The BludgerTrack poll aggregate, updated with this week’s results from Newspoll and Essential Research, remains unimpressed with much of the recent opinion poll commentary, maintaining a slow trend back to the Coalition that appears to go back to December. The movement since last week on two-party preferred is negligible, with a weak result for the Coalition cancelling out a somewhat stronger one from Essential Research, converting into a one-seat gain for the Coalition on the seat projection. Newspoll provides new numbers for the leadership ratings trends, which are all but unchanged. Full details on the link below.
Other news:
• The Guardian reports uComms/ReachTEL polls for GetUp! conducted on Thursday found independent Zali Steggall leading Tony Abbott 57-43 in Warringah, while Labor’s Ali France led Peter Dutton 52-48 in Dickson. The poll also found majority support for the medical evacuations bill in both electorates.
• Following Julie Bishop’s retirement announcement, Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Bishop’s hope of anointing her own successor in Curtin is likely to be scotched by her opponents, most notably Mathias Cormann. Bishop has reportedly been pushing for Erin Watson-Lynn, 33-year-old director of Asialink Diplomacy at the University of Melbourne. However, a highly fancied rival has emerged this week in Celia Hammond, who resigned on Monday as vice-chancellor at Notre Dame University. Hammond’s social conservatism is noted in a further report in The Australian today, relating a speech from 2013 in which she “railed against sex before marriage and contraception, while arguing against ‘militant feminism’”.
• A Liberal preselection vote on Saturday to choose Michael Keenan’s successor in the Perth northern suburbs seat of Stirling was won by Vince Connelly, risk management adviser at Woodside and former army officer. This was despite the wish of local party heavyweights Mathias Cormann and Peter Collier, along with Keenan himself, for the seat to go to a woman – specifically Joanne Quinn, legal counsel at Edith Cowan University. Quinn was in fact knocked out in the early rounds, together with Georgina Fraser, business development manager with a subsidiary of Kleenheat Gas, and Taryn Houghton, manager with a mental health support not-for-profit. Connelly prevailed in the final round over Michelle Sutherland, high school teacher, Bayswater councillor and wife of former state MP Michael Sutherland. His win out of an otherwise all-female field of five excited much commentary about the Liberal Party’s deficiencies in preselecting women, including my own analysis in Crikey on Monday.
• Sighs of relief could be heard from the Liberal hierarchy the following day when the preselection to replace Kelly O’Dwyer in Higgins was won by Katie Allen, paediatrician and unsuccessful candidate for Prahran at the state election in November. Allen prevailed in the final round with 158 votes to 116 for a male rival, Greg Hannan, former state party vice-president and factional moderate who ran against Michael Kroger for the presidency. Excluded after the penultimate round was Zoe McKenzie, “a non-executive director of the NBN board and former chief of staff to Abbott/Turnbull government trade minister Andrew Robb”.
I’d be interested in getting the thoughts of my fellow Bludgers on L/NP campaign strategy.
We’re currently a maximum of about five weeks away from the formal start of the election campaign, and a maximum ten weeks away from election day. I live in Pearce (WA) and spend time driving through the marginal seats of Hasluck, Cowan, Swan and Canning. I’m well aware of ALP efforts in those seats, and despite paying attention closely, have yet to see any material Liberal party electioneering.
I would have thought that it would be critical for the Liberal Party to have it’s marginal seat campaigns up and running well in advance of the election being called, particularly as the Labor Party has been campaigning hard in the 5 WA seats it considers to be winnable in WA.
Getting your campaign machine up and running, then tweaking it so that it is running efficiently and effectively is not something that can be done under the pressure of an election campaign. I’m beginning to think the Liberals have thrown in the towel in the most marginal WA seats.
I’d appreciate the thoughts of others.
Bushfire Bill says:
Nath-thing’s remark this afternoon canvassing castrating Pell is a case in point.
____________________________
I’ll just say that what I said was that banning religions was impossible but castrating them by taking away their tax exempt status and their control over education would be a good outcome.
I made no mention of Pell or of castrating Pell. Nor do I support mutilation of prisoners.
The BB-thing has gone into massive over-reach and, as often is the case, looks pretty foolish.
Boerwar – that supposed 10-2 result in first trial is ‘fake news’ put about by Pell supporters.
It has no basis in reality. Should ask her for her source.
Every person who quotes this says ‘multiple sources’ – they are all quoting each other.
Well if you watch the movie Hidden figures which was on last week
That’s the computer software she learnt when they installed the new
IBM at the time
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, March 2, 2019 at 7:58 pm
One of my absolute favourites, a land of stunning contrasts, going from lush vegetation to stark desert often in a matter of feet.
Truly amazing! 🙂
grimace @ #2100 Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 – 7:59 pm
Lies,
Throw money,
Lies,
How could you do this to me!
grimace
I spend much time working and travelling in Chisholm and Deakin in the East of Melbourne.
I think the only Liberal Party material I have seen while driving is a “Dee Ryall” billboard on a soon to be demolished building on the corner of Maroondah Highway and Heatherdale Rd (perhaps appropriate as she lost her State seat of Ringwood at last year’s election).
I have seen no sign of life any time I have gone past Michael Sukkar’s electoral office.
Rocket Rocket @ #2106 Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 – 8:05 pm
Vitcorian Libs are broke.
Rex, why did Hartcher quote Kevin Bonham in today’s article? Why does Insiders go to Aristotle when they want psephological advice? Why don’t more mainstream media outlets quote William, equal to or better than any of the other psephies plying their trade around the nation, certainly the one with the most prolific blog?
It’s because the constant shitstorm in this place – calls for castration, for example – when unmoderated, make it not quite nice enough for the bigtime media to quote.
The Nath and Mavis things are just the latest examples – slightly (but only slightly) more subtle than obvious trolls like Wayne and Dee and ESJ – of deliberate, blow-in shit-stirrers bent on causing trouble and making the place look chaotic, rather than advancing any kind of serious debate or discussion of ideas.
grimace….I’ve been wondering the same thing. I traverse Moore, Cowan, Stirling, Hasluck and Swan through each week. There’s nothing doing from the Liberals. The common story is they’re broke, which means they will be saving such thunder as they might have for the campaign proper. Of course, they have no volunteers so they can’t run a field campaign.
As well, the focus of their federal campaigning is Morrison himself and the themes that might be relevant in NSW, Qld and Victoria. This really means they have no particular WA-tuned messages. They just have nothing to run on. There would be plenty of disengaged WA voters who would barely know anything about Morrison. They are not much more than a void in many ways. If they have no messages, it’s very difficult to mount any kind of visible campaign at all.
I think the WA Liberals are going to get a huge shock….a defeat that will be comparable to the result in the State election….2PP vote 57/43….in the metro area more like 60/40, at best. They are basically invisible and inaudible.
BB-thing your assertion that William is missing out on media opportunities because of myself and Mavis is as wrong and deranged as your claims that I called for the castration of George Pell. It is a lie and yet you continue to perpetrate it. You cannot prove it because it did not happen.
Grimace,
Two points regarding the Liberal campaign.
1. They’ve got the taxpayer funded advertising going
2. They’re waiting for something big to drop in their lap to give them some chance.
Apart from that they’ve only got, Shorten, boats, boats, terrorists, unions, Shorten, terrorists, unions, …
Bushfire Bill @ #2109 Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 – 8:08 pm
Why get dragged down by the aggressive, but irrelevant.
Block em and move on.
briefly @ #2110 Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 – 5:13 pm
Looking at WA Labor emails over the last few weeks, would I be right in thinking that Labor now has Moore and Tagney in its sights?
Liberals confronting their toughest battle yet in WA
or a decade the West Australian Liberal Party was the nation’s financial and political powerhouse.
Home to two of the federal government’s most prominent and best performing ministers, Mathias Cormann and Julie Bishop, the state Liberal Party funnellehttps://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-confronting-their-toughest-battle-yet-in-wa-20190227-p510ms.htmld cash and talent to the east on the back of its political ascendancy and the largest mining boom since the 1850s.
And when Tony Abbott took power at the 2013 election, almost one in two Perth residents voted for the Liberal Party.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-confronting-their-toughest-battle-yet-in-wa-20190227-p510ms.html
Grimace @7:59
“…have yet to see any material Liberal party electioneering.”
See The Australian and your state’s edition of the Daily Rupert.
Presumably she would know a fair bit about hot air production:
The Barnett Government was much-loathed by the end of its second term and Labor scored their best win in a century in 2017. The Federal Libs are considered to be the worst Federal Government in living memory. They have almost completely discredited themselves. Combined with this, there is the customary cynicism that WA voters feel for just about every Federal Government; and there is recognition that the Liberals in WA are seriously degraded internally and out of touch. The WA Liberal Party is basically completely unsupportable and unelectable in the eyes of most WA voters. I think they are going to be obliterated. They will not be missed.
C@tmomma says:
Saturday, March 2, 2019 at 7:58 pm
I am watching an absolutely mesmerisingly beautiful show about Morocco on SBS. It’s all filmed by drone so you get a unique perspective of the country.
____________________________
Me too. Brilliant. Especially relevant because I’m off on an Intrepid tour of Morocco in a couple of months!
William is oft quoted and interviewed on abc radio, news radio and RN so I’m not sure if the recaltritrants on this site are doing too much damage to his reputation.
MrMoney @ #2104 Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 – 7:01 pm
The DVD (borrowed from the local library) is ready to pop into the player. Thanks for the snippet.
grimace….I think Labor are confident about Pearce, Swan, Hasluck and Stirling; and have Canning, Forrest, Tangney and Moore on the list of possibles. I think Canning is a win. Great candidate. And all the issues that resonated in 2017 still bite the Fed-Liberals now.
I’m doorknocking in Moore tomorrow…will report…
How lies are spread:
nath says:
Saturday, March 2, 2019 at 12:45 pm
I’m in favor of banning all religions. But I would settle for a castration. Take away the tax free status, their ability to control any education. Worship and charity, that is what I’d leave them.
Bushfire Bill says:
Saturday, March 2, 2019 at 7:29 pm
………Nath-thing’s remark this afternoon canvassing castrating Pell is a case in point. A truly disgusting performance, beyond merely obnoxious, and into the realm of sickening.
grimace, briefly:
I reckon the article quoted by Mr Money is on the money.
https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/liberals-confronting-their-toughest-battle-yet-in-wa-20190227-p510ms.html
I’d also add that, based on the views of my friends, colleagues and social acquaintances, the knifing of Turnbull, and subsequent snub of JBishop has further damaged the Liberal brand here. People are very angry about both, most esp because JBishop has decided to retire.
From Mike Carlton.
“We could save a lot of time and money if we abolished courts, judges and juries and left it to the Murdochracy to decide who’s guilty or not.”
grimace,
Barney has got the right end of the stick. The Coalition, due to lack of funds, are bilking the taxpayer to advertise their virtues. It’s totally one-sided and makes absolutely no mention of things which Labor has agreed to as it passed through parliament as well. For example, in my local shopping centre the Coalition, aka ‘the Australian government’, has bought space on one of those digital billboards that are dotted about the place as you walk the corridors of the centre and it advertises how the government is making small business better or easier, or something equally fatuous. Never mentioned is the fact Labor passed the same tax cut legislation. Going by the nature of the advertisements fawning over themselves you’d think that the Coalition were god’s gift to Australia. 🙂
Also, in my local paper, our Liberal MP, soon to be replaced, hopefully, is filling the local paper with advertisements about her achievements while she has been the Member. No mention is ever made of the projects started by the former Labor MP. I guess that’s just politics as usual.
We also know that she has virtually given up on door-knocking because of the blowback she has been getting.
Normally, once the election has been called she has posters up on all the bus shelters. I’d say that will ramp up after the NSW State election.
She also brought a Tax Office section to our area, promising 600 jobs with it. Which has turned out to be a gross exaggeration. Plus, a lot of the hires have been made through a dread Labour Hire company. Not to mention the buildings themselves are an eyesore.
So, a pretty piecemeal campaign so far. And this is the designated national bellweather seat and she is one of the only women left contesting for the Liberal Party!
BK:
You mentioned the other day about a monthly community dinner you put on. Is that you personally, or the volunteer fire brigade?
guytaur,
The lyrics are great, but the music in toto is better.
Pet Shop Boys – It’s a Sin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dRHetRTOD1Q
TPOF @ #2119 Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 – 8:27 pm
TPOF, you can pack me in your suitcase, or I will never speak to you again! 😆
Bushfire Bill @ #2106 Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 – 8:08 pm
So get back to ‘discussing ideas’ rather than moaning about other contributors.
The penny has dropped for the Liberals that when they campaign on Medivac they are campaigning against themselves. When they campaign on energy/climate, they campaign against themselves. When they campaign on ‘the economy’ they remind voters of the tightness in household incomes and they campaign against themselves. They cannot campaign on ‘stability’ because they appear totally ridiculous. Consequently they have just about stopped campaigning on anything of substance.
They give every appearance of being just totally useless. They are the absolute antithesis of the ‘safe hands’ they need to be.
Voters in the marginals are going to take them apart; and in their safe-held the Independents will steal some of their best country.
Hello World shareholders* would not be happy that the share price has been in continual decline since mid February.
*That is, those poor mug shareholders who are innocent victims of the recent shenanigans.
https://www.google.com/search?client=safari&rls=en&q=hello+world+asx&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8
EDIT: Choose one month option
… but but but “Advance Australia’ – the right wing competitor to GetUp!
I saw somewhere that they were raising money to help Tony Abbott in Warringah.
Not sure that they are getting many ‘boots on the ground’ though.
You mentioned the other day about a monthly community dinner you put on. Is that you personally, or the volunteer fire brigade?
____
confessions
No, it is put on by the Mount Torrens Centenary Park which is a community owned and run sporting and recreational facility that hosts the local football, cricket and tennis clubs.
A handful of committee members do all the cooking, bar work and cleaning up
Confessions says:
Saturday, March 2, 2019 at 8:30 pm
grimace, briefly:
….quite right Fess. They have made themselves objects of ridicule. Lib-leaning voters cannot bare to even talk about politics. They’re embarrassed.
Cud Chewer @7:27p
“Dutton should be referred to the HC under S44
I love to see Shorten do this out of spite ”
if Dutton has any brains, he will have rectified any doubt about his S44 status before nominating for the next elections ( a bif IF, I know).
The worst thing that shorten can do when PM is act out of spite. He’ll have enough to do fixing a mess, to spend time on what many would regard as a petty vendetta.
However, I think he would gain points by clearing up the ‘jobs for mates’ orgy . That is actually costing the taxpayer$$$.
I have a solution to the celibacy/holy orders issue for anyone who wants to be a Catholic priest or brother.
If you are intending to take a vow of chastity then you should be castrated. That’d soon sort out THAT problem. I dare say they’d not take up the offer.
C@t
TPOF, you can pack me in your suitcase, or I will never speak to you again!
_______________________________
Ah. If only! Luggage weight problems unfortunately. Photography is absolutely fabulous in that program!
In The West newspaper today Tom Percy QC argues that the Pell decision was unsafe because the jury would have been tainted by pre-trial publicity in such a high profile case. He argued that a judge alone trial (not available in Victoria) would avoid a prejudicial outcome.
He also argues that the jury took three days to reach a decision, and should have reached it sooner had they been certain he was guilty.
I find his arguments surprisingly unconvincing.
Thanks BK. Sounds like a fantastic community event. How are your numbers in winter? I ask because I’ve toyed with the idea of doing something similar to activate one of our local community halls during the winter months when things are slow.
Just returned from the trailrer park monthly party, finding most are Tories.
Kate
He has twisted logic. Surely if the jury had pre-judged it because of what they had already seen/read, then it would have taken them a very short time to come back. It sounds like they deliberated very carefully.
Kate, Percy is a professional advocate for the accused. It’s his thing. He’s made a career out of being an obstinate defender. Hard as nails when acting for the accused. Outspoken.
TPOF @ #2138 Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 – 8:45 pm
Oh well, I hope someone can help you to put the photos up here when you come back. 🙂
Howdy, lizzie. I know this might be embarrassing for you, but I like you.
In The West newspaper today Tom Percy QC argues that the Pell decision was unsafe because the jury would have been tainted by pre-trial publicity in such a high profile case. He argued that a judge alone trial (not available in Victoria) would avoid a prejudicial outcome.
____________________________
The only broad pre-trial publicity was that Catholic priests were actually capable of sexually assaulting children. Unlike the Chamberlain case, for example, pretty much nobody knew the particulars of these allegations against George Pell.
In most high profile cases the facts of the case (or distorted versions thereof) are often widely canvassed in the media before anyone is even charged. Even so, it is surprising how many people actually pay no attention and just get on with their lives. But in this case I’m not aware of the details being aired at all pre-trial or even in the prior hung jury trial. More than most cases, apart from the relative fame of the accused, the jury came quite cold to the actual charges themselves and the details that supported them.
Whatever the appeals court concludes, it won’t give five seconds to the proposition that the jury was prejudiced.
Grimace, i dont think LNP ever campaign much in their safe regional seats.
In Wannon Dan Tehan has been invisible for years, now suddenly in first 3 pages of local paper complaining about roads (all Labors fault apparently).
Complaining about roads is like being in kindergarten down here, every candidate does it every election for decades (LNP since 1955), he is safe, but its a bit embarrassing for him if thats the best he has got.
briefly @ #2122 Saturday, March 2nd, 2019 – 5:28 pm
We did a big knock today in an area that is historically Liberal positive, got very few “not interested’s” and reasonable number of “I normally vote Liberal but’s”. I remember when that started when I was door knocking during the state election campaign, it’s an ominous sign for Porter, whose campaign is MIA.
One possibility for why we haven’t seen any Liberal campaign advertising is they are going to have a half senate election in May, and delay the HoR election until November.
Wren’s week – Another week of LNP corruption.
It appears since LNP does not have money for campaigning they are shamelessly using tax payers money for it. That is the reason Morrison said he had lot of money for campaigning.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/wrens-week-liberal-use-of-taxpayers-funds-and-pells-support-group,12429