BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. Millenial

    My point is they get the big bucks to work together when voters have elected a parliament that demands it.

    I think both Labor and the Greens should be proud of their success in doing this. Not ashamed of it.
    Its a maturity the conservative side of politics seems to find much harder to do in this country.

  2. @martini henry

    In other words killing for fun.

    Older people generation always tell us they go out side to make their own fun before phone and internet.

    So what is your excuse for your own fun?

    Can’t be that dull and fucking boring yeah?

  3. Rex Douglas @ #2245 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 3:52 pm

    martini henry @ #2241 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    A.R, the term sport used for hunting has been around since the human race took up farming to feed themselves and it not only sitting and waiting for any old animal to show up mostly you are searching out specific game and you have to move around to find them.

    Where there’s a need for food I understand the requirement to kill an animal. I’m sure though that most meat processing workers aren’t there for pleasure. As an aside, we can survive and thrive without meat anyway.

    I will never understand those who hunt for pleasure and gratification. It’s barbaric.

    Don’t worry, wait a couple of years until they legalize hunting bankers.

    Then you’ll understand.

  4. “You seem to me to be both a responsible shooter and a collector/restorer enthusiast, so as long as you keep your guns safely away from nutjobs, and especially if you eat the meat you slaughter, I agree that you have the right to be a licensed gun owner.”

    Agreed. Me, i dont like the thought of guns in my home so am not a gun owner. My choice…i chose not to accept the risks of gun ownership to me and mine.

    What sh$ts me to tears though is the assertion that “guns dont kill people, people do” which is even now being trotted our by the RWNJobbies.

    The problem is that guns, particularly the semi-auto, rapid fire, high capacity magazine types FACILITATE killing lots of people in confined spaces in a very short time. I’m not advocating a total ban on guns, but when we look at law reform we really need to be looking at removing the stuff that just has NO civilian use. FFS… if you want something for “self defense” or even hunting there are better and more effective choices for those uses out there than an AR15 or its ilk.

  5. Rex Douglas, we cannot hope to feed the worlds population on vegetable based foods alone and maintain any areas left for wildlife and by hunting rabbits,goats and deer for food and by eliminating feral pests like foxes and cats the native wildlife can have some hope to survive.

  6. imacca

    The problem is that guns, particularly the semi-auto, rapid fire, high capacity magazine types FACILITATE killing lots of people in confined spaces in a very short time. I’m not advocating a total ban on guns, but when we look at law reform we really need to be looking at removing the stuff that just has NO civilian use.

    Yesss!

  7. It worries me, that there is no real way to combat lies in political debates.

    Does anyone else have any ideas?
    I have tried to combat lies with facts; but it doesn’t work. They get ignored.

    How should I approach it?

  8. Fickle fate, survive that hell hole and get shot a few months later in NZ .

    Khaled Mustafa and son Hamza, 16

    Khaled Mustafa and his family thought they had found safety in New Zealand after fleeing the bloody chaos of Syria only a few months ago.

    But he became a victim of hatred when he was shot while praying with his two sons,

    “They survived atrocities and arrived here in a safe haven only to be killed in the most atrocious way.
    Hamza is missing feared dead and Zaid, 13, is recovering from a six-hour operation on his wounds at Christchurch Hospital.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12213530

  9. martini henry @ #2260 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 5:00 pm

    Rex Douglas, we cannot hope to feed the worlds population on vegetable based foods alone and maintain any areas left for wildlife and by hunting rabbits,goats and deer for food and by eliminating feral pests like foxes and cats the native wildlife can have some hope to survive.

    We can most definitely control animal/wildlife numbers in a sustainable and humane way.

    That doesn’t excuse killing animals for pleasure.

  10. Wow!

    More than 800,000 people have signed a petition to remove Queensland Senator Fraser Anning from Parliament after his remarks following the Christchurch mosque massacre.

    Senator Anning said that while he was opposed to violence of any form, “what it highlights is the growing fear within our community, both in Australia and New Zealand, of the increasing Muslim presence”.

    The response on social media was fast and furious but a Sydney doctor Kate Ahmad and a Melbourne author Harris Sultan decided to do more than tweet.

    Separately and an hour apart, they started petitions requesting Senator Anning be removed from parliament. For both, it was their first petition. Now merged, the petition is by far the largest in Australian online petition history – and even individually Dr Ahmad’s had eclipsed the Sydney Opera House horse racing advertising petition in 2018.

    https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/more-than-800-000-sign-petition-to-have-anning-removed-from-parliament-20190316-p514rl.html

  11. Guns

    What about ammunition?

    The guns have to be loaded to wreak the havoc we see.

    Greens

    From the Murdoch Melbourne publication (by Peter Gleeson, whoever he is?):-

    “they are worried about Labor’s cosy relationship with the ACTU and the zealous pursuit of a so called “living wage”

    “prospect of higher taxes, a drop in house prices, the clampdown on franking credits, our borders being opened up again to people smugglers, a relaxation of national security, SURGING POWER PRICES AS LABOR AND THE GREENS CHASE A 45% RENEWABLE TARGET”

    Then promotes coal and coal powered electricity (of course).

    “Why won’t he” (Ad Man from Mad Men with a megaphone and a media) “pull out of the Paris Agreement, build more coal-fired power stations, guarantee low cost and more reliable electricity and let the voters decide who has the better energy policy?”

    And, of course, “innovative policies that expose Labor’s politics of envy”

    And concludes “The question Conservative voters are asking on the big issues, the contest of ideas, the nation changing policies that can bring the L-NP back into the game is where the bloody hell are you”.

    So there is the L-NP Right Wing, conservative Manifesto to be taken to the election, right there.

    As if ANY government of the day would act against advice in regards National Security.

    The L-NP have always seen the associating of the Greens with Labor as an electoral advantage.

    And it has delivered to them, in spades (noting the same tactic by Crosby in the UK, associating Labour with the Scots taking control of Westminster).

    Hopefully, come May, we have a Labor government including with multiple options to pass legislation in the Upper House – including due to an absence of a Greens presence.

    Those who will determine the election WILL vote for Labor.

    They will NOT vote for the Greens.

    And that is the story.

  12. Astrobleme @ #2259 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 4:02 pm

    It worries me, that there is no real way to combat lies in political debates.

    Does anyone else have any ideas?
    I have tried to combat lies with facts; but it doesn’t work. They get ignored.

    How should I approach it?

    Have you tried logic?

    I hear it’s all the rage these days.

  13. I am with Rex on shooting animals for pleasure. See all those photos we have seen posted of Trump family shooting elephants etc.

    For farming I don’t believe their are swarms of killer bats or other animal that are needed to protect a farmer from attack.

    There may be a couple of animals that you need a shotgun for like a snake coming towards a house with a baby in the yard. I don’t think that means you need any machine guns which is what semi automatics are.

    This is why that court win by the Sandy Hook survivors over Remington the other day is very interesting. Its being done under consumer law about advertising a military product for civilian use

  14. ‘Steve777 says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 5:01 pm

    A Laborite and a Green walk into a bar…’

    And the Green said that if you don’t agree to everything I say I will walk right back out of the bar again and be it your head.

  15. A Laborite and a Green walk into a bar…

    …and they talk, laugh, and become friends. It’s not a joke; it’s what happens when you’re not a Pollbludger poster.

  16. martini henry

    You wrote that

    …the sport of hunting is not just about killing but the enjoyment of being in the outdoors with a chance of providing some free range organic meat

    I’ve heard that from different people over the years. I believe them. I have felt the thrill of reaching out and having the power to kill at distance. It was many years ago and the animal was a pigeon, but I still think about that. Where I am going with my thought is whether you could get the same enjoyment outdoors with a camera, and a trip to an organic butcher.

  17. Millenial

    “Have you tried logic?

    I hear it’s all the rage these days.”

    Well, yes with Boerwar I have – but what I notice is that he doesn’t use logic.

    So I showed him the Uranium Policy:

    Greens Australia – “The cessation of Australian uranium mining and export.”
    SA Greens – “Oppose any new uranium mines in SA and ensure that existing multi-ore mines (eg. Olympic Dam), leave the uranium behind when processing minerals”

    Boerwar’s claim is that the Greens will close Olympic Dam

    So he made a specific claim – that is false. It’s not a matter of opinion
    He bent himself into knots, making up claims that ‘mining’ was whatever you took out of the ground. A completely ludicrous claim.

    But it’s one he keeps making over and over.

    It’s just propaganda

  18. For a while, I lived in an old rented farmhouse on the Bellarine Peninsula. One vivid memory at dawn on the morning that the shooting season opened, was of rows of pigeons and ducks sitting on the hay shed roof. They stayed for several days, until the first enthusiasm of the hunters had waned.

    The yard there was pretty overgrown with long grass. There were also rats in the house, finding easy access as there were gaps below the weatherboards. We discovered how comfortable they were when we found the lapels of OH’s best suits removed entirely. OH was so angry he vowed to “get them” and brought his gun from the back of the wardrobe (would that be a .22?) in order to be ready.

    Several days later, we saw the most ginormous rat sitting bolt upright in the centre of the long grass.

    Hah! OH steathily reached for the gun and rested it in position on the windowsill. The rat didn’t move. It was an easy shot.

    The safety catch clicked. The rat disappeared in a flash.

    I bet that was a very old, very wise rat!

  19. Martini Henry

    Great gun, mate used to have one, think it was the 22 magnum.

    Used to shoot a fair bit, bunnies, for food and get rid of them as vermin,foxes vermin, wallaby as food, great eating. Feral pigs vermin, usually had liver pests so not food or good.

    Clean shots most of the time, more humane than an a abbotoir where the animals knew beforehand what was coming.

    As Lizzie said responsible hunting and most will report those irresponsible or with problems.

    Handed my gun in when no longer used it.

    There are always the irresponsible and the nutcases.

    But do you ban cars because of drunk drug drivers and the odd nutcase?

  20. imacca, I also thankyou for your comments. Firstly there is no jurisdiction in Australia where self defence is a genuine reason for obtaining a firearm licence and as all guns must be locked up with the ammunition locked up separately so by time you could get it ready to defend yourself you are in deep strife. and I cannot comment on semi-auto firearms as I have never had an interest in or owned one. and despite your dislike of the old saw “guns don’t kill, people do” it is true and the only way to prevent future horrific events like Christchurch is to try and identify the people who are likely to offend and keep the guns of them because sadly the other old saying “if you outlaw guns only the outlaws will have guns” has rung true in Melbourne in the last few weeks.

  21. All major parties will unite to censure Queensland Senator Fraser Anning, accusing him of trying to incite fear and division across Australia on religious grounds in the wake of the Christchurch terror attack.

    As Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for the “full force of the law” to apply to Senator Anning, Labor leader Bill Shorten said the reaction of “right-wing extremists” backing the senator highlighted the fringe element supporting him.

    It follows Senator Anning’s response to the Christchurch killings on Friday in which he sought to lay blame for the attack on the victims.

    https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/major-parties-unite-to-censure-anning-for-christchurch-terror-comments-20190317-p514x4.html

  22. @martini henry
    “and as all guns must be locked up with the ammunition locked up separately so by time you could get it ready to defend yourself you are in deep strife”

    I always heard that excuse but really it only takes one person. And that is always the case.

    Melbourne, Sydney, Christchurch

  23. Astrobleme

    We’re in the age of Trump – the greatest confidence trickster in history – who has successfully established the state of mind that accepts ‘alternative facts’.

    It’s truly phenomenal.

  24. But do you ban cars because of drunk drug drivers and the odd nutcase?

    Cars are a necessity for the vast majority of Australians.

    No Australian other than farmers with livestock has a need to own a gun.

  25. Boerwar says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 4:48 pm

    mh
    Uh… the ‘lunatic fringe’ is how big, exactly?
    You are probably aware that country police dread going to a domestic violence call on farms. The reason is that someone, perhaps themselves, can quite easily end up shot. If the police dread it, what is it like for the women and kids?

    -0-

    That was one of the objectives of the gun registry that the Canadian Tories scrapped to applause from the NRA.

    Prior to the full operation of the registry, in 2005, four Royal Canadian Mounted policemen were slaughtered when they went to a farm at Mayerthorpe, Saskatchewan. With acess to data in a gun registry they would have been able to ascertain whether there were firearms at the address. The same principle applies when police show up at a domestic violence scene.

  26. @Confessions

    Josh said that on Twitter that “when they will return in April”..

    By then all will be forgotten.

    Let’s not forget that Coalition Party cancelled the Parliament in the first place

  27. I have long advocated that gun owners should be legislated to have comprehensive insurance policies to protect others from ‘accidental’ injury from said guns.

    The insurance industry would soon sort out those at risk and tailor premiums accordingly.

  28. Let’s try some Greens facts.

    ‘Close all facilities that enable the deployment of nuclear weapons.’

    This Greens policy is a fact. So far, so good.

    I suppose that ‘close’ means to ‘shut down’ or ‘to stop’. That should be clear enough for the Greens to understand. If the facility is an airport no planes would be able to take off or land because the facility has been closed down.

    As for a facility: ‘a place, amenity, or piece of equipment provided for a particular purpose’. So that would be practically anything at all, really, as long is it might enable the deployment of a nuclear weapon. So, let’s just stick to one sort of facility: airfields.

    But could airfields possibly enable deployment of nuclear weapons?

    Let’s help the Greens to understand what their policy means: here we have an airport facility enabling the deployment of nuclear weapons:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=riEmAvlrynk

    So, if we take the Greens at their policy word (which is not always a good idea), the Greens want to close down all the airports in Australia that are big enough for planes carrying (aka deploying) nuclear weapons.

  29. Rex

    “We’re in the age of Trump – the greatest confidence trickster in history – who has successfully established the state of mind that accepts ‘alternative facts’.

    It’s truly phenomenal.”

    It’s terrifying… Even otherwise sensible people will act as appeasers to nonsense if it supports their own ideology – they will turn a blind eye.

  30. Ok, lighter note. Three MPs walked into a bar, a Liberal, a Labor and a Green. You’d have thought the Green would have ducked.

  31. “So, if we take the Greens at their policy word (which is not always a good idea), the Greens want to close down all the airports in Australia that are big enough for planes carrying (aka deploying) nuclear weapons.”

    Only if you are a complete moron.

  32. Boris, yes the martini henry is a great rifle and one of mine is in the original 577/450 black powder cartridge. and as befits an old warhorse it still goes to the range for an occasional shoot.

  33. “Ok, lighter note. Three MPs walked into a bar, a Liberal, a Labor and a Green. You’d have thought the Green would have ducked.”

    the Liberal would have just lowered the bar further.

  34. Seeing some wanting to ban all guns prompts me to post a news flash from Planet Wacko …………Missouri House Bill 1108
    .
    .

    HOUSE BILL NO. 1108
    100TH GENERAL ASSEMBLY
    INTRODUCED BY REPRESENTATIVE MCDANIEL.
    2290H.01IDANA RADEMAN MILLER, Chief Clerk……….41.1021. 1. This section shall be known and may be cited as the “McDaniel Militia Act……………Every resident of this state shall own at least one AR-15. Any person who qualifies as a resident on August 28, 2019, and who does not own an AR-15 shall have one year to purchase an AR-15,………………….Any resident qualifies as a resident after August 28, 2019, and does not own an AR-15 shall purchase an AR-15 no later than one year after qualifying as a resident………………
    https://www.scribd.com/document/401994648/House-Bill-1108#from_embed

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