The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.
National polling news:
• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.
• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.
• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).
With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:
• Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.
• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.
• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.
• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.
Preselection news:
• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.
• Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.
• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.
sprocket_
Pentecostals all right. Followed up KI and the ASP mob and by golly the word ‘prosperity’ gets a work out. hurrah ‘prosperity theology’ as ” it pioneers a new revelation in business” and …”The Vision of Kingdom Investors is……. teaching them to attract the favour of God so that they can multiply their businesses “”
https://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/sonia-kruger-vilified-muslims-in-today-show-segment-20190215-p50y11.html
https://outline.com/ntuDfG
****************************************
poroti
Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 9:21 am
Comment #43
Many a jolly jape from the SMH jesters.
Separating the ordinary, how you say Señor, Scumbags, from the top of the line models is becoming increasingly difficult.
Its “Oh so easy” just to lump them all together and to prevent that, I propose a system of classification
to wit
The “Gimme a dollar”, boss, I will write a barage of words to defy an Einstein.
The “Ain’t I pretty” and when I tells ya a load of old cobblers I expect not only belief but adoration.
and so on.
A 🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟 system – similar to the food model where the number of stars equates with the density of the BS being offered.
How would we obtain a grant for this most excellent of programs.
Where is Douglas and Milko when she is needed ❓
Help ❗ I’m giving myself a headache. Panadol anybody ❓
Question without notice.
What currency is used in Heaven ❓
Gorks
Could not agree more. Boats are the Liberals Sudanese issue. Full out division and fear campaign; fully supported by the normal suspects in the media, with full out rejection by the voters.
The Liberal have overplayed their hand; if a boat appears now they will be blamed.
sprocket_ @ #15 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 6:44 am
The drop in LNP primary vote looks like Palmer’s doing.
I doubt the screaming about boats will actually help unless there is actually “boats”. But the media seems convinced that it will the election for the government.
Hartcher’s article today is a thousand word of uberwank, coming from a profession that distinguishes itself as a haven for wankers.
WHY do we need yet another “Inside Baseball” yarn, triumphantly revealing how politicians, their PR hacks and their mates in the media have concocted an elaborate plot to deceive the public, written by one of the very media mates who will be participating in the scam?
Hartcher reveals not a single skerick of intention to expose the swindle, or to at least try to promote a policy discussion around Boats – or any other political issue – in the run-up to the election. Coming from one of the supposed informed insiders of the Canberra Bubble it’s a remarkable position to take: writing a column in a major news outlet, based on his “expert” status, telling his readers how they are about to be deceived on a nationwide scale, then promising that he will play along with the deception.
It’s the same chutzpah and arrogance that is regularly indulged in by members of the Press Gallery – psssst! telling us politics is a confidence trick, bragging about being part of it, all while still fully expecting us to be sucked in anyway – but it’s none the less infuriating for that.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-science-behind-morrison-s-scare-tactics-20190215-p50y5k.html
“The Vision of Kingdom Investors is……. teaching them to attract the favour of God so that they can multiply their businesses”
Sounds like a Cargo Cult.
frednk,
Please, no!
I can’t remember the last time I vomited.
Some things should be left to history.
If ScoMo has so much important things to do, he would give up tax cuts and close loop holes to fund the drought, water and Environment!!!
Dusty, Smoky Skies in Australia
An enormous dust cloud snaked over Australia in mid-February 2019, carried toward the southeast by strong, dry winds. The dust reddened the skies over Sydney and turned air quality “hazardous” over parts of New South Wales.
The dust cloud is visible in this map, produced with data collected on February 13, 2019, with the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS) on the NOAA-20 satellite. The map shows relative aerosol concentrations, with lower concentrations in yellow and higher concentrations in dark orange-brown.
Read more, and see a natural-color image of the dust plume here: https://go.nasa.gov/2S4GXna
Amazed that 5% of Queenslanders are willing to get Clive another shot. But then Queenslanders are special.
What shall be interesting is whether the UAP eats into One Nations vote enough to stop them winning a senate spot. Probably not as the voters choose preferences nowadays and will leak across but I can hardly see them recommending each other after this weeks hubbub.
Looks like ScuMmo’s Scare Campaign has fallen flat
CM article – “Collapse shows not just farmers who need help” (can’t outline or copy link)
Does this mean the CM wants the taxpayer to be on the hook for every collapsing or failed business in Qld?
BB
You have a unique take on Hartcher’s story which I don’t quite follow. However, It was worth reading for the risible title “The science behind Morrison’s scare tactics”. Any supposed link between ScoMo and science is pure coincidence. 😀
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/the-science-behind-morrison-s-scare-tactics-20190215-p50y5k.html
😆
The people are engaged and quaking in their boots following this weeks scare campaign by the Government!
https://twitter.com/i/status/1096293351572234240
booleanbach @ #28 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:04 am
https://www.couriermail.com.au/business/citybeat/mowing-icon-greenfields-loss-shows-manufacturers-doing-it-tough-need-a-helping-hand/news-story/dd8ad24a0340a468d94b6b0d1e8d94af
https://outline.com/Y5cDMV
https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/queensland-government/galaxy-poll-lnp-faces-election-loss-despite-border-support/news-story/7fff412a0ef42e45addb50cc5a156156
Galaxy Poll: LNP faces election loss despite border support
Renee Viellaris, federal political editor, The Courier-Mail
February 16, 2019 7:05am
Subscriber only
SCOTT Morrison has spectacularly lost crucial support in Queensland in a shock result that points to a cashed-up Clive Palmer as a kingmaker on election night.
And in the first opinion poll since Labor’s controversial new asylum seeker “medevac” laws, the exclusive YouGov Galaxy survey reaffirms that voters believe the Coalition is overwhelmingly better on border security.
In a stunning turn, the Coalition’s primary vote has plummeted in the state that the Morrison Government needs to hold to keep Bill Shorten out of The Lodge.
The LNP’s primary vote has fallen to 35 points, down from 38 per cent in November and 43.2 per cent in July 2016.
………………
Also see the boats question here response here.
https://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/dab4cdb826fc31178a48d8f005928431
Poll on Sky twitter feed… Vote early and Often… 😀
https://twitter.com/SkyNewsAust/status/1096254347564933120
Leroy.
Thanks.
Yet…
A better role for Biden?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/02/15/better-role-biden/?utm_term=.59881ffb5245
lizzie @ #64 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 9:06 am
You made me think of a Petri dish.
BK
This article was published after your Dawn Patrol (I am loving ‘The Endeavour’ series by David Rowe!)
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/16/without-facts-we-slide-into-trumpism-the-truth-matters-here
I really like the secondary heading –
It may be risky for Labor to open up a point of difference on asylum seekers – but it’s time to call out self-serving bullshit
Katharine Murphy recalling the events of 2001 – one thing I remember is when a boat sank and people drowned, Kim Beazley said something like “that reflects a failure of government policy”. Howard went apoplectic and screamed demands for an apology – which is now sort of amusing as the Coalition sought to blame all deaths at sea on Labor from then on.
lizzie @ #70 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:17 am
It seems that the people admire the quality of the Government’s scare campaign and are enjoying the fireworks, rhetoric and funny hats. But, their intended voting is going to be based on important issues.
Stone has said publicly that he communicated with Wikileaks, so I don’t know why this is news.
Morning all, thanks BK.
On the question of being inovolunatrily logged out of Pollbludger – my son explained the reason it happens to me is that we have a VPN (he has set up very complicated firewalls etc. for us) and our LAN gets a web address reassigned randomly or when security requires it. It can happen ten times in one day, or not – depending on the security need. Thus, every time a new IP address is assigned to our server, we get cut off from places like Pollbludger and we have to relog-in when this happens.
Fess – it might be a case of ‘when’ Stone was in communication with wikileaks
Greensborough Growler @ #31 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:12 am
Great item.
“Could be Shorten or it could be the other guy ❗ “
I intend to show this item to my favourite daughter even though I face the prospect of a
So who’s a smartarse now ❓ 🥾🥾Boots – for quaking in of – or something.
An interesting graphic:
FL
79% to 19% in favour of medevac so far.
When a boat appears, Bill Shorten should condemn the Government for misrepresenting the recent minor Medivac legislation, make it clear that through such lies Morrison and the Government have invited the boats back, with all that entails, including risks of drowning. He should make it clear that boat arrivals are on Morrison’s head, no one else’s.
He should also pledge that a Labor Government will look after Australia’s borders, not play politics with them as the Government has done. Further, should there be any credible evidence of underhand dealings, for example of letting some boats through, he should pledge a full investigation.
GG, as the PB expert on matters to do with the Vatican, do you have any comment to make on this piece, to enlighten us all. Is this another ‘populist witch hunt’?
BK says:
The Catholic Church is headed for another sex abuse scandal as #NunsToo speak up. Is there no end to it?
https://theconversation.com/the-catholic-church-is-headed-for-another-sex-abuse-scandal-as-nunstoo-speak-up-111539
There may be more than one cause to being involuntarily logged out. When it happens to me it is typically after having been logged in for a while. I put it down to a time-out. It also happens on banking web sites, just very much sooner. I’ve learned to copy/paste anything longer than a few sentences and when I remember I also deliberately log out and in again every few hours.
I expect that a big difference between asylum seekers arriving by plane and those arriving by boat are that the former are documented. The latter have (or had) money but, for whatever reason, probably nationality, are unable to obtain a visa to enter Australia.
I was looking at his electorate office in Ellenbrook just yesterday, imagining how much better Main St would be without his ugly face. This is very distressing even if it is in the category of ‘unreliable individual seat’ poll conducted by a partisan propaganda sewer. Kim Travers could do without sleep till May I’m sure she needs to work harder.
A new ‘thoughts and prayers’. Another yeeeehaw shooting in the US. Police chief speaking “I’d like to take this opportunity to send positive energy to the officers…..”
Because the likelihood of Stone’s testimony matching the communications seems pretty low.
The Assange people no doubt are working up a conspiracy theory as we speak to explain that their Saviour was not working with Putin and Trump to influence a US election for the Russians, and that even if he was he is the messiah and that is exactly what the universe demanded and any laws or norms to the contrary must be ignored.
BiBT “I can’t remember the last time I vomited.”
Can you beat this record: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1i7Jq3rAmBY
Steve777 @ #81 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 9:38 am
Neumann has one job now, though after watching his performance on 730 I suspect he needs help. IMO he needs to be talking with the cross-bench and developing a message, which he and they repeat. The message could be as simple as asking “Why is Morrison telegraphing to the people smugglers?” Others can go to the heart of medical compassion.
Steve777,
It seems a large amount of the increase is related to work visa scams originating out of Countries like China And India.
It comes as voters believe the Coalition has the best plan on Australia’s border security, at 44 per cent.
—————
44- 29 is 15% difference
That is very poor for the pro coalition media and Libs/nats , the pro coalition media and libs/nats would have been wanting 50% + in border security
and a bigger margin of more than 15% over Labor
yabba @ #82 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:40 am
I believe William is trying to discourage posts of this type.
In a political message
Player One @ #92 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 10:57 am
I don’t read his stuff. But, I’m happy for him to show his inner moron. As you say, William may have different ideas.
The Libs should try wages will go up under a Shorten Government as a killer political strategy!
Having read the vanOselen piece, it makes me sad to think he is still writing superficial political bubble stuff for the Oz. (Which I don’t often read) And he doesn’t really dig into the nuance which should be his forte
The pork is being rolled out, Morrison on the NW of Tas throwing $s around.
Will not see him in the South of the State as there are no marginal seats down here.
Sometimes wish we were for investment but Wilkie at least has had some wins
jen,
At heart PVO is a Lib. He’s going through that hand ringing phase of the political cycle where Libs who have been totally disappointed by their Government are looking for reasons to give them one more chance!
I apologise to everybody, especially William, for alluding to a news article, and relating this to a fellow PBer’s professed expertise. Its good to see that the expert became aware of the request, despite his brave blocking of my posts.
I believe I read somewhere that William disapproved of people boasting about their blocking others, and with also with posters calling other posters ‘morons’. Perhaps he can elucidate as to which posters this applies to, and which not.
yabba @ #98 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 11:17 am
I believe William is trying to discourage posts of this type.
Player One @ #99 Saturday, February 16th, 2019 – 11:20 am
I believe William is trying to discourage posts of this type.