Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Another pollster finds an incremental movement to Labor, and gives Bill Shorten an improved set of personal ratings.

The latest fortnightly result from Essential Research follows Newspoll in recording a one-point move to Labor, who now lead 53-47 on two-party preferred. As reported by The Guardian, the primary votes have the Coalition down a point to 37%, Labor up a point to 38%, the Greens down a point to 8% (their weakest result in any poll since September 2016) and One Nation up a point to 7%. The pollster’s leadership ratings (which they normally do monthly, but this is the first set since January) have Scott Morrison steady on 43% approval and up two on disapproval to 41%, Bill Shorten up three to 38% and down three to 44%, and Morrison’s lead as preferred prime minister at 44-31, compared with 42-30 last time.

Other findings relate to climate change and asylum seekers. On the former cont, 62% express belief in climate change caused by human activity, and 51% say Australia is not doing enough to address it. On the latter, 52% believed the government was acting out of genuine concern in reopening Christmas Island while 48% said it was a political ploy (suggesting there was no uncommitted option, which would be unusual for Essential). Also featured was an occasion suite of questions on best party to handle various issues, which seems to have produced typical results, with the Coalition stronger on broader protection and economic management and Labor stronger on the environment, wages, health and education, as well as housing affordability. The full report should be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1089.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,959 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

  1. Simon² Katich® says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 4:45 pm

    The cut-thru with the Liblings is very simple.

    briefly, I swear, if I hear the word Libling again then the cute little bunny will die!
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqWq0sQj-AQ

    😆

    I didn’t know you had a rabbit farm!

    You’re going to be eating a lot of rabbit I suspect.

    By the way, I agree, boring as tofu. 🙂

  2. Triguboff sues NSW Premier
    Supplied Real Estate APARTMENT PRICES WILL RISE SAYS HARRY
    TURI CONDON
    Harry Triguboff has launched legal action against Gladys Berejiklian in a bid to have a Sydney tower approved

  3. Michaelia Cash
    ‏@SenatorCash

    Great to talk to Lisa from Party Help party planning, with Senator James Paterson and @KateAshmor – Liberal for Macnamara, at the Macnamara Small Business Fair in Melbourne today.

    I understand the Libs’ campaign in Macnamara is in trouble, so it’s good they’ve got Michaelia on the case.

  4. The reason whole electorates that were formerly held by the ALP are now Greens territory is because of the line up of ALP right wing crooks, con men, prisoners, Murdoch stooges and general miscreants.

  5. EB says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 4:51 pm

    And I believe in Santa Clauss.

    If that makes you happy fine, but it doesn’t change what the test is.

  6. Scott @ #1618 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 3:19 pm

    imacca says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 2:44 pm
    ok guys. I have been maintaining the opinion that the chances of an ALP win in the NSW election are pretty slim. That said i have not a lot of interest of knowledge on NSW state politics, me Federal focused.

    ——————

    Like with Territory , state and federal elections , the libs/nats are very very unlikely to win with a combined primary of 40% or below

    There is a level of interest around the idea of 88% of Australians governed by Labor at both State and Federal levels. At the state level Labor governs Vic (25%), Qld (20%), and WA (11%). Adding NSW (32%) would make it close to 9 out of 10 Australians, and of course all but the two smaller States.

  7. imacca says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 4:38 pm
    On the Greens

    Around 80% who vote Green will preference ALP ahead of Coalition. And, from a Greens voter its where they preference ALP vs Lib that is pretty much their vote on who they want to be the party of Govt. So, only 20% or so of Greens voters prefer the Coalition as the party to form Government.

    Indeed. I don’t hear BW or Briefly rejecting Greens preferences that contributed to 55 of the 69 ALP seats won in 2016 or saying ‘No thanks, we will give that seat back to the Coalition because the Greens preferences got the ALP over the line” in 2019. Most of their complaints about the Greens on PB appear to be poorly camouflaged trolling.

  8. The Government seems to be running out of hands with their messaging about the economy.

    On the one hand the economy is stuttering.
    On the other hand they want to claim that they are good economic managers.
    On the third hand they want to pump prime the economy.
    On the fourth hand they want to frighten the punters about how Labor will make the economy worse.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/wall-street-journal/budget-cash-splash-could-cut-through-economic-gloom/news-story/76ab6d7023f2b9d937b82fa428e921c0

  9. citizen @ #1635 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 4:37 pm

    “It is understood Mr Morrison made a forceful pitch to recruit Mr Kaldas at a face-to-face meeting the week before last, and in subsequent phone calls.
    They discussed the former cop’s national security credentials, particularly in light of the possibility that Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton will lose his marginal seat of Dickson at the election.”

    Dutton must be really pleased that Morrison has such great faith in him retaining Dickson!

    Who leaked that conversation and why?

  10. EB
    Was that a demand, an argument, an announcement, a proposal or a pretence? Come back to me when the Greens have done something real.

  11. Michaelia Cash
    ‏@SenatorCash

    Great to talk to Lisa from Party Help

    😆 Sorry Michaelia , it’s not the sort of help your party needs.

  12. It’s probably a good time for the Federal Treasurer to invest enough taxpayers’ money with the bookies to narrow the differential between the Coalition and Labor. It might boost their confidence a bit!

    Labor 1.14, Coalition 5.00 on Sportsbet; Ladbrokes similar.

  13. William Bowe says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:01 pm
    Michaelia Cash
    ‏@SenatorCash

    Great to talk to Lisa from Party Help party planning, with Senator James Paterson and @KateAshmor – Liberal for Macnamara, at the Macnamara Small Business Fair in Melbourne today.

    I understand the Libs’ campaign in Macnamara is in trouble, so it’s good they’ve got Michaelia on the case.

    I love it when our fearless leader shows his cynical side :D. I th0ught she was in witness protection on Christmas Island with Peter Dutton and Melissa Price till he got his Border Protection team to bust him out and get him back to the mainland to try and save his seat today.

  14. DG

    I utilize Vanguard (both Conservative and Growth) and Black Rock (Tactical Growth).

    I maintain data now going back over 20 years and which, from 2006, includes the merger with Merrill Lynch

    You are wrong.

    Over that period Schroder Balanced has been the best performing Fund, followed by Black Rock.

    I assume you are a “Greens” supporter because it is that obvious.

    Out of interest, I note that you post at 3:46PM on a Thursday (at least)

    Well, when I was in the workforce the last thing I would have had time for is posting on a site such as this in the mid-afternoon on a weekday.

    And, in my life as a full time parent, 3:46PM would have seen me collecting my children from school.

    So, apart from spending your life putting rubbish on a site such as this to falsely denigrate, what exactly do you do with your life – leading to being an Aged Pensioner, no doubt?

    I would also add that Black Rock is described as the world’s largest asset manager with over $6 Trillion in assets under management.

    Larry Fink is the Chairman and CEO

    Again, who are you?

  15. I’m pretty sure that no Party has any control over how preferences are allocated by voters and they certainly don’t have any say in how votes are counted. 🙂

  16. This is quite an interesting article about some of the potential consequences inside the Vatican from the Babarin and Pell convictions.

    The article posits that the convictions may be able to do what other processes have failed to do. The Vatican part of the RCC has been able to absorb resignations of Cardinals and the fact that other Cardinals are travelling under what might generously be called a protection racket cloud. In Sydney tabloid parlance, there are more than a few colourful Cardinal identities on the loose.

    But this article sets out some potential consequences of the convictions which would be a step change more dangerous than the resignations.

    https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/the-times/cardinal-george-pell-sentencing-could-be-start-of-something-cataclysmic-for-catholic-church/news-story/4338fb790a32a42891758531d8840412

  17. Boerwar says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:09 pm
    EB
    Was that a demand, an argument, an announcement, a proposal or a pretence? Come back to me when the Greens have done something real.


    Ok, the Greens supported the Medivac Bill in the Senate and HOR, the Greens helped Labor win 55 of 69 seats in 2016 and the dental POLICY document cited earlier reads to me like a policy based on substantial research, not just a presser ‘announcement pretence’ as you have tried to frame it. But troll away my friend….facts never get in the way of a zealots world view. Have a nice day.

  18. EB
    The Greens ‘contribution’ to the Medevac Bill was one vote out of a House of 147.
    Which reminds me. How many people are off Nauru or Manus as a direct result of this one vote?
    And that is it for thirty years?
    As for Greens preferences, if there were no Greens preferences Labor would pick up that primary vote without having to have the Greens destructively pestering them all the time.

  19. Dan
    The last one who had a go at debunking the GMOs was Patrick Bateman.
    He announced that he had perused the Greens GMO policy and it said nothing about closing down the cotton industry.
    But he disappeared when I pointed out the two lines in the GMO policy which would effectively remove GMO cotton from Australia: removal of all GMOs from the environment and a total ban on gene terminator technology.
    Both are fundamental to our cotton crop.
    Over to you.

  20. @ Barney

    Talking of rabbits – I was up country (Thailand) in the North East last month. BBQ Rice Rat was the local speciality. Could say it tasted like Chicken but all this talk of rabbit makes me think along that line.

    Similar dishes over Vietnam way?

  21. Critique of a Greens policy in isolation from countervailing influences, such as the composition of the parliament, the Lower House and the Senate, plus the individual character of those Senators that a federal Labor government would have to negotiate with and likely agree to the amendments of, is basically pointless at this point in the electoral cycle.

    But hey, what else have the Greens dolts here got?

  22. Boerwar @ #1669 Thursday, March 14th, 2019 – 5:25 pm

    EB
    The Greens ‘contribution’ to the Medevac Bill was one vote out of a House of 147.
    Which reminds me. How many people are off Nauru or Manus as a direct result of this one vote?
    And that is it for thirty years?
    As for Greens preferences, if there were no Greens preferences Labor would pick up that primary vote without having to have the Greens destructively pestering them all the time.

    If by ‘destructively’ you mean campaigning against the Labor rights lurch into neo-liberalism and environmental/humanitarian vandalism, then that is a badge of honour.

  23. @ Boerwar

    It was ok . A little stringy. Of course the bottle of SangSom Rum I shared beforehand may have helped my “Dutch Courage”.

  24. “I understand the Libs’ campaign in Macnamara is in trouble, so it’s good they’ve got Michaelia on the case”
    I’m sure Michaelia will find a solution with the help of a whiteboard.

  25. Speaking of Olympic Dam, Astrobleme was the champion for the Greens position.

    In summary the argument is that it is not a uranium mine despite the fact that it produces something like 4000 tonnes of Uranium Oxide a year.
    The second argument is that it is possible to separate the uranium oxide, store in onsite and not sell it.
    The third argument is that this will not make any difference to Olympic Dam bottom line.
    Not a single Greens supporter of this policy inanity has been able to integrate the fact that a quarter of the gross income of Olympic Dam mine comes from uranium oxide sales.
    The operating costs would increase with the need to permanently and safely store tens of thousands of tonnes of uranium oxide.
    Astrobleme simply announced that Olympic Dam was very profitable.

    Some debunking.

  26. The Greens do not ‘own’ the votes they’re given. If voters want to give their second preference to Labor, that isn’t a ‘gift’ from the Greens – it is a decision made by individual voters.

    Sophie Mirabella made this kind of argument, saying that the Nationals were responsible for her loss because their voters didn’t preference her. It’s a very arrogant attitude.

  27. As for the Greens ‘debunking’ of the Light Mobile Force, no-one has even tried. That term is the Greens policy term.
    It is kamikaze stuff.

    So, there we have it. Three Greens policy pronouncements. Each of them filled with confusion, deceit and a casual disregard for the real world consequences.

  28. As for Greens preferences, if there were no Greens preferences Labor would pick up that primary vote without having to have the Greens destructively pestering them all the time.


    That comment clearly demonstrates the mythology of your approach to the Greens. Diversity is here to stay in Australian politics and I welcome it. You can wish all you like for the RED v BLUE politics of the 70’s to be revived all you like, but it is NOT going to happen. Last time I looked Australia was a democracy not a duopoly. Are you going to reject Greens preferences in the seat/seats you are canvassing ? No. Get back to me when you do reject Green preferences otherwise you remain vulnerable to trolling accusations, right or wrong.

  29. ‘Upnorth says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:33 pm

    @ Boerwar

    It was ok . A little stringy. Of course the bottle of SangSom Rum I shared beforehand may have helped my “Dutch Courage”.’

    I will disregard this obvious and casual insult to a significant part of my heritage. I am sorry to hear that the rice rat was only stringy and ok.

    I have a question: Do rice rats harbour rabies and would BBQ treatment eliminate same?

  30. EB
    Why do you persist in the Greens phantasmagorical notion that they make a difference in the face of thirty years of evidence to the contrary?

  31. zoomster says:
    Thursday, March 14, 2019 at 5:37 pm
    The Greens do not ‘own’ the votes they’re given. If voters want to give their second preference to Labor, that isn’t a ‘gift’ from the Greens – it is a decision made by individual voters.

    Sophie Mirabella made this kind of argument, saying that the Nationals were responsible for her loss because their voters didn’t preference her. It’s a very arrogant attitude.

    I agree: I will reframe it to GREENS voters who preferenced Labor ahead of the Coalition in 55 seats.

  32. Thank god (well AR anyway) there’s a foolproof method of never again having to see the word “libling”, or read claims about how Olympic Dam is going to be closed down.

    A big black scary monster will eat you!

  33. Over on Speers they are fulminating about the kids Global Warming day off school. In fact, Sky has spent far more time fulminating about culture war stuff vaguely associated with Global Warming than it has with Global Warming itself.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *