BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  7. Confessions @ #2366 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 6:39 pm

    SK:

    That reminds me that this year is the 50th anniversary of Woodstock Festival!

    I wonder how many of the artists who performed are still going today? Joe Cocker springs to mind.

    fess,

    Joe’s not doing much springing these days. He passed on a few years ago.

  8. Poroti we should all go and hug our non white friends and take a picture of the hug with the ok signal and post it on line with the caption up yours

  9. EB @ #2403 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 6:28 pm

    This from Matthias Cormann on Twitter.

    https://twitter.com/MathiasCormann/status/1107115395666710528

    —
    Penny Wong, check. She has been fighting against all forms of discrimination for her entire career. Matthias Cormann, umm..what the… . Progressive thinking is the new Regressive ?

    This is a win for Wong. It is hard to imagine Cormann starting the conversation that ends in a bi-partisan censure of Anning.

  16. Late Riser @ #2408 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 7:33 pm

    EB @ #2403 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 6:28 pm

    This from Matthias Cormann on Twitter.

    https://twitter.com/MathiasCormann/status/1107115395666710528

    —
    Penny Wong, check. She has been fighting against all forms of discrimination for her entire career. Matthias Cormann, umm..what the… . Progressive thinking is the new Regressive ?

    This is a win for Wong. It is hard to imagine Cormann starting the conversation that ends in a bi-partisan censure of Anning.

    —
    In principle the Senate censuring Anning has to be a good thing at least in letting the Kiwi’s know the Government institution from which this grub comes rejects his attitude and his values and it is on the record. On the other hand, … I don’t know, it just makes me feel circumspect on Matthias underlying motives I guess.

  17. Late Riser @ #2406 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 4:33 pm

    EB @ #2403 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 6:28 pm

    This from Matthias Cormann on Twitter.

    https://twitter.com/MathiasCormann/status/1107115395666710528

    —
    Penny Wong, check. She has been fighting against all forms of discrimination for her entire career. Matthias Cormann, umm..what the… . Progressive thinking is the new Regressive ?

    This is a win for Wong. It is hard to imagine Cormann starting the conversation that ends in a bi-partisan censure of Anning.

    The comments underneath his tweet aren’t exactly favourable towards Cormann either.

  18. lizzie
    Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 5:14 pm
    Comment #2275

    The yard there was pretty overgrown with long grass. There were also rats in the house, finding easy access as there were gaps below the weatherboards. We discovered how comfortable they were when we found the lapels of OH’s best suits removed entirely.

    What a great story. These must have been the best dressed 🐀 rats 🐀 in the country. Not excluding bogan type MP’s.

    P.S. A rat in a suit bears no relation to a Pig in A Blanket. 🌭

    Goodnight all. ☮

  19. There’s a lot of justification in bagging Cormann and Morrison for suddenly coming out against the alt-right and their fellow travellers. But I’d rather that than Trump, who has doubled down on his rhetoric after making patently superficial words of sympathy.

    Even though they should have pushed back earlier and not played dog whistle politics, at least they are doing it now – which does not provide further encouragement to the white scum who support the ex-PHON senator.

    That is something at least that is positive. Which is why Penny Wong is happy to sign on to Cormann’s motion

  20. An interesting read. Mosley’s first wife was a daughter of Lord Curzon, Viceroy of India. Mosley’s second wife was, I believe, one of the fabled Mitfords:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oswald_Mosley

    The period immediately before and during the beginning of WW2 were, IMO, as confused a time politically as the Brits are going through now.

  22. ‘TPOF says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 7:44 pm

    There’s a lot of justification in bagging Cormann and Morrison for suddenly coming out against the alt-right and their fellow travellers. But I’d rather that than Trump,…’

    There is a low bar. Then there is no bar.

  24. It is hard to imagine Cormann starting the conversation that ends in a bi-partisan censure of Anning.

    The polling explains the desperation to try and pretend that they aren’t hate mongers.

  25. Cormann to co-sponsor a resolution to censure Anning, Dutton saying no money for coal, Morrison saying nice things about renewable energy…

    This all leads to one conclusion: the LNP know they are totally and utterly f***ed in the eyes of the electorate. Next we will be hearing Abbott singing “The East is Red” and Frydenberg calling for the economy to operate according to Marxist-Leninist principles.

  26. Some background on the OK symbol and the O-KKK connection:

    This is especially infuriating because the story goes that it was originally conceived of as a hoax on 4chan – to see if they could trick the media into reporting on it as a symbol of the Alt Right (This hoax was called “Operation O-KKK”). Several media outlets did, which they took as a victory. So then some started using it, to show that they were “in on the joke” and “owning the libs” for being so crazy that they could be tricked into thinking the OK-symbol was a Far Right symbol (this was part of a larger impression in those communities that the mainstream would brand anything vaguely offensive as Alt-Right). And then self-declared White Supremacists and Neo-Nazis started using it, and then… well, you see how it goes. Several of the organizers of the Charlottesville “Unite the Right” rally used it in social media, and it was used during the rally as well. The line between smug irony and sincerity became muddled. It meant anything and everything. If someone got caught parroting the meme, they could just turn around and laugh about how “paranoid” the mainstream was getting.

    The far right loves shit like this – symbols and language that offers plausible deniability because it’s seen as “ironic” and because non-far-right people also use it as jokes. It’s… infuriating.

    …and always keep in mind the Goatfucker Rule: Even if you’re fucking a goat ironically, you’re still a goatfucker.

  28. citizen @ #2425 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 7:50 pm

    Cormann to co-sponsor a resolution to censure Anning, Dutton saying no money for coal, Morrison saying nice things about renewable energy…

    This all leads to one conclusion: the LNP know they are totally and utterly f***ed in the eyes of the electorate. Next we will be hearing Abbott singing “The East is Red” and Frydenberg calling for the economy to operate according to Marxist-Leninist principles.

    Libs are embarking on the biggest reverse ferret ever seen!

  29. poroti
    I went to Milford Sound a few years back. All I saw was fog.

    The weather today on Doubtful Sound was perfect: sunny, calm and warm at 23C.

    The Captain and crew repeatedly told us it was one of the ten perfect days expected per year (average annual rainfall there is 9,000mm per year). They were having as much of a good time as we were. We went three kilometres out to sea, it was so calm. Dolphins, seals and penguins all out basking in the sun on various islands and arms of the fiord.

    The cliffs are 700-900 metres tall, vertically straight up from the sea. The depth of the water ranges from 25 to 450 metres. It’s so clear you can see the bottom near the shallow
    end (where the wharf is). Multiple perfect U-shaped hanging valleys were everywhere, on both sides of the waterway. I’d seen only one in my life, at Yosemite, but after today dozens more.

    And no sandflies for some reason.

    For an Aussie boy used to weathered, brown hills being classed as “mountains”, to see in the space of a few days literally hundreds of real-life, genuine mountains,1,800 metres-plus (up to 3,700 metres) in the alps proper, rising sheer out of the ground, is almost unbelievable. It takes your breath away.

    The rivers aren’t like ours either. They are bedded almost exclusively with rounded, weathered morraine, crystal clear and fast flowing, not slow and muddy like Australian rivers. Evetywhere you look the landscape is breathtaking: green, overgrown – absolutely impenetrable – with fern forests and thick, drenched jungle.

    Until recently – the last 600 years or so, there were virtually no land mammals, no spiders or snakes (you see almost zero road kill here – nothing much to run over). Spiders and snakes are still pretty-well scarce (no snakes at all actually). The forests and the birds ruled New Zealand for millions of years, until Mankind came here.

    And the midgies ruled too, more so (they tell me) today, due to the infkux of mammals. They are the one detraction from perfection here. They can really drive you crazy with their incessant swarming aggression, especially (and mostly) on the West Coast of the South Island.

  30. Regardless of skin, colour or religion. Well said.

    “New Zealand’s notorious Black Power gang has performed an emotional haka at the police cordon to the Linwood mosque, saying — unlike the white supremacist gunman allegedly behind the mass murder — they would not hide their colours.

    About a dozen members of the gang broke the solemn silence at a flower vigil point for locals, to perform the ceremonial Maori challenge which received rousing applause.

    A spokesman, who declined to be named, said everyone was grieving the murder of 50 people regardless of skin colour or religion.”

    https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/world/christchurch-mosque-shooting-black-power-issues-haka-challenge-to-white-supremacists/news-story/07b4f06796e88c8e8ec2a22927be9f19

  33. citizen @ #2425 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 7:50 pm

    Cormann to co-sponsor a resolution to censure Anning, Dutton saying no money for coal, Morrison saying nice things about renewable energy…

    This all leads to one conclusion: the LNP know they are totally and utterly f***ed in the eyes of the electorate. Next we will be hearing Abbott singing “The East is Red” and Frydenberg calling for the economy to operate according to Marxist-Leninist principles.

    —

    Yep. Progressive has become the new Regressive all of a sudden.

  34. One thing is sure, the libs won’t be able to dog-whistle at the next election and Manus will be a millstone around their necks. In other words, they’ve had their hands tied behind their backs, poor bastards. And won’t it be easy for Bill to bring everyone on-shore after the election!

  35. The “full force of the law” should be unleashed on who it should be unleashed on

    In regards what, exactly?

    Bear in mind the “debate” we had in “free speech” sponsored by the Party of Ad Man from Mad Men with his megaphone and his media, including the likes of Bolt and his fellow right wing travellers

    So can the individual be charged over what he has said – and under what law?

    Or for the individuals reaction to having an egg broken the individual?

    So an assault?

    Would Ad Man from Mad Men with his megaphone and his media care to expand on the “full force of the law”?

    All Ad Man from Mad Men seeks is being in the media described as “prime minister”, which is his claim to fame

  36. GG

    He does put in on the line. As he knows more than most being right in the middle of the Brexit shit show.

    Change is coming. Even though it is hard to see amongst all the colour and movement. An awakening and a disavowing of what has been put before us. Gonna take more time, but it is happening nonetheless.

  37. We really should have had NZ in a country with Australia, with north and south islands as states. Oceania or something.

  38. Diogenes @ #2437 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 8:17 pm

    We really should have had NZ in a country with Australia, with north and south islands as states. Oceania or something.

    They are already in our Constitution just waiting for them to come on board. However, they seem to think they are doing fine on their own.

  40. Dio

    Maybe NZ could mount a takeover.

    I like the look of their PM. I reckon she would be up to the job.

    And we’d never lose to them in rugby again

  41. Just watched Insiders, Henderson was told off on the issue of Anning traveling to Victoria. Cassidy asked how was he justifying repeated trips to Victoria when he was a Queensland senator. Henderson tried to defend this, saying senators can travel on any parliamentary business.
    This was after a discussion on Milo’s cancelled tour, and Henderson tried to defend the Government’s change of decision on granting a visa.

  42. Sprocket – no performance is shitty with Pete Seeger in it (even if he is 90). Swedes were good, but a bit polished.

  43. ross
    “And we’d never lose to them in rugby again”
    And we’d never have to bowl underarm again.

    GG
    What does it say about them in the constitution?

  44. Just found out that Sarah Martin is moving to The Guardian.

    She’s been at The West since Probyn left for the ABC and always toed the editorial line – totally ignored Helloworld and Paladin for example but plenty of ‘exclusive’ puff pieces on Tory politicians.

    I’d noted that bludgers were impressed with her on Insiders last week (and thought ooh her Editor won’t like that) – seems she was already off the leash.

    It’s made me realise that most political journos have limited freedom – there have been pointed Tweets after Chch talking of financial reward to those journos prepared to encourage islamophobia – from memory exposed by a SMH journo.

    I wish Sarah well at The Guardian.

  46. Bushfire Bill

    Yep, until people arrived the only mammals were two small species of bat. Bird city, so they took a number of niches mammals normally did. A bit sad for them when mammals did turn up.

    Spiders ? Plenty .Guess you must have missed these common bush dwellers, there are heaps of them 🙂 Peter Jackson based one of the monsters in LoTR on them.

    Or for the indoor types.

  48. The constitution makes allowances for other states to join the Commonwealth. It was inserted in case New Zealand ever wanted to. The CER has probably removed any market need for this though.

  49. I was surprised with the New Zealand geography as well. Australia is the oldest landmass and New Zealand the newest (around 300-400m years).

  50. New Zealand was one of the “Australian colonies” in the 1890s. It is mentioned in the Constitution. It sent representatives to constitutional conferences. Like WA, they had doubts. They could have joined the Commonwealth but unlike WA, chose not to. We couldn’t promise to connect them by rail.

    The door is still open but they are unlikely to change their mind.

    https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Senate/Powers_practice_n_procedures/Constitution/preamble

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