The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.
National polling news:
• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.
• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.
• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).
With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.
• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.
• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.
• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.
Preselection news:
• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.
• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.
New Rules on purity tests.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NELgksUcgDE
PuffyTMD @ #322 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 2:31 pm
And yet the most mocked, derided and vilified generation (Millenials) are taking days off school to protest inaction on tackling climate change.
As each generation attains elder status, they have always poured scorn on the generation that is going to replace them.
The hippies became yuppies and then became ancient nobles showering their bitterness on youth. And the beat goes on……
One day the Millenials will look down their noses at whatever label the following generation gets given. And the beat goes on…..
Oh, and BTW, not every Boomer took part in Vietnam protests, or any of the other movements of the sixties and seventies. In fact the ones that did were a minority. Also, have a look at the people who are Hanson’s biggest supporters. Yep, mainly Boomers. Which generation makes up the majority of climate change deniers? Once again, mainly Boomers. Which generation are the biggest supporters of the Libs and Nats? Boomers once again.
Now, there are many Boomers like yourself who are a bit more attuned to the zeigeist, however they do not make up the majority of that generation.
During the 60s Boomers had the slogan, “Never trust anyone over 30”. Now they say, “Never trust anyone under 60”. They sang, “Hope I die before I get old “along with The Who, and just like The Who (well 2 of them anyway) they’re still alive and elderly.
In closing, apart from civil rights, gender rights, and a host of other improvements to the quality of life, what have the Boomers ever done for us?
(/remove tongue from cheek)
C@tmomma@5:33pm
I feel constricted to post on nath posts because I am concerned that I will be banned on the basis on being personal although nath comments deliberately are provocative and invite only harsh posts
Dan Gulberry
Have a “young people today..” from the Rupertarium this morning.
.
.
“Quality lost on young readers’
A distinguished Sydney principal has expressed alarm at the reading habits of many young people, warning that an over-reliance on social media and online news aggregators risked undermining their intellectual development.
https://outline.com/RTSwPd
poroti @ #354 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 6:13 pm
And this appeared in The Australian?
I’m glad someone seems to still have a sense of humour!
Dan G:
I agree with most of what you’ve said, but do take issue with this:
Surely this is the reverse of pouring scorn on the generation that is going to replace them?
Player One
I think they are worried that the supply of Maurice Newmans will dry up.
PhoenixRED@6:49am (from other thread)
“President Booker and VP Ocacia-Cortez”
Very funny to think them as that
‘Upnorth says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 3:41 pm
@ Boerwar
Albo is in London next month and will launch the ALP Abroad campaign. Family and I have signed up again for HTV’s at the Australian Embassy. No Tory HTV’s last time expect the same again. Around 2500 votes here last time including a few dozen for Herbert – I take credit for that win!’
Goodoh!
From one of my favourite journalists, Michael West…re his SMH dismissal:
“When I asked why they sacked me they said, “Your skill-set is not in alignment with Fairfax strategy going forward”.
They were right
Am cancelling my sub after 39 years . Will miss the crosswords.
Lizzie@6:14pm
Maurice Newman is a Mo..n
Ven,
I think that the Overlord has achieved what many of us were hoping. The endless posts back and forth have stopped. I am now happily reading this BB and enjoying the information exchange. The tools available mean that readers can get the information that is enthusiastically posted on this site without getting having to filter out the posts that are of no value. I think we all know who are those that contribute and those that disrupt.
I am very glad that Cat is back, I was unhappy to see her go.
One thing I love about guytar is that his posts are partisan but worth a read. That is a standard that some on that side of politics could do with emulating.
Ven says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 6:09 pm
C@tmomma@5:33pm
I feel constricted to post on nath posts because I am concerned that I will be banned on the basis on being personal although nath comments deliberately are provocative and invite only harsh posts
________________
stop stalking me.
Simon² Katich® @ #337 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 2:45 pm
Well there you go. Turns out BHP may well end up flogging Olympic Dam off. If a suitable buyer can’t be found they may well shut it down of their own volition, irrespective of what the Greens policy is. Then, if a buyer is found an they encounter the same problems BHP is having, the acquirer may well shut it down, once again irrespective of what te Greens policy is.
Thanks for finding that article Simon.
For those who can’t access it, here’s the Outline link to it: https://outline.com/kg5sxh
So, what did the Boomers ever do for Rome?
Hall Greenland, one of the founders of the Greens in Australia and deputy convenor of the Greens NSW
https://watermelongreenland.wordpress.com/2019/02/16/google-aoc/
In no way do I want to overplay the impact of the radicalising elements in the Greens NSW but there can be little doubt that most members see global warming and problems like critical water shortages as the result of the activities of corporations and a system based on infinite growth on a planet with finite resources. As for the alternative or alternatives to capitalism, much like for AOC, that is a conversation Greens are just beginning to have.
One thing the newly or freshly radicalised Greens do agree on is the need for public enterprise and regulation of corporations if we to counter and halt global warming. It is abundantly clear that the operation of markets and private corporations – business as usual – will not meet the needs of a transition to a renewables-based economy. Certainly not in the time span we must meet.
In addition, there are a host of immediate policies that keep the Greens together and make them an essential alternative in our political scene. These are policies no other parliamentary party is offering: opposition to coal mines and gas fields, support for a rapid (and just) transition to renewables, treaty or treaties with Australia’s First Peoples, abolishing offshore detention, an increase in genuine aid to developing countries, more progressive taxation, more power to citizens including the right to strike, drug legalisation, an expanded public sector encompassing free education from pre-school to TAFE and university, free public transport and priority investment in public and community housing projects.
Whatever the growing strains happen to be for the Greens, the ecological dangers such as extreme heat, fire and floods, and the escalating unfairness most citizens now face mean the Greens – in parliament and out in our communities – will remain indispensable if we are to escape our worst dangers. There can be little argument with that. As proof, membership in the Greens NSW has resumed its upward trajectory after last year’s dip. Not all of them are fans of Sanders, Corbyn and AOC, but many of them are.
———–
AOC = Alexandria Ocasio Cortez
BW@6:20pm
Is Albo giving a speech? That is more lethal than Medevac bill. 🙂
Ven @ #360 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 3:19 pm
Noooooooo!!!!! The Democrats need to appeal to the mainstream swing voters, not the rusted on Democrat voters.
This comment is about as bad as it gets — an attempt to activate an argument where none exists, while pompously purporting to do the opposite.
Neutered cats do behave better you know. 🙂
“But the father said to his servants, Bring forth the best robe, and put it on him; and put a ring on his hand, and shoes on his feet. And bring hither the fatted calf, and kill it; and let us eat, and be merry. For this my son was dead, and is alive again; he was lost, and is found. And they began to be merry.”
Blessed day!
#bringbackthebiff.
Confessions @ #357 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 3:19 pm
Read the very last sentence. The whole post was tongue in cheek.
Mega moguls got $10.8b richer in 2018, and it wasn’t even a good year – Bloomberg Billionaires Index, a ranking of the world’s 500 richest people aka 0.0001 per centers.
https://www.theage.com.au/business/markets/mega-moguls-got-10-8b-richer-in-2018-and-it-wasn-t-even-a-good-year-20190216-p50y7u.html
The Bloomberg Billionaires Index’s inaugural ranking of hedge-fund wealth lays bare a truth about the business that, for many, defines what it means to be rich.
Outfits like Griffin’s Citadel and Ray Dalio’s Bridgewater Associates have grown so big by assets that they’ve effectively become printing presses for their ultra-rich owners.
Thanks, SK
The Greens policy is to close uranium mines and to prohibit uranium exports. That much is perfectly clear from their policy statements. There are no ifs. There are no buts. And why would there be? For the ideological lefties inside the Greens anti-uranium policies are core business.
I assume that while some folk like Dan might think otherwise, the Greens would have a view that a mine that produces tens of thousands of uranium is, whatever else it produces, also a uranium mine. To be fair to than, the Greens policies in this area do not mention cases where uranium mines also produce other metals. But we all know that the Greens value a 100% congruence between what their policies say and what they will support.
If so, and the Greens might wish to clarify this, and on the balance of probabilities, the Greens intend to close Olympic Dam.
Given that article it rather looks as if the margins are small enough that just stopping sales of uranium would be enough for BHP to walk away from the mine altogether.
But I am sure that the Greens have thought this through and are prepared to clarify the situation for all South Australian voters.
So, it is over to Ms Hanson-Young who is the Greens Shadow Spokesperson for the Environment.
If there was a problem with his posts WB would already have ……………………
Player One says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 3:26 pm
EB @ #256 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 3:25 pm
I am one born in the 50’s yes but not a Greenie, or a Laborite or a Liberal or a Nat or a PHON or a UPA or….you name it I’m none of the above. I’m an Australian born human concerned about the policy of our Government and the impact it has on people and the environment. I vote for Andrew Wilkie in the HOR and ALP in the senate if you want to put me into one of your convenient support/disdain slots.
Oh wait I’m already in one of your vilified groups for being born in the 50’s, and watching my mother cry over an older cousin of mine killed on his first Vietnam Tour. You have no insight and no idea. Happy to scroll past you and other narrow-minded whingers all day.
Apologies if someone has already posted this:
https://www.canberratimes.com.au/politics/federal/i-m-sure-she-believes-it-shorten-questions-sincerity-of-cash-s-awu-evidence-20190216-p50ya6.html
Lovely put down from Bill:
Senator Cash on Friday claimed to have had no interest in the outcome of the investigation and denied she wanted to discredit Mr Shorten or the Labor Party.
Mr Shorten responded on Saturday, questioning whether the senator was telling the truth.
“Listen, whatever she told the court, I’m sure she believes it,” he told reporters in Melbourne.
“I just don’t know if anyone else does.”
Biden/Harris or Biden/Klobuchar is the Dems dream team – swing voters, people of colour and women will come out and vote.
If Biden doesn’t run then Harris/Booker or Harris/Castro.
‘Ven says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 6:25 pm
BW@6:20pm
Is Albo giving a speech? That is more lethal than Medevac bill. ‘
I believe that the day after the Medivac Act was passed, Mr Albanese made seven separate media appearances.
IMO, and FWIW, Mr Albanese has one quality that is in short supply across the political landscape: he is the real thing and people sort of get that.
Ven @6:09PM. That is far too convoluted for my limited brainpower. However, I don’t think I’ll trawl back to try to unravel it.
Hey boerwar, here’s a thought. Why not get in touch with The Greens and ask them to clarify exactly where they stand on Olympic Dam. That’s the only way this argument will be settled once and for all.
I’m not going to bother since the Greens will never be in government so what they say is irrelevant.
But you go ahead as it’s obviously a big issue for you. Let us all know what they have to say on the matter.
momma,
The Pogrom is in and you’re name is at the top of the list.
Either you shed this self appointed role of correcting the PB diaspora or you are a dead duck.
I blame the Depression/World War Two generation.
What were they thinking?
They killed about 80 million of each other and flattened a substantial proportion of the world’s built environment.
The Boomers practically had to start from scratch.
EB @ #377 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 6:34 pm
You people do so love your strawmen arguments, don’t you?
Look at the bright side. Imagine if you were born about 1895-1900. Off to WWI as a young’un. Back and just settling down and WALLOP the Great Depression. Just crawling out of that and hey ho let’s have WWII.
Dan
The Greens have stated that they will shut all uranium mines. Olympic Dam Mine mines tens of thousands of tonnes of uranium.
Clarifying that is not my problem.
The Greens are silent on the matter, just as they are silent on the real world consequences of gutting the ADF and turning it into a light mobile force, and just the same as they are silent on the immediate and drastic consequences of removing all GMOs from the environment.
The only practical explanation for the totality of the Greens policy settings is that that the Greens know perfectly well that they will never have to deliver on their policies so they can say what they want while criticizing others for not meeting the Greens lofty policy standards.
EB we are now a minority group so no doubt Get Up, the Guardian and the Greens will agitate on our behalf. 🙂
‘poroti says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 6:43 pm
Look at the bright side. Imagine if you were born about 1895-1900. Off to WWI as a young’un. Back and just settling down and WALLOP the Great Depression. Just crawling out of that and hey ho let’s have WWII.’
And all done without penicillin!
Holden Hillbilly @ #379 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 3:35 pm
Well my view is that history often shows the candidates you think before the campaign will be the winner aren’t, and those candidates written off at the start of the campaign come through and win. Obama and Trump are two such examples.
Howard and Murdoch corrupted the boomers and GenX.
GenY and younger have the benefits of the internet and it’s wider offering of knowledge. They will save humanity, of that I’m confident.
Player One says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 6:38 pm
EB @ #377 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 6:34 pm
You people do so love your strawmen arguments, don’t you?
I won’t bother asking who “you people” are- scroll scroll scroll. And by the way it’s straw man not strawmen moron.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man
Just like the generations before, many Baby Boomers have taken the well-trodden path from youthful left-wing idealist to grumpy old reactionary.
EB @ #392 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 6:47 pm
Clearly you don’t scroll, you read my posts very, very closely.
I’m flattered.
poroti @ #386 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 3:43 pm
Imagine being born today. You can look forward to a life of physical inactivity, leading to an ‘old age’ riddled with chronic disease and premature death. Premature being relative to today’s longevity standards of course.
Reading the many articles on the so called Emergency and the usurpation of power by Trump, it strikes me that the Republicans should be crapping themselves.
If the Dems do not choose to fight this issue then the Republicans have put themselves into a world of pain.
If they don’t stop their own President then they still face losing the next election to the Dems but in those circumstances they will not be able to stop the next president from asserting the same power.
By not contesting this president then they will have given credence to the next doing the same on Climate Change for example.
I sure hope that Pelosi leaves this poisoned chalice for the Repugs to ingest.
It is the same old story of not stopping your enemy from doing something stupid.
“Mr Albanese has one quality that is in short supply across the political landscape: he is the real thing and people sort of get that.”
He’s got some people fooled good and proper.
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/whats-left-anthony-albanese-and-the-redbaiting-of-jim-casey,8632
Boerwar @ #387 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 3:43 pm
ROFLMAO. Comedy Gold!!!!!
“It’s so important to me that I’ll keep posting post after post claiming what their policy is, but I can’t be bothered confirming that what I’m posting is actually true. The onus of proof is on the accused.”
Comedy Gold!!!!!
It took seconds to find:
SA Greens policy: https://greens.org.au/sa/policies/making-sa-nuclear-free
Player One says:
Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 6:38 pm
You people do so love your strawmen arguments, don’t you?
This reasoning is a fallacy of relevance: it fails to address the proposition in question by misrepresenting the opposing position- and so are you – “a fallacy of relevance”. Take your ignorance elsewhere P1 I prefer to engage with non zealots from any political sphere.