Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 8:06 pm

    Boerwar

    “The Greens policy is to close down uranium mines. Olympic Dam is a uranium mine.”

    You are an idiot.
    It has been pointed out to your previously that the Greens would not shut it down.
    Why do you persist with this stupidity.’

    Please do not use personal abuse, especially when you are defeated in a discussion. It is unseemly.

    As noted above, the fact that Olympic Dam mines hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper does not stop it being a uranium mine.

    It is the Australian Greens policy to close all uranium mines.

    The stated aim, word for word, is ‘cessation of uranium mining’. Now your ordinary rational person would take this to mean that the uranium stays in the ground:

    https://greens.org.au/policies/nuclear-and-uranium

  2. It’s not been a great year so far for Channel 9’s trouble breakfast show — and it just keeps getting worse.

    After the non-stop saga of ousted co-host Karl Stefanovic, Today hoped to regain some of its lost audience in 2019 with a new look and refresh panel but it all seems to have been to no avail.

    Not only has the gap between Today and Channel 7 rival Sunrise widened dramatically, but now Channel 9 has slumped to third place.

    On Wednesday, ABC News Breakfast drew in more viewers nationally than Today for the first time ever. The public broadcaster’s morning show attracted 265,000 pairs of eyeballs from across Australia, just 1000 ahead of the Georgie Gardner and Deborah Knight-fronted Today.

  3. It’s like Ground hog day….

    Anyway this is terribly boring and I am sorry.

    It does seem that some posters here (mostly very pro Kevin Rudd people) have never recovered from the events of 2009-10 when the first emission trading scheme was being debated. They have ever since blamed the Greens for Kevin Rudd’s failure to negotiate… and so now all they do is ridicule and shout slogans.

    Strangely enough, and despite claims that they are impotent and never get things through the parliament, they helped pass many things with the Gillard Government, and also with this parliament.

    It’s as if these same self posters are so incredibly blind with rage that they will never see reason, no matter if it is shoved in their faces.

  4. Astrobleme

    I have pointed out several times to you that the South Australian Greens and the Australian Greens have different policies with respect to Olympic Dam. (You see, I actually read the Greens policies. They make for some excellent entertainment value.)

    It is the Australian Greens who have the legislative power to close down uranium mines. They don’t shilly shally about multi-ore mines at all. They intend to close down all uranium mining. If they form government, and if they stick to their aims, they will close down Olympic Dam mine.

  5. Confessions @ #1801 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:10 pm

    Vogon Poet @ #1770 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 4:13 pm

    Bludgers referred to Ludlum as a ” good ” green.
    Given his Trumpian lies today what does a ” bad ” green look like ?

    I was one of them!

    I haven’t seen Ludlam’s Trumpian lies so can’t comment on that.

    It hardly matters. He’s Citizen Ludlam* now, the same rank as you or me. He’s been replaced by Jordon Steele-John who, so far at least, is one of the “good” Greens.

    * Technically, he might actually still be New Zealand Citizen Ludlam. 😆

  6. Ah, Astrobleme, you have reached the final stage of your policy discussion failure: pop psychological analysis of the posters with whom you disagree with some really weird added factoids.

    For the nonce, I have long held that Rudd and Abbott are/were the two rotten apples who, between them, did a huge amount to debase Australian political life.

  7. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 8:16 pm

    I’ll repeat again Boerwar

    https://greens.org.au/sa/policies/making-sa-nuclear-free

    “Oppose any new uranium mines in SA and ensure that existing multi-ore mines (eg. Olympic Dam), leave the uranium behind when processing minerals”’

    So, what happens when the Australian Greens become the Federal government and ban all uranium mining?

    Do you see even the tiniest hint that the Greens are louche on their own policy formulations and their consequences but always hot to trot on critiques of everyone else’s policy?

    Anyway, for once. I’ll take the Australian Greens at their word: ‘the cessation of uranium mining’.

  8. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:18 pm
    ‘EB says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:13 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:06 pm

    You wank on endlessly ../.

    TROLL

    VERB
    [NO OBJECT]
    1Make a deliberately offensive or provocative online post with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them.

  9. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 8:20 pm

    Boerwar

    “The cessation of Australian uranium mining and export.”

    It is not closing mines’

    Sure. Sure. There will be no uranium mining at Olympic Dam. Except if you listen to the South Australian Greens who think there will be uranium mining but that the uranium, once mined, will be unmined.

  10. EB
    Weren’t you the one who referred to ‘drunken dribbles’ to a perfectly reasonable fact based post?
    Thought I had forgotten, had you?
    Anyway, lest William be forced to read another fifty posts on who is the baddest poster in the whole damn town, this is my last post to you tonight.

  11. Astrobleme
    We may have to agree to differ while we still can in a more or less civilized way.
    So, unless either of us has a fresh thought that might cause the other to shift our diametrically-opposed positions, I suggest we both quit while we are both ahead.

  12. Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 8:06 pm
    Boerwar

    “The Greens policy is to close down uranium mines. Olympic Dam is a uranium mine.”

    You are an idiot.


    TROLL

    VERB
    [NO OBJECT]
    1 Make a deliberately offensive or provocative online post with the aim of upsetting someone or eliciting an angry response from them.

  13. DG

    You bought into this courtesy of me referring to Fink of Black Rock calling MMT “garbage”, you then passing opinion on Black Rock obviously to denigrate Fink and his view (that deficits do matter, and should not be deferred to the printing of more money)

    So why the effort to denigrate Fink?

    Because he has a view of MMT?

    The remainder of your presumptions are your views – and that is your problem not mine

    What I would say is that the size of the likes of Black Rock give them presence and influence

    But if you prefer Boutique Fund Managers – investing into Small and Micro Caps because they outperform then that is your risk profile

    Mind you, the higher the return the more the risk – and in my view small and micro caps carry speculative risk as history shows us

    And that is before you get to Short Selling!

    I have a few mates who have been caught!!

  14. Boerwar @ #1693 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:39 pm

    ‘Upnorth says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:33 pm

    @ Boerwar

    It was ok . A little stringy. Of course the bottle of SangSom Rum I shared beforehand may have helped my “Dutch Courage”.’

    I will disregard this obvious and casual insult to a significant part of my heritage. I am sorry to hear that the rice rat was only stringy and ok.

    I have a question: Do rice rats harbour rabies and would BBQ treatment eliminate same?

    No, and yes. Rabies, like the other 5 lyssaviruses (including Australian bat lyssavirus) is transmitted via saliva into wounds, and rats are not likely to be exposed or carry rabies. Rabies is a large virus, which is easily denatured by heat (or by gastic acid on being swallowed). Thai rats are vectors for some other interesting human diseases….

  15. And I resent the statement from the interviewer that Advance Australia Whoevertheyare are the rightwing equivalent of GetUp. GetUp don’t smear political members and candidates with lies about their resumes or their character. Zali herself said they choose their target candidates and sitting members based on issues, not personalities.

  16. Confessions
    They altered her wiki page with some fairly revolting inclusions.
    She handled it all with real aplomb.
    I am beginning to think that she could actually be a real threat to Abbott.
    Unlike some of the other Indies, she comes across as the sort of person who easily fits in with Warringah society. Not that I would really know.

  17. Barney
    I saw the Tingle interview. The thing that was missing from the segment (unless I missed it – I was distracted at the time) was that the Liberals are desperate not to feed into their men problem.
    Morrison did a bit of public fretting but then wisely let poor enough alone.
    OTOH, Labor got a good day’s worth of public exposure on the issue.
    Lots of bias confirmation pro Labor.

  18. Confessions @ #1825 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 8:47 pm

    And I resent the statement from the interviewer that Advance Australia Whoevertheyare are the rightwing equivalent of GetUp. GetUp don’t smear political members and candidates with lies about their resumes or their character. Zali herself said they choose their target candidates and sitting members based on issues, not personalities.

    And, they might be in for a bit of please explaining from the AEC if they are funding specific pollies as has been claimed.

    GetUp were declared exempt from donations laws because they did not fund candidates directly.

  19. Boerwar:

    Many of my lifelong Liberal-voting family in Warringah love her. My aunt is even volunteering for her campaign!

    She seems to have touched on something in the electorate that has invigorated a hunger for change. I think voters have thought that change wasn’t possible. And then along came Vote Tony Out and Zali Steggall emerged from that.

    It’s been a very grassroots effort.

  20. Cross posting from the NSW thread, getting interesting..

    sprocket_ says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 8:52 pm
    Andrew Clennel of the SmearStralian saying

    Word is Heathcote in a bit of strife for Libs despite a margin of 7.6 per cent! Gladys robocalls going into the seat tonight

    Same in Camden The Entrance and Goulburn. Camden is on 18%

  21. Barney in Cà Mau @ #1825 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 7:49 pm

    Laura Tingle on the non-debate over Labor’s policy on abortion.

    Why conservatives are not making a fuss over Labor’s abortion policy

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/conservatives-arent-making-a-fuss-over-labors-abortion-policy/10893662

    Thanks Barney. Quick read. One take away.

    In deep political trouble, the Coalition has effectively refused to enter the debate, reluctant to be wedged so close to the election.

  22. And, they might be in for a bit of please explaining from the AEC if they are funding specific pollies as has been claimed.

    Yes that could lead to some uncomfortable questioning. It wasn’t clear from the interview whether that $400K ‘war chest’ they have is just for Warringah or for multiple electorates.

  23. Adam Bandt copping absolute shit on his twitter feed for mi squoting Bill re the schoolkids strike. Running about 90% against him – some VERY disenchanted ex-Green voters…….

  24. Boerwar

    “Sure. Sure. There will be no uranium mining at Olympic Dam. Except if you listen to the South Australian Greens who think there will be uranium mining but that the uranium, once mined, will be unmined.”

    It’s clear that you have no ability to reason when it comes to the Greens.

  25. rhwombat says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 8:41 pm
    Boerwar @ #1693 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:39 pm

    ‘Upnorth says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:33 pm

    @ Boerwar

    It was ok . A little stringy. Of course the bottle of SangSom Rum I shared beforehand may have helped my “Dutch Courage”.’

    I will disregard this obvious and casual insult to a significant part of my heritage. I am sorry to hear that the rice rat was only stringy and ok.

    I have a question: Do rice rats harbour rabies and would BBQ treatment eliminate same?

    No, and yes. Rabies, like the other 5 lyssaviruses (including Australian bat lyssavirus) is transmitted via saliva into wounds, and rats are not likely to be exposed or carry rabies. Rabies is a large virus, which is easily denatured by heat (or by gastic acid on being swallowed). Thai rats are vectors for some other interesting human diseases….
    ———————————————————————————-
    When the Upnorth family relocated to China about a decade ago we of course took our beloved family dog (she is still with us). China requires any dog that enters the PRC to be vaccinated against rabies.

    We took her to our local vet for the injection who told us it was impossible. Simply none in Australia that he knew of because of our rabies free status. Not to be deterred the vet gave her the lyssavirus (Hendra virus) vaccine which did the job. When we reached China she received a rabies vaccine and gets one every year.

    Me – I get wormed regularly – especially after eating those rats.

  26. You wouldn’t want to handle uranium – it is not the radiation which is a problem – it is actually very toxic as a heavy metal.

  27. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 8:59 pm

    Boerwar

    “Sure. Sure. There will be no uranium mining at Olympic Dam. Except if you listen to the South Australian Greens who think there will be uranium mining but that the uranium, once mined, will be unmined.”

    It’s clear that you have no ability to reason when it comes to the Greens.’

    I do my very best but the Greens make things so hard for themselves. I try to help but there is a lot of resistance to reason.
    One problem is that the Greens are never wrong about anything.
    Another problem is that they always know what they mean, even if it has to change from time to time.
    Finally, most Greens have never read the Greens policy platform and this leads them into all sorts of weird false consciousness. When the consequences are pointed out they come out with all sorts of contortions such as digging uranium from out of the ground is not really digging uranium from out of the ground.
    Anyway, I trust you enjoy the rest of your evening.

  28. B.S. Fairman @ #1845 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 8:06 pm

    You wouldn’t want to handle uranium – it is not the radiation which is a problem – it is actually very toxic as a heavy metal.

    True enough. But if you’re going to be mining stuff, you’ll be using plenty of very toxic chemicals anyways. What’s one more toxic thing in the grand scheme of things?

  29. Upnorth @ #1821 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 8:59 pm

    rhwombat says:

    When the Upnorth family relocated to China about a decade ago we of course took our beloved family dog (she is still with us). China requires any dog that enters the PRC to be vaccinated against rabies.

    We took her to our local vet for the injection who told us it was impossible. Simply none in Australia that he knew of because of our rabies free status. Not to be deterred the vet gave her the lyssavirus (Hendra virus) vaccine which did the job. When we reached China she received a rabies vaccine and gets one every year.

    Me – I get wormed regularly – especially after eating those rats.

    Um. Hendra is not a lyssavirus. Either the Oz vet got hold of some Rabies vaccine (which is made in China and only available for humans from Public Health stocks in Australia) or you were ripped off.

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