YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in New South Wales

The Daily Telegraph has a statewide New South Wales poll from YouGov Galaxy that records a dead head on two-party preferred, from primary votes of Coalition 41%, Labor 38% and Greens 9%. The poll also records Shooters Fishers and Farmers on 3% and One Nation on 1%, which I presume accounts for the limited number of seats these parties are fielding candidates in, as was the case with YouGov Galaxy’s late campaign polling in Queensland last year. A preferred premier question has Gladys Berejiklian with a 38-36 lead over Michael Daley, which is rather slender for an incumbent. It also finds 47% saying the government’s stadium plans have made them less likely to vote Coalition, compared with only 16% for more likely. The report says the poll was conducted from a sample of 1016 “before The Daily Telegraph broke the story of Mr Daley’s doublespeak over ­Chinese immigration”, but it’s no more precise than that on the field work period.

Yet again, the is well in line with the existing reading of the state election poll tracker, on which Labor currently leads 50.6-49.4. The trend charts can be viewed over the fold, with the full display featured as part of the election guide.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

218 comments on “YouGov Galaxy: 50-50 in New South Wales”

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  2. Australians of Chinese heritage would understand that large numbers of people moving to Sydney from interstate and overseas will put pressure on jobs, housing costs, infrastructure etc.
    Nothing strange about stating the obvious.
    Which Party will cope best with these challenges over the next 4 years. The incumbents don’t have much to boast about in how they have coped with congestion during their terms.

  3. The President of the Senate tweets..

    I have been advised that His Excellency General the Honourable David Hurley (Ret’d), Governor of New South Wales has, pursuant to section 15 of the Constitution, appointed Duncan Spender to fill the Senate vacancy for caused by the resignation of David Leyonhjelm. 1/3

    The appointment takes effect immediately, but needs to be endorsed within 14 days of the commencement of the next session of the NSW Parliament. 2/3

    Senator Spender will take the oath or affirmation of office when the Senate next meets on Tuesday 2 April. 3/3

  6. MOderate@4:01pm
    The Libs votes is collapsing right before our eyes after video came out where it proved that NSW Treasurer Dominic Perottet is a climate chane denier. 🙂
    And you did not clarify why Federal and NSW State governments did not announce that they will protect us from White Supremacist terrorism. Or point me to that link where they said that.

  7. I still think we will have a minority Coalition government after the election. Though I wouldnt put it past a Labor minority government with the Greens + Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich and maybe Joe McGirr. I dont think Labor will win outright.

    I hope Daley hasnt blown it and given Gladys a boost (im not sure what effect his comments may have had) because I dont like the direction the Liberal/Nats have been taking NSW.

  8. People getting excited about last minute events in the campaign should bear in mind that a lot of people will have already voted by now.

  10. First Q on Climate Change to GB

    GladysB says she is planting more trees. Otherwise nothing other than adaption – a/c in all schools.

  11. Good work Ven. I wouldn’t worry about climate change deniers old mate – you are an opinion poll denier. ALP vote in Sydney sinking like a stone…..enjoy Saturday night.

  12. GladysB says she can’t speak for the Feds

    Daley is interrupted first time by Speers – however goes through the shopping list of clean green energy initiatives, and says he encourages the kids to strike.

    GladysB says kids should be at school

  14. Q2 on Waragamba dam and water

    Daley, no lifting of dam wall. Says should recycle water. Or desalination plant.

    The questioner is an older lady who appears to be an engineer

    GladysB is gunna build a bigger dam wall! No other options.

  15. “I wouldn’t worry about climate change deniers old mate – you are an opinion poll denier. ALP vote in Sydney sinking like a stone…..enjoy Saturday night.”

    moderate. You can’t bullshit a bullshitter. If the Labor vote truly was sinking like a stone there would be poll up on poll published in the Rupeverse crowing about it.

    Instead?

    Tumbleweeds. Nadda. Zip. Zero.

  16. Q3 Domestic Violence

    GladysB Has a Minister for DV, improving justice system, education programs – standing on record

    Daley: Libs cut $20m from DV shelters in 2014. Uses an anecdote, constituent subject to DV had to live in his electorate office. $158m injection. Special DV court.

    GladysB looks worried, denies cuts – 2014 was Mike Baird, GladysB only answering for herbadmin

  17. Q4 Anti discrimination Act question, on sexuality

    Daley: not supportive of people losing jobs due to sexuality. Speers trying to verbal Daley, Daley won’t wear it.

    GladysB: wants a national approach – daughter of migrants, understands. Speers pushing religious schools exemption

  18. Q5 Mental,health spending west of Parramatta non existent, emotional questioner

    GladysB: putting 2 mental health experts in each public high schools in the State. Prevention etc. Speers pushing what about hospitals turning people away – wants the persons details

    Daley: mental health nurses under strain. Anecdote of Nepean hospital where 1 nurse had 11 mental health patients, no security, she was going to quit. Increasing money into hospital resources.

  19. Hey Andrew – there isn’t a poll b/c its actually happening as we speak pal. right now.eg Kogarah – Yung at $4.25 this am, $3 now. But I’m sure you continue to live in that river in Egypt.

  20. Q6. Nursing student, is there support for newly graduated?

    Daley: big package for nurses, talking to experts

    GladysB: thanks the questioner, in the past we weren’t good, but now much better – talking to unis

  22. moderate. If you weren’t a chicken shit troll hiding behind a fake name I’d suggest you lay down some ponies on your boy Yung. Good luck with that.

  23. Q7 Stadiums question, the guy goes to the footy

    GladysB: Big revenue from stadiums, destination for tourists. Gunna be Yuuge! Rattles off big numbers

    Daley: GladysB interrupts, put back in her box by Speers, does it again, and again… not good. Daley rattles of refurbishment Numbers, without taxpayers paying for it. Gladys wants to INTERUPT – SAYING he should be doing his own business case from Opposition, sounding shrill
    Speers wants numbers, Daley says the experts will advise
    $341m to make compliant with building codes, FMD!
    Getting quite willing, show of hands – about even

  25. sprocket_ @ #123 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 8:38 pm

    Q7 Stadiums question, the guy goes to the footy

    GladysB: Big revenue from stadiums, destination for tourists. Gunna be Yuuge! Rattles off big numbers

    Daley: GladysB interrupts, put back in her box by Speers, does it again, and again… not good. Daley rattles of refurbishment Numbers, without taxpayers paying for it. Gladys wants to INTERUPT – SAYING he should be doing his own business case from Opposition, sounding shrill
    Speers wants numbers, Daley says the experts will advise
    $341m to make compliant with building codes, FMD!
    Getting quite willing, show of hands – about even

    Stadiums is resonating!

  26. I have old mate. And at $5. Nice you resort to type in your post. Good on you mate you sound like a real charmer. Enjoy the next 4 years – no DLO job in the office of the Minister for Fair trading for you!!

  27. Q8 – M4 tolls, why should we pay when our money going on stadiums

    Daley: Cash back reinstalled

    GladysB: describes pea and thimble trick of no rego cost if you pay more than a certain amount on tolls. No cash back. Speers says ‘cant have it all’, Gladys said you could in her opening

  28. Q9: Roadworks on M4, will there be a new toll west of Church st Parramatta- not a happy camper

    Daley: not from me

    GladysB: just lost it, yes we will have a toll. Cause Westconnex. Can appreciate cost of living pressures, but suck it up Sunshine

  29. Just turned on the people’s forum (was watching movie before). Geez. I have never seen a leader as rattled as Gladys. Ever.

  31. Not as rattled as Daley on Ben Fordham yesterday old mate!! I hope his internal trouser sprinklers were turned on – hopefully he was wearing pull ups!!

  33. Q10. Schoolteacher has to,pay for stationery, photocopy at home, pays for some kids books..

    GladysB: we value our schools, more money, schools are empowered to spend on what they want, no fees in public schools _ schools make decisions on budgets

    Daley: starts with P&Cs – $5k grant for each P&C, plus 100% of Gonski with Bill Shorten. GladysB says she is Gonski already, but not 100% – the Feds only gave 77%. GladysB is talking over Daley, and Speers letting her get more time to overtalk Daley

  34. sprocket_ @ #133 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 8:47 pm

    Q10. Schoolteacher has to,pay for stationery, photocopy at home, pays for some kids books..

    GladysB: we value our schools, more money, schools are empowered to spend on what they want, no fees in public schools _ schools make decisions on budgets

    Daley: starts with P&Cs – $5k grant for each P&C, plus 100% of Gonski with Bill Shorten. GladysB says she is Gonski already, but not 100% – the Feds only gave 77%. GladysB is talking over Daley, and Speers letting her get more time to overtalk Daley

    Gladys is losing, looking very unimpressive,. But, every child must have a prize.

  35. I’ll be posting on and after election night ‘moderate’. Before and after that I have a responsible job to do. One that pays a lot more than any DLO job at fair trading (whatever that is). I’m sure you’ll make an awesome research officer though for your boy Yung, in some imaginary universe where punters actually think Gladys is awesome – maybe on The Big Rock Candy Mountain. …

  36. Q11. Plumber wants more teenagers to be tradies

    Daley: 600,000 free TAFE places in all disciplines, across the state. Broken Hill and others to get flexibility, not run form Sydney.

    GladysB: talks about unemployment, gets into all the jobs created – doesn’t answer question. Talks about welfare programs – undoubtedly not fair in terms of time allocation between the speakers, not as bad as RortedHill..
    Daley: we have to rescue TAFE. Speers wantingto nail Daley on precise figures, Daley should have memorised…

  38. sprocket_ @ #136 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 8:52 pm

    Q11. Plumber wants more teenagers to be tradies

    Daley: 600,000 free TAFE places in all disciplines, across the state. Broken Hill and others to get flexibility, not run form Sydney.

    GladysB: talks about unemployment, gets into all the jobs created – doesn’t answer question. Talks about welfare programs – undoubtedly not fair in terms of time allocation between the speakers, not as bad as RortedHill..
    Daley: we have to rescue TAFE. Speers wantingto nail Daley on precise figures, Daley should have memorised…

    Gladys doesn’t care!

  41. Q12; Schools and STEM

    GladysB: very proud on what the Libs have done, anecdotes te kids coding,_ by Jingo she can speak fast! Airport city at Badgerys Creek..

    Daley: 100% of Gonski, plus 5,000 new teachers. Speers getting picky with Daley, not so with GlasysB

  42. sprocket_ @ #141 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 8:54 pm

    Q12; Schools and STEM

    GladysB: very proud on what the Libs have done, anecdotes te kids coding,_ by Jingo she can speak fast! Airport city at Badgerys Creek..

    Daley: 100% of Gonski, plus 5,000 new teachers. Speers getting picky with Daley, not so with GlasysB

    Skynews is not the sort of organisation that encourages an informed population!

  43. Q13 minority party question, if they have the balance of power

    Daley: no Coalition and no deals. They can support in confidence, no watering down on gun laws if SFF gets up

    GladysB: Speers now pushing her on LDP preferences. Won’t be dealing with SFF – values matter.

  44. Q14 all assets sold, nothing more to sell – how to fund the future

    GladysB: you own more than before, more as taxpayers than ever before, how good is it?

    Daley: back,on school,fundings. Points to Perottet wanting to privatise hospitals, tafe, – privatisations end with me

  45. Daley cant get any of his numbers right. Oh that’s right – he was the Finance Minister who left us $5 billion in deficit.
    But nice come back Andrew – I rdckon you checked that one with Mum before she let you post. Yung hasn’t offered me the job yet, but man I wait by my phone in hope…..

  48. sprocket_ @ #143 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 8:57 pm

    Q13 minority party question, if they have the balance of power

    Daley: no Coalition and no deals. They can support in confidence, no watering down on gun laws if SFF gets up

    GladysB: Speers now pushing her on LDP preferences. Won’t be dealing with SFF – values matter.

    As Annie lennox once said, “When tomorrow comes”.

  50. sprocket_ @ #144 Wednesday, March 20th, 2019 – 9:00 pm

    Q14 all assets sold, nothing more to sell – how to fund the future

    GladysB: you own more than before, more as taxpayers than ever before, how good is it?

    Daley: back,on school,fundings. Points to Perottet wanting to privatise hospitals, tafe, – privatisations end with me

    Mary had a baby!

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