The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.
Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.
UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.
guytaur @ #280 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 2:22 pm
That’s true, but a bit beside the point. You haven’t thought it through. Our exporting of gas is helping other countries wean themselves off coal, so it is absolutely vital we continue to do so. And since we are exporting it, the fugitive emissions are a “cost” we will bear anyway, so it makes no sense not to also use it ourselves in place of coal. It does perhaps make sense to minimize fugitive emissions by stopping unconventional gas extraction, but that’s a slightly different issue.
If we ourselves used conventional gas in place of coal, our emissions from electricity would fall by a very large factor – somewhere between 25 and 50%
If we also stopped exporting coal, the world’s emissions would fall by a significant amount as well.
guytaur @ #290 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 2:33 pm
You have that slightly wrong. We are stuck with some fossil fuel generation for some time to come. But it would be better if that were gas than coal while we transition.
A person I spoke to today, who spent some time with John Howard recently, said that all he could talk about was his eyes! 😆
The Indy-Libs are an existential threat to the Gs.
The weird thing is the Indy-Libs basic platform is an environmental one.
The Greens made a strategic mistake; they decided to go after Labor when Labor was getting it’s act together, instead of the Liberals who were falling apart.
Labor is in a position to fight back; that is the Greens basic problem; the Liberals aren’t; that is why there will probable be more Indy-Libs in the next parliament than Greens.
Player One @ #299 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 1:38 pm
Yes. Ban fracking, already.
C@tmomma
says:
Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 2:38 pm
nath @ #294 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 2:35 pm
a hung Parliament in NSW to deliver BoP to the Greens? Now that would be interesting. Daley forced to dance to the tune of the Greens? Love it.
It’s not going to happen because there may not be any Greens left in the Lower House after the election but likely to be one not two as there is now. Which puts that MP in the same boat as all the other Indies on the Cross Benches.
___________________________
I count 3 Green held electorates in NSW lower house. Newtown, Balmain and Ballina. All seem to be pretty firmly held at the last election. So perhaps some wishful thinking there.
ar
Hear hear
Some Bludgers hurrumph about Blairites being called Blairites. Well guess what ? It is what they call themselves
.
.
……………..Leading Blairites including Lord Mandelson, Lord Blunkett …………..Lord Mandelson said that it was time for “Blairites and Brownites to work together to save the party”
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/11/labours-split-laid-bare-160-mps-peers-attend-launch-tom-watsons/
Speaking of Tony effing Blair.
Tony Blair, it seems, has been advising French president, Emmanuel Macron, about Brexit. The former PM has reportedly been advising the French leader on how thwart the referendum result
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/03/11/tony-blairs-collusion-macron-harmful-unpatriotic-completely/
Late Riser
Are you running a tipping contest on the Pell sentence ?
poroti
Let’s hope they manage to save Britain and the EU from the English.
poroti @ #308 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 2:48 pm
Why has he not been gaoled as yet ?
nath,
My information is that Newtown and Balmain are both looking shaky. Both MPs campaigned heavily on stopping West Connex through their electorates. Both failed. Their electorates are not happy and anecdotal evidence has voters going back to Labor. Also, Labor’s candidate in Newtown, Aunty Norma Ingram, the first Australian Indigenous Woman to go to Harvard, is running in a seat which includes Redfern.
Frydenberg backing away from previous position of BCRC on Mortgage Brokers. Backing GG’s arguments by the sounds of it.
It would appear that Pell’s sentencing will be broadcast live from the court at 1000 ESST tomorrow.
Cat and Nath
To save William the trouble there is a NSW thread.
With some very good analysis
Kenny Craig style?
C@t
* We have been asking voters what the most important issue is to them this election. So your average middle-aged mum comes along and we got a very surprising answer from her. She said that the most important issue to her was the squandering of taxpayers’ money by the government!
_____________________________________
Every time I see one of those ads on TV that tell you absolutely nothing other than we have a wonderful tax system or building great infrastructure I comment to my partner that’s our taxpayers dollars at work on a political ad. I wonder how many other non-Labor voters are seeing it the same way.
I read somewhere the other day that the hard heads in the Labor campaign believe the Libs and Labor will be neck and neck till early next week and then the voters will break one way or the other about who they will put in to power.
Polls understated Labor in the Victorian State Election. So, the climate change issue may be the catalyst for a final week surge. Joyce fomenting Leadership division again will not be positive for the the NATs and the scandal around distribution of water in the MDB may send the voters out to play with machine guns.
Doyle has played well. The Stadiums issue seems to also be resonating in the bush.
So, I’m anticipating the ALP will be coming over the top and Labor will have a small majority.
guytaur @ #313 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 2:54 pm
birds of a feather…. ?
nath @ #306 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 2:44 pm
The Greens holding the BoP is the safest option at the moment given the the Libs And Labors track record over the last decade.
C@tmomma
says:
Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 2:53 pm
nath,
My information is that Newtown and Balmain are both looking shaky. Both MPs campaigned heavily on stopping West Connex through their electorates. Both failed. Their electorates are not happy and anecdotal evidence has voters going back to Labor. Also, Labor’s candidate in Newtown, Aunty Norma Ingram, the first Australian Indigenous Woman to go to Harvard, is running in a seat which includes Redfern.
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Or, in an election that doesn’t look like a big ALP swing the Greens hold their 3 seats and add Summer Hill to make it 4 and have Balance of Power. We will see.
guytaur,
Frydenberg was an early adopter of not proceeding with the remuneration changes apart from the end of trail. from 1/7/20. Looks like the Banks will be paying the Brokers directly and the fee will be 1.1% of the drawn down loan.
Labor got on board with this about two weeks ago.
guytaur @ #315 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 2:56 pm
I’m not an illiterate idiot, guytaur, I know that, and if you checked before admonishing me you would have found that I cross-posted here from that thread where I posted first. I posted here also just in case anyone was interested. Which nath seems to be, so I answered his questions. Here. Got it? Good.
nath @ #321 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 3:01 pm
In an election that IS looking at a big swing to Labor. We SHALL see. Summer Hill won’t fall. I’m on the ground.
CFW and her colleagues have never attempted to ‘brainwash’ kids have they ? …have they …??
Kenny Craig style?
____
Simon Katich
That had me startled for a while!
GG
It looks like a backflip to me.
I have not kept up so will take your word on it.
I am sure the LNP details will make Labor’s look good. This government doesn’t know it’s ass from its elbow
Bill Shorten passionate and persuasive here:
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1105273835249491968
The Greens holding the BoP is the safest option at the moment given the the Libs And Labors track record over the last decade.
In your dreams, Rex Douglas. Labor has been down that road before and they’ve seen that movie and don’t particularly want to see it again. I think Labor would be happier dealing with Greg Piper, Alex Greenwich and Dr Joe McGirr.
Anyway, talk to me on the NSW thread or guytaur will have a hissy fit! 😆
Cat
I am not admonishing. I am reminding. It would be very very hypocritical of me to admonish after making some NSW comments myself.
What I have been told is that the industry campaign to thwart CBA’s attempts to destroy competition has been very successful because of the grass roots support from Mortgage Broking customers flooding politician offices voicing their concerns.
Bowen allegedly said, “Labor don’t want a fight with voters” on this issue.
Sohar @ #328 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 3:08 pm
Yeah, did he go the ‘bigger, better tax cuts’ thing again like yesterday ?
guytaur @ #330 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 3:11 pm
Fair enough, guytaur.
Rex Douglas @ #332 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 3:13 pm
If you actually watched it, instead of lying in wait to play ‘Gotcha!’ here, you would hear him saying many of the things you profess to believe in yourself.
C@tmomma @ #334 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 3:15 pm
I didn’t watch the whole interview – that’s why I asked the question.
There you go with high and mighty act again…
Hee. Perhaps I should have said Kenny Craig of Little Britain style.
If that had you startled dont watch the NYTimes video I posted earlier.
SK
It’s actually my real name!
@ nath:
“a hung Parliament in NSW to deliver BoP to the Greens? Now that would be interesting. Daley forced to dance to the tune of the Greens? Love it.”
Actually, if Labor is able to form a minority government it will have increased its own seats from 34 to at least 42 seats. In which case it’s likely to have both a “left wing” majority (Labor, plus Greens plus 1 or more progressive independent) and a “right wing” majority (Labor, plus a couple of SFF and 2-3 conservative independents) on any individual piece of legislation. Same goes for the upper house.
So a NSW minority Labor government would be forced to dance to any particular tune. Especially the Greens. Sorry to disturb your wet dream nath.
Rex Douglas @ #311 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 1:52 pm
Good for him. That referendum result deserves to be thwarted.
Probably because giving policy to a foreign power about how to run its international policy negotiations isn’t a crime in that way that colluding with a foreign power to rig a domestic election is. Not that anyone has been locked up (yet) over that latter thing, either.
a r @ #214 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 12:17 pm
It is important for some of the Muslim women to have access to swimming for health and fitness. It is not so much their religions but the beliefs in their family. It would also assist non-muslim women who cannot go swimming in mixed company. And there are plenty of non-muslim blokes who still do that sort of thing to their wives. One session a week at the public pool should not be much of a hardship.
It is a conundrum, or maybe a contradiction, but we need to balance the needs here. As much as I do not like the segregation of women I know it happens in Australia and I want those women to have the opportunity to swim.
“I read somewhere the other day that the hard heads in the Labor campaign believe the Libs and Labor will be neck and neck till early next week and then the voters will break one way or the other about who they will put in to power.”
I never understand this kind of thinking – we’re talking about millions of people, they don’t all suddenly decide “who they will put into power”. All that happens is a few % of swing/undecideds solidify a nascent preference as the election looms for a whole range of different reasons. Ascribing motives to a disparate group of people as though they have a single motive is irrational.
The Chinese take a direct approach to their potential future problem of declining population …
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-12/chinese-database-lists-breedready-status-of-1.8-million-women/10891644
I suggest they just rename it “WombBook” and cash in!
zoomster
Obama/Clinton flame war? I rarely comment on anything USA so I wouldn’t have got very excited about that. 😉
Rex Douglas @ #307 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 1:50 pm
After a bit of thought, no. It seems a little gratuitous.
BK
Ah!
Yes! That would have startled!
I would never have guessed you had a fetish for womens underwear.
PuffyTMD @ #340 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 2:27 pm
Yep. The proposition I was responding to was (or looked like) a proposal for having a permanent ‘Muslim only’ pool that only Muslim women could join. A bit different from a public pool doing a weekly ‘ladies night’ (or ‘adult swim’, or other similar things).
If it’s one shared pool that anyone can join/visit which occasionally kicks some people out of the water but spends the bulk of its time letting anyone who wants to swim, swim, then that’s fine by me. My one proviso would be that the exclusionary events should be scheduled for times that are typically low-usage, like weekday evenings.
Player One @ #276 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 11:18 am
You’re worried about wasting time and money, yet advocating for new nuclear power?
When was the last time a nuclear power plant was delivered without *at least* doubling its original budget and construction schedule, and that doesn’t take into account the plants that were abandoned mid way though with billions down the drain. Any solar or wind started today would be due for replacement by the time a proponent would be getting ready to commission their nuclear power plant that they started working on today.
Andrew_Earlwood says:
Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 3:25 pm
@ nath:
“a hung Parliament in NSW to deliver BoP to the Greens? Now that would be interesting. Daley forced to dance to the tune of the Greens? Love it.”
Actually, if Labor is able to form a minority government it will have increased its own seats from 34 to at least 42 seats. In which case it’s likely to have both a “left wing” majority (Labor, plus Greens plus 1 or more progressive independent) and a “right wing” majority (Labor, plus a couple of SFF and 2-3 conservative independents) on any individual piece of legislation. Same goes for the upper house.
The other side of this coin is to note that the Gs could collude with the LNP and assorted Tories to thwart Labor. This will be their standard operating plan.
Player One @ #287 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 11:30 am
I can’t see offshore wind ever being viable in Australia unless we can find some way of being able to cost effecitvely build offshore (floating?) wind farms to capitalise on the roaring forties or furious fifties.