Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”


  1. Kate says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 8:57 pm

    Adam Bandt copping absolute shit on his twitter feed for misquoting Bill re the schoolkids strike. Running about 90% against him – some VERY disenchanted ex-Green voters……

    It’s not as if Boerwar has not been trying to warn them that continuously attacking Labor is not a winning strategy.

  2. upnorth
    The most unnerving regular medical checks I have ever had were annual checks for leprosy, as was.
    There was at least one active leper in one of the communities I worked in.
    I seem to recall that it was being transformed into the far less fearsome Hansen’s Disease at the time.

  3. Your problem, Beowar, is statements like this:
    “When the consequences are pointed out they come out with all sorts of contortions such as digging uranium from out of the ground is not really digging uranium from out of the ground.
    Anyway, I trust you enjoy the rest of your evening.”

    That are just weird… Given that their policies specifically mention Olympic Dam and only some strange twist of logic means that anything you dig is mined. when people dig a pit, that are not mining the gange or the tails or the waste. They’re mining the commodity… A gold mine is not mining quartz, but it is dug from the ground.

  4. I’m confused about the Greens actual policy on Olympic Dam but BW’s comment about uranium being mined and once mined will be unmined was funny.

  5. Astrobleme

    I just looked at the Australian Greens site and the don’t mention Olympic Dam. As noted several times previously the South Australian Greens policies are totally inconsistent with those of the Australian Greens.
    Now, when push comes to shove and there is a Commonwealth and a South Australian Greens Government, then it is the Commonwealth’s policies on not mining uranium that will trump the state policies. But you knew that.

  6. “totally inconsistent with those of the Australian Greens.”
    Not True

    SA Greens: “Oppose any new uranium mines in SA and ensure that existing multi-ore mines (eg. Olympic Dam), leave the uranium behind when processing minerals”

    Aust Greens: “The cessation of Australian uranium mining and export.”

    These are not inconsistent. They are the same.

  7. Observer @ #1820 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:35 pm

    DG

    You bought into this courtesy of me referring to Fink of Black Rock calling MMT “garbage”, you then passing opinion on Black Rock obviously to denigrate Fink and his view (that deficits do matter, and should not be deferred to the printing of more money)

    So why the effort to denigrate Fink?

    Because he has a view of MMT?

    The remainder of your presumptions are your views – and that is your problem not mine

    What I would say is that the size of the likes of Black Rock give them presence and influence

    But if you prefer Boutique Fund Managers – investing into Small and Micro Caps because they outperform then that is your risk profile

    Mind you, the higher the return the more the risk – and in my view small and micro caps carry speculative risk as history shows us

    And that is before you get to Short Selling!

    I have a few mates who have been caught!!

    OK. Looking back on it, I can see why you may have interpreted my post as rubbishing Mr Fink. My intention was to point out that the majority of fund managers underperform the indices, and those that do beat it don’t do it by much.

    As far as boutique managers go, I am my own “boutique manager”. I don’t have any of the Australian portion of my portfolio invested with any fund manager, large or small, although I have in the past used Vanguard, Colonial First State, Fidelity, Perpetual and others.

    At the moment the entire Australian part of my portfolio is invested in stocks I have selected myself. Up until the start of this year, it was easily outperforming the All Ords Accumulation Index, and every Australian share managed fund. This calendar year so far it has underperformed because I don’t have any money in the banks, BHP or RIO, which have provided most of the gains in the AOA Index since 2018.

    As far as small and micro caps being more risky, that is only on an individual stock level. A well diversified portfolio of minnows isn’t that much more risky than a similar portfolio of blue chips. In any given year individual blue chips can experience violent price swings as big as the minnows, sometimes moreso.

    Ultimately though we are investing for entirely different objectives. As a retiree your focus is on stability and income, whereas my objective is growth with income being of secondary concern. As I get closer to retirement, and in retirement, my objective will change and I will adopt a risk profile probably not all that dissimilar to your own. The only difference will be I will select the components of my portfolio (the Australian part of it), probably with high yielding listed property trusts. There’s a long way to go before I get to that stage though and much can happen in the meantime.

  8. While checking that the Australian Greens are going to cause the ‘cessation of uranium mining’, I was reminded of this little corker of a Greens policy:

    ‘Removal from Australian territory of all facilities which enable deployment of nuclear weapons.’

    Fancy closing all airports, air traffic radar systems, space-based comms, the NBN, weather radar systems, ports…

    The Greens really take the cake.

  9. “‘Removal from Australian territory of all facilities which enable deployment of nuclear weapons.’”

    “Fancy closing all airports, air traffic radar systems, space-based comms, the NBN, weather radar systems, ports…”

    Yeah because they all enable deployment of nukes… Tell me more… This is amazing…

  10. The Greens same same duopoly meme just isn’t resonating – in fact it is making those desperate for a change of Government very very angry….

  11. frednk
    The point is not whether the Greens will ever be let loose on Australia.
    On 9% that is very unlikely.
    But, they have used their BOP to block all sorts of progress.
    And they routinely assert a sort of condescending policy superiority over all of us mere mortals.
    And boy, do they hate being picked to pieces on their policies!
    That is not supposed to happen!
    BTW, Astrobleme this afternoon demonstrated two of the Greens standard responses when cornered on the real-world consequences of Greens policy: A started on the personal abuse and started on ascribing mental illness to the interlocutor.

  12. frednk says:

    Who cares about the finer details of greens policy. They are not going to form government.

    So a bit like Labor for about a decade after 1996 ? 😉

  13. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 9:21 pm

    “‘Removal from Australian territory of all facilities which enable deployment of nuclear weapons.’”

    “Fancy closing all airports, air traffic radar systems, space-based comms, the NBN, weather radar systems, ports…”

    Yeah because they all enable deployment of nukes… Tell me more… This is amazing…’

    It is your policy. Not mine. What does that line mean in practical terms?

  14. @ Rhwhombat not sure about the exact vaccine but it did the job and our dog got the entry stamp and skipped quarantine.

    @ Boerwar – no Civet meat for me.
    Talking about health checks. I do some work in Mongolia. The locals shoot and consume another rodent (Marmots). After one visit I developed a terrible fever aches etc. was hospitalized and quarantined. Apparently Marmots are plague carriers (meat and flea wise). Luckily I had the common garden variety flu.

  15. Astrobleme
    Just looked up the definition of mining.
    It is about removing ore from the ground.
    The Australian Greens are going to have a cessation of removing uranium ore from the ground.
    Unless you have made up a new definition of mining that involves not digging ore from the ground.

  16. Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 9:20 pm

    Wow. So no one here supports your interpretation Boewar… That’s pretty telling.

    Never take silence for agreement, it could just mean no one is really listening to you. 😆

  17. Astrobleme
    Just for the sake of the argument you appear to be eager to engage in:
    You can use an airport to deploy nuclear weapons.
    You put the weapon on a plane and the plane takes off. The airport counts as a facility.
    Of course if the Greens meant to say something else, they should try saying what they mean.

  18. Boerwar

    “Just looked up the definition of mining.”

    holy heck you still trying to flog this horse?
    This is nuts!

    So we have a gold mine that includes some ore for Silver, but let’s say the silver is not profitable and the just bury that ore in the waste.

    By your logic this is not a gold mine, but a gold-silver mine.
    Yes, do go on… This is amazing.

  19. Barney
    One of my best holiday moments was going to the island off Hoi Anh. I have forgotten the name. I was in my late sixties and for the first time in decades really threw away the worry beads.
    Once disembarked I just set off, I knew not where.
    A woman on a small motorbike offered to take me where I wanted to go. We agreed a trip price and off we went. I literally had no idea where it was or where I was going. We came to a hole in the jungle and she pointed. Off I went. I came out onto a beautiful little beach with a coffee place and some coconut palms. After thoroughly enjoying that spot I walked up to some people and pointed in the rough direction of where I wanted to go. Again I was pointed at another hole in the jungle. After a stiff climb I came out onto a track and there was an elderly man with a motorbike. Price agreed, off we set.
    For that whole day I got nothing but help and kindness and consideration. It was just wonderful.
    Is this your common experience?

  20. Beto O’Rourke, the former Democratic congressman from El Paso who in less than two years went from near obscurity to a national celebrity with his unexpected campaign for a U.S. Senate seat, announced Thursday that he will seek the presidency in 2020.

    O’Rourke’s announcement came after months of public reflection that included a solo road trip through rural America, a heart-to-heart talk with Oprah Winfrey and rallying with supporters near the southern border.

    In a video made public early Thursday, O’Rourke struck the same upbeat tone that he did in his contest against incumbent Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) last year, a campaign that despite its ending — he lost narrowly — built him a national following powered by prodigious fundraising.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/beto-orourke-joins-the-2020-democratic-presidential-contest/2019/03/14/631a7c22-3965-11e9-a2cd-307b06d0257b_story.html?utm_term=.8f017852b65e

    Just Biden to go……..

  21. Boerwar:

    “The Australian Greens want:

    A world free of nuclear power and nuclear weapons.
    The cessation of Australian uranium mining and export.
    Medical support and compensation provided to workers occupationally exposed to radiation.
    Compensation for the victims of British nuclear weapons testing in Australia, and rehabilitation of nuclear test sites.
    Uranium mining companies to be liable for rehabilitation of uranium mining sites and be subject to enforcement of standards to safely contain and monitor radioactive tailings wastes for at least 10,000 years.
    The rehabilitation of contaminated sites containing radioactive materials across Australia including former uranium mines milling sites, testing and exploration sites, research and production facilities and storage sites across the country.
    Closure of Australia’s ports and territorial waters to nuclear-powered or nuclear-armed vessels.
    Removal from Australian territory of all facilities which enable deployment of nuclear weapons.
    Prohibition of food irradiation and the importation of such food.
    Prohibition of the importation and reprocessing of international nuclear waste and fuel rods.
    Closure of the OPAL nuclear reactor at Lucas Heights and development of non-reactor technologies, such as particle accelerators, for the production of radioisotopes for medical and scientific purposes
    Safe, long-term containment of Australia’s existing nuclear waste and the phasing out of the generation of new nuclear waste.
    The elimination of nuclear weapons, through a commitment to legally binding instruments to prohibit nuclear weapons.
    To support the creation of nuclear weapon free zones, municipalities and ports.
    To cease production and use of depleted uranium weapons.
    The prohibition of nuclear power plants and the promotion of safe, ecologically sustainable energy options.
    The prohibition of government funding of mining, research, development and commercialisation of technologies directly related to the enrichment or weaponisation of nuclear material.
    The prohibition of the mining and export of thorium.”

  22. Barney

    “Never take silence for agreement, it could just mean no one is really listening to you. ”

    and yet you don’t stand up and say “It’s obvious Boerwar is correct”

  23. A
    Yeah, yeah. I think I understand that when the Greens say ‘cessation of mining’ they mean the cessation of mining except where it is going to lose them some votes. Where it is going to lose them some votes they don’t have cessation of mining because the mining keeps going right along.
    Alice in Wonderland stuff.
    Anyway, it is time to sleep.
    Good night and sweet dreams.

  24. @ Boerwar

    No. No tick bites at this stage so no Lyme disease for me!! Have had a bad case of Dengue though. But that was back home in Australia!!

  25. Kate @ #1444 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 6:21 pm

    The Greens same same duopoly meme just isn’t resonating – in fact it is making those desperate for a change of Government very very angry….

    It has resonance when Labor are in govt and the Greens can be the noisy minors on the sidelines throwing mud.

    It doesn’t work when there is a coalition govt that is on the nose and high voter anticipation of change for the better by voting in the Labor alternative. The Greens in this scenario are viewed as the noisy children just spoiling for a fight rather than being the adults who agree that it’s time to give the other mob a go.

  26. DG

    Glad that is cleared up

    As one who spent a working life of (effectively) 28 years in Corporate Finance ultimately in Senior positions I have had no desire to continue to individually analyse (now for my own portfolio) plus the ability to question would not be available absent attending AGM’s – and they might throw me out, particularly the banks!

    So I am quite happy to defer to Fund Managers (although I have the ability to change Risk Profile which I have done but only on the basis of my readings being other than the normal cut and thrust of Markets – so the decline in the ASX post 31st August and now the partial recovery is just cut and thrust (although Trump is a very real concern but that is another story!)

    So I defer to size therefore presence and influence – and I note comments from the likes of Fink because they are instructive

  27. Boerwar @ #1730 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    The Kid’s Strike is a Culture War By Blow much loved by the Greens and the Sky After Dark Crew because they can fulminate with a passion about nothing at all.

    Bottom line, the Kids Strike makes no real difference which is why, I assume, the Greens are attracted to it.

    Wrong, the Kids Strike brings the next generation’s concerns about the environment and the world they will inhabit to every newspaper, radio station, television station and commentator in the country. I can’t think of anyone else doing that at the moment, so hats off to them and I shall be joining them tomorrow in Canberra.

  28. “Never take silence for agreement, it could just mean no one is really listening to you. ”

    A very good point to be made in the context of those who frequent blog sites. 🙂

    I will chose who i engage with and the circumstances in which i chose to engage. 🙂

  29. Andrew Cannell Twitter:

    Word is Heathcote in a bit of strife for Libs despite a margin of 7.6 per cent! Gladys robocalls going into the seat tonight

  30. Nath

    “I’m think Mrs Boerwar is pleased she’s getting some alone time tonight. ”

    Spoke too soon I guess.

    In any event I find it strange that Boerwar needs to go the extreme of making things up about policies he doesn’t like.

    Anyway, I expect no one else cares, so am sorry I made the blog boring for a while.

  31. Today, two prominent Greens lied. They lied and then continued to lie.

    They lied in just the same fashion a Liberal would lie. They lied wholeheartedly and lied without shame.

    The Greens party has been reduced to lying as a political tactic.

    Lying may continue to be part of their platform, for I see no signs of it stopping.

  32. poroti @ #1893 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 9:59 pm

    HaveAchat

    You would have been hearing the same moans back in the Vietnam war days 🙂

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    Poroti,
    True, I did because I was marching in Adelaide, I remember walking up King William Road past Elder Park and being yelled at by bystanders asking why us school kids weren’t in school. My father marching beside me told them to mind their own business we were marching because we wanted the end to a war that was wasting Australia’s youth.

  33. Advance Australia, the Dad’s Army version of GetUp! is reported to have amassed a “war chest” of $395,000. That’s equivalent to a not very big super account for one person. I can’t imagine that will be a great threat to anyone, and it will be even better if they send out their grumpy old men to doorknock.

  34. The relentless negativity of the Gs is really very demoralising….enervating.

    The country really needs change and wants change. At this point, the Gs are an obstacle to this. They will be swept away.

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