BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. The truly evil nexus is between domestic violence and guns.
    The implied threat is used as a mechanism of terror.
    Perhaps the NRA and its Australian clones could have a look at that issue.

  2. It is interesting that in the Ballina electoral district, apart from the Nats there are no far right parties (Liberal Democrats, SFF, Christian Democrats etc). The six candidates represent the following parties:
    – Greens,
    – Animal Justice,
    – Labor,
    – Keep Sydney Open,
    – Sustainable Australia,
    – Nationals

  3. It will be interesting how the NZ people respond to gun laws being tightened. Will there be a buy-back scene as was run and recently was running here (NSW I believe, correct me please) , hunting, especially feral animals is a big thing there and I can imagine blow-back from that sector. As we have seen here recently, gun owners are a bit like dog owners ( mine won’t bite anyone!) in that some think there guns ( the way they store them, etc) will render them safe without considering the practicalities how humans can just do things that you wouldn’t expect so that guns get left lying round, we’re loaded when they weren’t supposed to be, or the gun safe keys get lost.
    I believe thee a reports of panic buying of guns in NZ even as I type.

  4. “Like some other Greens who are forced to explain the inexplicable you become abusive.”

    It’s only inexplicable to you Boerwar…
    Because, for some weird reason, the only way you can discuss the Greens Uranium position is to make up misinformation.

    I have seen several people here post actual arguments against the Greens position…

    And this method of making up shit about Greens policies is a weird habit you have.
    You also did it for their Defence policy (though recently you at least use the same terminology as the Greens).

  5. What’s with the full-page ads from the Shooting Industry Foundation Australia asking:

    “Who will fix the firearms registry?

    In 1996 the National Firearms Agreement endorsed Nationwide Registration.

    “Jurisdictions agree to the nationwide registration of all firearms. Jurisdictions will record sufficient information to be able to uniquely identify each firearm, including details prescribed by the national information-sharing hub. Jurisdictions agree to store registrations on a system which is able to share information with the national information-sharing hub.”

    In 2019 no Australian State or Territory is positioned to share information via a national information-sharing hub.

    SIFA supports Australian National Firearms Management Systems.

    SIFA Shooting Industry Foundation Australia.

    -0-

    This is very puzzling because although it only talks about registration, it is something that the National Rifle Association would regard as treasonous heresy from gun lovers.

    Does it mean that in the wake of Port Arthur that the States did not have the courage to follow up the Howard initiative with a registration system. Am I missing something here. I’ve never ever seen the gun lobby arguing for regulation.

    It reminds us of what happened in Canada in the 1990’s when the Chretien Liberal government brought in a “long gun registry,” which required registration of both restricted and non-restricted firearms. The NRA went ballistic and came across the border and campaigned with the Tory Opposition to scrap it.

    Like all I.T based programs at the time there were considerable cost over-runs and by the time it was up and running more than $500 million had been spent.

    Notwithstanding all of this spending, and universal condemnation from Canada’s law enforcement community, the Conservatives were determined to eliminate it and did so when they were returned to power. The legislation scrapping the registry also vindictively required the provinces to destroy all of the data they had collected, a provision unfortunately that was found to be constitutional by the Supreme Court of Canada The province of Quebec had wanted to use the data to set up their own registry.

  6. guytaur @ #2193 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 3:58 pm

    Cat

    I am only saying the Greens and Labor work well together in the ACT. I have not said the voting systems are the same.

    I am not falling for that red herring. I am talking about the fact in government the Greens and Labor are working well together.

    That fact destroys the myth that Labor can’t work with the Greens.
    You may not like it but its fact.

    I could care less, guytaur. It’s you who seems to care so much about it.

    I want a majority NSW State Labor government. That’s what I care about. That’s what I am working towards.

  7. Cat

    I wish you good luck. I am talking about what happens after if as the polls indicate today it’s a hung parliament.

    This is a psephology and political blog not a Labor campaign website.

    I was trying to make the point of what the impact is likely going to be on the Federal campaign.

  8. Yes Boerwar. I was just looking up for voting purposes and was surprised as it has been traditionally Nationals here but now Green.

    There is hardly any street corflutes either. Probably the Labor Party’s Asren Pugh is the most common. Maybe it’s all in Ballina Town.

  9. Astro

    Cat doesn’t like my pointing out that the ACT government proves Labor has successfully worked with the Greens in government for years.

    Edit: I was pointing out that would mean more civil campaigning from both Labor and the Greens if Daley has to cooperate with the Greens.

  10. It would be great if our three electorates went left: Lismore, Tweed and Ballina.

    We could, eventually, establish the Peoples Rupublic of the Northern Rivers. 🙂

  11. Oh Astrobleme, so sad, so sad.
    Tell me this.
    Why do the Australian Greens and the South Australian Greens have conflicting policy statements on uranium mining?
    Why don’t the Greens acknowledge that two lines in their GMO policy will destroy over a dozen inland towns, kill off thousands of jobs, and shut down an industry that earns $2-3 billion in exports?
    Why don’t the Greens clarify what the mean by a ‘Light Mobile Force?’ After all, existing members of the ADF will have to make a choice about whether they want to add ‘desire for suicide’ to their list of reasons for being in the military.
    Why do the Greens arse about with the definition of mining? The sophistry is getting ever more silly.
    Why don’t the Greens clarify what they mean by ‘closing down facilities that enable the deployment of nuclear weapons’?
    You will find in each case that there is confusion about the problem being addressed, policy confusion, a lack of connection between the problem and the policy response, confusion about the extent of the consequences of the policies, and/or a rat cunning unwillingness to lose votes for what they really want to do.
    On the other hand, don’t tell me your answers and do please stop with your personal abuse. Coming from the party of international peace studies and the like, it reflects cognitive dissonance.
    Any good policy wonk can see that the above Greens policies, taken as a set, are poor policies per se.

  12. Rex douglas, the sport of hunting is not just about killing but the enjoyment of being in the outdoors with a chance of providing some free range organic meat. and it is a lot more honest about where your food comes from than a polystyrene tray from colesworth.

  13. swamprat
    I squinted yesterday, travelling as I did extensively in the electorate of Mr Barilaro.
    And by squinting very hard I could just detect the word ‘Nationals’ on the top left hand corner of the corflutes.
    I have heard of shy Nationals voters.
    But shy Nationals MPs is a whole new ball game.

  14. martini henry @ #2223 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 4:22 pm

    Rex douglas, the sport of hunting is not just about killing but the enjoyment of being in the outdoors with a chance of providing some free range organic meat. and it is a lot more honest about where your food comes from than a polystyrene tray from colesworth.

    oh, how wonderful, sounds like bliss

  15. I wonder what percentage of shots fired during hunting:

    1. miss everything
    2. hit something else by accident
    3. wound something, leaving it to stagger away, fly away or crawl into a hole there to die a slow, miserable and pain-wracked death
    4. kill instantly.

    I am sure that Shooters, Killers, Wounders, and Missers Party would be able to provide a breakdown.

  16. It has not worked in the ACT.
    Our finances are in a large and growing mess as a result of Greens vanity projects like the Red Devils.

  17. Boerwar

    It is great that a lot of rural voters are finally realising the Nats are no help to their current predicament nor their future.

  18. bequiledagain, the firearms registries in most if not all states are a complete cluster#$@% many shooters have noticed that when the police show up for a safe inspection the details are often wrong or out of date. as a tool to keep a track on who has what it is as useful as a liberal pollie at a policy meeting.

  19. Milleniall

    Not true. Labor in Tasmania worked well for years with a Greens minister too. He is now Senator McKim.

    Labor and Greens own the loss not the Greens alone. They managed to work together for years.

    Even with the Gillard minority government the Greens worked with Labor. The climate legislation was passed.
    It was not the Greens fault that Labor was self destructing at the time which is what all the timing arguments come down to.

    If only the Greens had agreed with Labor earlier come the cries of those scapegoating the Greens for the Labor loss of the Gillard era.

  20. swamprat
    Yep. My rural friends, family and farming connections straw polls have flipped completely over the course of about two decades.

    The main driver is the consequences of Global Warming. Farmers have twigged that they might not be able to survive it.

    Another driver is a growing awareness that the Nat’s coalmania is directly against the interests of farmers.

    Finally, the Nats have favoured corporate and a few very wealth industrial growers at the expense of mum and dad farmers, helping to destroy the latter.

    Dudded, struggling to survive, and bitter.

    They are not waiting with baseball bats.

    They are going to run over the Nats with combine harvesters.

  21. boerwar, in answer to 1 and 2 no idea, 3 to many, 4 not enough and to number 5 in my case how many shots not taken due to no backstop, highlined on a ridge or not confident of the shot heaps. but once again you cannot judge all hunters by the idiot fringe.

  22. martini henry @ #2217 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 3:22 pm

    it is a lot more honest about where your food comes from than a polystyrene tray from colesworth.

    Perhaps, though it’s rather large stretch to call it a ‘sport’.

    Like maybe if you were using melee weapons or a bow and arrow or traps and snares then it would be fair enough to count as a sport. But just waiting around for some hapless critter to wander into your line of range and then taking some shots at it with a rifle? Yeah, not very sporting if you ask me.

  23. guytaur @ #2227 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 3:30 pm

    Milleniall

    Not true. Labor in Tasmania worked well for years with a Greens minister too. He is now Senator McKim.

    Labor and Greens own the loss not the Greens alone. They managed to work together for years.

    *cough* *cough* Forest Peace Deal *unconvincing cough*

    Even with the Gillard minority government, the Greens worked with Labor. The climate legislation was passed.
    It was not the Greens fault that Labor was self-destructing at the time which is what all the timing arguments come down to.

    If only the Greens had agreed with Labor earlier come the cries of those scapegoating the Greens for the Labor loss of the Gillard era.

    Well considering that most of the Gillard Government’s policies are now ripped to shreds and everyone involved generally hates each other now, I’d call the relationship cordial at best.

  24. A.R, the term sport used for hunting has been around since the human race took up farming to feed themselves and it not only sitting and waiting for any old animal to show up mostly you are searching out specific game and you have to move around to find them.

  25. C@t:

    Really? When I was there over xmas the place was bustling, even on xmas day there were places open and people milling around.

  26. martini henry

    First, I am a pacifist and feel that the whole guns/war/killing people is abhorrent. But there is definitely a place in Australia for shooting vermin and injured stock.

    You seem to me to be both a responsible shooter and a collector/restorer enthusiast, so as long as you keep your guns safely away from nutjobs, and especially if you eat the meat you slaughter, I agree that you have the right to be a licensed gun owner.

  27. If Labor can get an absolute majority in the NSW election next Saturday, great. If they don’t get an absolute majority but can get the support of crossbenchers to form a Government, that’s also great, but less great than an absolute majority.

    #WeatheronPB. It’s been pretty soggy in Sydney this week, 73 mm between 9:00AM and 2:00PM today and 161 mm all up in the last 6 days.

  28. mh
    Uh… the ‘lunatic fringe’ is how big, exactly?

    Having grown up in the country, having hunted extensively, having numerous relations in the country I know that many, many shots miss altogether. Many, many shots wound. Sometimes the wound is bad enough to enable the shooter to walk up and put in a kill shot. Sometimes not. Sometimes the injured bird or animal gets away to die a slow, miserable death.
    I am around 99% certain that you will not change my mind and that I will not change your mind on these issues.
    What I would really, really like to see is this.

    You are probably aware that country police dread going to a domestic violence call on farms. The reason is that someone, perhaps themselves, can quite easily end up shot. If the police dread it, what is it like for the women and kids?

    Here is my suggestion: That, whatever other gun policy changes the SFF seeks to enact, the SFF Party demands that the gun regs be changed to automatically ban gun ownership for life in any and all cases of actual or threatened violence in domestic circumstances.

    That policy alone would save quite a few lives out in the country. It would also save quite a bit of people living in domestic terror.

  29. Millenial

    Yeah yeah. Labor has said that before about the Greens. Then they put McKim in as a cabinet minister.

    Labor has to stop blaming the Greens for what the LNP does. Especially with comments made with the benefit of hindsight.

    I don’t blame Rudd for negotiating with the Liberals because maths and no foresight of Abbott spilling Turnbull as leader. For the same reason I don’t blame the Greens for not seeing Labor was going to dump their Prime Minister again.

    The Greens have done some stupid things but I don’t think they can match the major parties on that particular stupidity.

  30. So does it look like the nutter moved to NZ because he could get his hands on more powerful weapons there instead of Australia?

  31. martini henry @ #2241 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 4:45 pm

    A.R, the term sport used for hunting has been around since the human race took up farming to feed themselves and it not only sitting and waiting for any old animal to show up mostly you are searching out specific game and you have to move around to find them.

    Where there’s a need for food I understand the requirement to kill an animal. I’m sure though that most meat processing workers aren’t there for pleasure. As an aside, we can survive and thrive without meat anyway.

    I will never understand those who hunt for pleasure and gratification. It’s barbaric.

  32. lizzie, thankyou for your comments the point I have been trying to make( maybe badly) is not to judge all shooters and firearm owner with that dirtbag in Christchurch. and by the way I do enjoy your story swapping with boerwar on the different birds you have seen in your areas.

  33. guytaur @ #2243 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 3:49 pm

    Millenial

    Yeah yeah. Labor has said that before about the Greens. Then they put McKim in as a cabinet minister.

    Labor has to stop blaming the Greens for what the LNP does. Especially with comments made with the benefit of hindsight.

    I don’t blame Rudd for negotiating with the Liberals because maths and no foresight of Abbott spilling Turnbull as leader. For the same reason I don’t blame the Greens for not seeing Labor was going to dump their Prime Minister again.

    The Greens have done some stupid things but I don’t think they can match the major parties on that particular stupidity.

    To be clear, I’m not blaming the Greens for taking the positions they did.

    I’m just observing that when you put a Greens politician and a Labor politician into Government, generally speaking, they really don’t like working with each other.

    They’re like Englishmen and Scots.

    Or Welshmen and Scots.

    Or Japanese and Scots.

    Or Scots and other Scots.

  34. martini henry @ #2238 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 3:45 pm

    A.R, the term sport used for hunting has been around since the human race took up farming to feed themselves

    You mean, well before anything like modern firearms would have been available.

    and it not only sitting and waiting for any old animal to show up mostly you are searching out specific game and you have to move around to find them.

    So it’s like…hiking. Is hiking a sport?

  35. I understood Tarrant left Australia in 2011, aged approximately 21 years. I haven’t heard that he was radicalised into right wing extremism at that stage.

    Is there anything to indicate at what point, and under what influences, he turned into the mongrel bastard he now is?

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