BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor

A lurch back to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, plus further polling tidbits and preselection news aplenty.

The addition of this week’s Newspoll and Essential Research polls have ended a period of improvement for the Coalition in BludgerTrack, which records a solid shift to Labor this week. Labor’s two-party lead is now 53.8-46.2, out from 53.1-46.9 last week, and they have made two gains on the seat projection, one in New South Wales and one in Queensland. Despite that, the Newspoll leadership numbers have resulted in an improvement in Scott Morrison’s reading on the net approval trend. Full results are available through the link below – if you can’t get the state breakdown tabs to work, try doing a hard refresh.

National polling news:

• A poll result from Roy Morgan circulated earlier this week, although there’s no mention of it on the company’s website. The primary votes are Labor 36%, Coalition 34.5% and Greens 12.5%, which pans out to a Labor lead of 54-46 using past preference flows (thanks Steve777). Morgan continues to conduct weekly face-to-face polling, but the results are only made public when Gary Morgan has a point to make – which on this occasion is that Clive Palmer’s United Australia Party is on all of 1%. One Nation doesn’t do great in the poll either, recording 3%. The poll was conducted over two weekends from a sample of 1673.

• The Australian had supplementary questions from this week’s Newspoll on Tuesday, which had Scott Morrison favoured over Bill Shorten by 48-33 on the question of best leader handle the economy – little different from his 50-32 lead in October, or the size of the lead consistently held by Malcolm Turnbull. It also found 33% saying the government should prioritise funding of services, compared with 27% for cutting personal income tax and 30% for paying down debt.

• The Australian also confused me by publishing, together with the Newspoll voting intention numbers on Monday, results on franking credits and “reducing tax breaks for investors” – derived not from last weekend’s poll, but earlier surveys in December and November (UPDATE: Silly me – the next column along is the total from the latest poll). The former found 48% opposed to Labor’s franking credits policy and 30% in support, compared with 50% and 33% when it was first floated in March (UPDATE: So the latest poll actually has support back up five to 35% and opposition down two to 38%). Respondents were instructed that the policy was “expected to raise $5.5 billion a year from around 900,000 Australians that receive income from investments in shares”, which I tend to think is friendlier to Labor than a question that made no effort to explain the policy would have been. The tax breaks produced a stronger result for Labor, with 47% in favour and 33% opposed, although this was down on 54% and 28% in April (UPDATE: Make that even better results for Labor – support up four to 51%, opposition down one to 32%).

With due recognition of Kevin Bonham’s campaign against sketchy reports of seat polling, let the record note the following:

Ben Packham of The Australian reports Nationals polling shows them in danger of losing Page to Labor and Cowper to Rob Oakeshott. Part of the problem, it seems, is a minuscule recognition rating for the party’s leader, one Michael McCormack.

• There’s a uComms/ReachTEL poll of Flinders for GetUp! doing the rounds, conducted on Wednesday from a sample of 634, which has Liberal member Greg Hunt on 40.7%, an unspecified Labor candidate on 29.4% and ex-Liberal independent Julia Banks on 16.1%. That would seem to put the result down to the wild card of Banks’ preference flows. There was apparently a respondent-allocated two-party figure with the result, but I haven’t seen it. UPDATE: Turns out it was 54-46 in favour of Greg Hunt, which seems a bit much.

• The West Australian reported last weekend that a uComms/ReachTel poll for GetUp! had Christian Porter leading 52-48 in Pearce, which is above market expectations for him.

• Another week before, The West Australian reported Labor internal polling had it with a 51.5-48.5 lead in Stirling.

Preselection news:

• Following Nigel Scullion’s retirement announcement last month, the Northern Territory News reports a field of eight nominees for his Country Liberal Party Senate seat: Joshua Burgoyne, an Alice Springs electrician, who was earlier preselected for the second position on the ticket behind Scullion; Bess Price, who held the remote seat of Stuart in the territory parliament from 2012 to 2016, and whose high-profile daughter Jacinta Price is the party’s candidate for Lingiari; Tony Schelling, a financial adviser; Tim Cross, former general manager of NT Correctional Industries; Gary Haslett, a Darwin councillor; Kris Civitarese, deputy mayor of Tennant Creek; Linda Fazldeen, from the Northern Territory’s Department of Trade, Business and Innovation; and Bill Yan, general manager at the Alice Springs Correctional Centre.

Andrew Burrell of The Australian reports Liberal nominees to succeed Michael Keenan in Stirling include Vince Connelly, Woodside Petroleum risk management adviser and former army officer; Joanne Quinn, a lawyer for Edith Cowan University; Michelle Sutherland, a teacher and the wife of Michael Sutherland, former state member for Mount Lawley; Georgina Fraser, a 28-year-old “oil and gas executive”; and Taryn Houghton, “head of community engagement at a mental health service, HelpingMinds”. No further mention of Tom White, general manager of Uber in Japan and a former adviser to state MP and local factional powerbroker Peter Collier, who was spruiked earlier. The paper earlier reported that Karen Caddy, a former Rio Tinto engineer, had her application rejected after state council refused to give her the waiver required for those who were not party members of one year’s standing.

• The Nationals candidate for Indi is Mark Byatt, a Wodonga-based manager for Regional Development Victoria.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,132 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Labor”

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  1. There’s something missing from this picture of the Government’s front Bench in the HOR. I just can’t work out what it is.

    When a picture speaks a thousand words about the coalition.

  2. jenauthor @ #788 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 11:24 am

    A (biased) response to insiders — The guests showed how empty the govt’s claims are on AS, Porter made matters worse for his party by his obfuscations and then Barrie capped the bottle by showing his insiders extra clip.

    Whatever they thought might be gained by their hysterical carry-on, the Libs have failed miserably.

    It is a shame there will not be a Newspoll until next week – I reckon it would have been diabolical after this week’s antics.

    That said, we have estaimates this week (as well as several house vote losses for the govt) so the “party has just started”.

    When the Govt is falling apart, estimates is most entertaining.

    This Paladin business promises much…

  3. The accidental PM, the still wanna be PM and the future of the Libs PM are actively engaged in artificially inseminating a refugee moment by tampering with the truth to remain in government.
    65% of voters would like to see the inseminators on a reduced fee on the backbench or retrained as bus drivers through a sponsored private business receiving a huge fee so these huge pricks can be made useful.
    Existing bus drivers would be mortified.

  4. (thanks to those that replied to my betting odds question)
    That’s it !!!!! …… I am joining the Home Guard

    No boats yet? And to think only 500 or so came through the airports in the last week.

    “Who do you think you are kidding Mr. Scomo,
    If you think we’re on the run?
    We are the boys who will stop your little game.
    We are the boys who will make you think again.
    ‘Cause who do you think you are kidding Mr. Scomo,
    If you think old Aus is done?

  5. Will we never learn? Urban sprawl is not the answer:

    https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/will-we-never-learn-urban-sprawl-is-not-the-answer-20190215-p50y1d.html

    Fast forward to 2019 and we see that more bands of land on the outskirts of Melbourne are going to be rezoned for housing, with the similar purpose of offering people “The Dream”.
    :::
    Potential buyers in the 21st century will have a hard time locating these new land sites, even with the help of a car and Google Maps. There’s a V-line train vaguely nearby, but let’s hope new residents don’t expect it to improve, as railways are only at the planning for planning stage.
    :::
    With some of these suburbs over 60km from the city, at what point do we cease to call something part of the capital? What these new settlers are really buying is more time and money in a car, less access to essential services and the promise of one day, maybe, getting some public transport, sort of.

    The infrastructure needs to be the priority build – railway lines are much easier to install before people are bustling about. Get businesses established, schools ready, trees planted, hospitals built and then open up land packages.
    :::
    What we actually need to do is look at ending the sprawl and managing growth efficiently, especially with Melbourne to overtake Sydney’s population within a decade. Continual oozing at the city borders is not helpful to anyone, least of all the people who are sold the idea of owning their own home.

  6. There is a difference between planes and boats that arrive with protection-seekers aboard. The planes fly by virtue of international agreements. The boats do not. They sail as a result of racketeering. The disruption of the boats has diverted asylum-seekers onto aircraft. This has got to be a better option for the asylum-seekers. They arrive as a part of mixed passenger-lists. The planes will not be stopped and turned around.

  7. TPOF @ #750 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:55 am

    Henry

    If you are now on Netflix watch Russian Doll. It’s brilliant.

    Also The Sinner, Bodyguard, Rebellion, Black Mirror, Narcos, Vikings, Mindhunter, Bad Blood, The Good Place, Monty Python’s Flying Circus (plus The Holy Grail, a couple of live shows, documentaries) and a ton of good movies along with a fair amount of crap as well.

    Oh yeah, and check out Norsemen, a very dry black comedy that’s a cross between Vikings and Game Of Thrones but written by the Monty Python team. Marvellous stuff.

  8. Yep, the response to growing populations in the major cities should either be building upwards or encouraging decentralisation.

    Unfortunately, Barnaby’s total mishandling of the process has dirtied the waters when it comes to moving government departments out of the major cities, as has his government’s undermining of the NBN.

  9. Dan Gulberry @ #806 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 11:39 am

    TPOF @ #750 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 7:55 am

    Henry

    If you are now on Netflix watch Russian Doll. It’s brilliant.

    Also The Sinner, Bodyguard, Rebellion, Black Mirror, Narcos, Vikings, Mindhunter, Bad Blood, The Good Place, Monty Python’s Flying Circus (plus The Holy Grail, a couple of live shows, documentaries) and a ton of good movies along with a fair amount of crap as well.

    Oh yeah, and check out Norsemen, a very dry black comedy that’s a cross between Vikings and Game Of Thrones but written by the Monty Python team. Marvellous stuff.

    The Founder is good. Michael Keaton brilliant as usual.

  10. The Liblings have lost most of the franchise on one of their staples, refugees. They have very little with which to replace it. They will soon lose Adanai too. Whatever will they do then? There used to be a retailer in Perth called Tom the Cheap. They eventually went broke and closed down, though not before Tom had been elected Lord Mayor. The Liblings are going broke too.

  11. Dan G:

    I’ve been tempted to try Narcos for a while now, but every time I watch the shorts it feels like it’s going to be cliched and I back down.

  12. zoomster @ #808 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 11:42 am

    Yep, the response to growing populations in the major cities should either be building upwards or encouraging decentralisation.

    Unfortunately, Barnaby’s total mishandling of the process has dirtied the waters when it comes to moving government departments out of the major cities, as has his government’s undermining of the NBN.

    Decentralisation – regional train infrastructure and NBN are essential.

    Joyce is a disgrace.

    Labor and the Greens should be attracting the regional voters a lot more with a joint approach to this. Hopefully more regional Independents step up too. Oakeshott definitely gets it.

  13. Aha! This, via Grog, is exactly the pointed line that I have been racking my brain to come up with to expose what the Coalition’s and Neoliberals’ battle cry of ‘Tax Cuts!’ is ALL about:

    cut company taxes and pushed for a lowering of the tax base that would inevitability lead to cuts in services.

    To wit, cutting taxes, lowers the tax base, which leads to cuts in services.

    And they know it, what’s more, and gleefully do it even more scandalously!

  14. Behrouz Boochani
    ‏@BehrouzBoochani
    Feb 14

    There is big corruption here on Manus in the contracts between Aus gov & the companies it pays to maintain this system. It’s time to investigate all the contracts incl. Paladin & IHMS. If Aus taxpayers knew how much corruption it would bring this gov down

  15. If Aus taxpayers knew how much corruption it would bring this gov down

    Does the current government really need another thing to bring it down? Save a few for later, maybe?

  16. Saw the Founder on Foxtel when I had it, bloody good film.
    Narcos I have flagged for later viewing along with Metallica’s Some kind of monster, Fargo (the tv series) and conversations with a killer. Amongst others.

  17. Morrison is burning with religious fury about being forced (by Labor of all suspects) to reopen Christmas Island. He has been on his knees bawling about sailors who have PTSD for fishing out the human torsos that are all over the Arafura sea. Nobody has asked him when this happened, but presumably it must have been during Labor’s time.

    So Labor needs to be careful about the stats for onshore claims from those who arrived by air. No drowning.

  18. Re Sprocket’s post

    sprocket_ says:
    Sunday, February 17, 2019 at 11:51 am
    The ever helpful Roman QuadBike has started a thread..

    So THAT’S the problem!!

    People arriving from different parts of the world, not just S.E. Asia. If only Asylum seekers came from different countries!
    Why didn’t they choose a different origin.

  19. I started watching ‘Salvation’ but it had too many plot holes. The idea, for example, that The World’s Richest Man was struggling to raise $2 billion….

  20. Rossmcg, there was also “Charlie Carters”…and Boans, Aherns…and lots of others. Retailing is tough, as the Liblings are finding out.

  21. Yabba

    If you are about…

    Buried in my thousands of words on the MDB was a reference to my concern about the formation of billabongs. I have been watching and thinking about this for over four decades.

    For non-billabong watchers, here is some background.

    Billabongs are bodies of water. They are found on floodplains. They are created when a river changes its course – almost always a direct consequence of a major flood. Or billabongs are created as isolated water bodies when a flood rips some new holes in the flood plain.

    In the normal course of river morphology, new billabongs are created and old billabongs disappear as eutrophication occurs. The latter usually involves a mix of the billabong become shallower and shallower over time, changes to nutrient status, and changes to plant composition. Eventually the only mark of a billabong might be a curving line of trees in the landscape. From the air it may look as if some giant ancestral snake has wriggled back and forth across the floodplain.

    Billabongs provide a large range of ecosystem opportunities that flowing rivers do not. For one thing, aquatic vegetation does better in shallower water and in non-flowing water.

    I have been fortunate in being able to observe a particular set of billabongs at first hand for half a century on the Goulburn River flood plain. I have observed them from the point of view of a farmer, fisherperson, aquarist and bird observer. So I know them intimately well from a range of perspectives. One of these billabongs, out of which I used to catch Redfin up to 1kg, is now dry land. Other have become more and more shallow during that time. The water quality has changed radically. The fish fauna has changed radically as eutrophication and other pressures have combined.

    Now, here is the rub. Those billabongs are the last ‘new’ billabongs in the district. They were created in the great flood of 1917. IMO, under current water management processes it is highly unlikely that new billabongs will be created in the district.

    From casual observation of many hundreds of km of the Goulburn, Broken, Murray, Murrumbidgee, Darling and Lachlan rivers over the past half century, I believe that the situation in our local area is more or less mirrored across the whole MDB.

    Old billabongs are dying. No new billabongs are being formed.

    IMO, the disappearance of billabongs in the MDB is a major environmental issue.

  22. Rex, Zoom,

    Yep. They’re all good as well. Also worth a watch are Beasts Of No Nation, Das Boot (the movie), Downfall, The Usual Suspects, Apocalypse Now (Redux), Mad Max: Fury Road as well as current Oscar contender Roma.

    I notice that recently they’ve added all the Wallace And Grommet shows as well. They’ve been on Stan for quite a while and are always good for a watch particularly if you’ve got kids.

    As well as that there’s a range of BBC nature documentaries including Planet Earth I and II, Blue Planet, Frozen Planet and more. These are also good for the whole family, young and old.

    One documentary I highly recommend is Cowspiracy about how industrialised agriculture is contributing to global warming.

    I also forgot to add Godless to the list of shows that are worth a watch. In short, if you set up a “My List” of shows and movies, you’ll be able to avoid free to air TV for the rest of your life.

    Also be aware that apart from Netflix’s own productions, everything else has a limited run on the platform, usually a year but can be up to two years.

    I recommend bookmarking this site: https://anz.newonnetflix.info/

    The front page has a list of all the new releases, but it also features all the stuff that’s due to expire shortly. That’s here: https://anz.newonnetflix.info/lastchance

    I recommend dedicating some time to go through the entire catalogue and add all the stuff you want to watch to “My List”. Same with Stan, if you get around to adding that platform as well.

  23. Greensborough Growler @ #797 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 11:28 am

    There’s something missing from this picture of the Government’s front Bench in the HOR. I just can’t work out what it is.

    I would say a woman, but Melissa Price is there – just invisible

  24. Most journos quite frankly are quite poor on air performers, be it tv or radio.
    I was listening to Mal Farr and Paul Bongiorno with Fran the other day on their political wrap and the amount of umms, ahhhs, pregnant pauses and general stammering drove me nuts. Spit it out, stop mumbling and get to the point I was shouting at the radio.
    That said they are both decent journos when in print or with an autocue.
    Dream team insiders line up would be grog, mega and possibly Lenore.

  25. sprocket_

    I liked this one – but somehow unlikely to be published in the Murdoch media (or any media!)

    Roman Quaedvlieg

    @quaedvliegs
    20m20 minutes ago

    AS arriving by air have averaged 76 per day in the last year in a daily pax inflow of 52000 across 8 airports, mostly in a 24/7 operating context. It’s roughly the equivalent of one boat arrival every day of the year.

  26. On another note, Bruno Ganz, famed for his legendary portrayal of Hitler in Downfall, has died.
    The film that spawned a thousand memes.

  27. Confessions @ #816 Sunday, February 17th, 2019 – 8:48 am

    Dan G:

    I’ve been tempted to try Narcos for a while now, but every time I watch the shorts it feels like it’s going to be cliched and I back down.

    The first season is somewhat like that, however it’s one of the few shows that actually gets better with each season. Season 2 is better than 1, and 3 is the best of all. My opinion of course.

    Season 1 of Narcos: Mexico sees to be following suit with the need to set up characters, scenarios, etc. I hope it too gets better with each successive season, but we’ll see.

  28. C@tomma apologies for late reply have been for a swim

    Agree it is a different context / time but there is a creation not reality, the general populous hear stop the boats not much else, my concern is the effect on votes and the vacuum leading to lack of discussionon other areas and still haven’t figured out the quoute function!

    On Insiders Porter could not answer questions on a range of topics including the establishment of royal comission in to abuse of people with a disability – he blamed the states.

    As the Lib mouthpiece on Insiders pointed out -the coalition does the simple message such as stop the boats well, this has win them elections

    Maybe Labor need to start saying stop the abuse, stop the lies!!!

  29. I’m sorry I don’t have the lead-up to this.

    Serkan Öztürk
    ‏@SerkanTheWriter
    2h2 hours ago

    We have now discovered written evidence from the hand of the CEO of Paladin himself – a senior and highly respected former member of the ADF – that he is fully aware of how contractors can engage in rip-offs and how it occurs. So why has it happened? #PaladinAffair #auspol #Manus

  30. Trumps latest bimbo pulls out of taking high office.
    “But her inexperience sometimes shone through: in June she cited the D-day landings as evidence of the longstanding relationship between Washington and Berlin.”

  31. Paul Barratt
    ‏@phbarratt
    4h4 hours ago

    Voters know PM is fair dinkum on boats

    And it’s because we know he believes passionately in inflicting cruelty on asylum seekers we are going to turf the bastard.

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