BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. Sohar@4:44pm
    “Everywhere, decent Australian is asking, how did we get here? Do we owe him?”
    Yes we own Tarrant like we own Howard, Abbott, Dutton, Morrison, Bolt, Jones, Hadley, Devine, Pell etc
    Make no mistake about it.
    There was flicker of hope when Rudd Labor government was elected in 2007 that we may change the course. But Rudd lost ticker in December 2009 after Climate change convention ( remember Rudd cursing the fu***ng Chinese) in Europe and we are in grip of hard right politicians, commentators and Murdoch press and descended into utter chaos since MT government was elected in July 2016.

  2. Not too much optimism that the NZ gun lobby sees anything amiss in the current slaughter.
    Some woman representing this group interviewed via BBC this morning, said she could see no reason why guns – especially the automatic variety – should be banned “just for the sake of banning them” or wtte.
    When pushed by BBC interviewer as to why such weapons were readily available/needed and were at the heart of the murders, her reply was that the “administrative procedures could be tightened up” and her group would not have any issues with this………..in other words, the old line “People kill people”. The gun and the type of gun are, apparently to this mob, just a minor issue.
    Now where have we heard all this before?

  3. Ven @ #2302 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    Sohar@4:44pm
    “Everywhere, decent Australian is asking, how did we get here? Do we owe him?”
    Yes we own Tarrant like we own Howard, Abbott, Dutton, Morrison, Bolt, Jones, Hadley, Devine, Pell etc
    Make no mistake about it.
    There was flicker of hope when Rudd Labor government was elected in 2007 that we may change the course. But Rudd lost ticker in December 2009 after Climate change convention ( remember Rudd cursing the fu***ng Chinese) in Europe and we are in grip of hard right politicians, commentators and Murdoch press and descended into utter chaos since MT government was elected in July 2016.

    We need an Ardern type to straighten us out.

  4. Bequiledagain, sadly the lunatic fringe is way to big as you have no doubt noticed in everyday life. And yes I am aware of the crappy job the police have when getting a call out for a d.v however it is not always the bloke (but largely yes it is) as I heard from a very good source that in a recent marital bust up the female was the only licenced shooter at the address.

  5. On ammunition. I remember after the Sandy Hook killings in the US seeing postings where people were exchanging info on who had “specials” on for thousands of rounds of cheap 9mm ammo. Buy it now before they change the laws!!!

    frankly, anyone buying lots of ammunition should be on a watch list and sent a “please explain”.

  6. Excuse me for interrupting the Greens v. Labor Wars, but I have been out on Doubtful Sound all day – a literally awe-inspiring landscape, by the way – and was curious as to just how Barrie Cassidy smacked down Gerard Henderson this morning.

    Could someone scribble a precis for me please?

    Thanks in advance.

    P.S. Can’t watch videos as they chew up too much roaming data.

  7. Zoidlord, as I work rotating shifts in a inner city office and do seven days in a row when my weekend finally arrives every four weeks I will go bush to hunt (often never firing a shot) or go fishing or spend time in my vege patch. so yes it is different to everyday.

  8. @martini henry

    I work in the city, I travel 3 hours each day. I don’t or never needed a weapon. Plenty of other activities to do.

  9. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 5:24 pm

    “So, if we take the Greens at their policy word (which is not always a good idea), the Greens want to close down all the airports in Australia that are big enough for planes carrying (aka deploying) nuclear weapons.”

    Only if you are a complete moron.’

    That is not a policy discussion. That is just your standard Greens personal abuse when confronted with some truly silly Greens policy statements. And let’s not forget, we only investigated one sort of facility in depth. There are many, more more facilities than airports that enable deployment of nuclear weapons.

    BTW, it is inappropriate to describe the Greens as ‘complete morons’.
    Firstly, it breaks William’s rules on polite policy discourse.
    Secondly, ‘complete’ is far too sweeping.

  10. Sadly in the RCMP killings referred to earlier the killer was already banned from owning firearms. He obtained firearms from friends after the Mounties had secured his farm but managed to sneak back into the house and took the four Mounties by complete surprise.

    We probably will not stop insane idiots from carrying out insane acts. All we can do is structure laws to make it as difficult as possible for them to do so.

  11. BB
    I can’t recall the details but basically it was a bit of an Insiders team effort to stop Hendo from making a complete goose of himself.

  12. ‘dwh

    All we can do is structure laws to make it as difficult as possible for them to do so.’

    That is a bit Delphic. What do you mean?

  13. On Egg Boy’s tshirt, I was in town today and saw it proudly out the front of a shop called Connor. It had “Infinite” and 1917 in Roman numerals and a gold double diamond.
    The only reference I can get is that Einstein added his cosmological constant to his theory of relativity in 1917 but that just kept the universe static. Perhaps I’m reading too much into a dumb tshirt.
    Egg Boy also referred to the people who jumped him as “bogans” which kind of negates his point of making derogatory remarks to a group of people.

  14. Boerwar the Australian gun laws are a start. Restricting gun types, registration of owners and firearms and adequate enforcement at entry points etc.

  15. The last Ipsos poll was released 6pm Sunday 17/2/19.
    The one before that was released 8pm Sunday 16/12/18.

    Hopefully we get something in the next two hours if they continue their four-week rotation.
    (There was a nine week gap over summer)

  16. Henderson smackdown:
    Barry: Another thing the senate can look at is why a Queensland senator is spending so much time in Melbourne.
    Henderson: All senators get an allowance if they are traveling in senate business..
    Barry: To Melbourne? basically it is none of his business

  17. It appears the NZ government are pushing hard against Facebook’s laziness / ignorance / stupidity re removing offensive content from their site.

    Good on the NZ’ders for showing up the stupidity of social media darlings like F@&book.

  18. “The only reference I can get is that Einstein added his cosmological constant to his theory of relativity in 1917 but that just kept the universe static. Perhaps I’m reading too much into a dumb tshirt.”

    It’s also the year in which a protester threw an egg at the other finalist (besides Abbott) for the title “Worst Australian Prime Minister”.

  19. Diogenes

    Makes a change from the rain 🙂 A bloody shame though you did not get some clear views though. Although the stats say it is not surprising !
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milford_Sound
    mean annual rainfall of 6,412 mm (252 in) each year…… Milford Sound is known as the wettest inhabited place in New Zealand and one of the wettest in the world.

  20. Davidwh, the types and number of firearms you can own are already heavily restricted and all legal gunowners are licenced and are restricted by the condition of the licence to the type of firearm you can possess and all legal firearms must be registered and the premises of the holder of a firearm licence can and will inspected by the police.

  21. In case of interest…

    PB-Guess: Ipsos 2019-03-17

    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mode: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    PB mean: ALP 54.5 to 45.5 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 33

    🙂

  22. frednk
    Yep. That was a specific. Cassidy repeated his point a couple of times. Someone (as well as Cassidy) else pointed out that he, Hendo, was factually incorrect about Laundy’s results in the last Fed election. Hendo was certainly doing vicious snarking on Laundy.

  23. @martini henry

    Bahahahahahah typical excuses.

    I highly doubt that going on trips or using personal hobbies is never going to get banned.

    Stupid distractions, and this is why I never supported gun owners, they point fingers at others and try to make some rational argument for a distraction!

    Bahahhaahahahha

  24. Martini Henry yes I know but that isn’t the case in NZ at present and needs to be addressed. However despite the best laws there is always the possibility an insane person will carry out an insane act.

  25. @martini henry

    ‘Davidwh, the types and number of firearms you can own are already heavily restricted and all legal gunowners are licenced and are restricted by the condition of the licence to the type of firearm you can possess and all legal firearms must be registered and the premises of the holder of a firearm licence can and will inspected by the police’

    Bahahahhaha all excuses I heard before…

  26. Boerwar
    Why they have Henderson on beats me. Sits there and sulks and when he says something it proves he is a bleeding idiot.

  27. Don’t see the sense in needlessly having a gun to go roo shooting, duck shooting or pig shooting. Can understand farmers owning a firearm but the rest of the public, not so.

    No different to most people owning 4WDs, who actually can’t drive them, but never go bush with them.

    Obviously compensating for other inadequacies (you can think of many and doesn’t just apply to men).

  28. The only time Gun owners come out of their woodwork is when they think their ‘Sport’ is being threatened and is on the life line… But they are not being proactive any other given time.

  29. Dan Gulberry

    Yeah those lucky Pomgolians, they have so much more choice of immigrant demonising welfare bashing anti union RW newspapers to choose from . Poor Rupes has competition and by golly do they compete.

  30. Astrobleme (AnonBlock)
    Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 5:02 pm
    Comment #2260
    It worries me, that there is no real way to combat lies in political debates.

    Does anyone else have any ideas?
    I have tried to combat lies with facts; but it doesn’t work. They get ignored.

    How should I approach it?

    Don’t feed the trolls.

  31. Davidwh says:

    Here on Bribie some people with too much time on their hands just push all the traffic signs over.

    Wot, both of them ? 🙂

  32. Boerwar @ #2325 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 3:08 pm

    frednk
    Yep. That was a specific. Cassidy repeated his point a couple of times. Someone (as well as Cassidy) else pointed out that he, Hendo, was factually incorrect about Laundy’s results in the last Fed election. Hendo was certainly doing vicious snarking on Laundy.

    Laundy increased his 2PP margin by 1.3% at the 2016 election. Nobody on Insiders pointed that out to Henderson though, only noting that he was re-elected.

  33. Davidwh. yes I am aware that the gun laws a lot mre relaxed in N.Z compared to us her in Australia but I have never agreed with the practice of telling other countries how to run themselves.

  34. Boerwar

    There are vast ‘rookeries’ up there full of ’em waiting to swoop on passing Bushfire Bills . I bet you think the white stuff on those peaks was snow. Nae lad, that’s pure sandfly guano………….true story 🙂

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