Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor

Shortly after Newspoll found the Coalition’s tentative momentum grinding to a halt, Essential gives them their worst result since August.

Essential Research has come out with a second poll in consecutive weeks, the previous one having departed from its normal practice in having a longer field work period and a later release, tailored to work around the interruption of the long weekend. Coming after a period in which a media narrative of Labor taking on water over franking credits has taken hold, the results of the latest poll are striking: the Coalition has sunk four points on the primary vote to 34%, Labor is up two to 38%, the Greens and One Nation are steady on 10% and 7% respectively, and Labor’s two-party lead has blown out from 52-48 to 55-45. Other questions relate to the banking royal commission: you can read more about them from The Guardian, or await for Essential’s full report, which I assume will be with us later today.

UPDATE: Full report here. The poll was conducted Wednesday to Monday from a sample of 1067.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,398 comments on “Essential Research: 55-45 to Labor”

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  2. IoM
    says:
    Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 5:56 pm
    Following from jenauthor above, it is interesting to note that our state parliaments tend to use Legislative Assembly and Legislative Council.
    __________________________
    Because they derive from the Colonial Parliaments which were subservient to the House of Commons. As was the tradition in Canadas provinces prior to their Confederation.

  3. There have been innumerable tournaments of game theory cooperate vs cheat and almost inevitably tit-for-tat is is the most reliable strategy.

  4. Who lets their phone out of their sight for more than 5 minutes?

    Members of the administrative committee have said they suspect the petition is an attempt to stall an investigation into former vice-presidents Marcus Bastiaan and Paul Mitchell, who were outed in December for allegedly using racist and homophobic slurs in texts and Facebook messages to refer to party members.

    Mr Bastiaan and Mr Mitchell both denied they were behind the messages, claiming they were victims of stolen identity and the messages were sent from their phones by other people.

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/victorian-liberal-infighting-threatens-to-derail-election-campaign-20190212-p50x8t.html

  5. jenauthor @ #643 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 4:54 pm

    In a nutshell – and I am skimming over detail here:

    The term house for govts etc. goes all the way back to ancient Egypt. The word ‘pharaoh’ morphed from ‘per aoh’ (spelled variously according to the translators) means Great House and Pharaoh’s wife was often referred to as the ‘house’ of the king/lord (this is also arguably where we get the term lord for the Christian god as it was how people referred to Pharaoh – a ‘god’ on earth).

    You also have, through the ages, the concept of the king/ruler/grandee … whatever as living in the ‘big house’ in many cultures and over time the reference has morphed as the ruler became not a single person, but a family and or a group … which eventually led to governments being aligned with the term.

    In Rome, the governing body (senate, met in what was known as the senate house).

    In Westminster system – the upper house (upper class in England ‘house of lords’) refers to the knighted Lords (barons) who became the chief lawmakers after King John/Magna carta etc. The commons (lower house) formed from the common people when democracy was further extended.

    Many countries have different names for their houses. We use representatives (reps of the common people) and the senate (which harks back to Roman times in some ways by having the final say)

    jen

    I would be careful about derivation of the word Lord. it is more likely to have come from Lud (nudd) who was one of the ancient British Gods and probably a gave his name to Ludsgate in London.

    also do we not use the term “housed” to mean located under a roof – we house machinery and tools and we house offices and businesses.

  7. There used to be a bit of a meme that it always rained more under Labor.
    This referred to the Coalition’s propensity to generate droughts.
    But that was Before Global Warming.
    Now the Coalition is generating droughts, dust storms, gutted rivers, dead fish, dead cattle, dead every little thing.

  9. Boerwar @ #656 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 6:07 pm

    There used to be a bit of a meme that it always rained more under Labor.
    This referred to the Coalition’s propensity to generate droughts.
    But that was Before Global Warming.
    Now the Coalition is generating droughts, dust storms, gutted rivers, dead fish, dead cattle, dead every little thing.

    Bob Hawke broke the drought in 1983!

  13. I think Baastian’s day’s as a private school boy Machiavelli are well and truly over. Lets hope so anyway. What an incompetent racist, any racist with any talent wouldn’t leave digital evidence!

  16. “Again, this isn’t Morrison’s doing. He didn’t bring this argument back to parliament. He was merely looking around for something to belt the Opposition with, to try to ameliorate the damage likely to be done at the May election … and look just like the Tampa in 2001, it’s arrived, right on time”

    CAROLINE OVERINGTON Australian Editorial today.

    The regressive right are convinced they’ve found the ‘rabbit in the hat’ saviour they desperately need to win the 2019 election . Don’t they realise that the echo chamber they live in is falling apart around them. Lets hope they don’t get it, ever.

  18. Mr Morrison’s constant harping on about Mr Shorten has been reminding me of something for days, and I finally pinned the memory down: a pamphlet written by Colley Cibber in response to his self-appointed enemy Alexander Pope, with the splendidly elegant title “A Letter from Mr. Cibber, to Mr. Pope, inquiring into the motives that might induce him in his Satyrical Works, to be so frequently fond of Mr. Cibber’s name”.

  19. Actually I need to qualify that – because ancient Celtic/British traditions were primarily oral it is difficult to know the sources of their god-names etc. and also whether or not they remained the same or morphed over time as newer cultures blended/mixed.

    Egypt had a written tradition so its origins are more easily verified and remained more stable.

  23. C@tmomma@6:04pm
    Like nath you reversed your decision not to contribute to PB. The only difference is that some bloggers asked you to reverse whereas nobody requested the same with nath. 🙂

  26. The Guardian cops some flak here, some deserved, some not and a lot directed at a particular individual, Katharine Murphy.

    But give them credit for actually using the word lie in relation to Morrison’s and Dutton’s comments on the medevac bill.

    Not many in the media, and certainly nobody at the ABC, Murdoch or the Nine networks newspapers would likely be so bold.

  29. An MSM article claims that Labor will launch Mediscare 2.0 for the election.

    That’s really only a partial antidote to retireetaxscare, negativegearingscare, paedophileswillgetyouscare, hordesofasiansonboatsscare, etc etc.

  30. Let’s face it… ScoMo is pissed off at the Medevac bill’s passing because it strikes at the very heart of his success in politics: bashing Boat People.

    He even had a trophy made to celebrate his xenophobic prowess, and then presented to himself. That’s how fucked in the head he is over seeing it all slip away via a simple act of common sense and humanity.

    Ever since he advised the Howard Liberal party room, way back in the noughties, to go in hard on Muslim “illegals”, ScoMo has dined out and otherwise prospered politically on how tough and arrogant he is when it comes to foreigners invading our shores.

    He revelled in the secrecy, the “on water matters”, flying up to Nauru with Abbott when in opposition to bribe their corrupt (but bankrupt) coconut government, plus the sheer authoritarianism of the true conviction politician that he was able to display (and that smirk!). Boats MADE ScoMo the man he is. He won’t let them go. This time it’s personal.

    And there lies hope.

    Just as it was easy to predict that Michaelia Cash would let her hate for Labor and generally spiteful nature get the better of her, it’s easy to predict that Morrison – especially with Dutton whispering in his ear to go in hard (and perhaps not particularly invested in whether he succeeds or not) – will overplay his hand. He wants to re-live the Good Old Days, bring back the glory that made him famous and powerful, that (in his mind) achieved the Prime Ministership for him. The smartarse who smartarsed his way from failed tourism supremo with a Prosperity God to inspire him into the Top Job will do anything to preserve that triumph.

    The man’s mad, probably certifiably. He’s clearly on a short fuse all the time. Niggle him a little and he goes off like a Roman candle. Every single time. It’s why he keeps getting sacked. He comes on too strong. He’s too intense. Every room he’s in ends up burning to the ground. It’s all coming crashing down if the public begins to doubt his Boats brilliance. Why do people think he’s such a joke all the time? Make the pain stop!

    Don’t worry. ScoMo will overdo it. Nothing surer. Three months really IS a long time in politics.

  31. citizen @ #677 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 6:43 pm

    An MSM article claims that Labor will launch Mediscare 2.0 for the election.

    That’s really only a partial antidote to retireetaxscare, negativegearingscare, paedophileswillgetyouscare, hordesofasiansonboatsscare, etc etc.

    The liberalwomenwhoaintgoingtotakeitanymorescare is the one causing the most concern for the Libs.

  32. Nine News just now. 14 thousand people have been waiting in Indonesia for the slightest change to our border protection laws. Then a promise to interview some in the coming days. Welcome to the next three months! Sigh!

  33. nath@6:13pm
    “racist with any talent wouldn’t leave digital evidence”.
    I was under the impression that racist do not have any talent other than inflaming the feelings of fellow travelers. But then some may point to some successful politicians in US who occupy high positions.

  35. No change has been made to border protection, we just have a demented Prime Minister wanting to relive his heyday in the immigration portfolio, where he delighted in making sure human beings suffer in order to stick it to Labor.

  36. I say – Bring On Project Fear! Maybe I’m too influenced by what happened here in Vic: the murdochracy, the Libs and their various flying monkeys cranked up the dolby on up crime, gangs and dog-whistling to 11 and the result was…. nothing. It would be great if we got the full burger with the lot on all those so-called ‘can’t go there issues’: can’t be soft on national security and can’t talk tax and voters just sailed serenely on. Let’s let them give it their best shot and wreck their political/business model for good.

  37. “Greensborough Growler says:
    Wednesday, February 13, 2019 at 2:29 pm
    I believe Cash is in the witness box on Friday.”

    Will she attempt to have the whiteboard in the witness box with her, as a sort of emotional support?

  39. Geetroit @ #685 Wednesday, February 13th, 2019 – 6:56 pm

    I say – Bring On Project Fear! Maybe I’m too influenced by what happened here in Vic: the murdochracy, the Libs and their various flying monkeys cranked up the dolby on up crime, gangs and dog-whistling to 11 and the result was…. nothing. It would be great if we got the full burger with the lot on all those so-called ‘can’t go there issues’: can’t be soft on national security and can’t talk tax and voters just sailed serenely on. Let’s let them give it their best shot and wreck their political/business model for good.

    Couldn’t agree more.

  40. BB@6:47pm
    “ScoMo is pissed off”
    Then why did Andrew Probyn of ABC wrote that the Medevac bill is detrimental to Shorten. Although Murdoch press wrote the same I do not give any credence to their writings.
    What is with MSM, who do not want us to show any compassion to asylum seeker?

  41. “14 thousand people have been waiting in Indonesia for the slightest change to our border protection laws.”

    What proportion of the 14,000 would be willing to get on a throwaway boat for a risky ocean passage, be intercepted by Australian authorities, exiled to a remote island for 5+ years, get very sick, be evacuated to Australia, be treated…

    It’s utterly absurd.

  47. Morrison is attempting to poison the well or set fire to Rome. Take your metaphorical pick.

    FDOTM sees it. See Panel 5
    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/13/is-the-government-embattled-is-this-a-massive-victory-for-the-opposition-what-does-it-mean

    PM (frowning): “Quick give me the megaphone. Which way is Indonesia?”
    Person: “I think it’s that way Prime Minister”
    PM (with megaphone): “I said OUR BORDERS ARE MUCH WEAKER NOW…”

  50. Greg Barnes is generally on the side of the LNP. It’s interesting that he would spill the beans. Maybe there are enough people in Border Force who are disgusted with Morrison/Dutton to sabotage their plans.

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