BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. There is no doubt at all that, if the NSW provides the Greens with stopping power, they will abuse it to stop stuff. They always have.
    They have stopped stuff for 30 years. They are stopping stuff now. Their Plan is to stop stuff for the next years: not so much dog shit as a method for constipating governance.

    People who want an effective government should vote for Labor.

  2. “NSW Greens could always just agree to support a Labor minority NSW Govt on confidence and supply but just abstain on any legislative vote that they don’t agree with.”

    Bingo. Further, if they drop the anti labor stunts and “demands” they’ll find that they also have a seat at the table to negotiate outcomes for the common good. They can also scrutinise legislation and seek to improve it. Which is part of the job discription. Good. Good.

  3. g
    Our finances are being well and truly gutted by the Great Greens BOP Blackmail Folly: the Red Devils.
    Our situation is an object lesson of why Labor should have nothing to do with the Greens.

  4. bw

    You have shown your true colours. You are on the opposite side to Peter Garret and Paul Keating on nuclear. The Canberra Commission was up there with the Refern speech in terms of importance. Its a pity that the that Howard in his pro war era ended that.

  5. As we can see today. With Labor Right its my way or the highway unless they are forced otherwise

    BW

    Oh and who is ACT Treasurer and who has the majority in cabinet?

    Yeah its all the Greens fault of course it is.

  6. Negotiating with the Greens holding a BOP:

    Step 1. The Greens announce that they will only support anything that is 100% in line with their policies. Anything less and they will oppose it. This has to be repeated at the tops of their political voices over a period of months.

    Step 2. The Greens criticize all Labor policy proposals. Hopeless. No good. Evil. This to be done at the top of their voices.

    Step 3. Innumerable delays while the Greens internal processes try to resolve what they actually meant when they adopted their policies. As we have seen on Bludger, most of them are clueless to the consequences of their doctrinaire lunacies. Expect numerous vacillations about what they will or not agree to, plenty of backtracking on their prior agreements, additional demands dropped in every now and then, and so on and so forth. Think truly bad faith negotiating tactics.

    Step 3. Compromise finally agreed.

    Step 4. Greens claim total victory of the proletariat.

    Step 5. Greens criticize Labor for not being perfect.

  8. guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 2:44 pm

    As we can see today. With Labor Right its my way or the highway unless they are forced otherwise.

    Irony muchly! 😆

  9. Malcolm Farr
    ‏@farrm51
    20h20 hours ago

    We have been paying $200k a year for this senator, whose views attract people prone to giving Nazi salutes. What a bargain.

  10. guytaur
    I know you are a closet Greens but still…
    I did not mention anything to do with nuclear power.
    You should stick to clarifying Greens policies for the rest of us.
    It is like a voyage into the unknowne, a journey of discovery.

  11. Rex has said something sensible.

    I would hope any labor leader with the most seats but not a majority would ask the minor parties to guarantee confidence and supply, except in proven cases of dishonesty or corruption by the government.

    Nothing more, nothing less.

    Then the crossbench can please themselves how they vote on legislation. They may be able to negotiate outcomes that better match their ambitions or they may not.

    If they want to bring down the government by always asking for more, well it can be on their heads.

  12. The Greens are not going to get any succour from an ALP government, even a minority one. They just cannot be trusted. Actions speak louder than words.

    It did not have to be so, but the recent leaders of The Greens have lead it down a very unsavoury path. Too much quilt-sharing with the Libs and taking their eye of the environmental ball has diminished their influence. The Greens have made a very messy bed infested with the fleas left from some unfortunate partnerships, and now must lie in the wrinkled sheets.

  14. lizzie @ #2105 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 11:48 am

    Malcolm Farr
    ‏@farrm51
    20h20 hours ago

    We have been paying $200k a year for this senator, whose views attract people prone to giving Nazi salutes. What a bargain.

    As mentioned on Insiders, I hope the parliament inquire as to whether he is charging us for his frequent trips to Victoria.

  15. BW

    Nuclear mining is inextricably linked with nuclear weapons. Like it or not. Its just fact.
    Also we know nuclear power is not the answer on climate. Just like coal isn’t.

    Much as is tried to make out otherwise by the pro nuclear lobby.

  16. Boerwar @ #2105 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 2:17 pm

    Negotiating with the Greens holding a BOP:

    Step 1. The Greens announce that they will only support anything that is 100% in line with their policies. Anything less and they will oppose it. This has to be repeated at the tops of their political voices over a period of months.

    Step 2. The Greens criticize all Labor policy proposals. Hopeless. No good. Evil. This to be done at the top of their voices.

    Step 3. Innumerable delays while the Greens internal processes try to resolve what they actually meant when they adopted their policies. As we have seen on Bludger, most of them are clueless to the consequences of their doctrinaire lunacies. Expect numerous vacillations about what they will or not agree to, plenty of backtracking on their prior agreements, additional demands dropped in every now and then, and so on and so forth. Think truly bad faith negotiating tactics.

    Step 3. Compromise finally agreed.

    Step 4. Greens claim total victory of the proletariat.

    Step 5. Greens criticize Labor for not being perfect.

    You forgot the Fork in the Road after step 3. Vote with the Coalition in exchange for a few soy cupcakes.

  19. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2019/mar/17/new-zealand-attack-christchurch-in-mourning-after-mosque-massacre-latest-updates?page=with:block-5c8da2c1e4b0cf92e5a58a50#block-5c8da2c1e4b0cf92e5a58a50

    A 23-year old Queensland man has been arrested after he allegedly drove his car into the gates of a mosque and shouted offensive words at worshippers inside on Saturday. Queensland police allege the man drove his car into the gates of the Baitul Masroor Mosque at Stockleigh, near Brisbane. Earlier that day, he had been pulled over by police and failed a roadside drug test. He was issued with a 24-hour suspension of his license, returned to his car, and then drove to the mosque where he damaged the front gates and shouted at the people inside, police allege.

    The man, who was from Browns Plains, was charged with wilful damage, committing a public nuisance and driving a motor vehicle while suspended. He has been issued with a notice to appear in court.

    Some thoughts.
    * I wonder where he got the idea? (/sarcasm)
    * This incident is a few kms from my father’s farm. Nowhere is safe.
    * The man was released. I expect there are Muslims in Browns Plains living with the fear.

  22. I was then physically removed by Anning's supporters and accused of being a "filthy f******* journalist" by Neil Erikson. Several Anning supporters followed me out and held phones to my face demanding I tell them my name @theage— Paul Sakkal (@paulsakkal) 16 March 2019

  23. Puffy

    Nah. Thats debatable. What not debatable is the Greens have worked with Conservative Independents and Labor on climate policy and the Medivac Bill to name two.

    This whole the Greens are evil and to blame for the LNP actions should stop. Its only letting the LNP off the hook for their actions.

  24. Joe Hildebrand on Nats insanity.

    https://amp-news-com-au.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/amp.news.com.au/national/politics/scomo-does-the-simpsons-how-the-coalition-became-the-screamapillar/news-story/7b5f435921ea27fe4efc2f547da7ee1d?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.news.com.au%2Fnational%2Fpolitics%2Fscomo-does-the-simpsons-how-the-coalition-became-the-screamapillar%2Fnews-story%2F7b5f435921ea27fe4efc2f547da7ee1d

  25. By journo from The Age.

    https://twitter.com/paulsakkal

    I was then physically removed by Anning's supporters and accused of being a "filthy f******* journalist" by Neil Erikson. Several Anning supporters followed me out and held phones to my face demanding I tell them my name @theage— Paul Sakkal (@paulsakkal) 16 March 2019

    PuffyTMD @ #2121 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 2:23 pm

    I was then physically removed by Anning's supporters and accused of being a "filthy f******* journalist" by Neil Erikson. Several Anning supporters followed me out and held phones to my face demanding I tell them my name @theage— Paul Sakkal (@paulsakkal) 16 March 2019

  27. Barney in Cà Mau says:

    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 2:48 pm
    guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 2:44 pm

    As we can see today. With Labor Right its my way or the highway unless they are forced otherwise.

    Irony muchly!

    Irony or a sign of a shared mentality between the two ? Familial fights are often the most vicious, just look at the two sides ‘debating’ on PB 😆

  28. Another try.

    After the 17-year-old boy who egged Anning was violently gang-tackled to the ground by 5-6 men including Neil Erikson, @10NewsFirstMelb reporter and I asked the men to stop digging their knees and elbows into the boy and let him up after he was clearly restrained @theage— Paul Sakkal (@paulsakkal) 16 March 2019

  30. What Fraser Anning did was shameful and a disgrace to our Parliament, but let’s not think for a moment that this is about just one person. Fraser Anning was a member of our Parliament because One Nation put him there. One Nation’s racism and bigotry contributed to this.— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) March 17, 2019

    Politicians like Peter Dutton, who said settling Lebanese Muslims was a mistake, contributed to this. When media outlets like SKY News ran footage of a killer whose intent was to magnify a message of hate, they contributed to this.— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) March 17, 2019

    We send our thoughts and prayers to the Muslim community and we stand with them, but thoughts and prayers are not enough. We need to call this behaviour out wherever it occurs. We must come together as a community and stand as one human family against hate, fear and division— Richard Di Natale (@RichardDiNatale) March 17, 2019

  31. Poroti

    I am not saying the Greens are perfect. In fact I am trying to get across the point that the Greens do compromise they do work with Labor as the ACT proves.

    Its prejudice to deny this reality. I did not even mention New Zealand because it sensitive right now and all the lines of but thats a different country the Greens are different over there.

    Using the obvious to deflect from another obvious point. That is its in the interest of the Greens when in balance of power to have success with legislation. That means compromise.

  33. Nuclear mining is inextricably linked with nuclear weapons.

    Doesnt have to be.

    Also we know nuclear power is not the answer on climate.

    Depends. In can be. If you factor in the increasing use of the grid by transport then perhaps we should be getting ready for that by being nuclear ready.

  34. Neil Erikson.. and I asked the men to stop digging their knees and elbows into the boy and let him up after he was clearly restrained

    A rugby league ref would have sent them all off and the review committee given them several game suspension. It was obvious even from the dodgy footage they were undertaking far more than the necessary force required to restrain.

  36. I know I’ll regret posing this question, but:

    – Those to the left of Australian Labor, who have formed their own party but practically always recommend preferencing Labor above the Liberals on their HTV cards, are a “Trojan horse” secretly aiming to keep Labor out of government.

    Whereas…

    – Those to the right of British Labour, who have formed their own grouping which will split the anti-Tory vote under the UK’s first-past-the-post system and is therefore guaranteed to keep Labour out of government, are brave heroes who should be applauded for their actions.

    Anyone care to explain how it’s possible to take these two positions simultaneously without being a gargantuan hypocrite whose preachings of “loyalty” nobody in their right mind could possibly take seriously?

  38. @Rex

    And yet greens blamed labor for the last year on every single topic

    Stop using the topic for the benefit as the holy greens.

  39. guytaur

    Did not think you were saying that , no party is perfect. I blame NSW and whatever they put in the Greens,Libs,Lab,Nat’s drinking water over there. Fluoride ? 😀

  41. martini henry @ #2074 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 2:17 pm

    rhwombat, yes I do realise that most gun deaths are from self harm and even after the lying rodents failed gun laws the overall suicide rate never diminished only the tools used changed. And I also note you could not dispute the numbers I quoted.

    martini henry.

    Your analogy is disgustingly offensive.

    I’m an Infectious Diseases and Palliative Care Physician. I look after quite a few of the medical misadventures that eventually cause death: none are deliberate, all are tragedies. My brother is a Forensic Pathologist (who did most of the Port Arthur & Srebrenica massacre postmortems, and has been called in to Christchurch) is an authority on gun-related morbidity and mortality in Australia. We have been speaking about this quite a bit since Friday, and we are not alone in our professions or communities. The “statistics” you are basing your offensive sophistry on were real people and their deaths have consequences – which I and other Health Care workers deal with on a daily basis.

    What are you defending?

  42. Michael Daley won’t form any sort of supportive arrangement with The Greens. I think he would prefer to keep watching them tear themselves apart and then take their seats back at the next election.

  45. I had what would have amounted to 4 shots of coffee this morning via a delish ristretto (or whatever it is called).

    Still shaking!

    A beer will settle it.

    Later peeps

  46. Poroti

    I think its failure in NSW to have proper processes for democratic participation in the parties. Thats all parties.

    I think its partly due to fear of the crooks. No one wants a repeat of an Obeid in any government.
    Then you add in the usual political divides and it gets very very messy.
    All built on centuries of political structures built up from the days of colonisation with reform attempted but somehow not removing that distinctive NSW approach to politics.

  47. Clive’s corflutes have sprung up like mushrooms overnight in our part of Canberra. The ones I’ve seen are tied to street light poles.

    I’m hoping they contravene regulations and are removed. Have these corflutes invaded other places?

  48. Peter van OnselenVerified account@vanOnselenP
    14m14 minutes ago
    Whoever put together the parliamentary sitting calendar has a sense of humour….politicians return on April Fools Day.

    And a Nats leadership challenge!

  49. Cat

    Daley will choose like all Labor governments before him to be in government not out of it no matter what anyone says now. With fixed terms its a long time in the wilderness.

  50. Simon² Katich® @ #1997 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 12:21 pm

    as the PM his job is to rub shoulders with the Muslim community – especially at a time like this.

    Only if they invite him, first. No community is under any obligation to rub shoulders with any politician, regardless of stature or current events.

    if he does it respectfully they should welcome him.

    Nah. Unless he was invited. Then sure. Otherwise he is rightly condemned for going where he isn’t wanted.

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