Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Astrobleme .. I support the Greens anti nuclear policies. Of course as you would know the Greens were first with things like “banking royal commission”, “legal same sex marriage”, “federal ICAC” – policies which the ALP eventually woke up and supported – I believe even mad cow Pauline took credit for the banking Royal commissions. The Greens will continue to play an important role in exploring policy options for us – some will fire, others will flunk. Personally I have voted Greens for several decades and intend to continue especially as my teenage kids think it is pretty cool!

  2. Pedant

    Advance Australia doorknock? Bet I won’t see that.

    GetUp seems to be able to mobilise people, get troops in the ground as well as fundraise. It’s what activists do.

    The Tory idea of campaigning is to attend a fundraiser, shake hands with the candidate and write a cheque.

    You don’t see the Right demonstrating in favour of, or against, anything much.

    Left leaning people do it all the time. It’s in the DNA.

  3. briefly
    says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 10:20 pm
    The relentless negativity of the Gs is really very demoralising….enervating.
    The country really needs change and wants change. At this point, the Gs are an obstacle to this. They will be swept away.
    ___________________________
    Most people preface their opinions with some qualifier or another. It may be ‘I believe’, ‘imho’ or a range of other words that convey a sense of doubt or at least a recognition that they might not have all the answers. The Bludger Briefly however, speaks as if he is a prophet or an oracle, therefore we get statements and Moses-like pronouncements from on high such as ‘they will’, ‘they must’. It is the language of certitude and ignorance.

  4. and it will be even better if they send out their grumpy old men to doorknock.

    Nah, these types are definitely the sort who love to be heard, but will never be seen.

  5. Rossmcg @ 10.26pm and Confessions @ 10.32pm

    Indeed. I just find it funny to see old and young fogeys of the right trying to match GetUp!, when they obviously haven’t a clue about what has made GetUp! successful – principally, being on the right side of history.

  6. It’s a truth of the times. The Gs are full of pity and woe. It plenties from them. They shine with reproach.

    Too bad.

    We need voices that can bring us together and marshal our strength. The Gs hope for the opposite: for division and for weakness. They are singing the wrong tunes.

  7. “The Gs hope for the opposite: for division and for weakness.”

    Yes, yes I do…
    It’s as if you know my soul Briefly…
    Have we met before?
    Maybe briefly, Briefly?

  8. Eventually the public will demand an end to the corrupting influence of political donations in politics – the Greens leading on this once again.

  9. Zoidlord
    “Greenies should go back to tree hugging”

    we can mutli task you know!

    My favourite trees:
    Eucalyptus Erythrocorys
    Eucalyptus Salmonophloia
    and Eucalyptus Diversicolour.

    I could hug one and do something else – maybe some GIS work – but not all three, that would be silly

  10. briefly @ #1479 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 7:21 pm

    Confessions…on Beto, I concur. He looks like a pile-up waiting to happen.

    He desperately needs advice and assistance on managing social media. Some of his forays into that medium have been terrible (nobody wants to see live streams of you getting dental work).

    But with assistance and support and if he cans the over shares, he has something that could appeal across the aisle.

  11. Astrobleme

    You redeem yourself somewhat with a list like that.

    Was in the road in the south this week. Eucalyptus diversicolor just shedding bark revealing the beautiful colours beneath

  12. Thanks Ross

    “You redeem yourself somewhat with a list like that.”

    My most treasured memory is walking along Petticoat Lane in Pemberton in the Hawke Block, a truly moving experience I have not seen the like before or again.

  13. You see those new housing developments with no trees, and little space for future trees and it’s sad. At least the old suburbs had plenty of open space on a block for trees and plants.

  14. You Gs, you scribes of resentment. I’ve had it with you all. The climb is steep and the summit too far. Yet you grease the slopes. I’ve had it with you. From now on, I’m not going to hold back.

  15. “You Gs, you scribes of resentment. I’ve had it with you all. The climb is steep and the summit too far. Yet you grease the slopes. I’ve had it with you. From now on, I’m not going to hold back.”

    Crikey!
    Not sure I can deal with that whilst holding onto this tree!

  16. Confessions @ 10.55pm

    Beto O’Rourke to me seems to be just one more bit of evidence of the crisis in American politics. Maybe he’s got some charisma, but he’s terribly short on serious experience – three two year terms in the House, less than Scott Morrison, plus a few years on the El Paso city council before that. People need to think about what skills are needed in a President, and campaigning skills alone aren’t nearly enough.

  17. briefly
    says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 11:02 pm
    You Gs, you scribes of resentment. I’ve had it with you all. The climb is steep and the summit too far. Yet you grease the slopes. I’ve had it with you. From now on, I’m not going to hold back.
    ___________________________
    I think the pics of trees finally sent him over the edge. 🙂

  18. Sorry to hear that Rossmcg

    Yeah those forests are amazing…. My most favourite part of the world.
    Hope to move to Witchcliffe in a few years – my wife wouldn’t go as far as Pemby or Northcliffe. Nor would she agree to buy the Tone River township. 🙁

  19. I wonder if she’s reached out to Alex Bhathal.

    A former Victorian upper house MP has resigned from the Greens, saying the party is “too toxic”.

    Samantha Dunn, who represented Eastern Metropolitan Region from 2014 until last November, posted to her Facebook page on Thursday announcing her resignation because she could no longer accept the culture in the party.

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/victoria/former-victorian-greens-mp-quits-party-over-ego-narcissism-megalomania-20190314-p514cm.html

  20. Numerous students from the school at which I teach going on climate strike tomorrow, including at least one from my year 8 form class. Very proud of them- looking forward to seeing final numbers.

  21. Isn’t Google great. You always learn something.

    In the 1970s, an organized resistance to the destruction of forests spread throughout India and came to be known as the Chipko movement. The name of the movement comes from the word ’embrace’, as the villagers hugged the trees, and prevented the contractors’ from felling them.

  22. Beto O’Rourke has too much experience when compared to the Donald.
    Anyone who campaigns for a decent health and education system for all can’t be that bad.
    Whoever gets the top job will need years to overcome the division and hate that has been whipped up by the incumbent.
    I don’t think any female will be able to stand up to the sexist abuse that will come out of the presidents mouth. The first run was just a warm up and gives a glimpse of what he is capable of next time. Surely not old Joe B again.

  23. Pegasus @ #1724 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 6:23 pm

    Shorten on the school strike for climate action

    https://www.9news.com.au/2019/03/14/12/12/school-strike-for-climate-action-bill-shorten-climate-change-politics-news

    Children should protest on weekends or after school rather than participating in tomorrow’s walkout over climate change, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said.

    Tomorrow thousands of students from across the country are expected to leave school to demonstrate against government inaction on global warming.

    But Mr Shorten was not in favour of the school strike.

    Pathetic. All he had to say was that they would be gaining a real experience in democracy and power in our society and it would be more beneficial than hours of classroom listening.

  24. Let’s take a trip into the mind of Vladimir Putin in the Summer of 2015 about the time that Donald Trump announced his candidacy for president.
    The Russian president is sitting over there in Moscow, and he’s a very unhappy man. The summer before, in 2014, numerous government officials, oligarch friends of Putin, and several financial institutions owned by the Russian government had been sanctioned by the Obama administration in retaliation for Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and seizure of Crimea. Among the banks sanctioned was the Vnesheconombank (VEB), a government owned bank with offices in New York and elsewhere in the United States that Putin and his pals had used to spy on American financial institutions and to launder money.

    Putin had already started making moves in 2014. Russia’s Internet Research Agency (IRA) in St. Petersburg, almost certainly a civil arm of the Russian intelligence agency, the GRU, and funded by the Russian government, had already begun operating within the United States. The IRA had established its so-called “Translator Project” back in April of 2014 and within months had sent two of its agents into this country on visas obtained under false pretenses. These agents had the mission of establishing the internet infrastructure necessary to infiltrate and interfere with the upcoming presidential campaign by buying false identities, laundering Russia-supplied money, and establishing web pages and Facebook accounts that could be used during the campaign.

    By the summer of 2015, Putin apparently concluded that the best way to get the sanctions on Russians lifted was to make sure that the next American president was friendly to Russia and likely to go along with Putin’s desire to have the sanctions canceled.

    https://www.rawstory.com/2019/03/russian-spies-2016-race-working-one-candidate-donald-trump/

  25. Sad to see how people get suckered in by selective quoting of Shorten. If you have actually seen the full quote you would realise he is supportive of students and puts the boot into Coalition for missing in action on climate change.

    This is mostly spread by Greens supporters. No wonder the party is going down the gurgler.

  26. bryon @ #1945 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 10:57 pm

    whoops, Ok it seems that wasn’t exactly what he said.

    Yeah, apparently it was this:

    However that seems to have omitted some stuff, too, since “That it was” is not part of the quoted remarks.

    Maybe let’s all just agree that ideals notwithstanding, schoolchildren striking outside of school hours can never be an effective strike. Or any sort of strike. For obvious reasons.

    So hopefully Shorten would know better than to suggest such a thing. And heap the scorn onto anyone who doesn’t. 🙂

  27. Gorks,

    It’s just like Rex a day or so ago, he started selectively quoting Shorten in a way that bared little resemblance to what he was actually saying.

    Is deliberate or are they just hearing what they want to hear?

    Whatever it is, it’s dumb because it’s so easy to go back to the source.

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