BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

A lurch back to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, plus further polling tidbits and preselection news aplenty.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.

National polling news:

• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.

• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.

• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).

With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:

Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.

• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.

• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.

• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.

Preselection news:

• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.

Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.

• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,132 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

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  1. Steve @10:38,

    It’s clear that Morrison wants no stone left unturned regarding boats. It’s so predictable that even the least engaged should notice. So much for ‘on water matters’.

    If I was Shorten I would hammer the line “chaotic and desperate government”. That gives the opportunity to not only point out that government rhetoric is the biggest weakness to border security, but also list it’s many other failings.

    I would consider direct questions on the Medevac bill as an opportunity to explain the changes in a calm and rational way (PB readers know the bill isn’t scary). Then point out the 800 odd who have already come, then turn to the government rhetoric, then back to “chaotic and desperate government”.

    Pretty much what Shorten has been doing.

  2. “In a political message

    Player One @ #92 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:57 am

    yabba @ #82 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    GG, as the PB expert on matters to do with the Vatican, do you have any comment to make on this piece, to enlighten us all. Is this another ‘populist witch hunt’?.
    I believe William is trying to discourage posts of this type.
    I don’t read his stuff. But, I’m happy for him to show his inner moron. As you say, William may have different ideas.”

    #bringbackthebifftopollbludger!

  3. The ABC has a surprisingly interesting article on Chinese Sci-Fi.
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2019-02-16/chinese-science-fiction-vision-future-of-science-and-technology/10795074

    Science Fiction can be subversive.

    Until recently, science fiction in China mostly flew under the radar, Xia Jia suggested. Its increased profile today is not always easy for authors to handle, whether creatively or politically. “Science fiction writers now can feel the pressure,” she said. “We have to be more careful about how to imagine the future, how to write our stories.”

    So there’s a delicate balance.

    For Bao Shu, the author of science fiction novel The Redemption of Time, the genre’s role in China remains ambiguous. On the one hand, he said, the government still views it as a useful way to educate, to spread the spirit of science.

    The article makes the point that China has a different emotional perspective on technology than does The West. Ho-hum. For me what was interesting was how Sci-Fi is taken seriously, and how this seriousness provides some insight into China’s internal politics. The state comes across as supremely paternalistic. You need to be “good” to thrive.

  4. Just saw this:

    Scott Stedman

    @ScottMStedman
    16m16 minutes ago
    More
    NEW: Mueller team says Manafort deserves 19.5-24.5 YEARS in prison – just for his case in Virginia.

  5. ‘My colleague in Indonesia, David Lipson, says few in Indonesia noticed or cared that the Government lost the medevac bill, but “the Prime Minister’s announcement that he’s reopening Christmas Island for business is making a splash”’

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-13/asylum-seekers-labor-hefty-political-gamble/10807922?fbclid=IwAR1OjTra1rrfkk4_I7IOqm8_iKTsPR0-p0LOa35ZSxnX34huJy83DsjfPpM

    So hang on, its really ScoMO and the government giving the signal to open the borders? This is getting confusing!

  6. Special counsel says Paul Manafort deserves up to 24.5 years in prison for financial crimes

    Former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort deserves 19.5 years to 24.5 years in prison for his conviction for eight financial crimes, special counsel Robert Mueller’s office said Friday night.

    Manafort, 69, was convicted by a Virginia jury last August for bank fraud, tax fraud and other financial crimes related to the money he earned working for Ukrainian politicians.

    https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/15/politics/paul-manafort-sentencing-hearing/index.html

  7. Barney in Ben Tre

    Those sentences are what the prosecution are recommending for his crimes,bank fraud and tax evasion. What the judge does with the recommendation is up to him.

  8. Hopefully people will start to see that the Government doesn’t give a shit about drownings and all the boats ever were about was a political tool to beat Labor with.

  9. Andrew_Earlwood @ #102 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 11:29 am

    “In a political message

    Player One @ #92 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:57 am

    yabba @ #82 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:40 am

    GG, as the PB expert on matters to do with the Vatican, do you have any comment to make on this piece, to enlighten us all. Is this another ‘populist witch hunt’?.
    I believe William is trying to discourage posts of this type.
    I don’t read his stuff. But, I’m happy for him to show his inner moron. As you say, William may have different ideas.”

    #bringbackthebifftopollbludger!

    Andrew,

    In this new period of enforced peace and happiness on PB, I’m becoming one of those rare beasts; the Gunslinger that survived to live happily ever after.

    A couple of posters don’t seem to have understood the messages sent out by WB. One poster, in particular this morning, is being belligerently non-compliant after being told off and instructed to mend his ways only yesterday. I’m not sure he’ll be with us much longer if he is to continue his current posting modus operandi.

    Happily, that’s not my decision.

  10. Barney in Ben Tre:

    [‘I thought prosecutors presented the evidence and judges determined the penalties?’]

    It’s standard procedure for prosecutors and defence lawyers to make submissions on sentencing, though judges are not bound by them.

  11. GG complies with William’s requests by drawing attention to his blocking me, and calling me a moron.

    I comply with William’s requests by carrying on a civil, back and forth, detailed, respectful and useful conversation with Boerwar, reaching effective agreement, albeit after William had not understood the nature of the conversation, and had over-reacted.

    Who is at fault here. William, in his wisdom, will decide.

  12. Late Riser

    Boris and Arkady Strugatsky wrote Sc-Fi in the USSR. Probably their most famous work translated into English is ‘Roadside Picnic’. Most of their stories are set in a future universe governed by a communist-type government (helped get them published!).

    But one book ‘Prisoners of Power’ (English title, Russian is ‘The Inhabited Island’) comes across as a scouring critique of the USSR. It got published as a book in 1971 – with some heavy censorship. I think even the Soviet authorities sensed it was not really just an attack on fascism!

  13. BB @9:58 On Hartcher.

    I think the ‘logic’ is that if you are reading his article you are informed, and the government scare campaign won’t work on you. However, for all those other idiots out there it will work, and if it doesn’t it’s a nice distraction.

  14. The Guardian has an article about our “missing” environment minister.
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/16/the-invisible-minister-melissa-price-accused-of-going-missing-on-the-environment

    The article reinforces my opinion that L/NP culture is a top-down “management” culture, and of course government contains the top level managers. At the moment the environment is merely another problem. In times past it was a resource or a business opportunity. It’s still being managed.

  15. Is this forum about poll and politics or point scoring?

    I have been a long time lurker / reader and only occasionally post, more due to lack of time than interest. ….hope the forum finds that sweet spot with robust discussion without the preoccupation on point scoring that has taken over.

  16. Scout,

    Point scoring and rebuttal are legitimate and important aspects of the blog.

    If one person makes a point. it can be legitimately countered by different information or an alternative take on the information provided.

    What WB appears to be policing atm is posters resorting to personal abuse, bullying and hectoring to enforce their view as being the superior one.

  17. “Andrew,

    In this new period of enforced peace and happiness on PB, I’m becoming one of those rare beasts; the Gunslinger that survived to live happily ever after.

    A couple of posters don’t seem to have understood the messages sent out by WB. One poster, in particular this morning, is being belligerently non-compliant after being told off and instructed to mend his ways only yesterday. I’m not sure he’ll be with us much longer if he is to continue his current posting modus operandi.

    Happily, that’s not my decision.”

    Sure. Sure. I feal you GG.

    However.

    One notices the self appointed hall monitors drawn from the ranks of the worst category of offenders. Unctuous. Much.

  18. Andrew_Earlwood @ #119 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 12:12 pm

    “Andrew,

    In this new period of enforced peace and happiness on PB, I’m becoming one of those rare beasts; the Gunslinger that survived to live happily ever after.

    A couple of posters don’t seem to have understood the messages sent out by WB. One poster, in particular this morning, is being belligerently non-compliant after being told off and instructed to mend his ways only yesterday. I’m not sure he’ll be with us much longer if he is to continue his current posting modus operandi.

    Happily, that’s not my decision.”

    Sure. Sure. I feal you GG.

    However.

    One notices the self appointed hall monitors drawn from the ranks of the worst category of offenders. Unctuous. Much.

    You may well say that. I couldn’t possibly say!

  19. Late Riser

    I think Melissa Price’s most exciting moment was when she was actually made a Minister. I don’t think she has a clue what she is supposed to be doing and is in any case incapable of understanding. Isn’t she WA mines? Does she have the faintest idea about the East?

  20. DocAvers
    Absolutely bloody terrifying. Why are Christian business-people no longer simply nice Quakers like Fry and Cadbury creating chocolate to get people off the booze? Why are they now trying to ‘improve things’ by taking over the world rather than just paying their taxes?

  21. Clive’s adds I have seen are like a stream of non-sequiturs. Sometimes it’s hard to know if he is for or against the various words.

    I’m a living treasure [I bet they regret that]
    Government debt
    GST
    Other words
    Major parties
    I knew the Libs were crap
    Women
    Withholding tax
    Australians have had enough
    Take a number and add it to another number
    Get the economy growing
    Make Australia great again

  22. @WrittenOnWater

    The Department of Home Affairs “took the highly unusual step of making an advance payment of around $10 million to Paladin, as the company did not have the money to begin the contract”. WTF !

  23. lizzie @ #122 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 11:20 am

    Late Riser

    I think Melissa Price’s most exciting moment was when she was actually made a Minister. I don’t think she has a clue what she is supposed to be doing and is in any case incapable of understanding. Isn’t she WA mines? Does she have the faintest idea about the East?

    I don’t know about WA mines, but so what? From your description that puts me level with her. I suppose she’s a proper manager now, so that’s what. Happy days. 😡 (Sorry. Is there a word for really cynical sarcasm?)

  24. Late Riser

    I seem to remember a time when ministers were deliberately appointed into an area they knew little, or nothing, about, so that they came to the job with no previous bias and could take the advice of experienced public servants and experts.

    Or was that when I was reading Alice’s Adventure through the Looking Glass?

  25. Whatever happened to the war with Indonesia over boat turn backs predicted by many on this blog.
    I can well remember our resident military expert posting a detailed analysis on each country’s armed forces and their readiness for war.
    Am wondering if they will find thier voice again if Shorten wins the election.

  26. Cathy McGowan has a ‘Weekly Scoop’ where she reports on her activities. This is the only reference in it to her vote on medivac–

    ‘This is a controversial issue and people have different opinions. Please continue to stay in touch with the office.’

  27. Lizzie

    Price’s most recent job was with one of WA’s smaller iron ore miners.

    I would surmise any interest she had in the environment would have been working to get around rules to protect it.

    One of the things I look forward to in a Shorten Government is a ministry with members who have been actively working in a particular area for a few years. They will have good knowledge of their portfolios and hopefully can hit the ground running.

    Not appointments like Price which smacks of “who can we make environment Minister?”

  28. As this Gov’t’s reign approaches its nadir (can it get worse?) it may be time for us to award the superlatives.

    I nominate Melissa Price for the award of Most Useless Minister (I realise it will be a packed field).

    Her only achievement is in doing absolutely nothing for the environment.
    She has not looked at any of the environmental catastrophes afflicting Australia, refused to appoint people to legislated boards and committees, refused requests for meetings with environmental groups, refused to allow consideration of listing of threatened species, and, amazingly for this Gov’t, refused to send anyone to attend the international Convention on Biological Diversity in Egypt.

    Melissa Price has been criticised by three of the country’s biggest environment groups who say they have been unable to meet with her since her appointment last year. A fourth is accusing her office of being in breach of its responsibilities on threatened species.

    The criticism comes during a summer that has brought numerous environmental catastrophes, including the mass fish kill in Menindee in far-west New South Wales, fires in Tasmania’s world heritage area, a record-breaking January heatwave, and floods in Townsville that Queensland’s premier Annastacia Palaszczuk described as unprecedented.

    While the prime minister Scott Morrison and other senior members of the government including Michael McCormack and David Littleproud have made public appearances in towns affected by the disasters, Price has been absent.

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/16/the-invisible-minister-melissa-price-accused-of-going-missing-on-the-environment

  29. “Price’s most recent job was with one of WA’s smaller iron ore miners.

    I would surmise any interest she had in the environment would have been working to get around rules to protect it.”

    Price, the silent waste of space. Just warming the chair and taking the extra $ until the election.

  30. lizzie

    Howard had a wrinkle on that. Appoint someone who showed an antipathy to the area they are meant to look after. e.g. Wilson Tuckey –> Conservation, Alston—> Communication .

  31. ‘Barney in Ben Tre says:
    Saturday, February 16, 2019 at 11:36 am

    I thought prosecutors presented the evidence and judges determined the penalties?’

    I believe that both prosecutors and the defence can argue for a certain degree of penalties.

    IMO it is likely that there is a deal on in which Trump pardons Manafort.

  32. Tim Wilson’s circus is coming to Perth for two hearings. One in Carlisle and one in Guildford. I wonder if these are areas with high numbers of self funded retirees? I know the older part of Guildford has some very expensive real estate, esp along the Swan River. I know nothing of Carlisle.

  33. Listening this morning to Dr Phelps defending the poor self-funded pensioners who have ‘worked hard all their life and obeyed the taxation laws and are now being forced into penury’ (NOT a direct quote), I had a faint twinge of unreality as I remembered who she represents.

  34. “Do people not look around them before posing for silly photos?”

    Lol! i remember one of Abbott with the “Reject Shop” prominent in the background.

  35. Carlisle in WA is an inner southern suburb which has undergone substantial renewal in the last decade or so, with big blocks cut up into two, and three and four-unit developments.
    I would guess there would be a mix of downsizing older people and younger families and probably a lot of renters. Higher income types might prefer neighboring Victoria Park.
    Sydney’s eastern suburbs it ain’t.
    But it is smack in the middle of the now marginal seat of Swan.
    Maybe Wilson is trying to do his mate Steve Irons a favour.

    Edit. It is also within the State seat of Victoria Park, won by WA treasurer Ben Wyatt at the last election with 66 percent of the 2PP.

  36. “Listening this morning to Dr Phelps defending the poor self-funded pensioners who have ‘worked hard all their life and obeyed the taxation laws and are now being forced into penury’ (NOT a direct quote), I had a faint twinge of unreality as I remembered who she represents.”

    Yup, basically she’s a tory and if she is defending the franking credits arguments being made by the Coalition then just as economically illiterate as they are. Any bullshit about “unfairness” is telling and indicated the speakers views should be dismissed with predjudice and preferably a slap-down.

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