BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. My reply tweet to Van Badham

    These are not lunatics. These are White Supremacist Terrorists. Please be careful with your labels at this time. More than one, and based on religion and race. How would we call it if it was a Muslim group and a church? #ChristchurchMosque
    /

  2. Can’t we just start electing leaders who won’t stoke the fires of sectarianism and religious bigotry but instead take the general temperature down!?!

  3. Victoria,

    Nothing has been confirmed yet, but I am firmly of the belief he is. His “manifesto” such as it is (brought to you by ABC24 for reasons known only to them) and News.com.au (no surprise, they also helpfully showed a still of the live stream because they’re a pack of Cee U Next Tuesdays) included messages referring to “cobbers”, and having seen what looks like his twitter page with pics on it that match the rifle magazines in the video, he appears to be Australian, with a cartoon profile pic which looks disturbingly like a caricature of Bob Katter

  4. Osman Farouqi commenting on grubby SkyFoxNews – showing the true heart of new head Paul,’The Ratbag’ Whittaker..

    “They’re even running an advertisement before it. They are literally trying to profit off a massacre.

    This is one of the most appalling, dangerous and senseless things I’ve seen in the media.”

  5. Just saw a snippet of the NZ PM. What a woman………….she sure makes our vacuum-cleaner look-alike PM, seem very second rate indeed. Where is Andrew Bolt when his country needs him? It would be the irony of ironies if this terrible event had an Oz as a lead figure…………………..The sobering thing ……..as if we need to remind ourselves …………..is that nowhere is ‘safe’ these days.

  6. sprocket_
    says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 2:36 pm
    Jonathan Green pointing out the asswipes on SkyFoxNews..
    and @SkyNewsAust now showing bits of the shooter pov video, that is a serious lapse in judgment.
    ________________________
    I was sitting at my desk and was exposed to it. Fortunately they edited it. You see the gunman enter the mosque and then it cuts and you see him leave, get into his car, drive to another mosque and fire his gun through the window at people at a distance.

  7. “guytaur says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 2:16 pm
    Quasar
    Was probably timed for the Climate strikes. I don’t think even the LNP have sunk that low yet.”

    Friday is the Muslim day of prayer etc at the mosque. Apparently about 500 people were in the mosque.

    stuff.co.nz is carrying updates.

  8. and @SkyNewsAust now showing bits of the shooter pov video, that is a serious lapse in judgment.

    Appalling. If I didn’t have to be on the net for work right now I’d be closing off all channels of communication.

    Apart from the fine denizens of PB, that is.

    Oh, and Mrs Murray, mustn’t forget her.

  9. I wonder if the Australian terrorist will be tried in time for a request for transfer to Australia as an undesirable to land on Dutton’s desk.

  10. and @SkyNewsAust now showing bits of the shooter pov video, that is a serious lapse in judgment.
    ___________________
    Although to be accurate Sky News Australia is taking the SKYNZ feed at the moment so it is their decision.

  11. Just popped down to look at the tail end of the Kids Strike.
    Some of it was bizarre, including a giant Mack Truck blowing bubbles.
    But the vibe appeared to be good.

  12. Late Riser@1:39pm
    Ireland is part of EU. Today UK parliament asked for extension of Brexit date. All the 27 EU countries have to agree to that request. What if Ireland does not accept for date extension until UK accepts Ireland back stop?

  13. New Zealand Police

    @nzpolice
    Replying to @nzpolice
    Police are aware there is extremely distressing footage relating to the incident in Christchurch circulating online. We would strongly urge that the link not be shared. We are working to have any footage removed.

    268
    2:49 PM – Mar 15, 2019

  14. Some of the basic elements of good policy:

    1. The problem is clearly defined.
    2. The policy addresses the problem.
    3. The policy is practicable.
    4. Large consequences are identified and addressed.
    5. The policy can readily be communicated.
    6. The policy addresses the problem in a cost effective way.
    7. The policy is consistent with other policies.

    Taken as a set, the Greens GMO policies, Defence policies, Uranium mining policies and Nuclear Deployment policies fail all of those tests of good policy.

  15. Greensborough Growler says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 2:49 pm
    Yet another fail for Greens pre-selection processes.

    Spectacular own goal by G defender… self-sabotage as art-form…political performance art, by Liblings, for all to enjoy…

  16. And another Greens fail!

    Sky News Australia

    Verified account

    @SkyNewsAust
    16h16 hours ago
    More
    NSW Greens candidate for Wakehurst, Lilith Zaharias, says MDMA should be sold in supermarkets:

  17. I opened Twitter .

    My timeline support for NZ. Outrage at Morrison thought and prayers after years of demonising Muslims.

    Lots and lots of fantastic photos of Climate strike rallies.

  18. Saw the dead tree DT today at a cafe. Aside from totally biased coverage of the NSW election, they’ve done a deal with Western Sydney University to allow all students to access the Oz and DT online for free.
    Payment details (if any) are not mentioned.

    Uni person is claimed to have said “We want our students to have good and reliable information. We don’t want them to be informed by fake news.” (my transcription)

    Presumably Murdoch won’t be proclaiming this university as a hotbed of left wing extremists!

  19. Now is the time to take away all of the little boys’ guns. No private use. No use without personal accountability. License and track every bullet, every weapon, every gun sale. No exceptions. Fuck the gun lovers. Every gun is a potential murder weapon, everyone who uses them a potential murderer.

  20. Just saw the shooters own video of the shootings. He is a Brenton Tarrant, has a pile of weapons, bump loading with dual magazines semi auto rifles, the video runs for 17 minutes and is horrific. He has literally hit at least 20 odd people it appears most are killed. It is sickening to watch.
    Mass murder by a terrorist, he is rationally commenting at points thru the video. Totally planned, says he is going to two mosques. Just horrific!

  21. And since careless bastards like Leyonhjelm have been in federal parliament, the number of gun sales in Australia has been increasing.

  22. Barney
    There are 4.9 million people in New Zealand and 1.1 million firearms.
    Assuming that around three quarters of the population is 18+ = 3.7 million adults.
    1.1 million firearms.
    So, there is actually more than one gun for every four adults.

  23. “Scomo airing any dirty laundry today? Wouldn’t put it past this lot to ‘game’ the NZ Tragedy”

    OMG, you’d think it was a joke – but he actually has – Craig Laundy’s resignation just happened to slip out.

  24. Australia now has more firearms than before the Howard Laws.
    These include Adler shotguns that can readily be modified (using online purchases in Australia) to fire multiple rounds.

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