BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. C@tmomma says:

    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 2:55 pm

    I suppose NZ could deport the bastard back to Australia.
    ………………………………………………………………………..

    Only after he has done his time in a NZ prison, which might be a while.

  2. NZ taxi driver

    “I can only talk in my experience but Christchurch is a very conservative Protestant city and it does have a violent past. So it doesn’t surprise me if it did happen, it happened it Christchurch. You do get white boys, the white power gangs there still. Not so much skinheads anymore. But in with that sort. I wouldn’t say New Zealand as a whole is racist.”

  3. Barney

    ‘Boerwar says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 3:07 pm

    There are about 1.1 million firearms in Australia: about one for every four people.’

    My mistake. Note posts above. NZ gun ownership rates appear to be higher than those in Australia.

  4. RHW @3:03
    ” Every gun is a potential murder weapon, everyone who uses them a potential murderer. ”
    that statement invites the inevitable response “Ban all bread knives and motor cars because each of them have been used as murder weapons”.
    I agree 100% that we need strong Gun Laws, and perhaps regular supervision of the people entitled to use guns. However , wild statements like the one you appended to your otherwise sensible post only serve to help our opponents in the Gun Lobby.

  5. nath says:

    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 3:01 pm

    Even with an horrific tragedy before us the anti-Greens obsessives continue their weird crusade.
    ………………………………………………………………………………….

    Whereas you, as the anti-Shorten obsessive will relent for a respectful period in your weird crusade?

    If so I will take my silver linings where I can, however unlikely.

  6. BW

    There are many things I hated Howard for. To this day I am thankful he put those laws in place.

    A silver lining from Christchurch for Australia is we will look at how effective our laws are and likely to take action to reverse the weakening of those Howard laws.

  7. @Reuters
    10m10 minutes ago

    MORE: Cricket test between Bangladesh and New Zealand canceled after shooting in Christchurch – NZ cricket

  8. riday, March 15th, 2019 – 3:03 pm

    Saw the dead tree DT today at a cafe. Aside from totally biased coverage of the NSW election, they’ve done a deal with Western Sydney University to allow all students to access the Oz and DT online for free.
    Payment details (if any) are not mentioned.

    A few years ago when I was working at Victoria University the Murdoch Press had a student or staff deal for termtime access to their papers.
    It was a very low cost from memory although it had to be collected from the campus bookshop. You were issued a card for the bookshop staff to id you.
    As some of the campus bookshops have now closed I am not sure how this might operate now.

  9. Interesting: “Blocks apart in Christchurch NZ, kids protesting for climate action and a gunman shooting up a mosque. The best and the worst of our world, side by side.”

  10. Gippslander
    I see that you have the NRA lines off pat.
    The obvious response to your points:
    1. Bread knives are made and designed to cut bread. There has never been 27 people murdered using breadknives. There have been multiple mass murders involving guns.
    2. Cars are made and designed to travel from place to place. They are designed to be safe for the passengers as well as pedestrians.
    3. Guns are designed to kill. They enable wannabe mass murderers to fantasize about mass killings which some ultimately carry out.
    Me? Australia needs to get rid of at least two million weapons.

  11. NYT on guns in NZ:

    Murders are rare in New Zealand, and gun deaths even rarer. There were 35 murders countrywide in 2017. And since 2007, gun homicides have been in the single digits each year except 2009, when there were 11.

    But there are plenty of guns.

    There were 1.2 million registered firearms in the country of 4.6 million people in 2017, according to the Small Arms Survey, a Swiss nonprofit.

    A mass shooting in the New Zealand in 1990 — when a man killed 13 people, including two 6-year-olds, after a dispute with his neighbor in the seaside town of Aramoana — led directly to tightened gun laws, including restrictions on “military style semiautomatic weapons.”

    Gun owners must be licensed, a process that includes a review of criminal activity and mental health, attendance at a safety program, an explanation of how the gun would be used, a residence visit to ensure secure storage, and testimonials from relatives and friends.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/14/world/asia/new-zealand-shooting-updates-christchurch.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage

  12. Late Riser says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 2:29 pm
    briefly

    I am trying to turn my mind to something else, perhaps you are too. Brexit might serve. So I am reading the PDF you linked for me.

    i will read it too…have some work to do today… will check back…

  13. @jamesmathison
    8h8 hours ago

    Anyone criticising kids for taking time off to fight for their planet should remember our government took the entire afternoon off when a leadership spill got too hard.

  14. Thanks for the well-wishes, but we’re a long way from the incident location.

    Had a wonderful day coming up through Haast Pass to Queenstown, only to find that there’s a terrorist incident unfolding down the road.

    We’re in a campervan park near Queenstown Central. As the news has spread, however, faces are starting to take on a decidedly sombre outlook. You can hear radios tuned in to Breaking News everywhere you go. There are worried looks everywhere. This just doesn’t happen in New Zealand. Does it?

    Yes, it has. Just down the road.

    As Norway was about the last place you’d think would host a mass shooting, so is New Zealand.

    But there’s a grim undercurrent here. Hunting is big business. Helicopter companies have sprung up to serve it. For $500 they’ll take you directly to the mountain tops. No need to hike it. Back at sea level, you can buy magazines in the convenience stores with cover photographs of “hunters” posing next to dead stags, holding up their antlers as if the testostetone had already passed into the killer’s bloodstream. Guns are, in some circles here, a way of life. A raison d’être. Even the luvvies, the crystal worshippers, the tree huggers, endorse hunting. It’s “natural”. Did you know that?

    Hunting means guns. Guns means idiots. Idiots means, eventually, death.

  15. Meanwhile…

    Unions NSW
    ‏@unionsnsw
    1h1 hour ago

    Motorists are exiting the M4 in droves to avoid additional expenditure, clogging up the roads it was supposed to helping. So what’s the point? #VoteTheLiberalsOut and say NO to the M4 TOLL #notgladgladys

  16. Some interesting information for people on this site to think about
    Since more and more people are wanting to be politically correct

    Here is some deliberate incorrect information which should be corrected

    1-The united states is a country , not in central America but North America , so it is incorrect to call it the United states of America , the correct name should be United States of North America

    2- United states citizens should not be called Americans when speaking about the country they are living in or came from, on their birth certificate and passport their nationality would be classed as United states citizens not American Citizens

    3- Donald Trump is committing an offence , by claiming he is making America great ,since there is no country called America , Trump is acting as he is the president of all Americas countrys

  17. Rex Douglas
    So disappointing to see people spreading the work of this mass murderer.

    Agreed.

    People, including those in the media, need to exercise better judgement.

  18. For what it is worth, Yahoo, now also has live video of the apparent murder taking one, of what appears to be several weapons in the back of an SUV, and walking towards the entrance of the Mosque. Video stops short of of his getting any shots off……………………….I guess this is just a matter or time……………….

  19. Here is anothery the arseholes have slipped in while attention is across the ditch:

    ‘Josh Thomas, a former senior policy adviser of Environment Minister Melissa Price, has been appointed chief executive of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority and will draw an annual salary of $353,180 for his new role.’

  20. Worldwide there are a number of gun manufacturers that produce guns with a requirement for a biometric identification system such that only the registered owner can fire the gun.
    Naturally this technology is strongly opposed by the US NRA and other arms manufacturers.
    Stands to reason that the last thing you would want is to have to link yourself with the gun for security & safety purposes.
    Real men want to pick up any gun available and let off a few rounds – no nanny state controls for them.

  21. Four people in custody according to the head of NZ Police.

    Journalist just asked if this should be considered a terrorist attack.

  22. Gippslander @ #2621 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 3:17 pm

    RHW @3:03
    ” Every gun is a potential murder weapon, everyone who uses them a potential murderer. ”
    that statement invites the inevitable response “Ban all bread knives and motor cars because each of them have been used as murder weapons”.
    I agree 100% that we need strong Gun Laws, and perhaps regular supervision of the people entitled to use guns. However , wild statements like the one you appended to your otherwise sensible post only serve to help our opponents in the Gun Lobby.

    How do they help “our” opponents in the Gun Lobby Gippslander?

    My brother did most of the post mortem exams for Port Arthur and Srebrenica. I have have long thought about this and I considered and meant every word that I wrote.

    Guns are designed to kill people. Repeating guns are designed to kill multiple people. You can’t do that with a bread knife.

    If you need a gun to kill other animals, or to practice doing so, you need to account to someone else for every shot. If they are at another human, you need to to answer that account.

  23. And the garbage is always good to put out on a Friday afternoon..

    “The Morrison government has appointed a long-time Liberal Party staffer to a $350,000-a-year job heading up the agency managing the struggling Great Barrier Reef, fuelling accusations the Coalition is stacking the senior public service with its political allies ahead of the May election.

    Environment Minister Melissa Price on Friday announced Josh Thomas, a former adviser to at least three Liberal environment ministers, including herself, had been appointed as chief executive of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority. The role attracts a salary of $353,180 a year.

    The press release said the “rigorous” and “merit-based” selection process was conducted by a public service panel and endorsed by the Australian Public Service commissioner. It did not disclose that Mr Thomas worked in Ms Price’s office until he resigned in mid-February. He has also worked for Josh Frydenberg and Greg Hunt in the portfolio.”

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/morrison-government-gives-former-staffer-a-350-000-a-year-job-managing-the-great-barrier-reef-20190315-p514ki.html?ref=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_source=rss_feed

  24. rhwombat @ #386 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 2:33 pm

    Now is the time to take away all of the little boys’ guns. No private use. No use without personal accountability. License and track every bullet, every weapon, every gun sale. No exceptions. Fuck the gun lovers. Every gun is a potential murder weapon, everyone who uses them a potential murderer.

    I totally agree. And NZ needs to get on board. And something needs to be done about bastards importing guns one part at a time. 10 years prison sentence for possessing an unregistered guns.

    And F@ck the NRA Downunder Shooters Party along with it.

  25. Mr. Tarrant decries “mass immigration” as “white genocide” and says why he commits the attack.

    “To most of all show the invaders that our lands will never be their lands, our homelands are our own, and that, as long as a white man still lives, they will NEVER conquer our lands and they will never replace our people.”

    Tell that to the Australian Aborigines.

    https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2019/mar/14/brenton-tarrant-new-zealand-mosque-shooter-used-fa/

  26. Boerwar
    Yep, and we need to root them out of our community. Tough laws, heavy policing, and taking them off the bastards, no compensation.

  27. PuffyTMD @ #436 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 3:35 pm

    rhwombat @ #386 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 2:33 pm

    Now is the time to take away all of the little boys’ guns. No private use. No use without personal accountability. License and track every bullet, every weapon, every gun sale. No exceptions. Fuck the gun lovers. Every gun is a potential murder weapon, everyone who uses them a potential murderer.

    I totally agree. And NZ needs to get on board. And something needs to be done about bastards importing guns one part at a time. 10 years prison sentence for possessing an unregistered guns.

    And F@ck the NRA Downunder Shooters Party along with it.

    To which you can add, Leyonhjelm and the Liberal Democrats and Pauline Hanson and One Nation. All supporters of overturning Howard’s gun laws.

  28. Gippslander @ #404 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 2:47 pm

    RHW @3:03
    ” Every gun is a potential murder weapon, everyone who uses them a potential murderer. ”
    that statement invites the inevitable response “Ban all bread knives and motor cars because each of them have been used as murder weapons”.
    I agree 100% that we need strong Gun Laws, and perhaps regular supervision of the people entitled to use guns. However , wild statements like the one you appended to your otherwise sensible post only serve to help our opponents in the Gun Lobby.

    F^ck the response. The next time a bread knife kills forty people I might listen. I get to fight off a bread knife, there is no fighting off a bullet.

  29. BB

    The hunting is much more accepted as the quarry are introduced , ferals like pig and deer. Kill the pig,save the bush as it were.

    Lucky for you there are no more Haast eagles out and about looking for delicious tourists. A model of its talons.

  30. It did not disclose that Mr Thomas worked in Ms Price’s office until he resigned in mid-February. He has also worked for Josh Frydenberg and Greg Hunt in the portfolio.”

    He was either very poor at his job (since their decisions were crap) or very poor at his job (because they took no notice of his recommendations).

  31. This is a time of great vulnerability for our communities.We must come together, fight for each other, & stand up for neighbors.Isolation, dehumanizing stereotypes, hysterical conspiracy theories, & hatred ultimately lead to the anarchy of violence.We cannot stand for it.— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) March 15, 2019

  32. Yep, all those arsewipes contributed to these killings by their hateful rhetoric and/or support for guns.

    Bloody mongrel bastards. They are not worth the price of the vaccines their mothers probably gave them as kids. What a waste of health resources.

  33. PuffyTMD
    I get to fight off a bread knife, there is no fighting off a bullet.

    I watched a show recently about a true event in which a five foot four teenage woman successfully fought off a six foot three man who was attempting to harm her with a knife. If he’d had a gun, she wouldn’t have stood a chance.

    F*ck guns.

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