BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. nath
    As it was in the beginning………..

    Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act
    An Act to constitute the Commonwealth of Australia
    [9th July 1900]
    . Definitions
    The Commonwealth shall mean the Commonwealth of Australia as established under this Act.

    The States shall mean such of the colonies of New South Wales, New Zealand, Queensland, Tasmania, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia, including the northern territory of South Australia, as for the time being are parts of the Commonwealth, and such colonies or territories as may be admitted into or established by the Commonwealth as States; and each of such parts of the Commonwealth shall be called a State.
    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Constitution/preamble

  2. j341983 says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 8:06 pm
    Hmmm maybe no Ipsos after all?

    Yes I wonder if they were in the field on Friday and decided to can it because of events in NZ.

    I think pre-Federation there was talk of both NZ and also Fiji being a part of Australia.

  3. Steve777
    says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 8:37 pm
    New Zealand was one of the “Australian colonies” in the 1890s. It is mentioned in the Constitution. It sent representatives to constitutional conferences. Like WA, they had doubts. They could have joined the Commonwealth but unlike WA, chose not to. We couldn’t promise to connect them by rail.
    ____________________________
    Sorry that’s not accurate. The Australian colonies and New Zealand were sometimes referred to informally as Australasia or the Australasian colonies, but New Zealand, even in the colonial period has never been seen as one of the ‘Australian colonies’.

  4. And whereas it is expedient to provide for the admission into the Commonwealth of
    other Australasian Colonies and possessions of the Queen …
    Preamble, Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900 (UK)

    ‘The States’ shall mean such of the colonies of New South Wales, New Zealand,
    Queensland, Tasmania, Victoria, Western Australia, and South Australia, including
    the northern territory of South Australia, as for the time being are parts of the
    Commonwealth, and such colonies or territories as may be admitted into or established
    by the Commonwealth as States; and each of such parts of the Commonwealth shall be
    called ‘a State.’

    Commonwealth of Australia Constitution Act 1900 (UK), s 6

    http://www.nzlii.org/nz/journals/CanterLawRw/2010/4.pdf

  5. “We really should have had NZ in a country with Australia, with north and south islands as states. Oceania or something.”
    Lucky for the Maori the white skips didn’t take over NZ then – they might have met the same fate as the Aboriginal people here.

  6. John Winston Howard stars in Liberal ad on gun control.. verbals Daley & SFF .. the short arse has lied all his life & not he’s going to change now.

  7. Kate:

    I saw last week that Katharine Murphy announced on her Facebook account that Sarah Martin was joining the Guardian as its chief political correspondent. I’d never heard of her before seeing her on Insiders, so have no knowledge of her writings at the West.

  8. Sceptic @ #2459 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 8:48 pm

    John Winston Howard stars in Liberal ad on gun control.. verbals Daley & SFF .. the short arse has lied all his life & not he’s going to change now.

    As was mentioned earlier, Gladys Berejiklian herself has done deals with the SFF, whilst in government, which is way worse than any preference swap. Which isn’t even binding on the voters.

  9. From memory at one stage NZ made a choice not become part of Australia as we know it now. They certainly were a commonwealth colony beforehand as an extension of the NSW colony but when push came to shove they chose not become a part of Australia. Very early in the 1900s, perhaps immediately after the constitution was proposed and approved by each State/Territory except NZ ? I think that’s right.

    ” For even though they were not yet federated, it was common to refer to the five “mainland colonies” together with Tasmania collectively as “Australia” and to mean by this a kind of collective whole, quite distinct from, and more unified than, the wider group of south Asiatic states known as “Australasia”

    Source: same paper quoted earlier.

  10. Kate @ #3449 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 8:29 pm

    Just found out that Sarah Martin is moving to The Guardian.

    She’s been at The West since Probyn left for the ABC and always toed the editorial line – totally ignored Helloworld and Paladin for example but plenty of ‘exclusive’ puff pieces on Tory politicians.

    I’d noted that bludgers were impressed with her on Insiders last week (and thought ooh her Editor won’t like that) – seems she was already off the leash.

    It’s made me realise that most political journos have limited freedom – there have been pointed Tweets after Chch talking of financial reward to those journos prepared to encourage islamophobia – from memory exposed by a SMH journo.

    I wish Sarah well at The Guardian.

    The (ex)”SMH journo” was Lisa Prior. She left to contribute to Mr Rifle’s legions of homicidal doctors.

  11. itsthevibe (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 3:08 pm
    Comment #2135
    I know I’ll regret posing this question, but:

    – Those to the left of Australian Labor, who have formed their own party….

    There is no such party. There is an outfit that runs decoy positions – really, camouflage – but they’re not Left. They hope at all times and places to defeat Labor, the authentic political organ of working people.

    The rest of your question is irrelevant.

  12. Zali Steggall is killing it on social media. She’s real, she’s engaging and she’s authentic. So unlike Abbott’s tweets and Facebook posts that make it so obvious someone else is managing his accounts. Which is probably why he thought he needed to step up on that front by launching his first Facebook ad.

    The only thing is that he left the comments section open by mistake and the results were predictable.

    https://newmatilda.com/2019/03/15/tony-abbott-left-the-comments-open-on-his-first-ever-facebook-ad-you-can-guess-the-outcome/

  13. Kate @ #2444 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 8:29 pm

    Just found out that Sarah Martin is moving to The Guardian.

    She’s been at The West since Probyn left for the ABC and always toed the editorial line – totally ignored Helloworld and Paladin for example but plenty of ‘exclusive’ puff pieces on Tory politicians.

    I’d noted that bludgers were impressed with her on Insiders last week (and thought ooh her Editor won’t like that) – seems she was already off the leash.

    It’s made me realise that most political journos have limited freedom – there have been pointed Tweets after Chch talking of financial reward to those journos prepared to encourage islamophobia – from memory exposed by a SMH journo.

    I wish Sarah well at The Guardian.

    I hear she showed up Uhlmann with her acting abilities on Secret City…..

  14. Kevin Bonham opines on Twitter –

    “If the expulsion power was restored to the Senate, then any party with support from the Senate to do so could get any Senator who defected from their party expelled and have that Senator replaced with a member of their party (subject to state agreement) under S15.

    “However, S15 replacement might get messy in a case like Storer. At the time of being chosen (whatever that is) was he “recognized by a particular political party as being an endorsed candidate of that party and publicly represented himself to be such a candidate”? In theory there could also be an impasse, with the Senate persistently expelling a Senator only to have the Senator’s party and state reappoint the same person”.

    https://twitter.com/kevinbonham.

    Anning has formally resigned from PHON. If this was the start of an election cycle not the end in which there will be very little real time to do anything about Anning beyond the Wong-Cormann censor motion, perhaps the expulsion power of the Senate could be restored and Anning could be expelled. It looks like a censor motion is the best we can hope for given the circumstances.

  15. Dio
    The Southern Ocean is a big place. It is complicated.

    We own Macquarie Island and Heard Island and can police the economic zone around it off our own bat.

    Other waters are subject to:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctic_Treaty_System

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viarsa_1https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viarsa_1
    We are also in a Convention that applies.

    http://www.antarctica.gov.au/science/conservation-and-management-research/southern-ocean-fisheries/fish-and-fisheries

  16. Confessions: The treaty of Waitangi granted the Maori the rights of British Subjects. As consequence the rights of Maori had to be ensured in the constitution of Australia and they were excluded from Section 127. They have been counted in Australian censuses since the start and were allowed to vote in all Australian elections as long as they were British subjects (until the British subjects had to become Australians).
    If New Zealand had become a state of Australia, things might actually be better.

  17. Cat

    On John Howard. The more they wheel out the guy that started us down the path of division that ended up with a massacre in NZ the better.

    There was good reason there was so much hope and expectation about Labor in the first few months of Rudd’s Prime Ministership. With two things Labor in that first period did meet those expectations.

    The Sorry Day.
    Acting to prevent a recession due to the US financial system collapse

  18. Sceptic @ #2473 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 9:21 pm

    C@t

    NSW Liberals playing on NZ tragedy for political gain would suggest they are history next week & they know it.

    Very interestingly, over on the NSWpol thread, someone has pointed out the preference deal Gladys has done with the LibDems, whose gun policies are actually worse, if such a thing could be believed, than the SFFs. But we are talking about David Leyonhjelm. So utter hypocrisy and desperation on show here.

  19. guytaur,
    Most of the young people voting don’t even know who that old codger in the ad is. They’ve heard that John Howard brought in the tough gun laws for Australia but I doubt they know or care about what the old man in the ad is saying. If they watch it at all.

  20. Cat

    The last they heard about that old guy he was defending a convicted child abuser.

    Plus like with Blair the young know who joined the Iraq War.

  21. I have a few NZ friends and while we often joked about a united Australasia they were always fiercely independent; they were proud of their national autonomy, and so they should be. It would be a gross legal and cultural injustice if we were ever united.

  22. BW

    Interesting article about the Antarctic Beech. Also I learnt new words “vagile” and “vagility” – sort of ‘wandering’. Now didn’t Malcolm Turnbull declare that he (or was it Australia, always a bit hard to separate the two in his mind when he was PM) was “agile”.

    It seems now he has made the transition to “vagile”.

    I met someone who went swimming at an Antractic “Beach”! Somewhere on the Antarctic Peninsula below South America where there was super hot water coming out of the ground and running straight into the ocean – so there was a zone where you could go in the water, and they were game!

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