Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 5 of 40
1 4 5 6 40
  1. citizen

    Kim could be worried about voter apathy and falling turnout though. 2009 voter turnout of 99.98% , plummeting in 2014 to 99.97%.

  2. KayJay @ #172 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 10:52 am

    Late Riser @ #145 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 11:31 am

    KayJay

    Thank you. And yes the “Anti-Paywall” Chrome version was the downloaded upload. It is a ZIP file, snug on my laptop. I use Opera with an extension to enable Chrome add ins, if that makes sense. I suppose the question is, how do I add the add in from a ZIP file? 😕

    I am at heart quite lazy. I can experiment. 🙂

    Unzip the file which give you a little folder
    Anti-paywall-master

    You will then open Chrome and go to More Tools – Extensions – which will look like this (diminished to make room on my desktop)

    You can then slide the Anti-paywall-master folder from the desktop onto
    the Extensions section and magically it will be embraced.

    See how you go. Please advise. 😵

    Ah hah! That worked, even in Opera. Genius. I was trying all kinds of “Open”, “Add”, “Get”, and name calling if it must be admitted. It had not occurred to me to drag-drop the folder.

    Thank you. 🙇

  3. Heading off in a while for Nornalup on WA’s south to attend the funeral tomorrow of a former colleague’s wife.

    A drive through the jarrah and karri forest to the beautiful south coast is good for the spirit.

    Pity more Bludgers can’t do something similar.

  4. Adrian: “Unfortunately this site is infested with a special kind of zealot that does a disservice to the party that they claim to support.”

    Agreed, Adrian. Unfortunately, the majority of these are associated with the right of the Labor Party, with the rest claiming to be Greens (I have my doubts). The Libs are mostly well-behaved on the blog these days. Wayne is a special category.

  5. Player One @ #198 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 12:24 pm

    yabba @ #192 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 12:15 pm

    Thanks again. Higher though. Let your knees touch your nose. And be careful about the projection.

    Keep it up, yabba. One or the other of us will end up being banned and I don’t care if it is me, because you make this place unsanitary anyway.

    Nearly! Just a little bit more. You can do it! Don’t forget the Foster family!

    Remind me, who is pathetic? Is your Dad a policeman?

    Going doorknocking with David now. Have a naice day!

  6. Pegasus @ #197 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 12:23 pm

    (btw, if Greens supporters want this to go away, they should just stop talking about it…)

    The first poster to mention Burnside this morning was GG in response to a post I made to rhwombat that had nothing to do with Burnside.

    ———

    Greensborough Growlersays:
    Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 9:44 am
    Peg,
    Well, you’re off to a good start!
    Personally, Burnside still has questions to be answered.

    ————

    The second mention of Burnside today was in a post by Confessions:

    Confessionssays:
    Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 9:49 am
    Personally, Burnside still has questions to be answered.
    Did he end up cancelling his membership of the Savages Club?

    ———-

    All very deliberate of course to keep the pot on the boil.

    However, despite all attempts to hang and quarter Burnside, it people are continuing to donate to his campaign.

    The obsession of a few Laborites, in concert with the MSM such as the Australian (which says everything about their agenda) are the ones who are obsessed with Burnside.

    You’ve missed a few opinions about Burnside’s candidacy today. So, clearly there is a market to discuss it and you being grumpy about that is just bad luck.

    BTW, the candidate with the most number of votes usually wins elections. Fund raising is helpful. But, if the candidate does not resonate with local voters, then he’s toast.

  7. Re Laundy

    My OH tells me Dutton and Laundy may both be missing. I have a cartoon in my head where one of them is holding the other in a dark room. Robust negotiations will continue until the right agreement is reached.

    Maybe if Laundy is sufficiently angry at Turnbull’s treatment, he (Laundy) might resign a week out from an election out of spite, just to help pull down the joint.

  8. My understanding is that is a parody site.

    What gave it away?

    Prime Minister of Australia 91-96 striving to educate, promote equality, removal of conservative power concentration. Attempt at parody

  9. GG

    No doubt you and confessions are very pleased with your deliberate aim to kick it all off again.

    I didn’t respond to the comments, but I was moved to finally say something because of zoomster’s typical disingenuous attempts, or mistruth, to suggest it was Greens here talking about Burnside today.

  10. Darn @ #158 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    If either men or women want to have some private time away from the opposite gender for a while I can’t see anything wrong with it.

    Certainly, and they can quite easily do that without having to seek membership in some third-party, commercial/for-profit organization in order to do so.

    Beyond that, I’m not seeing either the need nor the social benefit from allowing corporate entities to set up de-facto “no <women|men|muslims|christians|blacks|whites|asians|…>” zones just because some people want that and are willing to pay to get it.

    Respect for a person’s desire to not be around people who aren’t of the same gender, race, or religion as them only needs to go so far. It certainly stops when they set foot in any public area, and should probably also stop somewhere before that point, at whatever distance is required to prevent racial/gender/etc. segregation.

    Just as I will defend the right of women to have their own exclusive clubs, gymnasiums and swimming pools (mainly applicable to muslim women) if they so desire.

    But let’s not do that, please. The U.S. tried segregation, it didn’t work. ‘Seperate but equal’ never is.

    If someone wants a private gym or pool, then fine, let them build it on their own (private, residential) property and use it as such. There’s nothing wrong with that.

    As soon as you start talking about commercial enterprises, taking up commercial real-estate and operating on a for-profit basis to exclude certain demographics, it’s an entirely different prospect and there’s a lot wrong with it.

  11. briefly says:
    Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 12:19 pm
    An argument from real life as to why the Gs should dissolve themselves….

    The WA Parliament is in the process of considering for passage legislation to provide choices for the terminally ill with respect to their treatment and eventual death. The bill is presented as a government bill, with all parties allowing a conscience vote. The bill has the support of 4/5 West Australians. The bill has been actively supported by Dying with Dignity. It will easily pass the Lagislative Assembly with the support of all the very many Labor MPs who have expressed their willingness to vote for reform. Dying with Dignity is a voluntary organisation. One of my friends, a Green activist, is very active in this group.

    The bill may not pass the Legislative Council. At present 14 MLC’s have indicated they will support the bill. This number includes not one single Liberal. Not a one. If reform fails it will be because of the opposition of Liberals and their like-minds.

    If reform in this very important area is enacted it will be entirely because a Labor Government has been elected and is willing to guide the process through the Parliament. If it fails it will be because of the Liberals. Those who want this reform include the Greens.
    —–

    OK to here I get it Briefly – The Greens are not obstructing the bill and in fact are supporting it.

    1- Where is the obstruction ?

    2- How is the Greens supporting this Labor bill “intended to aid the Liberals at all times in all places”.

    You contradict yourself with your own statements when you launch into this —

    “And yet the Greens, as a matter of perpetual strategy, as a matter of political exigency, campaign all the time against Labor. Their negativity is self-defeating in terms of their values. It is also intended to aid the Liberals at all times and in all places. The Greens should dissolve themselves. They self-obstruct” .

    I’m sorry it makes no sense to me. The Greens are in fact “like minded” on this issue with Labor and if they weren’t it is their right to be different to Labor not because it is a Labor bill but because they don’t see the issue the same way as Labor do. And, moreover, you say it is an agreed CONSCIOUSS vote.

  12. Paul Keating does not and never has tweeted. I remember this being talked about here a while ago. A fake account was deleted after this August 2107 article.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/markdistefano/keating-isnt-on-the-line

    The more recent account is clearly the same guy doing the same shtick, except now he puts “parody”in his bio, but still more or less tweets straight, trying to fool people. I do see people on twitter falling for it.

  13. EB….as a matter of campaign strategy, the Gs rage against Labor without a break from their work. Every single thing they do is calibrated around harming Labor electorally. Every single thing they do.

    The Gs spend as much time deriding Labor as do the Liberals and the Nationals. They are an anti-Labor Gizmo.

    And just lately they have become an anti-Indy Gizmo too. They believe their political interests are best served by aiding the defeat of Labor and of Indy-voices.

    They are a Labor-hostile brand…one of several.

  14. Barnyard loves rooting, his own party…

    12/03/2019|4min
    Deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie has taken an extraordinary swipe at her colleague Barnaby Joyce, saying the electorate wants politicians to ‘stop talking about themselves.’ Speaking with reporters on Tuesday, Ms McKenzie says Mr Joyce’s call for a tax-payer funded coal-fire power station in central Queensland is ‘very different’ than what the party room believes.

    She says the Nationals are supporters of a ‘technology neutral approach’ to energy policy and will only support a coal-fired plant if the business case warrants it. Ms McKenzie also expressed her dismay that the specter of leadership tension has reared its head again, saying the Nationals back leader Michael McCormack, ‘to the hilt.’

    She says Australians are ‘frustrated’ that Mr Joyce is not ‘focused on their needs and issues.’

  15. Could it be true that as the Real Poll (the Election) gets closer, PB becomes more belligerent, nastier, more insulting? Surely not. Or is this just a sign of the general deterioration in politeness? As I remember, it never descended as low as this, even in the RGR wars.

  16. “They are a Labor-hostile brand…one of several.”

    Ohhhhh Poooooooor Labor… Those mean nasty Greens are just so mean!
    They spend all their time, every waking moment being REALLY MEAN to Labor. They are just nasty nasty people. Who have NOTHING better to do than be MEAN….

    I mean really. Grow up.

  17. Peg,

    What’s to deny?

    It’s a topic of interest to me and I will post on it whenever I feel I can contribute to the debate.

  18. More trashing of Barnyard’s coal-fueled outburst, from his own side…

    By Benjamin Preiss
    March 12, 2019 — 12.46pm
    Victorian Nationals leader Peter Walsh has taken a swipe at Barnaby Joyce, who maintains he is the “elected deputy prime minister of Australia”, accusing him of showing disrespect and dragging down the team before the federal election.

    In rare public criticism of his own party’s mechanics, the veteran Nationals MP said people were “just shaking their heads at the moment” about damaging infighting that has flared between Mr Joyce and federal Nationals leader Michael McCormack, fuelled by debate over the future of coal-fired power plants.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-nationals-leader-takes-swipe-at-barnaby-joyce-20190312-p513ib.html

  19. sprocket_ @ #220 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 1:00 pm

    She says the Nationals are supporters of a ‘technology neutral approach’ to energy policy and will only support a coal-fired plant if the business case warrants it.

    This could perhaps make sense … if the “business case” for coal included the cost of the damage it does, which makes it the most expensive source of energy of all 🙁

  20. Not much love for the BeetRooter amongst his colleagues today..

    “Barnaby Joyce and his colleagues have been told to “just shut up” and “stop navel-gazing” as a rift opens in the Coalition over a coal-fired power station.

    The backlash from frustrated National and Liberal MPs comes after Mr Joyce’s call for the power station was slapped down by Prime Minister Scott Morrison.

    It also comes as speculation mounts the Nationals could have a leadership spill shortly after the election to roll leader Michael McCormack.

    NSW Nationals leader John Barilaro delivered a blunt message for his federal colleagues bickering about energy and leadership this morning: “Just shut up.”

    https://outline.com/2GLt27

  21. lizzie, I agree. booleanbach posted an instructive link this morning that gave me a new perspective on insults, humiliation, shame and anger. It helped me step back.

  22. Astrobleme….I think the Gs would better serve their self-expressed values by dissolving themselves. They have got themselves into the very contradictory position of opposing those who can enact reforms – Labor – while simultaneously assisting those who will obstruct reforms – the LNP.

    By now, I guess it hardly matters. The Gs have been campaigning against themselves for so long now that they are driving away their long-suffering supporters. We can see this reflected in the declines in their polled support. The prospects are they will lose seats in May.

    The Gs could help elect a reform-minded Labor Government with a strong majority. But they won’t. They could make alliances with Indy-Lib voices and try to defeat Liberals in safe-held seats. But they won’t. They will run interference for the LNP instead.

  23. To change the subject to something non-controversial:

    GG

    I’ve been listening quite a lot to that song your daughter was involved in that was on JJJ Unearthed. A few questions about it if you don’t mind.

    Did she perform the song solo, ie did all the vocals and instrumentation?

    If it was with others, were they session musicians, or is she part of a group?

    Did she write the song herself, or was it co-written with another member of the group (if any), was it written by someone who is also a member of the group (if any), or written by an outsider?

    BTW, I love the song and would like to hear more if it’s available, or at least if and when it does become available.

  24. Pegasus

    ‘I was moved to finally say something because of zoomster’s typical disingenuous attempts, or mistruth, to suggest it was Greens here talking about Burnside today.’

    Of course posters will bait the Greens, because they know the Greens will respond. If you want the Burnside issue to die down, let them post but don’t respond.

    It’s always this way — I offer you genuine advice, and you spurn me.

  25. ‘My last comment on the matter.’

    Oh, if only I hadn’t been brought up a Methodist, and was able to place bets…

  26. lizzie

    Weren’t you around for the Obama/Clinton flame war? I ended up leaving the blog entirely for a couple of months.

  27. Burnside is running against Oliver Yates. They hope to spoil his campaign. They likewise hope to spoil the chances of the Labor candidate, Jana Stewart. They could not care less if Frydenberg wins or loses. The main thing for the Gs is to prevent either Stewart or Yates from winning.

  28. ‘sprocket_ says:
    Tuesday, March 12, 2019 at 1:00 pm

    Barnyard loves rooting, his own party…

    12/03/2019|4min
    Deputy Nationals leader Bridget McKenzie has taken an extraordinary swipe at her colleague Barnaby Joyce, saying the electorate wants politicians to ‘stop talking about themselves.’ Speaking with reporters on Tuesday, Ms McKenzie says Mr Joyce’s call for a tax-payer funded coal-fire power station in central Queensland is ‘very different’ than what the party room believes.

    She says the Nationals are supporters of a ‘technology neutral approach’ to energy policy and will only support a coal-fired plant if the business case warrants it. Ms McKenzie also expressed her dismay that the specter of leadership tension has reared its head again, saying the Nationals back leader Michael McCormack, “‘to the hilt.’”

    Oh oh. Oxford dictionaries:

    ‘hilt
    /hilt/

    noun

    1. the handle of a weapon or tool, especially a sword, dagger, or knife.’

  29. A candidate in G-wear will take very few votes from Frydenberg. But they might take votes from Labor. An Indy-Lib is also a competitive threat to the Gs, who will want to stem the flow of G-leaning votes to an Indy-voice.

    The G project in Kooyong is aimed at Labor and the Indy. Necessarily, it is therefore a pro-Lib project. Inexorably, the Gs are running interference for Frydenberg.

  30. Dan,

    She wrote the song herself. She played all the instruments apart from the Spanish Guitar.

    She has been a Member of a Council sponsored studio and they have professional mentors and people with diverse industry experience to help on the production side. Although, she is very much a control freak.

    She has been in bands. But, she’s pretty committed. So, wants those she works with to be committed as well. This is not an uncommon problem with bands.

    She jobs around town atm and toured BrisVegas last year and does a bit of stand up comedy.

    Co-incidentally, she is just about to launch two more songs. One is called Hommus which is a song about friends sitting around a table talking and eating Hommus. The other is called Medea and is based on the classic literrary book of the same name. I believe these will be available for distribution in the next day or so.

    I’ll post the new stuff when it becomes available (with WB’s indulgence).

    Thank you for your interest.

  31. a r @ #128 Tuesday, March 12th, 2019 – 11:15 am

    Is there anything wrong with a women only club? Is there anything wrong with a men only club?

    Yes and yes. In pretty much the same way there’d be something wrong with a restaurant that put up a “Whites Only” sign, or a cake shop that put up a “No Gays” sign.

    To the extent that membership can be construed as ‘goods or services’ provided by the club, having a rule that explicitly excludes one gender or the other from buying a membership seems like it could even run afoul of the Sex Discrimination Act 1984. Though of course savvy clubs will easily get around that by 1) not having the rule explicit, and 2) using other reasons to refuse membership to the undesired gender (“we’re full now” probably being the easiest).

    Where does that put Men’s Sheds and its program?

    Membership is not in the nature of goods and services. It’s an agreement by and between members to (generally) be bound by a set of rules for a purpose(s). I’m not sure that you can equate discrimination on the basis of sex, race, religion in the provision of services, which is wrong, to men or women only clubs. What are the options if these clubs no longer exist and, for whatever reason, people just want to enjoy the company of persons of their own gender? BB’s toilet?

    As Aunty Shirl – close family friend, not real Aunty – said to my mum after she took on more hours as a part-time secretary at the local seminary after her husband Frank retired: “They don’t tell you that you have to have lunch with them every day!”

  32. “The G project in Kooyong is aimed at Labor and the Indy. Necessarily, it is therefore a pro-Lib project. Inexorably, the Gs are running interference for Frydenberg.”

    I mean this is deranged…

  33. Simon,

    I didn’t know Kellyanne played cricket.

    I suppose she has a bit of spare time these days now daily WhiteHouse Press Conferences are no longer held.

  34. The beetrooter’s mental health needs to be questioned. he looks and sounds quite deranged (more than usual). Turnbull would be laughing bitterly re: the “I’m the elected deputy PM”

    Barnyard must be fearful that the kickbacks from his coal patrons will stop coming.

    Is there any change of him losing his seat? You’d think a half decent independent could give him a run for his money. Does he think he’d have a better chance as leader, or is he just eyeing of the difference in pensions for deputy PM and minister compared to a backbencher /’special envoy’.

    the resignations and by-elections after the election will likely see the labor majority grow. Barnyard will be one of them.

    Next polls will be 55-45 to labor – mark me down for that please. They can’t even show discipline 11 days out from the NSW election.

  35. The last thing the Gs want is for strong, competing voices in the Parliament that articulate reformist views on the climate, the environment or the treatment of refugees. These are the only attention-getting lines on the G-shelves. Nothing else sells for them. So they will try to squeeze out the competition. Without these, the Gs have no means to connect with an audience. They will be unheard if these issues are successfully adopted by Labor or, especially, by Indy voices.

    So they will be very worried by the success of Phelps. They will hope that Steggall loses/Abbott wins. They will want to stop Yates. The Indy-Libs are an existential threat to the Gs.

Comments Page 5 of 40
1 4 5 6 40

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *