BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. guytaur says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 12:50 pm

    SBSNews tweets

    Prime Minister Scott Morrison says there should be legal consequences for independent senator Fraser Anning blaming the Islamic community for a mosque shooting. http://bit.ly/2CnVPYN

    Morrison wants the “full force of the law” applied to Anning. He obviously is trying to deflect attention away from his own culpability in this matter and Anning makes a convenient scapegoat.

    Apart from the morality of Morrison using Anning to try and save himself from scrutiny, there is the question of interference in the judicial process.

  2. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 1:58 pm
    “Its very very interesting how the Labor right is scared of the Greens. Too much listening to Newscorp in my opinion.”
    You are the one quoting and taking note of newscorpse.
    Labor right isn’t scared of the greens. Some in labor left might be, but the right have worked them out: as soon as they start “demanding” stuff – ignore them. It’s as simple as that. We no more fear the greens than dog shit, we just take care not to step on it.
    ___________________________________
    How many ALP right wingers have served time now, must be hundreds. lol. One of the best is Neville Hilton:

    Hilton, the former president of the ALP’s Albion Park branch in NSW, quit the party last year following allegations that two girls, aged 13 and 14, had worked at his Southern Belles Escort Agency in Port Kembla.
    A NSW District Court jury found Hilton guilty of 11 charges of obtaining benefit from child prostitution and eight of permitting premises to be used for those purposes. The jury took two hours to reach a verdict.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/former-alp-man-guilty-20040902-gdykcj.html

  3. guytaur @ #2035 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 1:44 pm

    The Gillard government was a formal coalition of Greens and Independents.

    No it wasn’t. This from Wikipedia …

    The Labor-Greens agreement resulted in the Greens offering to “ensure supply and oppose any motions of no-confidence in the government from other parties or MPs” in return for a range of policy undertakings from Gillard and an agreement to allow Greens leader Bob Brown and lower house MP Adam Bandt to meet with the Prime Minister each week while Parliament is sitting to work on the legislative agenda.

    There was no coalition. There were no Green or Independent members of the government.

  4. Will Kostakis@willkostakis
    19h19 hours ago

    So @Qantas, I was on QF422 today. The in-flight entertainment included @SkyNewsAust playing a clip from what appeared to be the Christchurch terrorist’s cam footage … Perhaps a news source with a more discerning and responsible editorial team should provide the entertainment?

  5. I am going to regret that post, arent I.

    Far far more than Morrison regrets all the times he’s smeared Muslims and dog whistled for votes.

    The targets of his hate mongering aren’t idiots. They’ll politely let him try and use them again for his political needs because they are better human beings than he will ever be. But they’ll swallow down a bit of vomit as they do.

  6. Speaking of dog shit, along comes naff naff.

    Disgusting effort mate. Regrettably, par the course from you recently. Do better.

  7. Former GG William Deane fulfilled that role perfectly IIRC.

    He did indeed – it is no coincidence that he did this alongside Howard as a Keating appointment.

  8. martini henry @ #2022 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 1:36 pm

    rhwombat, the most recent stats that was able to find state that in 2002 7,820 Australians died due to medical misadventure compared to deaths from firearms in 2018 of 238. I think that it is you that need to hand your toys in.

    Pathetic.

    You do realise that most of those firearms deaths in Australia are men shooting themselves, don’t you?

    Crawl back under your rock.

  9. “Labor could not trust Labor. Yet here you are blaming the Greens. I think its called deflection.”

    FFS. You have a reading difficulty don’t you?

    I was literally blaming labor for turning to the Greens to paper up the other political problems of its own making: from the frying pan into the fire.

  10. guytaur

    ‘Its very very interesting how the Labor right is scared of the Greens. ‘

    Dan Andrews is from the Socialist Left faction.

  11. Andrew Earlwood

    No you are blaming the Greens for the conflict inside the Labor party.
    You expect trust when Labor could not trust Labor. You wonder why people are wary afterwards.

    This all while ignoring actual evidence that the Greens work with Labor well and have for years.

    This shows its your prejudice against the Greens not reality. If it what you try and make out was reality there would be no Labor Minority government in the ACT. Rattenbury is a minister.

  12. “Andrew Earlwood, been in to visit Milton Orkopolous lately?”

    He was a labor leftie btw.

    Why are you such an arsewipe recently? To its eternal credit the Gillard Labor Government set up the royal commission – probably the single most important event in the campaign against child abuse in this country, perhaps internationally. She was backed to the hilt by the nsw right in caucus.

    On a personal note, I’ve spent the last 6 years mainly sending sex offenders to prison.

    Stop posting. Reflect. Do better, mate.

  13. player one – I thin you are right. Morrison has no self-reflection – he’s just a dodgy salesman who is always looking ahead for the next mug punter.

    I hope to see him questioned about his 2011 urging to use anti-muslim sentiment to win votes. I am sure Turnbull will be willing to tip further buckets of excrement re: morrison’s and dutton’s racism and bigotry.

  14. rhwombat, yes I do realise that most gun deaths are from self harm and even after the lying rodents failed gun laws the overall suicide rate never diminished only the tools used changed. And I also note you could not dispute the numbers I quoted.

  15. nath @ #2056 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 2:03 pm

    Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 1:58 pm
    “Its very very interesting how the Labor right is scared of the Greens. Too much listening to Newscorp in my opinion.”
    You are the one quoting and taking note of newscorpse.
    Labor right isn’t scared of the greens. Some in labor left might be, but the right have worked them out: as soon as they start “demanding” stuff – ignore them. It’s as simple as that. We no more fear the greens than dog shit, we just take care not to step on it.
    ___________________________________
    How many ALP right wingers have served time now, must be hundreds. lol. One of the best is Neville Hilton:

    Hilton, the former president of the ALP’s Albion Park branch in NSW, quit the party last year following allegations that two girls, aged 13 and 14, had worked at his Southern Belles Escort Agency in Port Kembla.
    A NSW District Court jury found Hilton guilty of 11 charges of obtaining benefit from child prostitution and eight of permitting premises to be used for those purposes. The jury took two hours to reach a verdict.

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/former-alp-man-guilty-20040902-gdykcj.html

    Wow. That’s awful. Thankful that at least one ‘dark element’ has been removed from NSW Labor ranks.

  16. Boerwar @ #2036 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 1:48 pm

    There is an obvious first steps to managing the armed murderous men (and women) problem.

    1. Lifetime gun ban on anyone who is convicted of an act involving violence or a threat of violence.
    2. Lifetime gun ban on anyone who has uttered a threat of violence: on a sports ground, on a road, in the home, or at any public gathering.
    3. Lifetime gun ban on anyone belonging to a group that promotes violence.
    4. Lifetime gun ban on anyone using any means of communication to utter a threat of violence.
    5. Lifetime gun ban on anyone who utters any sort of threat in the context of domestic violence, separation or divorce.
    6. Lifetime gun ban on anyone who breaks any gun legislation in any way whatsoever.
    7. Lifetime gun ban on anyone who breaks any criminal law.
    8. Lifetime gun ban on anyone who is under an apprehended violence order.

    All these lifetime bans should be automatic with no review period, no probation period, and no appeal.

    Life’s too precious to leave deadly weapons in the hands of people who believe that violence and/or the threat of violence is acceptable and/or who cannot control their violent and/or illegal urges.

    Gun ownership is a privilege that society extends to individuals.
    Gun ownership is not human right.

    Yeah, however (a) it’s not clear that the Christchurch shooter did any of the above prior to this act, so in this case might not make any difference, and (b) gun bans are of limited use if not enforced – and this has been a key issue even here in Australia where there are different laws in different states and no national registries for guns, police, or court orders, so even if someone is not allowed to have a gun for one reason or another there are loopholes to get one.

    First steps: It was reported the morning prior to the shooting that the AFP union has called for a national gun registry and increased regulation of the purchase of ammunition – and particularly independence from politicians who have been hampering their ability to do their job properly.

    “It is a national disgrace that with 22 years since Port Arthur, we still don’t have a national firearms registry, that people can buy ammunition for weapons that they do not own, and ammunition can be imported for weapons that are illegal,” Smith said. “The woeful legislation is making it very easy for dangerous weapons to fall into the hands of criminals. It must be stopped.”

    “The Australian federal police is losing its independence and integrity and must be separated from Peter Dutton’s home affairs portfolio, police union leaders have warned.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/mar/15/federal-police-must-split-from-dutton-ministry-to-save-integrity-says-union

    So I reckon they know what they are going on about and those are the first steps.

    I would also say that (while completely supporting better gun regulations as per above) the biggest issue here isn’t just the weapon but the attitudes/beliefs these violent extremists have and the right-wing politicians, radio shock-jocks, and tabloid media that promote and normalise them.

  17. guytaur @ #2076 Sunday, March 17th, 2019 – 2:12 pm

    Andrew Earlwood

    No you are blaming the Greens for the conflict inside the Labor party.
    You expect trust when Labor could not trust Labor. You wonder why people are wary afterwards.

    This all while ignoring actual evidence that the Greens work with Labor well and have for years.

    This shows its your prejudice against the Greens not reality. If it what you try and make out was reality there would be no Labor Minority government in the ACT. Rattenbury is a minister.

    I think the majority of Labor voters out in the real world are supportive of many of the Greens policy positions.

  18. The stories not making the MSM headlines, that would be if it was a non-white terrorist.

    Daughter of Christchurch victim: ‘My dad is a real hero. He got shot in the back to shield my brothers’.
    Khaled Mustafa’s long journey from the horrors of civil war in Syria ended with a different kind of barbarity in a place he thought would be a sanctuary for him and his family.

    Mustafa, his wife and children arrived in Christchurch a few months ago. On Friday he was shot dead along with 49 others attending prayers at two mosques in the New Zealand city. One of his teenage sons, Hamza, is missing; the other, Zaid, was recovering from surgery in hospital.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/mar/16/relatives-those-killed-new-zealand-mosques-tell-of-anguish?utm_term=RWRpdG9yaWFsX0d1YXJkaWFuVG9kYXlBVVMtMTkwMzE3&utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GuardianTodayAUS&CMP=GTAU_email

  19. Guy. From someone actually “on the inside” I can say without any speculation that there will not be a “Labor Green” Government in nsw, regardless of the outcome next Saturday. No alliance, formal or informal. No “understanding”.

    It has nothing to do with blaming the greens, or fearing them. It just comes down to a clear sighted decision for Labor to do what’s in its political interests. That does not include the greens. Sorry about that (not really. The greens are anathema).

    Misunderstanding history or drawing parallels with proportional representation justifications like Tasmania or ACT is no makeweight against cold hard reality.

  20. SK

    Scumdog is 100% political opportunist and 0% anything else.

    He has a Plan. Using muslims as a tool. The tool part is what counts. Muslims can go suffer.

    Morrison has spent the worst part of two decade doing anything he could get away with to bastardize muslims for personal political power. And the muslims were onto him. After his last bastard burst of Islamophobic dogwhistling, Australia’s muslim leaders refused to meet with him. At all.

    Did Morrison even carpet Porter for implying that all Nauru and Manus inmates were rapists, terrorists, murderers and pedophiles?

    Any decent statesman would have sacked Porter. But Porter was doing Morrison’s bidding.

    Now, seeing a grubby political opportunity, Morrison tries the reverse ferret and wades through the muslim blood made possibly by decades of the normalization of Islamophobia – aka using muslims as a political tool.

    There is nothing statesmanlike about Morrison.

    He is an amoral second hand car salesman selling a second hand government car with iron filings in the sump, soap in the radiator, and sugar in the tank.

  21. “I think the majority of Labor voters out in the real world are supportive of many of the Greens policy positions.”

    Obviously, because shorn of the greens elitist absolutism many policy positions are lifted from Labor.

    #greensclaimingcreditforstuff

  22. Boerwar,
    I agree.
    Also, I want to take back the word ‘spout’ I used to describe your thoughts on Living Wage a coupla days ago. It was a poor choice of words and could have been read as not being respectful of what you were saying – which wasnt my intent. I was in a rush and then out and about so didnt correct the record at the time. But it has bothered me since.

  23. Shorten’s doorstop just now love on FB – terrific messages. His comments about SK platforms being selectively blind to hate speech were very good indeed

  24. Andrew Earlwood

    I am sure the Governor will take that in account and appoint the Liberals the government then.
    You can’t deny reality of what people like Antony Green and The Newscorpse guy are telling us.

    Reality is with hung parliaments you have to show the governor you have confidence of the House. The more you can certainty with that confidence the more you have the chance to convince the governor you have that confidence.

    Thats the reality

    Edit:

    Just as the reality is that Labor has been working well for years with the Greens in the ACT.

  25. Simon² Katich® says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 2:03 pm

    When I see a PM I see two independent things. The politician and the office.

    So in my view, Morrison being stately about the tragedy compared to past (recent and more distant) political behavior (despicable as it was), is not as great a contradiction as it may appear.

    But it certainly has made his ability to be a statesman in this difficult and it’s understandable the response coming from the Muslim community.

  26. SK
    No worries. We are both genuine about wanting Labor to address the growing wealth gap and about wanting Labor to deliver a living wage. That is the main thing.
    It is reasonable to try and nail down the nuts and bolts of Labor’s approach and target before the election.

  27. NSW Greens could always just agree to support a Labor minority NSW Govt on confidence and supply but just abstain on any legislative vote that they don’t agree with.

  28. Andrew_Earlwood
    says:
    Sunday, March 17, 2019 at 2:13 pm
    “Andrew Earlwood, been in to visit Milton Orkopolous lately?”
    He was a labor leftie btw.
    Why are you such an arsewipe recently? To its eternal credit the Gillard Labor Government set up the royal commission – probably the single most important event in the campaign against child abuse in this country, perhaps internationally. She was backed to the hilt by the nsw right in caucus.
    On a personal note, I’ve spent the last 6 years mainly sending sex offenders to prison.
    Stop posting. Reflect. Do better, mate.
    _______________________________
    You have been calling Greens people dogshit yet object when the names of ALP convicted crooks are mentioned.

  29. I, for one, hope that the environmentalists in the Greens rise up as one and chuck out the doctrinaire extremist idiots who are wrecking the Greens Party.

    It is only the latter who could come up with a policy such as: “Remove all facilities that enable the deployment of nuclear weapons.’

    This would help to get the environment back to being a central issue in any election agenda.

  30. “You can’t deny reality of what people like Antony Green and The Newscorpse guy are telling us.”

    I can and do, especially when you of all people are parsing for them.

    If there is a minority situation ultimately members of the cross bench will have to declare who they will support. Such declarations are then taken into account by the governor when inviting one side or the other to form a government, in the same way as the governor would take into account the announcement of a formal agreement. If there are insufficient numbers of MPs to positively indicate who they would support them after the election writs are returned the numbers would be tested on the floor of parliament. Convention would disctate that either the existing caretaker government or the party with the largest number of MPs be tasked with putting a confidence motion to parliament.

  31. poroti
    Yep. The perfect approach is to notice that your engine is grinding itself to pieces, drain the sump oil and all the iron filings in it, put in some brand new sump oil and only move the car when it is being tested by potential Liberal voters.
    It is remarkable how many people don’t do this.
    As a penurious young lad, looking for my first car with all of $200 in my pocket, my standard approach was always to run my fingers along the dip stick. If the oil felt like shards of metal, I had saved myself any further work on checking out the car.

  32. “You have been calling Greens people dogshit yet object when the names of ALP convicted crooks are mentioned.”

    Liar.

    I said that labor no more fears the Greens than dogshit.

    Do. Better.

  33. Andrew Earlwood

    Yep we are back to ignore the media narrative because it does not suit your reality.

    The fact you can’t acknowledge a Green Minister in a Labor government in the ACT says it all about your prejudice about the Greens.

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