labor are unchanged. That would get Labor into the final count ahead of the Greens, which they narrowly failed to do last time, and then to narrowly defeat the Nationals.

7.07pm. Based on five booths and 3.1% of the electoral roll counted, Philip Donato has a clear primary vote majority in Orange.

7.01pm. Good early results for Labor in Blue Mountains, with three booths in on the primary vote — Labor is on 48.5%, which compares with 38.4% in the same booths in 2015.

6.58pm. With 4% of the primary vote counted in Upper Hunter, the Nine system is projecting a 3.5% two-party swing to Labor in Upper Hunter, which would be sufficient to get Labor up by 1.3%. However, this is based on speculative preference flows.

6.31pm. First booth from Orange is 288 votes from Spring Hill Public, and there’s a good sign for Shooters member Philip Donato, who is up from 41.1$ to 57.3% on the primary vote.

6.25pm. Mulgoa Electorate Manager’s Office wins the prize for first booth to report. Splits 120-31 to the Liberals, which is a big swing in their favour for what that’s worth (i.e. nothing).

6pm. Let the record note that polls have closed.

5.25pm. The YouGov Galaxy exit poll for the Nine Network has primary vote numbers very similar to Newspoll’s, with the Coalition on 41% (the same), Labor on 36% (one point higher) and the Greens on 9% (one point lower). Two-party preferred is 50-50, compared with Newspoll’s 51-49 to the Coalition. However, the poll is from the state’s 16 most marginal seats, rather than statewide. A set of numbers from the 2015 election is provided for purposes of comparison, so the precise way to read this is to compare the results just noted with the following set of numbers: 53.1-46.9 to the Coalition on two-party preferred, and primary votes of Coalition 45.9%, Labor 36.1% and Greens 9.7%. In other words, the poll suggests a 3.1% swing to Labor, which is almost identical to Newspoll’s 3.3%.

Two-party breakdowns are provided for western Sydney and “regional” – I’m not sure of the precise dimensions of the latter. These have it at 50-50 in western Sydney, a 2.7% swing to Labor since 2015, and 51-49 to the Coalition in regional New South Wales, a swing of 3.5%, which is one point more favourable to the Coalition than the Newspoll result. The sample for the poll is 1666.

5.04pm. The Coogee exit poll has the Liberals crashing from 46.6% to 31% and Labor up from 32.5% to 41%. It does not appear there is a two-party figure, but with the Liberal margin at 2.9%, you can take it for granted that this points to an emphatic win for Labor. The poll was conducted by Lonergan Research for Greenpeace and the Nature Conservation Council from a sample of 1482.

5pm. One hour until polls close. I’m behind the scenes at Channel Nine’s election night coverage – they have YouGov Galaxy exit polling that will go live in 15 minutes. I have it in my hands right now, but I’ll spare you the “wow” routine. Greenpeace has put out a Lonergan Research exit poll of Coogee that apparently shows Labor set to gain the seat from the Liberals, in line with expectations. I’ll have a summary of that poll with you very shortly.

To get the ball rolling, I’ll repaste what I posted last night about how the NSWEC is approaching the count. We will not be privy to as much counting of pre-poll results on election night as we have lately grown accustomed. All we are promised is incomplete progress counts of the primary vote from pre-poll voting centres, which will presumably posted quite late on the night. That means no pre-poll results on two-party preferred, which could well leave us hanging in more seats than usual at the end of the night. Some postals will be counted on the night – I can’t tell you if this will just be primary votes or if it will include two-party totals as well.

The Legislative Council count on the night will be unusual, in that the only things that are specifically being tallied are above-the-line votes for the Coalition, Labor, the Greens, Shooters, the Christian Democrats, Animal Justice and One Nation. Beyond that, an “others” total will be published that will include above-the-line votes for everyone else, and below-the-line votes for all and sundry (including votes that will prove, on closer inspection, to be informal). Among other things, this means those of you hanging on the electoral prospects of David Leyonhjelm will go to bed disappointed.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

689 comments on “New South Wales election live”

Comments Page 2 of 14
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  2. Can somebody clarify whether this Galaxy exit poll is for 16 marginal seats. If so, then I did not participate in a marginal seat

  3. Libs/nats combined primary vote in 2015 was 45.9% and still lost 15 seats

    If the libs/nats combined is around 41% = they are a chance of losing up to 13 seats , which put them out of minority government

  4. “Daley can’t win based on Williams call on the 16 marginal seats exit polling.”

    I don’t think our Lord is calling anything, only analysing an exit poll.

    Once again, IMO – Exit polls are the crappiest of crap ways to work out what is going on. Even worse than bookies odds.

  5. “IF this turns out to be true then surely he’ll be replaced as leader ..?”

    Yes Rex. You should throw your hat into the ring.

  10. I’m going to repost this from the previous thread as my most up to date thoughts on the matter (with corrections):

    Without retracting anything Ive posted this afternoon (in a nutshell likely win to the Government), this appears to be a possible pathway for Labor:

    1. Labor holds everything it has (noting the nerves in Strathfield);

    2. Labor wins Ballina off the Greens (it seems that the Greens MP is out of it and the Nationals hold an edge over Labor);

    3. Greens pick up Lismore;

    4. Shooters pick up Barwon (a good outside chance in Murray as well);

    5. Matthew Dickerson picks up Dubbo (our polling had the Nat at 44% Tuesday week ago, but since then Dickerson has gone all out after the Nats and if he can get the Nats down a few points on primaries then the preferences from Labor, SFF and Greens should get Dickerson across the line);

    6. Labor picks up all of:

    Coogee (likely)
    Upper Hunter (likely)
    Goulburn (likely)
    East Hills (close put Labor still favoured)
    Penrith (line ball)
    Monaro (something is odd there with what I was picking up in the war room)

    AND there is a Labor boilover in Any or all of Heathcote (genuinely close), Tweed (very close), Holsworthy (unlikely) and Seven Hills (Labor was at 44% on our internal poll completed 11 days ago – which was before there was another 5-6 days of positive campaigning but before the 5-6 days of crap this week).

  11. antonbruckner11 @ #39 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 5:32 pm

    From a report on the Victorian Election. For what it’s worth, the Galaxy exit poll undercooked the Labor vote by about 2 per cent and 10 seats.

    Earlier an exit poll predicted Daniel Andrews and Labor would be returned for a second term in Victoria with an slightly increased majority.

    The Galaxy poll for the Nine Network shows a statewide swing of three per cent to Labor that would increase the government’s one-seat margin in the 88-seat parliament by at least two more seats.

    The poll projects the primary vote to be up to 41 per cent for Labor, with the Liberal-National coalition dropping to 38 per cent, and the Greens on 12 per cent.

    It’s interesting, but I suspect it’s not worth very much. Hoping that a new exit poll is as equally useless as a previous one doesn’t give me much to hang my hat on.

  12. Al Pal says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 5:40 pm
    Daley can’t win based on Williams call on the 16 marginal seats exit polling.
    ———

    Libs/nats are likely gone if 41% is the highest they are getting

  14. I missed this earlier – and look at the photo taken yesterday.

    Gladys Berejiklian’s NSW election campaign described as ‘dreadful’ by Government MPs
    By state political reporter Brigid Glanville
    Posted about 11 hours ago

    “It’s been a dreadful campaign — we may only get over the line because Michael Daley stuffed up.”

    Before the polls have closed, Liberal ministers are laying blame and the knives are out.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-23/liberal-nsw-election-campaign-dreadful-mps-say/10929638

  15. The poll projects the primary vote to be up to 41 per cent for Labor, with the Liberal-National coalition dropping to 38 per cent, and the Greens on 12 per cent.

    ———-
    38% combined primary vote for thelibs/nats
    Then Labor will look like the new government around 7:30pm -8pm tonight

  16. If the exit polls are correct surely it will not be resolved tonight? We will be headed for minority government either way and days or weeks of arm twisting with minor parties and independents.

  20. The Guardian live feed @ 17:48

    Almost 1.3 million people have voted early this year – a quarter of the state’s 5.3 million total enrolment.

    More than 1 million people voted early in person, and 200,000 have voted online, the NSW Electoral Commission said this morning. And this is despite widespread issues yesterday with the iVote portal. The commission confirmed that the registration process – but not voting – went offline yesterday.

    Some people are still experiencing issues, though the commission said this morning it had been fixed.

    This means that there will be a big job for the counting staff at pre-poll centres tonight.

    Watch out for when the pre-polls report because they can cause a sudden shift in the tallies, particularly as people who voted early might have made up their mind before Labor leader Michael Daley’s horror week.

    Postals don’t get counted until after tonight and they can can trickle in for up 13 days after polling day. The NSW Electoral Commission has so far received 50,656 postal votes – about 1% of the total number of enrolled voters.

  22. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    11m11 minutes ago
    Nothing bold about this NSW election prediction but here goes anyway: Coalition returned with anywhere from a two seat majority to a two seat shortfall, propped up by two crossbenchers. #auspol

  23. Just want to clarify- is that 53.1-46.9 for those 16 electorates last time, or is that the prediction for TPP throughout the state?

  25. If Gladys loses I think it’s due to mismanagement of infrastructure spending.

    There certainly have been a lot of them, however light rail & stadium debacle have given the LNP a bad narrative to sell.. Projects such as Motorway extensions have caused huge disruption & weren’t complete in time for the election.

  29. I wish we had a contest between small polling booths racing to be the first to post their totals like they do in New Hampshire.
    At Victorian State Election I used to work at a booth that only had a few dozen voters all day. We could have done it in 10 minutes.

  30. Jodi McKay is brave to turn up with the possibility of her losing her seat.

    So it seems the liberal worker did not handle any cast votes but worked in the booth and any votes cast while she was there have been quarantined. 3 boxes of votes.

  36. j341983 says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 6:16 pm
    If Labor isn’t confident of Coogee, they shouldn’t be expecting anything else lol

    ________________________________

    I’ve had to drive to Sydney’s Eastern suburbs from Canberra a lot in the last few years. The light rail project is a catastrophe – not just for for commuters waiting for it but locals along the route who have been appallingly inconvenienced by the never-ending works. It is the best Labor advertisement for the fundamental incompetence and, possibly, corruptibility of the Coalition in NSW.

    On that basis alone, Coogee would be dead in the water for the Coalition as a retain.

  37. How on earth is it possible for someone not employed by the AEC to work for the AEC?

    When I was 2IC on a booth last election, we checked the ID of every worker as they arrived against the list we have of workers expected to turn up.

    Just really shoddy work from the local returning officer.

  43. Rex Douglas and the other greens supporters will be getting excited if the libs/nats combined primary vote lower then 40% or no higher then 42% , it benefits the greens if there is a Labor majority or most likely minority government

  45. Back from 7.45 am to 6.00 pm booth duty. Left Jeff to do the scrutineering. What I learnt is that my booth population is skewed towards the older, and more overweight voter, that some Lib volunteers are more or less human, and that 10 hours standing is quite a long time. One forgets between bouts of altruistic self torture what a bore it can be.

    Also found that our delivered, well chosen Subway was vastly superior to the Lib plain plastic cheese or pressed ham on white in a little triangular plastic box. Our water was also superior, in that it existed.

  50. Pegasus says:
    Saturday, March 23, 2019 at 6:32 pm
    Scott

    Sorry to disappoint but polling day in NSW isn’t something that really gets me excited.

    I follow proceedings with interest.

    ————————

    The election may not get you excited but if there is a chance of greens getting to be able to have input , might though , that’s if you aren’t a leaning libs/nats

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