BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

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  1. sprocket_ @ #645 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 6:26 pm

    David Lipson in Indonesia tweets…

    The full video of the #Christchurch atrocity is being widely shared on Indonesian social media.

    That is not good. Isis will use it for propaganda. AS Right Wing White Supremacist terrorists want to provoke attacks against Western (including Australian) targets, this is an unfortunate development. It could also stir up RW extremists in Australia and we have enough of them, from the top of our society to the dregs, to cause trouble.

    How our PM reacts will be important. He needs to be careful with his words, no wiffle, waffle or hedging and lay off the happy clapper rhetoric. We do not want these terrorists to win by creating conflict between people.

    He also needs to condemn Anning emphatically.

  2. On the other news story of today- I believe 40-50 students from the Brisbane state school at which I teach attended the climate rally today. From years 9 through 12, including (I think) seven from my year 11 chemistry and year 12 biology classes. Very proud of their efforts.

  3. Laundy is voting with his feet.

    His motives are bit purer I reckon.

    Others who are leaving maybe don’t fancy a probably lengthy spell in opposition, maybe can access a parliamentary pension and are often young enough to have another career.

    Laundy is most likely going because he doesn’t want to be part of the disgrace that the Liberal Party has become.

    Up yours Scotty.

  4. rhwombat et al.

    Ardern is indeed an amazing person. Without raising her voice or pausing for effect, her simple clarity of purpose, clarity of process, and her controlled anger, had me in tears.

    Respect. NZ is well served.

  5. sprocket

    Malcolm Turnbull tweets..

    As we condemn this shocking crime against moslems in Christchurch so must we condemn the hate filled Islamophobic ideology which inspires it.

    Do you have a link for this tweet? It does not ring true for Malcolm Turnbull.

  6. I was surprised to see that the Canberra Times has a link to a heavily edited version of the murderer’s video. Didn’t click, won’t link.

  7. Ardern: This is a Terrorist attack
    Is Ardern the first Western leader to call a murderous attack by non-Muslims in their country as a terrorist attack?

  8. All nutters who want to own guns are law abiding until the day they are not law abiding.

    There are too many sham excuses to justify gun ownership.

    For example, sporting gun clubs could be forced by legislation to be the registered owners and keepers of the guns, and be subject to strict access requirements.

    As to hunters, the very fact that in this day and age they get a kick out of killing animals defines them as people with issues.

    My former next door neighbour had a 50 year old son who was a nurse at Westmead Hospital, in a very stressful job. Four or five times a year his father took him too hunting. The father told me “after he’s shot 2 or 3 his work stress just seems to evaporate”.

  9. The remarks by Senator Fraser Anning blaming the murderous attacks by a violent, right-wing, extremist terrorist in New Zealand on immigration are disgusting. Those views have no place in Australia, let alone the Australian Parliament.— Scott Morrison (@ScottMorrisonMP) March 15, 2019

  10. Ven @ #658 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 6:13 pm

    Ardern: This is a Terrorist attack
    Is Ardern the first Western leader to call a murderous attack by non-Muslims as a terrorist attack?

    I think Morrison did so, shortly before Ardern. Ardern also commented that she was in communication with “the Australian PM”, so I expect there is a fair bit of communication going on.

  11. Morrison and Turnbull are saying what needs to be said. Saying it well. I am no fan of their politics but credit where it’s due.

  12. The media coverage of the NZ terrorist attack has knocked the many tens of thousands of students marching today off the front pages and news feeds.

    The kids plan to keep striking with major actions every few fridays.

  13. Kon Karapanagiotidis
    ‏@Kon__K
    1h1 hour ago

    Just a quiet acknowledgment of people and parties who haven’t said a word about #Christchurch today on Twitter:

    @PaulineHansonOz
    @PeterDutton_MP
    @TonyAbbottMHR
    @OneNationAus
    @RealMarkLatham
    @GChristensenMP
    @corybernardi

    I’m sure just a coincidence.

  14. Just listening to the NZ Police Commissioner, he said neither they nor their Australian counterparts had any intelligence whatsoever on these 4 assailants.

    Could it be that they have spent their entire time watching, tracking, obsessing over Muslim suspects – and let white supremiscists go on their merry way surveillance free?

  15. With respect to guns and safety, to what degree do PBers think that having a gun in your home increases the chance of someone in that home being shot?
    The gun may be there to protect but surely it’s presence must raise the chances that the gun could be used against the occupants.

  16. ScuMo hoping his black swan has landed?

    Meanwhile world wide atrocities of greater magnitude go unnoticed.

    And the kids marching for their lives disappears off the radar.

  17. Ven says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 7:19 pm

    Davidwh@7:11pm
    Unfortunately it is MT tweet.
    __________________________
    What was wrong with MT’s tweet? People are not reading it correctly.

  18. Oops meant to post this

    Q: Who carried out the shootings at Deans Avenue mosque? Was it the same person who carried out the shootings at Linwood?

    Look, I would love to go into detail, but a person has been charged. For me to now go into details of who did what would not be proper.

    Again, I know there is a name within the public domain, but it would be improper for me now to confirm that because a person

  19. swamprat says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 6:08 pm

    I would judge “islamic” terrorism as a right wing movement too. The perpetrators justify their violence on religious ideology.

    I don’t think religious extremism can be classed left or right.

    To me it’s a form of ultra conservatism and as such is the opposite to progressive ideologies.

  20. I mean how the fuck does a Grafton nutter spraying his filth all over social media, including showing off his guns, go to New Zealand, join up,with some pals, assemble a military arsenal and go and shoot 100 people?

    Some questions there.

  21. I ran past a group of students walking down the Terrace as I was on my way to the gym today. I asked them if they were on strike, and gave them a good on ya when they said they were.

    The contrast couldn’t be more extreme. So many of our young people are taking action to protect our’s and their future. Meanwhile a fascist terrorist is attempting to sow fear and division in our world. I’m not even going to mention a certain senator from Queensland except to say Michael Pascoe’s description of him as a turd was pretty spot on.

  22. sprocket_ @ #683 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 7:23 pm

    I mean how the fuck does a Grafton nutter spraying his filth all over social media, including showing off his guns, go to New Zealand, join up,with some pals, assemble a military arsenal and go and shoot 100 people?

    Some questions there.

    Apparently not on any watch list ????

    Dutton has questions to answer.

  23. Dog’s Breakfast @ #675 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    With respect to guns and safety, to what degree do PBers think that having a gun in your home increases the chance of someone in that home being shot?
    The gun may be there to protect but surely it’s presence must raise the chances that the gun could be used against the occupants.

    Old statistics, no link, but in the US I believe there is a strong correlation between guns at home and getting shot.

  24. On a different subject

    There are reports of a Financial Advisor being jailed for 10 years

    But the article refers to 2013

    It is now 2019

    What has happened over the intervening 6 years – leading to the 10 year sentence handed down Friday?

    The most effective form of regulation is self regulation, hey?

    Along with right wing ideology that austerity delivers confidence and that confidence will trickle down

    Hence a fractured and divided community – as comments on here will attest

  25. Barney, swamprat

    I have to ask why we bother with the idea of there being different flavours of terrorism. I don’t care what flavour of shit you’re selling.

    Breath. Sorry. This whole episode goes against my idea of self.

  26. So were all the killings just by one person? How can one person kill 30 and then go to another mosque and kill 20 more? And please tell me it’s not the fucking Australian. I feel sick enough already. I’m going to NZ for a holiday in a few weeks. I’m not sure I can face them if we’ve done this to them.

  27. Is there any suggestion that this nut had to go to New Zealand to get his hands on a semi-automatic weapon.

  28. Dog’s Breakfast,
    In most if not all states and territories in Australia guns and ammunition must be locked away separately at all times when not in use and personal protection is not considered as a legitimate reason to own firearms. so for a shooting to occur a severe error must happen or the intent to do harm would be premeditated.

  29. OK, so NZ is one of the first global places that the kids march against climate change kicks off.

    Next thing a mass murder in Christchurch?

  30. Barney inCM

    “To me it’s a form of ultra conservatism ..”
    ——–

    Yes. Fundamentalist religious ideology, or the violent and repressive imposition of a theocracy, is right wing as far as I am concerned.

  31. For me one of the worst elements of Anning’s press release is how he labels the terrorists’ actions as “vigilantism.”

    He immediately paints the terrorists as being the victim and their actions, whilst condemning them, are somehow understandable.

    He is utterly despicable and offensive to the extreme.

    I’m sure the AFP and ASIO are watching him with interest.

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