BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. I haven’t watched this program for about ten years, but Gerry is so tempting…

    Insiders ABC @InsidersABC
    This Sunday on #Insiders @barriecassidy will be joined by @latingle, Gerard Henderson and @lenoretaylor #auspol

  2. Fran Kelly interviewed Brendan O’Connor at about 7.40am. For the whole interview she pushed the lines that Labor is damaged by (a) Bill Kelty saying that wage rises should not be so huge as to harm the economy, and (b) Labor has not stated an actual increase amount they want.

    BO’Connor handled her with great skill, saying that they fully agreed with Bill Kelty and that it was up to the FWC to set the amount. He said Labor’s role is to put the arguement to the FWC, not the amount.

    And what was very pleasing to hear was that he firmly but respectfully called her out a couple of times when necessary …….. “Now hang on there Fran!” Great to hear.

    Kelly then went to Michelle Grattan and put the same two matters to her, full of expectations that Grattan would support her views. But no, Ms Grattan totally supported what O’Connor had said.

    I sent FKelly an sms (0418 226 576 if anyone wants the number) politely telling her that since Ms Grattan had confirmed O’Connor’s view, there was no need to push her (Kelly’s) view any more

  3. Crikey Gerard on Insiders. Sheeze he will be a twisted tormented soul.

    Could ‘nearly’ feel sorry for the silly old idjet.

  4. Rubio and Romney vote to overthrown Trumps National Emergency.

    The vote wins 59-41. That is some rebuke.

    And it aint too far from 2/3rds – not that it is certain those 12 Republicans would also vote to overturn a veto.

  5. Bloody hell, how much hand-wringing will there be from Gerard, with Pell in stir and the polls still gone to the shitter?

  6. “The problem is not so much Theresa May – it’s that Britain is now ungovernable
    Of course, May is hopeless and cynical and robotic. In the tragedy of her own premiership, she has played a not insignificant role. Yet I cannot place too much of the blame on a woman who is ultimately cleaning up one useless man’s mess, even while a bunch of other useless men wait for her to finish simply so they can vie for her job. When these days are long gone and the judgements are all in, I am confident that David Cameron will be seen as the true architect of this mess. He insisted on holding the referendum, he brought the date forward, he told everyone he’d win – even while imposing spending cuts that ensured he wouldn’t.

    Along with UK, USA is ungovernable and Australia is currently not governed.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/14/theresa-may-britain-ungovernable-politics-leaders

  7. So the Senate scuttles Trump’s national emergency. Could this be the first sign of Republicans willing to push back against Trump?


  8. Barney in Cà Mau says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 1:17 am
    It be interesting to see how the Green vote holds up in the State election.

    BludgerTrack has the federal NSW Green vote at 7%, the lowest of any State, with Victoria next on 8.2%.

    That is because the Greens are Mutinous worst & fighting amongst themselves.

  9. Donald J. TrumpVerified account@realDonaldTrump
    3h3 hours ago
    I look forward to VETOING the just passed Democrat inspired Resolution which would OPEN BORDERS while increasing Crime, Drugs, and Trafficking in our Country. I thank all of the Strong Republicans who voted to support Border Security and our desperately needed WALL!


  10. briefly says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 3:17 am
    steve davis….I think cataclysmic defeat awaits the LNP. They have been an incredibly bad government. Just stupefyingly bad. All the campaign themes are running against them; and they are running against each other too; running into each other. They have betrayed their own most-loyal supporters. They have treated us all like idiots and they think we’ll never notice. They’re wrong. Voters have taken note and they will decimate the LNP for their insolence, incompetence and idiocy.

    Nothing will stop voters from coalescing around Labor.

    Agreed except for a black Swan event.

  11. Monte, St Catherine’s are taking “delegations”.

    My daughters’ school does not appear to be on board but last time some girls just left school to go.

    Personally I don’t approve because of the burden imposed on schools. A decent weekend protest would get a bigger crowd IMHO.

  12. lizzie @ #50 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 8:47 am

    I’m hoping that I shall die before the worst effects of AGW are felt. That’s very selfish, I know, but I imagine how angry I would feel if I were a teenager and the “adults” were doing nothing to prevent disaster. Missing one day of school is nothing compared to the rest.

    I’m pretty sure we don’t, in the ordinary course of our daily life, get a choice about time and place for out final kickoff.

    Just yesterday (♫yesterday, all my tr♫ou♪bl♫es) I did my regular life expectancy check – courtesy of

    https://www.blueprintincome.com/tools/life-expectancy-calculator-how-long-will-i-live/

    and — Ta ♫ da ♪

    Und zo, he said, tapping where his teeth used to be with a high qvality 6b pencil, according to Hoyle, and usink the inhenewity of ze everagle Orstrayan handyman mit lots of bailink wire und zum sticky tape – the reports of catastophe, doom and ruin will be modified to show zat all vill be vell.

    In the meanwhile while we wait upon our meritorious betters 👽 to plot whatever they are plotting – would you kindly sumit your recipe (repice to my senior favourite daughter) for Apple pie 🥧with lots of of whipped cream. 🍨

    No, I didn’t check up about the annuity as I am hoping to take my reusable coffee cup to a suitable location to collect lotsa $5 notes from classy well fed, coiffed and accoutred ladeez and gennermun.

    A note. This is my entry for the Boring Post of the Day. 😵😲

    Next Tuesday – I will be having a consultation with my surgeon (he’s not really mine) at the local Public Hospital regarding bowel cancer – colonoscopy and music. I am hoping for a good report even unto the evil tasting prep mixture. I will be glad to have this over.

    Au revoir. 👋

    P.S. I forbid you to die before I do.


  13. swamprat says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 5:02 am
    The Commons has voted against every leave with-a-deal, voted against leave without-a-deal and now voted against another people’s vote!

    The UK can’t leave and can’t remain!!

    It’s ungovernable…… maybe the only option is to ask the EU for an extension and elect a new Parliament. Though that may return the same paralysis!

    “Ungovernable” is the key word. Earlier in tough situations like this they used to deploy their Colonial resources at their disposal to ward off the dire situations. Now they are at the mercy of even the smallest of the 27 EU countries for extension of Brexit date, a request, which was passed by UK parliament.

  14. Dan Tehan doing his best to seem very stern about children (aided and abetted by green activists) to protest in school hours. F£€~wit!


  15. lizzie says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 6:11 am
    Such a parody of a President, it’s hard to think he’s real.

    Deb Kirby @DuchessFrida
    8h8 hours ago

    Swedish Teen Climate Activist Greta Thunberg Has Been Nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize.
    Japan has nominated Trump (because he asked them to).
    There’s no contest in my opinion. Greta is working to preserve the future. #NobelPeacePrize

    Lizzie
    He is real & he is abominable ( to paraphrase Seinfeld)


  16. C@tmomma says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 6:22 am
    Barney in Cà Mau @ #4 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 1:17 am

    It be interesting to see how the Green vote holds up in the State election.

    BludgerTrack has the federal NSW Green vote at 7%, the lowest of any State, with Victoria next on 8.2%.

    On the Pre Poll one day, The Greens candidate did a little dance when a voter only took his HTV.

    C@tmomma
    How can I find my pre-poll booth?

  17. One Republican Senator is trying to achieve legislation that limits presidential power in the National Emergencies Act.

    “I agree with President Trump that there is a crisis at our southern border and have always supported his desire to build new infrastructure and barriers.

    “The concerns I’ve raised were never about what President Trump is trying to accomplish but rather with setting a precedent that a future Democratic president would exploit to bypass Congress to implement policies well outside the mainstream.

    “Over the past several weeks, I’ve met with the Vice President and senior White House staff to build consensus on amending the National Emergencies Act to prevent a future left-wing president from misusing their authority. I’m incredibly encouraged by the historic commitment from the President to restore proper balance between the executive and legislative branches.

    “While the Trump Administration is working in good-faith with Congress to amend the National Emergencies Act, Democratic leaders have outright rejected attempts to do so, in addition to calling the dire situation at the southern border a ‘manufactured crisis.’

    https://www.tillis.senate.gov/public/index.cfm/press-releases?id=65F4207C-B585-4A95-8165-F9705AEAB818

  18. Scotland may have voted 65% to remain in the EU. But it’s Government is not even consulted by Westminster.

    9 countries with smaller population than Scotland will have a legal veto on whether Scotland (& UK) leave the EU on March 29th, but Scotland’s Gov will have no power over that decision. That’s the difference between the European Union & the British Union. ☹️

  19. The UK becomes governable as soon as it comes to grips with the extreme right and the extreme left which are both demanding that a single referendum over two years ago forever circumscribes the democratic choice of all future Brits.

    The other thing that would help getting some get up and governance into the Brits would be getting rid of the two weakest political leaders Britain has had for over a century.

    At least Chamberlain stitched up some sort of deal.


  20. jeffemu says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 8:56 am
    Crikey Gerard on Insiders. Sheeze he will be a twisted tormented soul.

    Could ‘nearly’ feel sorry for the silly old idjet.

    Don’t feel ‘nearly’ sorry for the silly old idjet (whatever that means). He does not deserve it. He joined RWNJ union.

  21. WB: I suspect the preference flows from PHON (and other minor parties) probably have a non-linear relationship, they are largely driven by the protest vote, so any surges are likely from a single source, e.g. maybe 90% of the preferences from their recent surge will go to LNP, but something line 50% of their “base” go either way.

  22. ‘Confessions says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 9:29 am

    The Greens below 9% on Bludgertrack. All that disunity and calamity would be to blame.’

    There would be several more reasons than that. We have certainly seen that when the heat goes on in Bludger there is a ready resort by some Greens to personal abuse – cries of ‘idiot’ and the like. This is more often than not coupled with some pop psychobabble denigration.

    Given that the Greens Party supporters and members interpersonal conflict management is not up to scratch, there are some additional reasons why the Greens are not moving up and up and up:

    1. Their policies are an opportunistic grab bag of populisms interspersed with some forays into the absurd: we are solemnly informed that mining ain’t mining, that the ADF will become a light mobile force, that all facilities that might possibly some day some where facilitate the deployment of nuclear weapons, that their GMO policies will not close down the entire cotton industry… the list goes on and on.
    2. They have zero runs on the board after 30 years and no real prospect of getting any runs on the board in the next 30. They CAN stop things but people don’t vote for stoppers.
    3. Labor has a comprehensive and integrated suite of policies which are heavy on core issues of importance to ordinary Australians. The wealthy Greens are not so interested in that sort of stuff.
    4. Labor has better quality representatives and vastly superior leadership over the Greens.
    5. The Greens have been shorn of their favourite political road rage memes: SSM, abortion, LGBTI rights and the role of women by Labor. Their is, of course, a bit of Greens futile huffing and puffing about Adani, but that is about it.
    6. Labor is the Party of choice when it comes to addressing energy and emissions policies. The main reason is that Straya can’t wait for the first Greens government to form. Too late.
    7. People are starting to realize that a large number of Greens supporters don’t actually know anything about the environment and could care less. They are there for the Revolution.
    8. Cognitive dissonance. If their long-term Liberal voting, Savage club member, old white male Kooyong candidate gets up, he may well be the richest man in Parliament.

  23. Ven @9:17
    “Along with UK, USA is ungovernable and Australia is currently not governed.”

    That’s a neat summary.

    Re the Brexit, you would say it was a dog’s breakfast except that it’s not anywhere near as coherent or as well organised. Theresa May accepted the ultimate hospital pass as those most responsible for the mess stood aside or headed for the exit.

  24. Re KJ @9:25.
    I tried that quick quiz, didn’t do quite as well. All that lawn mowing must stand you in good stead. I’m trying diet and exercise. If I can stick to it, even if I don’t live longer it will seem like it.

  25. That life expectancy thing didnt ask how many children one has and if they are driving you into an early grave.

    Also, what is a workout? I work for Cunard. Does that count?

  26. Boerwar:

    I don’t disagree with all that.

    As C@t said it will be interesting to see how the Greens fare in the NSW election, being the state where the disunity and calamity has been on the highest display.

  27. a r @ #83 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 10:08 am

    “Your Estimated Life Expectancy – 98”

    Fucking hell, 60+ more years of this crap? Just kill me now.

    I went, quite suddenly, from about 28 years to 75 years in the wink of an eye.

    I like to have a look at “Twenty Four Hours in Emergency” on TV and can now reveal a closely guarded secret.

    The loving and still gorgeous old ladies and gentlemen (said to be 84/85 years of age) are looking out through the apparently aged eyes with the mind of a 30 year old. Wonderful knowledge.

    Regarding the test. It’s just a piece of nonsense I like to play with now and then. The real test is just getting out of bed every morning and keeping your loved ones close – forget your enemies – they can make their own arrangements.

    Also regarding the test – if you don’t like the result – cheat. 😇

    Formula One for me today. 🚘

  28. Burgey @ #42 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 5:32 am

    BK, as always such a terrific contribution. Admire your efforts greatly.

    Looks like Morrison is going to try to run a scare on the minimum/ living wage issue. AM on Radio National this morning ran a lengthy story on it, with a lot of input from small businesses warning of the perils, and Bill Kelty indicating the raise should be phased in over time.

    This is the same small business that complains that nobody is spending any money. Do they not realise that the pay rise is not money lost, but money that a few million people will now be spending?

  29. “The Greens below 9% on Bludgertrack. All that disunity and calamity would be to blame.”

    Don’t worry Quoll. You’ll always have Ipsos …

  30. Well one Never Trumper is seeing greenshoots from the Senate vote.

    It’s a clarifying moment. If #NeverTrumpers still think the Republican Party is worth saving, they will have to start with only 25 people. The rest are so intellectually and morally corrupt as to not be worthy of their association.

    Meanwhile, overall, the wide margin of defeat for Trump is embarrassing to say the least, but entirely understandable. Trump’s border wall is unpopular with voters, and his declaration even more so. He’s the captain of a sinking ship, devoid of any post-tax-cut accomplishment (if one considers a very unpopular gift to the rich, on which Republicans couldn’t run in 2018, an “accomplishment”) and beset by scandal after scandal. In all likelihood, barring an act of political suicide by the Democrats (i.e., nominating an unelectable, self-described socialist), he’ll be out of office and facing prosecution in less than two years. And the Republicans who defended and enabled him? They’ll have gone down with the ship.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/03/14/trump-is-losing-control-gop-senators-defect/?utm_term=.0fc77627787a

  31. My reading of the calculator is that I have been dead for 7 years.

    I hadnt noticed.

    Doesnt that mean you lied about your age?

  32. I doubt that there were enough detailed questions in that quiz to correctly determine like expectancy. For example,

    have you been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer?

    would almost certainly reduce the outlook.

    Similarly,

    Have you ever mined asbestos?, or
    Have you spent an extended period on Newstart? or
    Did you just eat a whole packet of Darrell Lea Batch 37 strawberry liquorice?*

    would be additional danger signs.

    *mea maxima culpa

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