Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Rex Douglas says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 6:29 pm

    Rossmcg @ #1728 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    The smart money is on an election on either May 11 or 18, eight or nine weeks from Saturday.

    All the signs are pointing to a liberal campaign like this

    May 18th. Bookmark it.

    Thanks, Rex!

    It must be the 11th then.

  2. Haven’t had a chance to catch up with the Green Dental policy.

    However, why pay $5.8 billion for dental when you can give the same amount away as free money to wealthy retirees or piss it up against the wall to buy votes, to compare it to some other Government expenditures.

    That lots of people can’t afford dental treatment is a scandal. I can but it’s bloody expensive.

    The Greens’ plan has merit.

  3. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 6:47 pm
    ‘EB says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:58 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:40 pm

    Classic Greens self-delusion. Who are the Greens going to preference? All dressed up with nowhere to go.

    BW I am NOT a Greens voter. As I have said before I vote for Andrew Wilkie in the HOR and Labor in the Senate. I am not a “self delusion” Green but a political realist.

  4. Ex-Green Scott Ludlum and some of his followers have been crowing about Bill Shorten allegedly saying the young Climate Change strikers should do it after school.

    Through the wonders of social media, this blatant lie and verballing has been debunked in record time

  5. For what it’s worth, we should listen to the young. The future is theirs, not ours. We should do all we can to support our children. This is why we are here.

  6. ‘Steve777 says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:02 pm

    The Greens’ plan has merit.’

    It is not a plan because they cannot implement it.
    It is an announcement.
    The Greens having been announcing for 30 years. They are announcing now. They will announce for the next thirty years.
    They are the Great Announcers.
    Exactly what they announce is irrelevant.
    It is like announcing that an asteroid will miss earth.

  7. ‘Barney in Cà Mau says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:08 pm


    That refers to the Parliamentary broadcast, so the use of press photos wouldn’t be covered by that.’

    You could be right.

  8. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:06 pm
    Do stop wasting my time.

    Well that says it all. Don’t like it when the bone is pointed at you. Not surprising. Cheers.

  9. Absolutely dental should be part of Medicare.

    Labor has had several dental schemes over the years. Under Gillard, it got a scheme up with di Natale described as ‘… one of most significant reforms to the health sector since the introduction of Medicare,”

    …which of course was axed by the Coalition.

    Given Labor’s history on this issue, I’d expect to hear an announcement from it before the election.

  10. True, Boer.

    Yet we should also applaud their participation in a peaceful, cooperative protest aimed at influencing opinions on the environment. The political culture is the better for it. And we are going to need a lot more of this as time goes on. We need to encourage peaceful political expression by the young. At this time, it is all they have.

  11. ‘EB says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:13 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:06 pm
    Do stop wasting my time.

    Well that says it all. ‘


    You wank on endlessly with the Greens (and only Greens) talking points for dozens of posts and then announce that you are not really a Greens at all. We have a few posters just like you: shy Greens voters.

  12. zoomster
    The Greens have an announcement.
    Labor will have a plan.
    Labor’s Plan will happen.
    The Greens will then announce yet another triumph for the Greens.
    The Greens are so turgid: 30 years of skiving off Labor.
    No wonder their polling is in single digit figures.

  13. pica @ #1700 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:51 pm

    Can someone please remind me how to get pb comments plug-in working on my android phone? I have downloaded said add on but can’t get it working on my browser (firefox). TIA.

    I expect that you have gone to (from Firefox)

    and got to add to firefox
    and received installation complete (or similar) message.
    All good.
    Now, mon ami,

    You need to click on (poke with your finger – or one of them there little doo dah – the 3 dot thing on the right hand side – whereupon
    down the bottom of a list will appear (expand it to make it readable).
    PB Comments Plugin
    which you will also poke and then the
    C+ setup thingy will appear
    You then enter as appropriate and
    Et Voila – mon ami –
    You may need to hit the little circly doodah to get it to work.

    Forgive the dopey language. I’m half asleep.

    The time is out by an hour on my Android devices – but what do I care – LNP want to make it out about 60 years – I’m ready for them.

    See how you go. 😎

  14. EB
    And do stop with the cultural misappropriation.
    ‘Pointing the bone’ is a highly significant secret/sacred element of Indigenous culture.
    Unless you are an elder you have no right to even mention it.
    And if you are an elder you would not mention it by way of a throw away line.

  15. Sad to see Scott Ludlum take Bill Shorten out of context, and then come up with a Barnaby Joyce type response.
    Hard to find any Greens that I can respect these days.

  16. If you want to make 100% sure that the kids don’t get what they want, vote for the two perenniel global warming failure parties in Australia: the Coalition and the Greens.

  17. Ludlam is just another one of the Greens who spend their time attacking Labor.
    The sooner this motley crew of hasbeens, announcers, gunnas and coudabeens stop taking themselves seriously, the better.

  18. I know this was some pages ago…
    “In summary the argument is that it is not a uranium mine despite the fact that it produces something like 4000 tonnes of Uranium Oxide a year.
    The second argument is that it is possible to separate the uranium oxide, store in onsite and not sell it.
    The third argument is that this will not make any difference to Olympic Dam bottom line.
    Not a single Greens supporter of this policy inanity has been able to integrate the fact that a quarter of the gross income of Olympic Dam mine comes from uranium oxide sales.
    The operating costs would increase with the need to permanently and safely store tens of thousands of tonnes of uranium oxide.
    Astrobleme simply announced that Olympic Dam was very profitable.”

    well, clearly Boerwar can just make up whatever he likes.
    I never said it wasn’t a Uranium mine. I said it was a copper mine, because it is. It is the 8th largest copper mine in the world.
    I never said they would store Uranium oxide on site I said they would just not process the Uranium ore (in this case it is pitchblende). The pitchblende contains very little copper.
    As to the relative profitability,we have agreed that they will make less money, but 75% of 39 million (apparently all they made last year due to breakdowns) is still around 30 million.

    If you google it you can find studies on what the impact will be: this can be a task for interested parties.

  19. Ah the Greens…

    A former Victorian upper house MP has resigned from the Greens, saying the party has become “too toxic”.

    Samantha Dunn, who represented Eastern Metropolitan Region from 2014 until last November, posted to her Facebook page on Thursday announcing her resignation because she could no longer accept the culture in the Greens.

    “The Greens are distracted by populism, self interest, power, ego, narcissism, megalomania, appealing to narrowcast demographics and virtue signalling while exercising that old war strategy of divide and conquer,” she wrote.

    “Aversion to conflict resolution means that tensions fester, no one is ever pulled up for poor behaviours, the behaviours escalate and become legitimised because no one ever says no or stop it or that’s inappropriate.”

  20. Astrobleme

    ‘well, clearly Boerwar can just make up whatever he likes.
    I never said it wasn’t a Uranium mine. ‘

    Well, that solves the policy discussion entirely. It is Greens policy to close all uranium mines.

    In terms of profitability, the 22% of uranium sales is off the gross. Not the net.

  21. Samantha Dunn

    “The Greens are distracted by populism, self interest, power, ego, narcissism, megalomania, appealing to narrowcast demographics and virtue signalling while exercising that old war strategy of divide and conquer,” she wrote.

    That is not Dutton talking about the Greens!

  22. So let me get this straight

    Shorten repeats what the Liberals say calling it out as a bit rich – and the Greens jump all over him saying he said it leaving out Shorten saying it was a bit rich

    Says it all really

    What they should have done is supported Shorten in calling the Liberal Party out over their comment

    But that is obviously too much to expect

    Hopefully these idealogs, believing that debt and deficits do not matter because you just print more money, are wiped out in May

  23. “In terms of profitability, the 22% of uranium sales is off the gross. Not the net.”

    So I guess it will be less of the net then…

  24. Just brilliant! 😆

    Michael Pascoe
    Anyone have a Venn diagram of people attacking kids taking day off school to protest and people happy to take kids out of school for cheaper airfare on holidays?

  25. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:54 pm

    “In terms of profitability, the 22% of uranium sales is off the gross. Not the net.”

    So I guess it will be less of the net then…’

    Uh huh. It is just that you were the one whinging about making up facts.

    Nobody wants to close Olympic Dam because it produces copper so the copper production is totally irrelevant.

    The Greens policy is to close down uranium mines. Olympic Dam is a uranium mine. I note, before you self-detonate again, that the Australian Greens and the South Australian Greens have conflicting policies on this matter. How that would play out in the real world, who knows. I bet the Greens don’t.

  26. ‘Astrobleme says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 7:57 pm

    Oh wait but look. BHP never undertook that expansion’

    I knew that but I was allowing you your own facts. There was a discussion on Bludger way back about just why the expansion was not going ahead. It is a long time ago but I believe the discussion involved the phenomenal amounts of diesel required for the expansion.

  27. Boerwar

    “The Greens policy is to close down uranium mines. Olympic Dam is a uranium mine.”

    You are an idiot.
    It has been pointed out to your previously that the Greens would not shut it down.
    Why do you persist with this stupidity.

  28. So, looking at the Greens policies, they are going to close down Australia’s cotton industry, Olympic Dam mine and reduce the ADF to a ‘Light Mobile Force’.

    Of course if they don’t really intend to do all these three things, they could say so.

    And if they DO intend to do all these three things they should just say so – instead of all this legerdemain policy doublespeak.

    But maybe the real trouble is that they have policies with these consequences and don’t even realize those consequences.

  29. Tbf to Abbott and the tunnel, he might be campaigning for the state election where it is an issue.
    I don’t doubt he is desperate though, and will probably still campaign on it after the state election.
    This is the problem with Morrison not going early, the Liberal state government is definitely going to lose votes due to dissatisfaction with the federal government.

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