Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. Confessions @ #2236 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 9:27 pm

    David SpeersVerified account@David_Speers
    11h11 hours ago
    Greens Leader says his party will NOT support Labor’s current amendments on medical transfers. He is demanding a time limit on Ministerial decisions. This is a “deal breaker”.

    So the Greens were initially opposed?

    Not only that RDN claimed the changes were worse than doing nothing.

    Right now, the concern that we have – and this is based on considered legal opinion – is the amendments put forward by the Labor party may make the situation worse than doing nothing.

    The phones probably melted at greens HQ with angry greens seeing another Rudd ETS appearing…

  3. Rocket Rocket

    …if Morrison were a strong politician (rather than just a shouty ad-man)

    That’s a really good point. Morrison is an “ad-man”. He believes in the sale, not the product.

  4. Of course, the Coalition does not discuss ‘on water maters’…. hahaha…

    I knew things were going to get very, very ugly heading into this election. I can barely stomach what the next 2 months have to offer.

  6. Vogon Poet

    The phones probably melted at greens HQ with angry greens seeing another Rudd ETS appearing

    (What is with this time of night?) I wanted to post this earlier but didn’t for fear of a hostile response. I am wondering if Di Natalie damaged his leadership credentials today.

  8. Goll @ #936 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 9:30 pm

    Lots of talk around about Bob Katter. Most of you havent met the man.
    Ths great survivor reads the game in a seemingly convoluted manner but history suggests has an uncanny ability to come out on top.
    Bob knows when to park his ute outside the best pub. He’ll do it again if it prolongs his tenure. So don’t be surprised if Labor becomes the recipient of some very FNQ Katter fortune.
    Bob always places himself in the best position for Bob. Backing Morrison and co. isn’t in Bob’s best interests.

    Goll

    I would once have fully agreed with you, but I do rather wonder if katter has lost the plot a little recently. Not as quick etc. He was pretty stupid over Anning and I suspect he had no idea what a racist nutter Anning is. Katter has never been racist and indeed is well for it.

  9. Labor initially didn’t want a time limit on Ministerial decisions about medical evacuations; the Greens wanted a time limit of 24 hours; the compromise that was legislated was a time limit of 72 hours.

    It is a damn good thing that the Greens were involved.

  10. The Greens weren’t wedged by Labor. Labor’s amendments in the HoR were unnecessary.

    The Greens compromised, just as they have done before, debunking once more the myth perpetuated by the MSM and the two major parties that they do not compromise.

    The cross benchers – Bandt, Wilkie, Phelps, Sharkie, McGowan and Banks – comprised by supporting Labor’s amended amendments achieved after negotiations, thereby saving Labor having to back down and vote for the same bill as they did in the Senate.

    Fortunately, the crossbenchers didn’t lose sight of what mattered, viz an improved med evacuation process.

  12. How about today, which was a very good day, we thank ALL the players and agree that they all did well.
    The independents and Minor parties, the greens and Labor.

    Congrats to ALL of them. Let us not score points. There will be time enough for that but tonight lets just be happy.

  13. Boerwar says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 7:02 pm

    ‘mikehilliard says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 6:47 pm

    bw

    I do like the Drum.

    -0-

    And you can see why Ellen Fanning ought to be Tony Jones replacement on Q and A and not the supercilious Virginia Trioli or heaven forbid the unctuous Andrew Denton.

  15. DTT

    Yes – I don’t think RDN did himself any damage. This is just the argy-bargy of Parliament, usually reserved for minority lower houses, or proportional representation upper houses.

    Just unusual for it be happening among the opposition and cross-benchers where it actually mattered.

  16. I subscribe to the thinking that the only amendment Labor really wanted was the application to the current group of asylum seekers, to avoid the ‘National Security’ scare potential, and that the other 2, in particular the delay period, where deliberate red-herring / fig leaf amendments designed exactly to get the Greens in a tizz then compromise on.
    I think politically that was played masterfully, and this time for an actual worthy cause.

  17. The amended bill has to now go back to the Senate.

    If it passes in the Senate, how long will it take for the legislation to be enacted?

    If it is not dealt with in the current sitting of parliament, how long will its enactment be delayed?

  18. Good outcome today. But a little too much Labor back slapping in here. You’d think this legislation was their idea the way some of you are carrying on.

    A more realistic analysis is that Labor scored a big political hit on the government by not going to water as soon as the magic words ‘national security’ were uttered. But huge credit to the cross bench and minor parties, who seem to be genuinely trying to improve the lot of asylum seekers. Labor’s record before today in that department speaks for itself, unfortunately.

  19. Zeh @ #2216 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 10:02 pm

    I subscribe to the thinking that the only amendment Labor really wanted was the application to the current group of asylum seekers, to avoid the ‘National Security’ scare potential, and that the other 2, in particular the delay period, where deliberate red-herring / fig leaf amendments designed exactly to get the Greens in a tizz then compromise on.
    I think politically that was played masterfully, and this time for an actual worthy cause.

    Me too. But what annoys me is that this is seen as somehow underhanded. People need involvement not just observed consent. Leadership provides the outline and trusts in people to step up and get it right. Today that happened. It is smart. It builds trust.

  20. William

    One positive of a day like today with

    1. New poll (Essential 55-45)
    2. Good news story (Hakeem al-Araibi’s return to Asutralia)
    3. Political Drama with positive ending (Medevac Bill)

    is that it has encouraged quite a few people to post here, some for the very first time, and some after long absences.

    Today, the first day of probably the last sitting of Parliament before the election, felt like the first victory on the long road to liberation from this awful government.

  21. New poll shows Americans view Mueller as more credible than Trump.

    As the special counsel investigation seems to be nearing its final stage, Americans view Robert S. Mueller III as far more credible than President Trump, but the public has scattered and partisan perceptions of Mueller’s motives and what he has found so far, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll.

    Fifty-six percent to 33 percent, more say they trust Mueller’s version of the facts than Trump’s. And by nearly as wide a margin, more believe Mueller is mainly interested in “finding out the truth” than trying to “hurt Trump politically.”

    Nearly two years into his investigation, Mueller has charged 34 people and secured guilty pleas from some of Trump’s closest advisers, including his former campaign chairman, deputy campaign chairman, national security adviser and personal lawyer. The special counsel has alleged 25 Russians, including 12 military officers, conspired to hack Democrats’ emails and wage a social media influence campaign to sway the outcome of the 2016 election, and described in astonishing detail how they did so.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/americans-view-mueller-as-more-credible-than-trump-but-views-of-his-probe-are-scattered/2019/02/11/dbf4b146-2e14-11e9-86ab-5d02109aeb01_story.html?utm_term=.55c4c4181e46

  22. DtT
    Certainly the Anning thing was puzzling, but Bob cut it loose quickly and with precision.
    Bob is also keeping an eye out for the family dynasty, knowing thd legacy is passed on, if worked on.
    Bob’s reading it alright, the aim is always to be batting on the winning side at the end of thd day’s play.
    Bob considers his voters 1st, 2nd and 3rd right after Bob and now the Robbie.
    The dams in FNQ are important but not as important as to be seen to want the dams.

  23. Goll

    Yes he is a good local member, which is hard when his electorate is 70% of the size of NSW.

    He is what Nationals MPs pretend to be – a voice for their electorate rather than bigger interests.

  24. Goll

    I have a bit of time for Katter.

    Oddly enough despite his anti green stance he when minister in Qld introduced solar power to remote indigenous communities – or so i have been told.

  25. Green shoots of a deal over preventing another shutdown.

    Key lawmakers announced a tentative deal late Monday that would avert another government shutdown at the end of the week while denying President Trump much of the money he’s sought to build new walls along the U.S.-Mexico border.

    The agreement came together during intense hours of closed-door negotiations at the Capitol, as lawmakers resurrected talks that had fallen apart over the weekend in a dispute over new Democratic demands to limit immigrant detention. Democrats ultimately dropped some of those demands, which had come under fire from Republicans, clearing the way for a deal.

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/top-lawmakers-meet-to-revive-stalled-border-talks-with-shutdown-days-away/2019/02/11/3cd0fc1a-2dff-11e9-813a-0ab2f17e305b_story.html?utm_term=.ef9cba39bd50

  26. Let’s be more specific

    The election of Phelps was the catalyst for what played out in the parliament today – and this is what she campaigned on in a seat where she replaced a Liberal Party prime minister

    That apart we had the Speaker and the negotiating and skills of Labor including particularly that contributing Doctors would not be remunerated thereby negating the tactic of the government

    I reiterate

    Phelps campaigned on issues such as this and accordingly took a blue ribbon seat off the Liberal Party

    That is the danger for Morrison and his response

    The Liberal Party has lost significant of its base and today is just another example

    Then you get to climate change

  27. Morrison and Dutton have sent their money man to pay the people smugglers to launch a few boats which Border Force has been told not to intercept?

    Blame Shorten for boats: Morrison
    10:59PMSIMON BENSON. BEN PACKHAM
    Scott Morrison has declared every new people-smuggling boat ­arrival will be “on Bill Shorten’s head” after the medivac bill was pushed through. (Oz headline)

  29. Anti Green is straight out of the ten commandments for being a FNQ politician. The indigenous solar installations is not so much anti Green as practical politics in FNQ.
    FNQ has a stock market code look about it.

  31. According to the ABC, Getup are now targetting Nicolle Flint in the seat of Boothby, suggesting that she is the most “backward” politician in South Australia.

    As a Boothby voter I would love to see her lose.

  33. The oz hacks are falling over themselves to portray scumos historic loss in parliament as a disaster for shorten, and all part of scumos political genius and cunning plan to destroy labor at the election. They are fucking delusional. In their telling ScuMo is a Jedi master -“you can strike me down, but I will become more powerful than you can ever imagine”.

  34. A more realistic analysis is that Labor scored a big political hit on the government by not going to water as soon as the magic words ‘national security’ were uttered. But huge credit to the cross bench and minor parties, who seem to be genuinely trying to improve the lot of asylum seekers. Labor’s record before today in that department speaks for itself, unfortunately.

    Sad, little, Trumpesque.

  35. I know there is still a glow about today’s parliamentary action, but in the outside world: Brexit Troubles the Irish.

    John Harris, England’s casual indifference to the border question has betrayed the post-Troubles generation

    The band’s drummer, Jason Feenan, 19, mentioned a video he had seen online of the then-Brexit secretary Dominic Raab being questioned by the Northern Irish MP Sylvia Hermon, and awkwardly admitting that he had never made time to read the Good Friday agreement. “Every household in the North has a copy of it,” Feenan marvelled. “You could read it in a day. And someone supposedly negotiating on our behalf couldn’t even be bothered.”

    Is this the start of Irish reunification?

  36. As we become consumed and narrowly focused on today’s events, it worth considering that today is just another skirmish in the process of undoing self- righteous arrogance of a coalition government with an unbending belief in their right to government for the benefit of their sub-section of Australia.
    They hate. Now they have another group to hate. And the group is dominated by women!
    I’m amused as the chance of a November election is routinely dismissed by commentators in the media and on PB as if this coalition and these particular player would stop at anything that would see them retain power and the rewards of power.
    I’m unsure of the State by State implications of a half senate election, but this mob will go down that path if that’s what is needed.
    If a poll or polls similiar to the new Essential poll continues to suggest a coalition wipeout, this mob won’t consider the future of the Coalition’s chances. They will drag out their tenure for as long as possible.
    The present players will not be in the game when the Liberals or Nationals are part of a future government.
    Does parliament even sit tomorrow? Do we live in Venaustralia? You have to wonder!

  37. Sustainable future says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 11:34 pm
    The oz hacks are falling over themselves to portray scumos historic loss in parliament as a disaster for shorten, and all part of scumos political genius and cunning plan to destroy labor at the election. They are fucking delusional. In their telling ScuMo is a Jedi master -“you can strike me down, but I will become more powerful than you can ever imagine”.

    Looks like Probyn (ABC) is following the same line.
    “Scott Morrison’s historic humiliation could have damaging consequences for Bill Shorten”
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-12/bill-shorten-inflicted-a-historic-humiliation-on-scott-morrison/10805252

  38. Listened to predictable responses from the L/NP today.

    They assume everyone in Australia hates refugees. For the last few years most of us have been a bit embarrassed about how we treated these human beings. When children are suicidal anyone here with children and grandchildren deserves to feel just a little uncomfortable.

    Those we heard shouting and carrying on today have not had the will or ability to solve the problem. Too slow dealing with Obama, couldn’t work it out with NZ, destroyed the Malaysian solution and haven’t been able to work with the UN. Just bullies who would let them rot in paradise while allowing tens of thousands to rock in by plane.

    The present situation is unacceptable. Scummo and Co could not solve it so move on and we will get someone who will at least try. Congratulations to the crossbench for having the courage to take a stand.

  39. PaulT says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 11:33 pm
    According to the ABC, Getup are now targetting Nicolle Flint in the seat of Boothby, suggesting that she is the most “backward” politician in South Australia.

    As a Boothby voter I would love to see her lose.

    ***************************************
    She has some extreme documented views around guns.

    I share your desire to see her gone.

    It would be nice to be represented by someone I can respect. 🙂

  40. How is Shorten so hopelessly unpopular that even winning a huge political victory is politicaly damaging to him?

    He just can’t catch a break, can he?

  41. “How much do you think Morrison will need to charter the Spanish Armada to transport boat people from Indonesia?”

    I can just see him proudly holding another little boat-shaped plaque with the words inscribed: “I started these”.

    Of course, if the boats start again before ScumMo leaves office, the obvious question will be, why can’t the Reichspotato, with a whole navy floating around in the Timor sea in the name of border security, make them stop?

    But the real nail in the coffin of the security paranoia election meme is what we have seen over the past decade: terror attacks in Australia caused by home grown Aussies suffering from drug addiction and or mental illness? Several. Terror attacks caused by refugees arriving via boat? Nil.

    What is the greatest threat to the security of average Australians? Lousy policy on health and drug enforcement.

  43. How is this believable?
    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-12/bill-shorten-inflicted-a-historic-humiliation-on-scott-morrison/10805252

    But the political dividend expected by the Coalition for being the one to stop the boats is potentially up-ended if the Coalition can lay ownership of any new boat arrival on Mr Shorten.

    How would that be? Morrison is in charge. Morrison is still responsible. Morrison is saying these changes will welcome the boats.

    the apparent inability of the Government to attract similarly attractive first-world options for the refugees haven’t helped.

    Really? Apparent? I guess he could just mean they haven’t been trying.

    With the fate of 110 or so children on Nauru becoming a subject of increasingly heated public attention, he and Immigration Minister David Coleman resolved to hasten their removal.

    Even Probyn thinks Morrison’s motives are selfish.

    Mr Morrison will make it his business to ensure this moment was truly a test of “character” — Mr Shorten’s.

    Something, something, shark, jumped?

    I can’t follow the logic.

  44. I’d love Flint to lose. She is quite detestable. But “SA’s most backwards politician” ? We have got Corey Bernardi and she hasn’t quite reached that level yet.

  45. Will all the Young Liberals now head to Wollongong for their education?

    Ramsay degree set for 2020
    12:00AMTIM DODD
    Wollongong has become the first Australian university to market a Ramsay Centre-sponsored degree in Western civilisation. (Oz headline)

  46. As another (new) Boothby resident, I can’t wait to see the back of Flint. With a 2.7% margin after the Redistribution, any publicity for her is bad publicity at the moment

  47. The scenario that a cohort of boats will come because of this bill specifically, seems pretty unlikely.
    However this governments screaming about it may well be sending a false impression to the people smugglers.
    Honestly I am looking forward to seeing the Government try and blame Labor for boat arrivals, let them try explain how a boat slipped though “Operation Silly Borders” where there is meant to be a navy scanning the waters to stop boats getting through, the kind of mental gymnastics to blame that on the medivac bill that will be hilarious… would be kinda embarrassing to watch really.

  49. Just heading off to bed but I have to confirm the BBC as relayed through News Radio played the Morrison parliament speech saying Shorten has weakened our borders and boats will come as his contribution speaking against the Bill.

    So congratulations Mr Morrison you have proved Mr Shorten exactly right.

    You are just a walking advertisement for people smugglers.

  50. Youse know how the Libs, especially Scott get a bit tiresome blaming Labour and Shorten for everything that is wrong in the kingdom and it all starts to sound like they have serious mental issues. What do you reckon the repetition of Labor being undermined by the evil Greens led by the great Satan the Black Wiggle sounds like.

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