BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. C@t

    I love it when the Tories wheel out Howard.

    Just like having Henderson on Insiders it shows how rooted in the past they are.

    It smacks of a desperate attempt to appeal to older voters.

  2. RR
    Haha. Swimming on an Antarctic beach. I always get a buzz when seeing a Nothofagus. I feel directly connected to continental drift and to the immensity of time as well as a wonderful capacity for this tree to hang in over time.

  3. I’d be happy for Victoria, SA and Tasmania to secede from Australia and join NZ as the people’s southern republic (progressive, educated, nice) and leave the cashed-up bogan red neck states to go on as ‘Straya . We’ll have to teach the Kiwi’s how to play real footy, but otherwise I think it’d work.

  4. My fav recent NZ issue was watching ‘Hunting Aotearoa’ and they shot a pig hunting ep in western NSW. The Aussie-based Maori hunters were referred to as ‘Mossies’.

  5. I wonder whether Howard has the capacity to shift a single vote. I suppose he might have the capacity to keep some votes where they are.

  6. Confessions

    The Aborigines could have done with clause two of the Waitangi Treaty

    ……………. confirmed and guaranteed to the chiefs ‘exclusive and undisturbed possession of their lands and estates, forests, fisheries, and other properties’. The Crown sought an exclusive right to deal with Māori over land transactions.

  7. ‘The Aussie-based Maori hunters were referred to as ‘Mossies’.’

    I met some Chinese-Australians when we were on holiday (we helped them learn how to snorkel). They told us that they refer to themselves as ‘bananas’.

  8. sustainable future @ #2507 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 10:04 pm

    I’d be happy for Victoria, SA and Tasmania to secede from Australia and join NZ as the people’s southern republic (progressive, educated, nice) and leave the cashed-up bogan red neck states to go on as ‘Straya . We’ll have to teach the Kiwi’s how to play real footy, but otherwise I think it’d work.

    I live in Tassie, I’m in 😀

  9. Update on Brexit I will crosspost. Jeremy Corbyn has instructed Labour to vote for a Second Referendum as tweeted by Owen Jones Guardian reporter.

  10. poroti
    The recent High Court decision on restitution for damage to the Timber Creek traditional land area could, IMO, go a long way to delivering some of the resource elements of the Waitangi Treaty.
    Other 24/7political events have more or less completely buried the decision but, IMO, the consequences are going to be humungous.
    In some ways this decision seems to fill part of the void Rudd left when he delivered an apology without anything else.
    One of the nice things about the High Court decision is that I would be fairly certain that I taught some of the older claimants.

  11. Boerwar

    We felt this up in the Kimberley seeing Boabs – but I now find that the wonders of DNA analysis have cast doubt on the theory that the Boabs in Africa, Madagascar and Australia were separated when Gondwanaland broke up. Instead there is now a theory that the Australian ones are a more recent phenomenon due to seed dispersal across the India Ocean, or even taken by African people 60,000 years ago.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adansonia_gregorii

    http://www.uq.edu.au/nuq/jack/BoabOrigins.html

  12. ‘zoomster says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 10:09 pm

    ‘The Aussie-based Maori hunters were referred to as ‘Mossies’.’’

    Also used for muslims as in ‘Aussie Mozzies’

    One of my nephews worked in an Italian restaurant in Carlton. He was the only non-Italian there. So naturally he was ‘Skippy’.

  13. guytaur

    Interesting. I see – a referendum on Teresa May’s deal. That would seem logical (and therefore in the current climate in the UK will probably never happen!). Looking at the other UK papers to see if they were onto it yet.

    ps – I am no Rugby Union follower but I know enough to understand that a Scotland-England 38-38 tie is pretty astounding these days. Especially when England led 31-0 after half an hour, then trailed 31-38 with seconds to go.

  14. The White Supremacists were initially attracted to the Beatles’ White album because of its title. However, upon listening to it they realised it didn’t reflect their “values”. So, they recorded their own tracks:

    Backed by the NRA

    While my semi murders peeps

    Happiness is a warm gun (as GG noted)

    Bye bye my dear

    I’m so tired (of being Mr Nice Guy)

    Blackbirding (is cool)

    Why don’t we do it in the mosque (like last Friday)

    I will (kill at will)

    Sexy semi

    Hitler Shelters

  15. @MuslimIQ
    Follow Follow @MuslimIQ
    More
    This is New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, grieving with the Muslim community as they mourn the 49 departed, & wearing a hijab in solidarity.❤️

    What a powerful example of compassion and leadership. May she & her nation prosper in love & peace.❤️
    #NewZealandMosqueAttack


    I hope this woman remains PM of NZ for a very long time. Class, leadership, genuine grief.. look at those eyes. We could only wish for a PM like this one in Oz one day but hope springs eternal.

  16. Burgey

    Is there an Ipsos poll this evening?

    Doesn’t look that way. I think they used to come out Monday mornings, but mostly recently on Sunday evening. I do wonder if they were ‘in the field’ on Thursday and Friday, and then canned the whole exercise once they got news in the middle of the day about the massacre in New Zealand – perhaps figuring that their samples pre and post that news would reflect different sentiments.

  17. pica says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 10:10 pm

    poroti @ #2505 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 9:03 pm

    You would think the GG would have used a more flattering picture for the article about ‘The wheeling out” of…..
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    He looks really alarmed!
    *******************
    He looks taxidermed (if there is such a word).

  18. Third time lucky for the Libs?

    They wheeled the Divisive Dwarf (Stone, Liberal Party President’s description?) out in Victoria and in Wentworth

    Then put him back in his box in Wentworth and wheeled out Menzies

    The very same Menzies who increased Personal and Company tax rates – and increased pensions

    Liberal Party DNA, hey?

    They can’t even get their own history right (who mentioned “right”?)

  19. Wrong thread but brief – a further referendum on “Brexit” needs to be held – and only those under 40 allowed to vote

    It is their future

    The result will be the UK remaining in the EU (which needs reform, no doubt, but that is the factor of the passage of time regardless)

    Which brings us back to the Divisive Dwarf being again wheeled out!!

  20. The open dirty secret of Aus politics, that receives little comment or critique, or is dismissed often here

    Donations ‘more influential’ than polls in Australian politics
    https://www.smh.com.au/nsw-election-2019/donations-more-influential-than-polls-in-australian-politics-20190314-p514cx.html
    Donations are a bigger influence on Australian politics than polls and the major parties have a history of ignoring mainstream voter opinion, social researcher Rebecca Huntley says.

    “It doesn’t matter how many times you show a political party that not only your constituents believe something but the swinging voters do too, the ideology of the party, who is in the parliament and more importantly who pays money to political parties overwhelms what the information might be telling them.”

  21. Lord Haw Haw of Arabia says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 10:35 pm
    pica says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 10:10 pm

    poroti @ #2505 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 9:03 pm

    You would think the GG would have used a more flattering picture for the article about ‘The wheeling out” of…..
    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    He looks really alarmed!
    *******************
    He looks taxidermed (if there is such a word).
    ———————————————
    I visited Mao Zedong’s Mausoleum a few years ago in Tianamen Square.

    Howard’s skin carries the same pallor as the Great Helmsman.

  22. A one-hour ‘stop work’ on PB – very rare at this time of night!

    Obviously everyone has given up waiting for an Ipsos – after a big week with Newspoll, Essential, Pell Sentencing, Three Brexit Votes and then the tragedy in NZ.

  23. Upnorth….general concept is ‘embalmed’.

    Lenin, Mao, Ho….all were embalmed. It’s not often that people are embalmed before death. Howard is unusual in this respect if very ordinary in others.

  24. briefly says:
    Monday, March 18, 2019 at 12:16 am
    Upnorth….general concept is ‘embalmed’.

    Lenin, Mao, Ho….all were embalmed. It’s not often that people are embalmed before death. Howard is unusual in this respect if very ordinary in others.
    ———————————————————————————-
    briefly……you forgot Stalin – Uncle Joe was placed next to Lenin for about 8 years. I wonder what the Libs will do to Howard when he does fall off the perch – I hate to think of the hagiography that will occur.

  25. I see the Greens want to change the Senate rules to expel Anning. Dangerous ground – leave that to Queenslanders in May.

    Will be interesting to see how One Nation and Burston vote on the censure motions.

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