Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Upnorth says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:29 pm

    @ Barney

    Talking of rabbits – I was up country (Thailand) in the North East last month. BBQ Rice Rat was the local speciality. Could say it tasted like Chicken but all this talk of rabbit makes me think along that line.

    Similar dishes over Vietnam way?

    Not in restaurants that I’ve seen, although last time I was here in Ca Mau there were some women selling rats in the market. I haven’t seen them this time.

    I remember an article in the Phnom Penh Post a number of years back saying the market price for rat meat had exploded due an illness causing a shortage of local pork.

    It seems to be a feature of poorer regions and Ca Mau has grown rapidly since I was here 4 years ago, so that trade has probably been pushed to the outer markets.

  2. Can someone please remind me how to get pb comments plug-in working on my android phone? I have downloaded said add on but can’t get it working on my browser (firefox). TIA.

  3. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:40 pm
    EB
    Why do you persist in the Greens phantasmagorical notion that they make a difference in the face of thirty years of evidence to the contrary?

    – Reject the Green voters preferences in your electorate then get back to me BW. Until then I won’t provide you another vehicle for your anti- Greens rhetoric. Cheers.

  4. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:39 pm
    ‘Upnorth says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:33 pm

    @ Boerwar

    It was ok . A little stringy. Of course the bottle of SangSom Rum I shared beforehand may have helped my “Dutch Courage”.’

    I will disregard this obvious and casual insult to a significant part of my heritage. I am sorry to hear that the rice rat was only stringy and ok.

    I have a question: Do rice rats harbour rabies and would BBQ treatment eliminate same?
    ———————————————————————————-
    Well I’m told there is Dutch heritage on Upnorths’ mothers side so no offence given.

    Like any mammal I guess Rabies is possible in Rice Rats. Not sure about cooking – some more medically learned PB’ers may know. Usually I do stick to chicken but when in Rome.

    There was a Rabies outbreak in Thailand last year. Some Water Buffalo died as result. Unfortunately one was dug up after its burial by some villagers and consumed. There were no reports of subsequent infection. However all concerned were treated with the Rabies vaccine.

  5. If they preference Labor, they are actually Labor votes. Greens can’t direct preferences because the voters ignore them. Around 80% come to Labor regardless of Greens Party shenanigans.

  6. nath says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:02 pm
    The reason whole electorates that were formerly held by the ALP are now Greens territory is because of the line up of ALP right wing crooks, con men, prisoners, Murdoch stooges and general miscreants.

    Flattery will get you nowhere…

  7. BW said..

    The Government seems to be running out of hands with their messaging about the economy.

    On the one hand the economy is stuttering.
    On the other hand they want to claim that they are good economic managers.
    On the third hand they want to pump prime the economy.
    On the fourth hand they want to frighten the punters about how Labor will make the economy worse.
    —————-_———————————————-

    They want to change hands

  8. How the real world works: – politicians and industry lobbyists hand-in-hand:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/epa-scraps-carbon-emssions-guidelines-for-wa-resources-projects/10901574

    The Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) has withdrawn its contentious guidelines requiring major WA resources projects to completely offset their greenhouse gas emissions.

    Top executives from some of the world’s biggest resources companies met Premier Mark McGowan this morning to voice their strong opposition to the environmental watchdog’s recommendations.

    Mr McGowan rang the EPA’s chairman Tom Hatton after the meeting to discuss industry’s concerns.

    He said shortly afterwards, the EPA informed him it would be withdrawing the guidelines while it consulted further with industry.

    Mr McGowan denied the move would create more uncertainty for industry during the consultation period, or that he pressured Dr Hatton to make the move.

  9. Sending Michaelia Cash to help out with a struggling seat campaign would have to be one step away from raising the white flag, surely.

    I guess every everybody else was busy.

  10. ” Get back to me when you do reject Green preferences otherwise you remain vulnerable to trolling accusations, right or wrong.”

    EB, thats silly. Particularly with reference to the Greens who as a party seem to me to have less influence than most on how thier voters allocate preferences.

  11. Also telling that Alan Tudge, that inspirational hunk of charisma, was trotted out in Tony Abbott’s electorate to stand on a road and whinge about no billion dollar tunnel up to the Northern Beaches.

    In the past, Abbott would have been in Tudge’s electorate, raising his profile

  12. Pegasus @ #1710 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 6:11 pm

    How the real world works: – politicians and industry lobbyists hand-in-hand:

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/epa-scraps-carbon-emssions-guidelines-for-wa-resources-projects/10901574

    he Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) has withdrawn its contentious guidelines requiring major WA resources projects to completely offset their greenhouse gas emissions.

    Top executives from some of the world’s biggest resources companies met Premier Mark McGowan this morning to voice their strong opposition to the environmental watchdog’s recommendations.

    Mr McGowan rang the EPA’s chairman Tom Hatton after the meeting to discuss industry’s concerns.

    He said shortly afterwards, the EPA informed him it would be withdrawing the guidelines while it consulted further with industry.

    Mr McGowan denied the move would create more uncertainty for industry during the consultation period, or that he pressured Dr Hatton to make the move.

    It’s just so disappointing.

    WA Labor partisans, what you say …?

  13. And here’s the ERA’s response which somehow Peg missed. 🙂

    Further discussion merited’: EPA
    The EPA released a statement acknowledging uncertainty within industry over the scrapped changes.

    “The EPA also appreciates that further discussion is merited to ensure that industry and stakeholders can anticipate how such guidelines can apply to proposals,” the statement said.

    But the watchdog maintained it was necessary for Western Australia to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.

    “Nor do we resile from our absolute right and obligation to provide advice to the Government on these matters,” the statement said.

    “However, it is important that the detail of such advice is more fully developed and the practical applications are well understood.

    “As a result, the EPA will be undertaking further consultation with industry and stakeholders to ensure these guidelines can be practically implemented and that they are fully complementary to Commonwealth regulation.”

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-14/epa-scraps-carbon-emssions-guidelines-for-wa-resources-projects/10901574

  14. Scott ignoring the obvious on a just working wage.
    He seems to think the only result of increasing the base wage is reduction in nett working hours, rather than a reduction in profit.
    It also ignores the likely side effect that increased wages will result in an increase in spending offsetting losses by employers.Given that those at the bottom can’t afford to save.

  15. Notwithstanding the singular paucity of comity between Labor and Greens supporting Bludgers here, I proffer the following from Labor’s HTV sheet for the Pre-Poll centre in Wollongong.

    Legislative Council (upper House) preference order:

    1 Labor/Country Labor
    2 The Greens
    3 Animal Justice Party
    4 Keep Sydney Open
    5 Voluntary Euthanasia Party

    As a Labor leftie veteran of the Punic Wars, I’ve enjoyed the society of numerous Greens folk at our pre-poll centre. In contrast, Liberal folk in this neck of the woods are not, as such, easy to establish even a superficial rapport with. To borrow a question from another Prof. (Julius Sumner Miller), Why is it so? 🙂

  16. And once again a government back-down in the face of a powerful lobby group – mortgage brokers.

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/mar/14/powerful-lobbyists-protect-mortgage-brokers-against-the-interests-of-the-community

    In handing down his final report of the royal commission into misconduct in the banking, superannuation and financial services industry, justice Kenneth Hayne warned that industries would cry “unintended consequences” as soon as they saw his blueprint for reform.

    Hayne knew this would happen because it has happened before. Every previous attempt at reform in financial services has been undermined in this way. Governments often start out with good intentions but the industry fear campaigns, backed by slick lobbying behind closed doors, leave us with laws that are too weak to make a real difference.

    Within hours of the final report being released, the mortgage broking lobbyists were out in force claiming that interest rates would skyrocket, that any change to their sector would kill competition and deliver a win to the big banks. And as predicted, they took no time to lean on the vague but ominous claim of “unintended consequences”.

    These claims are nothing but a carefully orchestrated campaign to kill off reforms that would harm the interests of large broking businesses.
    :::
    In the face of all this history and clear evidence of a market riddled with conflicts, Canberra has capitulated to lobbyists once again. For a while, the government looked like it would act on the royal commission’s recommendation to end trailing commissions but on Tuesday the treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, backflipped under pressure from industry lobbying.

  17. The Morrison brand is badged with a lump of coal. I hope Labor use the footage of the Lib front bench waving coal around, jeering and sneering.

  18. Can a potato poo it’s pants?

    Dutton is wondering how it came to this. Roared on by SkyFoxNews and RatbagRadio he came within 6 votes of the Lodge, Kirribilli House and C1. DuttMentum.

    Instead he is haunted by a department in dysfunctional meltdown, tracking polls saying he is rooted in Dickson, and to rub salt into the French Fry, his own leader, his soul mate, the ever loyal Scomo has shafted him by looking for another Home Affairs uniformed leader.

    Home Affairs. I hope the he enjoys the pivot to Home Duties.

  19. Shorten on the school strike for climate action

    https://www.9news.com.au/2019/03/14/12/12/school-strike-for-climate-action-bill-shorten-climate-change-politics-news

    Children should protest on weekends or after school rather than participating in tomorrow’s walkout over climate change, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said.

    Tomorrow thousands of students from across the country are expected to leave school to demonstrate against government inaction on global warming.

    But Mr Shorten was not in favour of the school strike.

  20. It is interesting how details of the mortgage broker lobbying was revealed to several journalists, there is also an article in the SMH on the successful outcome, for the lobbyists that is.
    I thought an important part of the process was to make sure it isn’t publisced.

  21. Rex…..WA Labor rank-and-file opinion is in favour of strong action to mitigate GHG emissions and, in general, to respond to the threats of climate change. This issue is live in the Party. The Left are in favour of more assertive policy. The Right are divided, but are by no means all hostile to the Left views. There is very widespread member support for policy revision and for this to translate into government action. There is a well-worn process to be followed. We will get there…but it may not be any kind of picnic.

  22. The Kid’s Strike is a Culture War By Blow much loved by the Greens and the Sky After Dark Crew because they can fulminate with a passion about nothing at all.

    Bottom line, the Kids Strike makes no real difference which is why, I assume, the Greens are attracted to it.

  23. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 6:21 pm
    briefly
    I have a feeling that Standing Orders prevents parliamentary footage from being used in that way.

    Then they could photo-shop it….

  24. briefly @ #1727 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 6:25 pm

    Rex…..WA Labor rank-and-file opinion is in favour of strong action to mitigate GHG emissions and, in general, to respond to the threats of climate change. This issue is live in the Party. The Left are in favour of more assertive policy. The Right are divided, but are by no means all hostile to the Left views. There is very widespread member support for policy revision and for this to translate into government action. There is a well-worn process to be followed. We will get there…but it may not be any kind of picnic.

    Nero would be proud…

  25. School Strike for Climate Action:

    Who is attending?

    School students, their parents and friends. Faith and human rights groups will attend, along with representatives for the health sector.

    More than 20 unions have endorsed the strike, including the Australian Education Union, the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union and United Voice.

    Eight hundred academics have expressed solidarity for the students. The 2019 Australian of the Year, Craig Challen, wrote this week that he felt it was his duty to support the students. He will attend the strike in Sydney.

  26. Rex….I’m not any kind of Caesar…more a lowly slave…we all have to do what we can do…I am not alone and will do my best…that is all I expect of myself or anyone else…

  27. Pegasus @ #1724 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 6:23 pm

    Shorten on the school strike for climate action

    https://www.9news.com.au/2019/03/14/12/12/school-strike-for-climate-action-bill-shorten-climate-change-politics-news

    Children should protest on weekends or after school rather than participating in tomorrow’s walkout over climate change, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten said.

    Tomorrow thousands of students from across the country are expected to leave school to demonstrate against government inaction on global warming.

    But Mr Shorten was not in favour of the school strike.

    …and in contrast I give you Sally McManus

    Good luck to all the kids striking tomorrow. You have a right to strike. This is the way we can stand up to the powerful. There needs to be a just transition for workers otherwise our lives & communities will be their last consideration #ClimateStrike— Sally McManus (@sallymcmanus) March 14, 2019

  28. The Drum is now discussing the implications of the High Court decision on restitution payments for damage to native title in relation to Timber Creek.

    The flow on impacts across Australia are potentially absolutely huge.

  29. Incontrast to CH9 report, this is what Shorten said.

    Joan of Bot

    Totally out of context. Shorten ACTUALLY said:
    “Kids are allowed to have an opinion, IN AN IDEAL WORLD, they’d protest after school & on weekends. It’s a bit rich for the govt. to lecture schoolkids. This govt’s been on strike about climate policy for the last 5 & 1/2 years,”

    Just repeated on The Drum.

  30. Greensborough Growler says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 6:07 pm
    If they preference Labor, they are actually Labor votes. Greens can’t direct preferences because the voters ignore them. Around 80% come to Labor regardless of Greens Party shenanigans.


    GG you are overlooking the first step, the PV. 100% of Greens voters put the Green first for myriad reasons I dare not categorise as ‘Anti-Labor’ voters or ‘Pro Labor voters’ but GREENS voters. My point is 80% give Labor their preference flows but it is not necessarily a Labor vote by proxy.

    The Greens are slipping on PV to the point where, for example, McKim may not get back after the 2019 election in Tasmania, the NSW Greens are facing a splinter post election, RDN can’t manage the infighting in Victoria and SHY keeps trying to undermine RDNs leadership from SA. Yes they are a mess.

    On the other hand, they will maintain a significant influence in the Senate [BW seems to forget the legislation like the medivac BILL has to pass two houses not one] for at least another two elections and Shorten will need to form an informal voting bloc with the Greens and Centre Alliance to control the Senate. [See Kevin Bonham’s assessment].

    I comment on a political reality that says they are not LABOR votes, they are in fact GREENS votes in the first place and that is why 9 Greens Senators were elected in 2016 from memory. I do not say my view is right, but it is my position on the matter and I will say what I think about. That is my democratic right as it is yours.

  31. lizzie @ #1739 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:37 pm

    Incontrast to CH9 report, this is what Shorten said.

    Joan of Bot

    Totally out of context. Shorten ACTUALLY said:
    “Kids are allowed to have an opinion, IN AN IDEAL WORLD, they’d protest after school & on weekends. It’s a bit rich for the govt. to lecture schoolkids. This govt’s been on strike about climate policy for the last 5 & 1/2 years,”

    Just repeated on The Drum.

    Thanks lizzie. There’s a subtle dig in there too about the government being basically on strike at the moment, with all the non-sitting they’re doing.

  32. Observer @ #1669 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 2:13 pm

    DG

    I utilize Vanguard (both Conservative and Growth) and Black Rock (Tactical Growth).

    I maintain data now going back over 20 years and which, from 2006, includes the merger with Merrill Lynch

    You are wrong.

    Over that period Schroder Balanced has been the best performing Fund, followed by Black Rock.

    I assume you are a “Greens” supporter because it is that obvious.

    Out of interest, I note that you post at 3:46PM on a Thursday (at least)

    Well, when I was in the workforce the last thing I would have had time for is posting on a site such as this in the mid-afternoon on a weekday.

    And, in my life as a full time parent, 3:46PM would have seen me collecting my children from school.

    So, apart from spending your life putting rubbish on a site such as this to falsely denigrate, what exactly do you do with your life – leading to being an Aged Pensioner, no doubt?

    I would also add that Black Rock is described as the world’s largest asset manager with over $6 Trillion in assets under management.

    Larry Fink is the Chairman and CEO

    Again, who are you?

    Gods, there is just so many things wrong with this post I hardly know where to start.

    I am not, and have never been a Greens supporter, apart from in the past putting them second on the Senate ticket. I, along with a growing number of posters are just getting sick of the bullshit being peddled on this site.

    And the reason I can post on here at 3.46PM, or even 3.46AM is because I am self-employed, for want of a better term. I am also nowhere near old enough to be a pensioner either.

    So what about Black Rock being the biggest fund manager in the world. The Commonwealth Bank is the biggest bank in Australia, but I wouldn’t give them any of my money. If you knew anything about the funds management industry (which I do having worked as an investment analyst within it for over 15 years), you’d know that the bigger a fund gets the less likely it is to outperform the respective index. They simply cannot move that amount of money around without it creating ripples. Plus they can’t take a meaningful stake in small and micro-cap companies where the real out-performance lies. Even if they do, their stake in these companies will have absolutely bugger all effect on the total fund’s performance.

    I’ll give you an example.

    Say there’s a fund worth $1 billion. A new company gets listed in the ASX (or Nasdaq, or LSE or any other bourse) worth $10 million. The funds have limits on how much they can invest in any one company, usually 5% of the issued shares in that company. That means that the fund could invest a total of $500k in that company. That would represent 0.05% of the fund. Now, let’s say the shares in the company rise tenfold (which can does happen at the small and micro-cap end of the market). The fund’s stake in the company now represents 0.5% of the fund. If everything else in the fund’s portfolio stays flat, the effect on the funds returns is minimal. If every other investment the fund owns goes backwards, the whole effect of the tenfold rise is completely neutered. If everything else rises, the effect of the tenfold rise won’t even be noticed.

    It’s for this reason that veteran fund managers like Peter Lynch, author of “One Up On Wall Street”* state that the small investor has a huge advantage over the mega-funds. It’s also the reason why the stellar performances of Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway occurred in its earlier years, and have been good, but not spectacular ever since.

    20 years worth of data, eh? I maintain (on a daily basis) data going back to the formation of the ASX, when the six separate exchanges (Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide and Hobart) merged together to form one single national market. This occurred on the 31st of December 1979 when the All Ordinaries Index was set at 500, and the Accumulation (Total Return) Index was set at 1,000. So, at the end of this year I’ll have 40 years of data on the ASX as a whole. I also maintain (once again on a daily basis) similar data and charts on all 45 of the companies in my portfolio. This data is from the time the company was first listed on the ASX as none of them were around in 1979.

    In case you’re wondering, as at close of trade today, the All Ords closed at 6,266.79, and the Accumulation (Total Return) Index closed at 64,292.99. That represents a compounding rate of return for the All Ords of 6.61% p.a., and 11.20% p.a. for the Accumulation Index. As most of my portfolio is outside of the ASX200 (the 200 biggest companies on the ASX), I’ve never bothered to track that particular index as it’s meaningless as a measuring stick against my portfolio.

    Oh, and BTW, I did not say Black Rock was a dud fund manager, I said they were pretty ordinary, in that they haven’t managed to “beat the index” significantly. I have outlined above why the sheer size of the fund is the predominant reason behind their “ordinariness”.

    For people who don’t trust their own judgement, or don’t have the time or inclination to monitor and manage their own portfolio, Black Rock is as good a place as any to park your money. But remember, they may do better than most other managers (which they have done thus far), over the long term they are never going to outperform the Index by a substantial amount. The real outperforming funds have been the smaller “boutique” funds who specialise in investing in small and micro-cap companies. For the reasons also outlined above, a fund the size of Black Rock, or any other fund of a comparable size, simply cannot invest in these companies in any meaningful way.

    * A book everyone who has an interest in investing should read, nay, MUST read.

  33. ‘EB says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:58 pm

    Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:40 pm
    EB
    Why do you persist in the Greens phantasmagorical notion that they make a difference in the face of thirty years of evidence to the contrary?

    – Reject the Green voters preferences in your electorate then get back to me BW. Until then I won’t provide you another vehicle for your anti- Greens rhetoric. Cheers.’

    Classic Greens self-delusion. Who are the Greens going to preference? All dressed up with nowhere to go.

  34. Rex Douglas @ #1674 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:25 pm

    Still no actual critique of the Greens Party dental policy…?

    C’mon you you Labor partisans… step up !!

    Why bother? It is of academic interest only, and probably even then only to voters who intend to vote Green, and not to those who intend to vote for a party that can actually form government and implement a policy.

    The Greens should stick to Environmental issues. They might gain some traction.

  35. On the subject of Greens’ preferences, for posters who don’t think much of the attitudes of some of the ALP zealots here, and you find them to be representative of ALP values and culture generally, remember you can withhold your preferences from
    the ALP in the Senate and still cast a valid vote. All you need to do is vote for at least 1-12 below the line and in your State you may have a range of electable progressive Senate candidates from parties other than the ALP. Of course you need to take care that you don’t inadvertently assist election of candidates from parties less desirable than the ALP but depending on the Senate ticket in your State this strategy may be viable.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *