BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its steady course overall, but with signs of the Greens losing ground.

Another fairly uneventful week in the world of BludgerTrack, which has only nudged 0.1% in favour of Labor on two-party preferred and one on the seat projection (the gain being in New South Wales), despite their one-point improvements in the week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls. If there’s anything worth noting, it’s that the Greens have fallen below 9%, and One Nation are back up after a recent dip. Both pollsters also produced new numbers for the leadership trends, the only observable movement on which is that Scott Morrison’s net approval is slightly improving, for no immediately obvious reason. Full results through the link below.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,561 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.3-46.7 to Labor”

  1. Ven @ #368 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 1:53 pm

    Late Riser@1:39pm
    Ireland is part of EU. Today UK parliament asked for extension of Brexit date. All the 27 EU countries have to agree to that request. What if Ireland does not accept for date extension until UK accepts Ireland back stop?

    If there is no agreement between all 27 EU members (which includes Rep. of Ireland) and the UK, then Hard Brexit happens on March 29. Also, as far as I know the UK only voted to ask for an extension, they have not yet asked. At this point (from what I have read) May plans a last ditch vote early next week to try to get her deal agreed to. (The backstop is part of this.) It will be her third try. If that fails she will go to the EU 27 and ask for the extension. The EU 27 (incl. R. of Ireland) have pencilled in a summit for late next week to decide on the extension if it is requested. For now the EU has signalled that they would accept an extension request if it met some conditions, such as holding a referendum. None of the major political parties in the UK have said they want a referendum. Your guess is as good as mine…?‍♂️‍♀️

  2. Barney in Cà Mau says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 3:35 pm

    Your having a laugh, aren’t you?

    —————–

    What information was wrong ?

  3. And I put our media parrots at the top of the blame sheet through normalising religious hatred, along with f&cking mongrel arzewipe politicians who use fear and hatred of Muslims and other minority groups, to win elections.

    What a low, dishonourable, cowardly pathetic excuse for a piece of shite humanity, looking at you Howard, Abbott, Dutton, Morrison, Hanson, et al.

    You might as well as have painted targets on these people’s backs and loaded the weapons for these terrorists.

    May you rot in any Hell available and if there is not one, may one suddenly appear just for you.

    Christchurch mosque killing was inevitable to happen somewhere in our area.

  4. Boerwar

    They were a very big budgies. Hunted Moas for a living. So sadly no moa no haast eagle.
    .
    .
    One source estimates that the largest females could have scaled more than 16.5 kg (36 lb) in mass

    They had a relatively short wingspan for their size. It is estimated that the grown female typically spanned up to 2.6 m (8.5 ft), possibly up to 3 m (9.8 ft) in a few cases

    ……with a front-left talon length of 4.9 to 6.15 cm (1.93 to 2.42 in) and a hallux-claw of possibly up to 11 cm (4.3 in)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haast%27s_eagle

  5. Rick Wilson : ‘Revolting and pathetic’: Trump blasted by conservative as a ‘wannabe thug’ for his veiled threat of supporter violence

    On Thursday, during an interview with CNN’s Don Lemon, conservative pundit Rick Wilson railed against President Donald Trump for inciting violence.

    In an interview with Breitbart News, Trump said that he has a tough base who would defend him if they had to.

    “He’s issuing a vague threat of violence against his political opponents, claiming that he has the police, military, and bikers, those he calls the ‘tough’ people, on his side,” Lemon said.

    Wilson said that Trump behaves more like a “wannabe thug” than the president of America.

    This is what Donald Trump actually believes inside and it’s a revolting, disgusting, pathetic way to live as an American president,” he said.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/03/watch-conservative-pundit-rips-trump-as-a-wannabe-thug-for-inciting-violence/

  6. Gippslander @ #403 Friday, March 15th, 2019 – 2:17 pm

    RHW @3:03
    ” Every gun is a potential murder weapon, everyone who uses them a potential murderer. ”
    that statement invites the inevitable response “Ban all bread knives and motor cars because each of them have been used as murder weapons”.
    I agree 100% that we need strong Gun Laws, and perhaps regular supervision of the people entitled to use guns. However , wild statements like the one you appended to your otherwise sensible post only serve to help our opponents in the Gun Lobby.

    I don’t buy the argument that knives kill too. Guns are different. Guns make it ridiculously easy to kill many many many people. We should make it harder to kill. That is the principle.

  7. Scott says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 3:46 pm
    Barney in Cà Mau says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 3:35 pm

    Your having a laugh, aren’t you?

    —————–

    What information was wrong ?

    The name of the Country is, the United States of America, whether you like it or not.

    Your other points stem from assuming it is not and so, are irrelevant. 😆

  8. Points well made Puffy.

    The framing is so embedded now, I’m just waiting for some idiot politician or media shill to declare this to be ‘not terrorist related’

  9. The name of the Country is, the United States of America, whether you like it or not.

    And there is another “United States” directly to its south, too, so, Scott, your usage rules are…. rather inconsistent.

  10. Poroti,
    ‘Sohar
    Morrison has offered the ever useless “Thoughts and prayers”’

    Thanks. I subsequently found Morrison’s comment. “Thoughts and prayers” jumped out at me too.

  11. Barney in Cà Mau says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 3:57 pm
    Scott says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 3:46 pm
    Barney in Cà Mau says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 3:35 pm

    Your having a laugh, aren’t you?

    —————–

    What information was wrong ?
    The name of the Country is, the United States of America, whether you like it or not.

    Your other points stem from assuming it is not and so, are irrelevant.

    —————————

    Actually its speaking as politically correct which means it is the United States of North America

    the united states and South Africa are in similar positions but slightly different
    They are both on continents , and both used a name of the continent , the differences is

    South Africa is using the politically correct name , and The united States is not using the politically correct name

    and on the other points , if the United States citizens were just called American citizens they would not need to use a passport /visa to visit other american countrys

  12. I had a thought about Ardern’s not using the term ‘terrorist’. Namely that it is an immediate trigger word. Right now her aim is to project strength, calm and inclusivity.

  13. Andy Murray says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 4:00 pm
    The name of the Country is, the United States of America, whether you like it or not.

    And there is another “United States” directly to its south, too, so, Scott, your usage rules are…. rather inconsistent.

    —————————–
    ?

    Explain

    What is this other united states

  14. The people we stayed with near Nelson during the first couple of days here were your classic crystal worshippers, tree hugging, Buddhist greenies. They have a very large dam on their property – 250 x 100 metres-where all kinds of waterfowl come to rest and feed.

    Including geese. Unfortunately, they don’t like geese. Something to do with geese being interlopers in this part of NZ.

    They have a gun. Not an AR-15, but quite a lethal weapon, with a telescopic sight mounted. They shoot the geese from their porch. To teach geese a lesson.

  15. Barney in Cà Mau says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 4:20 pm
    Sorry, yes my 4:09 comment was to you,Scott

    ————————-

    Am i correct in saying this
    the united states and South Africa are in similar positions but slightly different
    They are both on continents , and both used a name of the continent , the differences is

    South Africa is using the politically correct name , and The united States of America is not using the politically correct name

    to clear things up , i am taking about political correctness ,

  16. Jacinda Ardern ,calm and eloquent, no doubt conscious of not wanting to increase the level fear that people must be feeling.
    Am impressed that 4 people have already been arrested and the footage showing the arrest of one of the gunman was reasonably low key…in a normal street with cars still driving past.
    Unlike the NSW police using the Riot Squad vans near the Sydney Climate change protest. How intimidating!!

  17. Has abbott called for all white christian institutions to condemn the actions of the NZ terrorist “and mean it”

    Morrison would have a little moment of excitement when he heard the first news – a muslim terrorist attack close to home is something he’d be praying for – he’d been dismayed to find out it was one of his mob going the shooting.

    How long before the terrorist is labelled as “mentally ill”?

  18. Has any of our moronic apologists for the gun death industry come out with the line yet, that, ‘Guns don’t kill people. People kill people’ ?

  19. When journalists asked NZ Police whether this Mosque shooting is a ‘Hate crime’ or ‘Terrorist attack’, police were reluctant to label it

  20. poroti says:
    Friday, March 15, 2019 at 4:24 pm
    Scott
    Given what is in general use how many would know such finer points let alone give a flying fluck ?
    ———

    Well apparently if certain politicians called Africa a country , there is an outcry by the media and other politicians (Abbott and co) attacking those politicians for not being politically correct .

    Yet The same media and politicians (Abbott and co) calls the United states , America

    America is not a country as well, and nothing is said about the media and Abbott not being politically correct

  21. What’s the bet some idiot will say that all “foreigners” need to be driven out so there is no temptation for poor oppressed white people to attack them

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