BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. Samantha Dunns resignation is very troubling.

    As a long time Green her words carry a lot of weight.

    Clearly there are still serious issues with structural processes.

    Hopefully Victorian leader Samantha Ratnam gets on the front foot to publicly calm voters concerns.

  2. Burgey @ #2513 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 1:52 pm

    Apparently the bloke is still active and on the loose. I say “bloke”, because the sick bastard live streamed the shooting to facebook. I kid you not.

    Be careful looking at social media results for this incident, as that’s how I stumbled upon it. You do not want to watch it, you cannot unsee it.

    If it’s genuine and the bloke is who it seems he is, he looks like a deranged racist who also posted some sick manifesto to 8 Chan.

    With the car bomb and what seems like the second shooting site, this really reminds me of Brevik.

    You’re right. This is Brevik not Bryant.

  3. Lately….I’m not sure which jurisdiction would apply…I’m guessing the European Court of Justice would be able to hear a claim. This must be mentioned in the Agreement itself but otherwise the general law relating to Treaties would have effect. I will ask one of my kids….should be able to tell me….

  4. IOM

    I won’t. I feel sick about it as it is. Don’t need to visualise it.
    I have yet to see any footage or reportage of the drug addled guy who went on rampage in Melbourne CBD last year.

  5. rhwombat

    Yep Brevik flavor. From NZ Herald.

    ” who had a lot of magazines strapped to his legs, Weatherhead said.

    “He was in a uniform but I haven’t been able to find out what kind. He had a vest on as well.”

  6. Burgey.

    I decided not to follow social media for exactly this reason

    Relying on NewsRadio livestream of NZ reports.
    Thanks for warning everyone

  7. Afternoon all. Well the smell of revolution is in the air. I just got back from lunch in Adelaide and passed the climate action rally as it marched down King William Street from North Terrace towards Victoria Square. Not as big as Sydney and there had been some drop off from the 11AM start at Parliament. But I would say there were still around a thousand marching (police escort, took several changes of lights to pass) and at least the front 3/4 of them were school kids, majority girls as others have said.

    Judging from some of the signs, ScumMo is not this crowd’s favourite person. Implying they were manipulated by Green activists was clearly a mistake. The main organisers appeared to be students. There were a few older leftist hangers-on at the back, but they were just trying to tag along.

    Shorten would be wise to have a real climate policy announced soon. I understand why he was cautious in the past. But after the last summer the tide has not just turned on this issue. It has gone out. And ScumMo looks like a beached whale.

  8. Interesting that posters have suggested that more girls are marching. Perhaps I’d better not comment but I’m not surprised.

  9. Victoria,

    By the shooter. He was wearing a helmet camera.

    Don’t look for it. You can’t unsee it. I don’t know if I’m going to be able to sleep tonight.

  10. RW/sectarian hatreds…gone utterly beserk….Christchurch…it is too much….the Hansonite/RW Christo-mania is responsible for this. In Australia, the Liberty Alliance, hoping to become the Yellow Jerseys, are an expression of this kind of madness….poor NZ…

  11. I wonder if there is also change in the air at the ABC? Interesting that there was not much sign of editorial censorship on either of these stories today. In one, ScumMo’s claim is directly called “baseless”.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-15/fact-check-dutton-refugees-hospital-beds/10900474

    And here on coal
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-15/the-coalition-is-trapped-in-its-coal-minefield/10902334

    Once people realise the government is about to change, I think a lot of dirty linen will be aired.

  12. As for Christchurch, my sympathy for the victims. The RW racist hate mongers who stoke the fires of this kind share a lot of the blame. They create the mood that tips these nutters off.

  13. Burgey

    Do consider all mental health recommendations for trauma. Seeing that, it’s possible to suffer PTSD.

    My best wishes for no harm. 🙂

  14. Peter van Onselen

    Craig Laundy told the PM and his team he would announce his retirement from politics tomorrow. It leaked today (during the NZ shooting) rather than be a bigger story tomorrow. No one else knew. No wonder the public is so cynical about politics… #auspol

  15. ‘One of New Zealand’s darkest days’ – Jacinda Ardern speaks to the country
    She confirms one suspect is in custody, but police are still searching to see if more people were involved.

    She calls it “an unprecedented act of violence.

  16. Hope the Australian PM is listening to the NZ PM so that he can learn how to conduct himself in a prime ministerial manner…….. she’s on ABC 24 now.

    Apparently Muslims are the target.

  17. Rex Douglas
    says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 2:06 pm
    If you are one who is searching for the gunmans video, take a breath and reconsider what you’re doing.
    _______________________________
    I agree. My nephew when young and feeling bulletproof watched one of those isis decapitation videos. Needless to say it caused some issues. Don’t do it to yourself

  18. Politico – Why Trump did not stop Senate revolt on wall.
    I need a clarification. Now that Trump is going to Veto this resolution, can he still go ahead with his Emergency declaration and divert money for Wall building?

    https://www-politico-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/www.politico.com/amp/story/2019/03/14/trump-failed-gop-border-emergency-1222235?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.politico.com%2Fstory%2F2019%2F03%2F14%2Ftrump-failed-gop-border-emergency-1222235

  19. Thanks guys, fortunately I have a lot of work to do and things to write. I do appreciate the sentiment though.

    Ardern is a class act, isn’t she?

  20. Wise words from Steven Hail about the term “government debt”.

    Should you read complaints, from politicians or journalists, about the Coalition doubling government debt in Australia, since they came to office, please (a) ignore said politician or journalist and (b) make a mental note to treat anything they write or say about macroeconomics with due scepticism in the future.

    When the government came to office, and even more so when the previous government came to office, there was a severe lack of government debt in the Australian financial system, due to years of inappropriate fiscal policy.

    The same fiscal policy which has burdened Australian households with the world’s second highest debt ratio.

    The same fiscal policy which meant that when international banking regulations meant private banks had to hold more government debt than before, as a safe asset, there was not enough government debt available in Australia, so APRA had to make an exception for our banks.

    If you start with no net debt and hardly any gross debt, then even a reluctant acceptance of fiscal deficits, when underemployment is high and tax receipts are low, due to a lack of effective demand in the economy, will push up government debt.

    The problem in Australia was, and remains, that fiscal deficits are too low, and that in consequence an insufficient amount of government debt has been created to meet the needs of our financial system and our economy.

    Remember, government deficit = private surplus.

    Government debt = net supply of Australian dollars to everyone else.

    Deficits and debt can be excessive if they contribute to rising inflation.

    Deficits and debt are insufficient when there is excessive underemployment, no inflationary pressures and/or a reliance of imprudent financial deregulation and world record household debt to support the economy.

    Australia’s fiscal problem in recent years has been an irresponsible failure to run sufficient fiscal deficits, which ought to have been determined by the levels required to support a federal job guarantee.

    I would not issue government debt securities at all. I would offer investors term deposits at the RBA instead. But if we must issue government securities, please can we stop thinking about them as though they are debt in the conventional sense of the term.

    They are not.

    They are the net supply of Australian dollars to the non-government sector.

    The government has doubled the net supply of Australian dollars to the private sector.

    They should have gone much further than this.

    Complaints about them issuing more government debt are badly ill-informed, misleading and should be avoided and when necessary identified as ill-advised.

    https://www.facebook.com/green.modernmoneytheoryandpractice/posts/2152240621525736

  21. While I deeply sympathise with Christchurch, I hope it does not detract from the significance of the student protests today. Most of the kids I saw march will be too young to vote this year. But they will almost all vote in three years time. Labor internally must kiss Adani and new coal plants goodbye. If they don’t in office they might only get one term.

  22. Hurrah ! Morrison is sending in the hackneyed phrases to ChCh.

    Scott Morrison
    (@ScottMorrisonMP)……………………our thoughts and prayers are with our Kiwi cousins.

  23. briefly

    I am trying to turn my mind to something else, perhaps you are too. Brexit might serve. So I am reading the PDF you linked for me.
    https://www.thebritishacademy.ac.uk/sites/default/files/TheGoodFridayAgreementBrexitandRights_0.pdf

    It seems that there are a number of preceding agreements (rights and remedies) that feed into and support the Good Friday Agreement, the most far reaching and profound deriving from co-membership of the EU. If the UK leaves the EU then those rights and remedies go away. The basis for the GFA is weakened. as an example

    Because of the supremacy of EU law, national law is thus prevented from reducing rights protections below EU standards … Individuals would, for example, have a right to compensation, if at all, only under UK law, and that right could be reduced or limited or removed by UK legislation.

    I will keep reading, but it seems that though the GFA will continue many or most of its elements will lose the force of law.

  24. On Saturday, Laundry is going to announce retirement at election.

    I have long been an admirer of former top cop Nick Kaldas and was quite disappointed for his name to have been mentioned as Laundy’s possible replacement, earlier in the week.

    But he knocked back Morrison’s offer. That is good news.

  25. Rex Douglas says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 1:54 pm

    Samantha Dunns resignation is very troubling.

    As a long time Green her words carry a lot of weight.

    Clearly there are still serious issues with structural processes.

    Hopefully Victorian leader Samantha Ratnam gets on the front foot to publicly calm voters concerns.

    Isn’t that the problem?

    Shouldn’t she deal with the internal issues raised, rather than worry about the public perception?

  26. Jonathan Green pointing out the asswipes on SkyFoxNews..

    and @SkyNewsAust now showing bits of the shooter pov video, that is a serious lapse in judgment.

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