Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Shortly after Newspoll found the Coalition’s tentative momentum grinding to a halt, Essential gives them their worst result since August.

Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,398 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  1. citizen @ #698 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 7:07 pm

    Greg Barnes is generally on the side of the LNP. It’s interesting that he would spill the beans. Maybe there are enough people in Border Force who are disgusted with Morrison/Dutton to sabotage their plans.

    ” rel=”nofollow”>

    At what stage do the remaining moderate Libs in the Parliament say enough is enough!

    The paradigm has changed.

  2. Labor is trying to avoid being held responsible for parsing the broken anti-encryption laws that it new where broken.
    https://www.itnews.com.au/news/labor-concedes-decryption-laws-weakened-security-for-internet-users-519203

    Libs want to extend the anti-encryption laws to SEVEN other agencies.
    https://www.itnews.com.au/news/govt-to-extend-encryption-busting-powers-to-anti-corruption-agencies-519271

    The laws can force an employee to secretly sabotage the project they are working on, not allowed to even tell their boss. If they get caught, their boss would likely assume they are incompetent or have malicious intent.

    Anyone worth mentioning is outraged.
    https://www.itwire.com/government-tech-policy/86006-australian-tech-firms-seek-changes-in-encryption-law.html

    It will kill the tech sector in Australia, if it hasnt already, its significantly worse than the loss of the car manufacturer industry, but hardly anyone has even noticed.

  3. FS@7:02pm
    “she would have long since done a Keenan”
    But she is in Senate. She does not have to do a Keenan. The power brokers will do a Keenan to her if she doesn’t play ball (especially since the senator is a female)
    Her brains are on display when ROC unleashed cops on AWU and when her staffers leaked the same to media. Her brains were on display when she let fly nasty rumours on Shorten female staff in Senate committee hearings.

  4. @David_Speers

    I’m told Australia’s intelligence agencies believe “the beast is stirring” since the passage of medevac bill. They are trying to ensure “the beast doesn’t wake up”. (The beast is the people smuggling trade fyi). Details on Sky after QT.>/p>

    Then the intelligence agencies would be doing the exact opposite of what Morrison is trying to do. He wants boats to come flooding in, as evidenced by reopening CI. He and Dutton are loudly broadcasting “welcome boat people” to people smugglers and their clients.

  5. Christmas Island will be a hard place to prevent information from being disseminated.

    There are many non -Government locals in a relatively small area, all possessed of mobile phones, computers and access to the mainland.

    Any boat people arriving will be able to reveal where they came from, and their motivation.

    The truth will out.

  6. John Hewson analyses Scotty’s latest ScoMoFaux Silly Stunt ™.

    “On Wednesday, Morrison announced he was reopening the Christmas Island detention centre to deal with an expected influx of boat arrivals as a direct result of the government’s defeat in Parliament on this bill. Even if that were true, and it patently is not, I thought John Howard had excised Christmas Island from the mainland, and thereby from access to our legal and other processes?

    This is surely a stunt to rival Morrison’s knee-jerk announcement in the throes of the Wentworth byelection that he planned to move our Israeli embassy. Moreover, won’t it be counterproductive to announce to the people smugglers that we are “open for business again” before there is any evidence that the legislation provides them incentive to relaunch their boats?

    Morrison will also need to justify the anticipated $1.4 billion cost of reopening Christmas Island.”

    https://www.smh.com.au/national/pm-attempts-to-rescue-his-sinking-boat-with-a-sea-of-fear-20190213-p50xg7.html

  7. Cash is in the senate until 2022. She will be 49 in the middle of the year so it may be a matter if she wants another career in the likely event she finds herself in opposition soon.
    I doubt the AWU business would force her out unless there ends up being criminal charges. That seems unlikely.
    She has a hide thicker than any tank and would simply ride out any scandal. Being in opposition rather than government would help as the focus will be elsewhere
    As one of the alleged architects of the WA Liberals distastrous flirtation with One Nation at the last state election she may well have made some enemies in the organisation but I would expect her to be a senator until she decides she doesn’t want to be.

  8. Late Riser says:
    Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 5:57 pm
    Re-opening the Christmas Island detention centre seems to be pretty dumb. I can’t think of a reason for Labor not to just point out how irresponsible Morrison is being, that an election is due, and that a Labor government will close the centre again.

    Yes, that would be a good idea. At the same time stating that they (Labor) are not prepared to waste a billion dollars on it as the Liberals seem to be.

  9. Australian immigration detention…

    Come for the crippling mental illness.

    Stay for the medical treatment.

    That’s an attractive pull factor alright.

  10. I see some other contributors – like myself – are not at all put out that some issues that have been in the too hard basket for Labor – boats, immigration, tax and the like – are now, due to Morrison’s all-or-nothing approach, now on the table. Time to hit him and the Liberals in the many, many weaknesses which his tunnel-vision obsession with “boats” he hopes to use to paper mache over his pathetic attempt to lead the country.

  11. testing
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  12. citizen @ 7:07

    If that tweet by Greg Barnes is true thats a pretty big story in current context, and MASSIVELY damaging to the Libs. Dumping the “turn back” policy for pure political reasons in the lead up to an election??

    Its so big i’m going to reserve judgement on the truth of it or not for now. 🙁

  13. Matt31 @ #681 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 6:49 pm

    Nine News just now. 14 thousand people have been waiting in Indonesia for the slightest change to our border protection laws. Then a promise to interview some in the coming days. Welcome to the next three months! Sigh!

    14 thousand is not even a drop in the bucket compared to our current migrant intake.

    But I guess that annoying little fact won’t even get a mention 🙁

  14. trying to get this one to display – Ive inserted the 3 # before and after

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    will attempt to post in another hour or so

  15. And who has been telling the people smugglers this little porkie?

    New boats law ‘creates a problem’
    7:12PMBEN PACKHAM, RICHARD FERGUSON
    PoliticsNow | Peter Dutton says people-smugglers are aware it is now easier to order the medical transfer of refugees to Australia. (Oz headline)

  16. And this one from Graeme Morris….

    “So, do Australian family members waiting in queues for medical treatment have to go further back in the line while illegal migrants queue jump again?”

  17. Morrison has gone beyond all reason in broadcasting to the people smugglers to come on over. How many deaths at sea will his bitter little pentecostal heart bare to get voted back in.

  18. I have always thought that Abbott’s 7 30 interview where he started “we stopped the boats …” in answer to a question about I think the economy was the moment Turnbull decided to strike.

    If Morrison wants to talk about boats until May while Labor’s focus is on the things that matter – jobs, health, education, welfare, the environment – that’s fine with me.

  19. A big shout out to whoever earlier today here noted that the Coalition always talk about “Boats” not “Boat people”. I have been thinking about this all afternoon, and realise it is a deliberate use of a trope to dehumanise refugees and asylum seekers.

    In the late 1970s Fraser era the talk was always about “Vietnamese Boat People”.

    But calling them people is obviously dangerous as it humanises them – they are people like us.

    Far better to say “Stop the Boats” – just saw Shouty Morrison saying this on ABC24.
    And talk about numbers of boats etc etc.

    And make sure none of your Coalition members EVER say “Boat People”

  20. Hewson..”Morrison will also need to justify the anticipated $1.4 billion cost of reopening Christmas Island.”

    No he doesn’t the whole & only idea is to blame Labor for the expense.
    Labor has to go on the front foot & question the whole cost of Operation Sovereign Boarder .. not really as it just emboldens the Potato

  21. “Graeme Morris expressing concern for Australias poor.

    A first time for everything, I guess ….”

    That’s a grossly unfair canard Fulvio. Tories often express concern for the poor: that’s what A-list society charity functions are for – an opportunity to virtue signal, get one’s mug into the society pages, network, ease one’s conscience about minimising tax and cutting government programs. Drink some extremely expensive piss. All tax deductible of course 😉

  22. Rossmcg says:
    Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 8:08 pm
    I have always thought that Abbott’s 7 30 interview where he started “we stopped the boats …” in answer to a question about I think the economy was the moment Turnbull decided to strike.

    If Morrison wants to talk about boats until May while Labor’s focus is on the things that matter – jobs, health, education, welfare, the environment – that’s fine with me.

    That’s what I was thinking. If that’s all he’s got I think he’s in a lot of trouble.

  23. At what stage do the remaining moderate Libs in the Parliament say enough is enough!

    The last true right of centre moderate was probably Marcus Aurelius.

    But seriously, the tag ‘moderate Liberal’ was only ever a means to an end for these wets.

  24. Looking forward to seeing the first Newspoll after this vote disaster for ScuMo and his Gang… Incidentally, the poll will also gauge the effect of the demented campaign of lies and scaremongering that started a second after the vote….

    Once ScuMo and his gang realise that the demented campaign of lies and scaremongering is leading them nowhere…. What are they going to do?

  25. I am 100% interested in the view of pegasus and Rex Douglas about this called stirring and awaking of the beast , which the pro coalition media and libs/nats are propagandising about

  26. Price interviewing a bloke from Christmas Island who is not at all impressed with Morrison’s decision to re-open the facility there. Says it’s a waste of money because there are no medical facilities there.

  27. Alpo
    The polling in Victoria made it pretty clear people were not impressed with the Liberals attempts to demonize a section of he community; but they kept on sailing. If some adults don’t show up we have to put up with this until the election.

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