The final Newspoll of the New South Wales state election campaign, published in the Australian, has the Coalition leading 51-49 on two-party preferred, compared with 50-50 in the last such poll a fortnight ago. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 41%, Labor is down one to 35% and the Greens are steady on 10%. On personal ratings, Gladys Berejiklian is down one on approval to 43% and up four on disapproval to 42%; Michael Daley has taken a rather big hit, being down five on approval to 32% and up nine on disapproval to 47%; and Berejiklian’s lead as preferred premier is 43-35, compared with 41-34 last time.
Breakdowns are provided for Sydney and the rest of New South Wales. In Sydney, the Coalition leads 52-48, which compares with 54.3-45.7 in 2015, from primary votes of Coalition 43%, Labor 36% and Greens 18. In keeping with expectations, a bigger swing is recorded in the rest of New South Wales, with two-party preferred at 50-50, compared with 54.4-45.6 to the Coalition last time, from primary votes of Coalition 39%, Labor 34% and Greens 9%. The poll was conducted Tuesday to Thursday from a bumper sample of 2518.
Administrative affairs:
• I’m afraid I won’t be able to make good on my earlier promise to run an election results facility. The New South Wales Electoral Commission is unusual in putting its media feed behind a security wall, and I haven’t been able to gain the permissions required to access it. To be honest, it probably wouldn’t have worked very well even if I had – optional preferential voting and enormous changes between the polling booths from the last election to this have added extra layers of complexity. None of these issues will apply at the federal election, which is actually quite a lot easier to do than a state election.
• I am currently in Sydney doing behind-the-scenes work on the Nine Network’s election night coverage. At this stage I have no idea what this will mean for what I will be able to provide in terms of live blogging tonight – it may mean I have inside dope to relate, or it may mean I will be too busy to do anything. At a bare minimum there will be a thread available where you are all invited to exchange information and generally discuss the results.
Some details about the Electoral Commission’s plans for the count:
• We will not be privy to as much counting of pre-poll results on election night as we have lately grown accustomed. All we are promised is incomplete progress counts of the primary vote from pre-poll voting centres, which will presumably posted quite late on the night. That means no pre-poll results on two-party preferred, which could well leave us hanging in more seats than usual at the end of the night. Some postals will be counted on the night – I can’t tell you if this will just be primary votes or if it will include two-party totals as well.
• The Legislative Council count on the night will be unusual, in that the only things that are specifically being tallied are above-the-line votes for the Coalition, Labor, the Greens, Shooters, the Christian Democrats, Animal Justice and One Nation. Beyond that, an “others” total will be published that will include above-the-line votes for everyone else, and below-the-line votes for all and sundry (including votes that will prove, on closer inspection, to be informal). Among other things, this means those of you hanging on the electoral prospects of David Leyonhjelm will go to bed disappointed.
• The Electoral Commission encountered technical difficulties last week with its pre-polling, with outages in the system with which it marks off those who have voted leading to “long delays and even temporary closures of some pre-poll booths”, as reported by The Guardian. The commission’s initial projection was that a little over 1 million votes would be counted at pre-poll voting centres – hard data on the number of votes cast does not appear to be available on its website, but it was reported that 670,998 such votes had been cast as of the close of business on Wednesday. I couldn’t tell you at this late hour if these means they were running below expectations.
• Trouble too with the commission’s iVote facility, which has been providing many prospective voters with error messages. The service allows the disabled, sick or those outside New South Wales to vote online or by phone. Nonetheless, the Sydney Morning Herald reports that 82% of the 227,521 who had registered had voted as of last night.
Horse race latest:
• The Daily Telegraph reported yesterday that “both major parties have struggled with phone polling in Murray and Barwon”, the two seats Shooters Fishers and Farmers hopes to gain from the Nationals to complement Orange, wbich it won from the Nationals at a by-election in November 2016. However, “internal research” by Shooters Fishers and Farmers suggested it should retain Orange, and left it “confident” of winning Barwon.
• The Sydney Morning Herald today cites a Liberal source saying there will be nothing in it in Penrith, East Hills and Goulburn, but that they will probably lose Coogee. A Labor source expresses confidence about both Coogee and East Hills. Two Nationals sources are cited offering varying perspectives on Barwon, Lismore, Murray and Tweed, with one sounding optimistic about Tweed and Lismore, but the other sounding pessimistic about Lismore. Ballina is rated “anyone’s guess”.
• Here’s my paywalled account of the situation in Crikey, the upshot of which is that Labor is more likely to outperform expectations than the Coalition. A number of the same points are made by Tim Colebatch in the Sydney Morning Herald (probably also paywalled).
That description of Gladys is apt. I’ve been trying to work her out for ages, but there’s just nothing there. She’s like a robot. She was interviewed on TV this morning. Did not connect with interviewer nor answered any of his questions. Just went into remote control, repeating her mantra for each question. Sure seems to be an empty vessel, sprouting her programmed message.
I won’t attempt to predict the winners of the State Election. However, I reckon some things about it are worthy of prediction. Here goes.
The results of the Upper House will not be known for at least a week to 10 days.
There will be a backlash against the Nationals.
The result in the Sydney metropolitan area will be very close- closer than NewsPoll.
Daleys “week from hell” will not have much,if any, impact on Labors chances.
The support for the Government in the Murdoch and former Fairfax papers will not have a significant impact on the elections.
Strong pre-poll voting will favour the Indies, Labor and the Shooters.
The State Nats vote decline( followed by the Federal Nats vote) is going to be a real drag on the
Lib State Governments chances ( and the Federal Coalitions vote and seats come May ). The desperate Nats will be go all-out to differentiate themselves from the listing conservative ship.
Northern NSW will be a graveyard for both the Conservative parties.
Most people made up their minds weeks ago. No last minute stuff-ups are going to dramatically affect the result.
Any “uncertains” will vote Libs today. And they will only be in Sydney metropolitan seats.
Like that of the Murdoch papers in both the Victorian and Qld elections, their influence
in NSW is highly overrated. Qld showed that , inspite of only having one State wide paper ,
and strongly pro-LNP, Labor won quite comfortably. Having a compliant Age and redneck Sun-Herald couldn’t save the Vic. Libs urban vote or the Nats vote regionally.
Voting trends and swings are not going to follow previous patterns. Sorry, William. Politics in this country have changed dramatically. PHON will stagger to yet another predictable ( not in the medias’ view) electorate disaster and Latham will most likely be the only PHON MP in the Upper House.
Lyonholme will not win a seat. HSFs will take it instead. They have greater resonance with voters on that particular branch of conservative politics, especially in regional areas.
My thoughts.
Thanks Onebobsworth
I enjoyed reading that predictive essay!
Did my bit for democracy for the seat of Londonderry. Pru Carr should win here but western Sydney can be a strange beast at times. I was surprised at how quick it was….not the usual queue as for a fed election.
OMG the size of the NSW upper house ballot……huge…..lol
One thing I do hate is all the cornflutes and posters. I’m of the belief that today ( election day ) is our day….not the political parties and we shouldn’t have any advertising at all. People in political party t-shirts thats fine but at least give the voters a break on election day.
Just voted.
For the first time in my life I voted above the line in LC.
Labor: 1
Prevaricators: nil
Now is not the time for dithering indecision.
Based on the probabilities using the odds from the individual seats from both Sportsbet and Ladbrokes (literally bugger all difference between them) the LNP are looking at 44 seats and the ALP are looking at 40 seats with up to 9 crossbenchers. Take +/-2 from each of those predictions.
But the ALP is a long way short of any form of government whilst the LNP is extremely close to majority govt as at least 1-2 of those crossbench seats could fall its way.
That said, the LNP are more vulnerable to any swing that hasn’t been picked up by the polls as they are less-strong favourites in far more seats than the ALP is but they are still favourites and that matters.
The fact is that the ALP is just not considered strong enough contenders (by the punters) to win more seats. There would have to be some seriously good upsets for them to get anywhere near 44-45 seats. Not that it can’t happen (after all, in probability calculations there is virtually never a zero chance) but it’s not looking promising.
Thus, the polls and, therefore, the punters would have to be reasonably ‘wrong’ (or incorrectly informed) in order for any other outcome.
That’s just how it is. I didn’t have the time to do this analysis for the Vic State Election but when I did it for the 2016 Fed Election I got within 1-2 seats of each party’s final result.
For those that have asked recently about why the odds for the LNP to form govt have strengthened in the final days of the campaign the most likely reason is that because their margin of favouritism (in the opinion of the punters) held up with little remaining time for it to be overcome by its opponent. Leading 51-49 twelve months out from an election is not as strong a position as leading 51-49 a couple of days out thus the odds move to reflect that. Think about it in footy terms; if you’re up by 7 points in the first quarter the in-play odds will be barely different from the pre-match odds but if there is only a minute left on the clock then you’ll likely be $1.01 or unbackable favourites.
Anyway, that’s the analysis based on the probabilities from the odds. Now it’s down to the counting and the results.
Frankly, I pity both parties in this situation. Whomever wins is likely to be in minority in both houses and, worse, likely to be dealing with Latham and Leyonhelm, amongst others, in the Upper House. Good luck to them all because they (and NSW) will need it, imo.
Enjoy the count tonight.
The election official gave me two voting forms for the lower house and I had to take one back. Maybe I should have voted twice.
Last minute News Limited opt in poll shows Daley more popular than Gladys.
https://www.news.com.au/national/nsw-act/news/premier-gladys-berejiklian-dealt-tough-blow-on-polling-day/news-story/18af5fdb8fff58891ee0e1396141cd79
Well just did my democratic duty in the fine Sydney electorate of Drummoyne.
The lib member, John Sidoti will win fairly easily but I’m hoping the labor bloke will cut his margin to 10% ish (currently 19% iirc).
Sidoti is not a bad bloke and owns the high Italian vote around these parts but as i say if the labor guy can reduce the margin then the electorate will be back in play next time round.
Statewide I’m predicting a swing of around 4%, not quite enough for labor to form a govt. The last week has not been great for Dayley, who prior to that had run a fairly flawless campaign.
Have also voted in Drummoyne. The Labor guy has a background in Education so am hoping that will attract votes though Sidoti has the name recognition.
Wish people would vote on issues and not personalities.
Can’t stand the thought of another 4 years of demolitions and selling off of public assets.
antonbruckner11
“The election official gave me two voting forms for the lower house and I had to take one back. Maybe I should have voted twice.”
You must have looked like a Liberal voter.
As we ran the gauntlet at the voting booth this morning, I was nostalgic for my voting experience in NZ….no signage, no ‘how to vote’ handouts but just an orderly neutral place to cast your vote.
Even though it was a small country community, I was never aware of who any of my friends and neighbours voted for though guessed it would be National.
The path to power: How the Coalition and Labor could win, lose, or both fall short:
https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/the-path-to-power-how-the-coalition-and-labor-could-win-lose-or-both-fall-short-20190322-p516k4.html
I was at first a little depressed with the last opinion poll suggesting maybe a 1% vote swing to the lnp….. then I thought …. no one really knows…… there are still so many seats in the mix and in excess of 30 seats have varying degrees of uncertainty. The coalition is very unpopular in the bush….. and they know it!! why else put out the pamphlet about the fake retiree tax in it’s very emotive language… no proof some whizz kid from head office…. assume you are a sane person handing out for the nationals how do you explain that? if you were independent or undecided would it sway you? a scare that is not seen as credible can backfire badly…… I think the least likely result is a liberal majority government. So this means either minority territory or an alp majority. In a minority who plays with the liberals? The Greens and the 2 non rural independents cannot if they wish to be relelected. Mr Mcgirr is an unknown quantity…… shooters well the liberals in attacking labor did not play nice…… On Balance alp will win most if not all the seats up to Penrith…… and at least another 2 to 3…… Eg Bega massive population changes…. look at Mike Kelly’s votes closest to Bega 58 to 60% repeated time and time again.
Having a break from the war room. Hose reports from last night in the SMH that ‘insiders’ just don’t know what will happen is on the money. The consensus however lies somewhere between my first post and moderates post earlier today. In short:
SYDNEY
Coogee- gone
East Hills – line ball
Penrith – line ball
Heathcote- in play
Strathfield – Jodi nervous
Outside Sydney:
The four most marginal National seats are in play, as is Barwon and Murray
Liberals in trouble in Gulburn
Bathurst in play
Dubbo in play
mick Quinlivan @ #114 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 11:38 am
MOE says the polls haven’t moved. With 5 mill voting, a 1% swing says 50,000 people changed their vote between polls. I doubt that.
I reckon voters made up their minds at the outset and there has been very little movement one way or the other.
Anecdotal evidence. A few moderate Liberal voters I know confessed to voting Labor today. They dont like Gladys (or Daley though). Wouldnt read much into it but interesting.
Earlwood
When you say Coogee gone do you mean gone from the Liberals to Labor?
When can we start to hear the results from exit polls?
This is the first time I have ever taken any interest in NSW elections!!!
Possibly because I am so angry at Gladys’ rape of the environment.
Just voted at the Epping booth that returned 64% Liberal last elections. 4 Lib HTVers (none of them members of the Young Liberals!), 1 Green, 1 Labor ( I suspect the ALP person was daughter of the very good ALP candidate). As to be expected, most voters were carrying blue guides. I queued for about 8 -10 minutes, and was told by the official at the table that I was fortunate in comparison to earlier in the morning.
There were a considerable no. of HTVs left in the various voting cubicles, which were obviously not being checked by the officials standing around, so had a quiet word about it to one of them.
“When you say Coogee gone do you mean gone from the Liberals to Labor?”
Correct weight.
The conditions are clearly right for an unexpected labor win!
From your commentary Andrew is the expectation a narrow coalition majority? If 50 percent of those in play went away from the government they would be below 45…
Have heard some chatter about Granville..any inside info? I can report all very quiet in the safe haven of Shellharbour. Bit chaotic in Kiama itself, not sure about Nowra booths.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #120 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 11:04 am
It only takes a 3% swing for that to happen. Though to call it as gone this early, I guess you’d have to be observing at least 4%. Still, would like to see a bit more than that. Labor needs a bit more than that.
If Gulburn switches from ‘in trouble’ to ‘gone’, that’ll be something.
AR
Ive heard the Libs abandoned campaigning in Coogee and wrote it off themselves due to the Light Rail fiasco.
East Hills is not line ball it is an alp win…. Margin is 372 votes that means less than 200 people need to change their mind…. there is a swing to labour on the prepoll booths
Watching the NSW Wild West very, very closely (Barwon, Murray, Wagga, etc). These areas have some of the wealthiest landowners and agribusinesses in the country. The LNP has made a HUGE mistake by ignoring the established socio-political landscape in these parts. The Squattocracy’s influence on ground-level political issues in the past was significant and served as a way of keeping wider communities on track too – I’ve lost count of the times I’ve heard primary producers say: “If we have our water back, we could fix everything else ourselves”. And they would. Community leaders in these outer regions carry a burden to provide that is in their DNA. Call it globalisation, call it corporatisation…call it poor form of elected members to put their parties first and/or the needs of bigger towns where most of the votes are. Whatever. But when Katharine McBride of Tolarno Station – the daughter of former SA Liberal premier, Dean Brown – appears on a social media video with a baby on her hip, desperately endorsing the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party to save the day, you know there is a seismological shift. NB: Fun fact, Tolarno Station is a seriously iconic Australian property that apparently played a pivotal role in the shearer’s strike of 1894, which gave birth to bush ballad Waltzing Matilda – https://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/agribusiness/on-farm/tolarno-station-robert-mcbride-of-menindee-mixes-the-past-with-the-present/news-story/9ec9fabb696824a7dcd85c28b1574d70
Summer Hill is a festival of Jo Haylen supporters.
Not that it’s a surprise. The Liberal didn’t turn up to any community events and has only been spotted in public once by my circle of acquaintances. The Green made a goose of himself on social media repeatedly.
Very disappointed. An ominous sign for the future of Australia. There was no democracy sausages available at the local voting centre. Not happy 🙁
When Gladys privatises the NSW Electoral Commission I suppose MacDonalds will win the fanchise. Local democracy sausages will be illegal.
Just voted with my partner.
There was a reasonable queue. It took about 20 minutes to vote.
Also, I did exit poll for Channel 9 after the vote. 4 questions. Whom did I vote, what influenced my vote My gender and my age.
There was local democracy sausage.
Rocket
“If Berejiklian post-election is trying to negotiate minority government and needs SFF, it may result in some interesting discussions, all in the lead up to the Federal election.”
Agreed. But I think it is a likely scenario. Given the choice between losing power or not, the LNP will deal with anyone, as the current fallout between Liberals and Nationals and Lib State and Federal branches demonstrates. The chances of the Libs retaining a majority in both houses look small.
Funny how you don’t hear much talk about disunity in the Labor party these days.
If it is a hung parliament, it might be a case of the Liberals being in government but not being in power. And that sucks…. it saps the government of authority and builds resentment. The current federal government is an example as was the last Liberal Government in Victoria. (And the current UK govt).
Where as when the opposition takes over in Minority government there is a different feel.
I pre-polled in my electorate of Seven Hills several days ago. Both the ALP and Lib candidates and an army of supporters were present outside the booth. I’ve also received a mass of letters and fliers from both majors during the campaign, far more than last time. Seven Hills sits on 8.7% and will surely be out of reach for the ALP on this occasion, but it’s interesting that both parties are putting a lot of effort into the seat. I guess it’s the kind of seat that would fall if government was to change hands, so it makes sense to put resources into the seat, even if it is unlikely to be in play.
I’m not feeling optimistic at all about Labor’s chances. It sounds like Coogee is the only sure win in Sydney. Will Daley quit if the LNP retain majority government? Who would be next if he did?
Socrates
Yes the prospect of government is a strong incentive to deal – no matter what was said beforehand. In 1999 Jeff Kennett was nearly begging the three independents to back him, and in 2010 Tony Windsor famously said about post-election negotiations :
Tony Abbott begged crossbench MPs to make him prime minister, joking ”the only thing I wouldn’t do is sell my arse – but I’d have to give serious thought to it”.
Did the democratic deed around 10am. Surprisingly long queue (suspect apartment development in the last 4 years not accounted for in staffing rates). And no democracy sausage (suspect High School has less active p&c than primary).
Wine chilling and assorted nibblies purchased for the Festival of St Antony from 6pm.
Our friends in the splitters and smearers will be glad to know I bothered myself to put a 4 ATL for the Greens (after KSO and AJL). The Minister of Finance and War wasn’t having a bar of it though which surprised me. She’s a staunch lass, but I didn’t think she’d be dirty enough at the Sirens of Sanctimony to give em nothin. Even when I noted that a small slice of Labor’s excess might help keep a real loon out at the last exclusion she wasn’t going there. Anecdotal evidence obviously, but indicative of the loss of the purity premium the Greens have fraudulently traded on.
Still sticking with my contention that no one really has any idea how this one’s going to pan out. It could quite easily turn out that we’ll see the Newspoll vindicated with a returned Government sitting somewhere around 45-48 seats. But it won’t take a hugely different preference flow and or a percent or two variation in the PVs for the polls to be essentially correct but the result far different. (In either direction).
I just heard Berejiklian promising “Strong and stable government”
It reminded me of something from 2017 –
“Theresa May : Strong and stable leadership in the national interest”
Now how did that turn out?
Hello all – and good luck today, Labor!
Wait times longer than usual in Darling Point, presumably owing to the 356 person Senate ballot. Zero ALP presence, one Green, one Euthanasia, one independent, one Sydney Lockout, tons of pale turquoise blue (!)-bedecked Dr Phelps-esque imitating Gabrielle Upton (and in much, much smaller, very much less noticeable print Libs) T-shirt people. Interestingly, too, none of the usual Young Lib buffoon presence. Gone with the Malcolm, presumably.
Once inside, an older woman next to me seemed at first blush to be struggling with the physical size of the Senate ballot. It quickly became clear, however, the problem was one of comprehension. I explained the ATL, 1-15 BTL or vote-it-all BTL options. She was still distressed and wailed (in the time-honoured rorters’ way): ‘I just want to vote Liberal’. Why on earth would anyone want to do that? Perhaps I shouldn’t have, but I pointed out the written instructions on her ballot (which the AEC staffers already had done) and left her to it. Completely confirmed my bias regarding Lib voters, but.
The rector of St Mark’s, one of the vehemently anti-SSM Jensen brothers, was heading the sausage sizzle at the exit. So no material sustenance for me, either.
Two additional notations: (1) ATL shouldn’t be allowed [won’t happen, I know, but it’s a disgrace] and (2) entry barriers for Senate candidates need to be raised.
Again, good luck today, Labor.
Clare Armstrong
Verified account @ByClare
25m25 minutes ago
Horrible news out of The Entrance where a polling booth has been “closed indefinitely” due to a death. Latest on the @dailytelegraph blog #nswvotes #nswelection
Hello all -good luck to today to all the progressive minor parties/indys !
Zoidlord @ #135 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:28 pm
Awful. Hope there was no criminality involved.
Just back at the house for a quick bite of lunch and to put my feet up before the run to the end of the day.
Observations:
* The Liberals are relying heavily on Gladys’ favourability rating with the electorate to get them through, though looking at last night’s poll results maybe that might have been a mistake.
* We were a 53-47 booth to the Liberals in Wagstaffe last time, so if anyone is interested in making the comparison to this time, there you go.
* Looks to me like plenty of people are coming back to Labor and the wilderness years are over.
* The Greens are saying, Vote 1 Greens in the Upper House if you are thinking about voting for Labor because we’ll keep them honest. 🙄
* It’s bloody humid out there but a local Liberal brought us an umbrella to stand under. We are an insular peninsular here and at the end of the day we are Killy Boyz and Girls first and foremost. 😉
@Rex
Nope, medical:
“Police confirmed a person died following a medical incident at the Tuggerah Lakes Secondary College polling station on Entrance Road in Bateau Bay. Police could not confirm the age or gender of the person who had died.”
WTF Rex?!
@ C@tmomma – well done. Give them Tories hell.
Will we know tonight?
LOL!
Zoidlord @ #138 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:28 pm
Like I said, it’s bloody hot and humid today up here on the Central Coast (where The Entrance is)! 😯
Upnorth @ #144 Saturday, March 23rd, 2019 – 1:36 pm
Thanks, Upnorth. Fingers crossed!
There is that 🙂
Apparently, from my sources, it was a voter not a worker who died.