Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor

The second Newspoll for the year finds no continuation of the Coalition’s recent improving trend.

After a period of improving poll results for the Coalition, the latest Newspoll records a tiny shift on primary votes to Labor, but not another to alter their existing lead of 53-47 from a fortnight ago. Labor is up one point on the primary vote to 39%, after a three-point drop last time, while the Coalition is steady on 37%, retaining their two-point gain in the last poll. The Greens are steady on 9%, while One Nation is down a point to 5%, the lowest it’s been in a year. Scott Morrison’s personal ratings are improved, with approval up three to 43% and disapproval down two to 45%, and his lead as prime minister out from 43-36 to 44-35. Bill Shorten is down one on approval to 36% and up one on disapproval to 51%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1567.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,273 comments on “Newspoll: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 24 of 46
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  1. Greensborough Growler @ #1131 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 10:14 am

    The Greens can always be relied upon to do the wrong thing!

    Labor started it by seeking to amend something that didn’t require amending. All for want of the courage to stare down an obvious (and obviously baseless) scare campaign.

    Ministers (and especially Ministers like Dutton) don’t need an indefinite timeline to make a decision. Particularly about people who have been in detention for years already. If we don’t already have thorough knowledge of their backgrounds by this point, then that’s Australia’s failure. The legislation shouldn’t exist merely to shield Australia from its own laziness/ineptitude.

  2. Matt31

    They just don’t seem to have the ability to campaign cleverly, and seem to find ways to over reach.

    Morrison has the best PR skills and leadership skills with which to encourage his people.

  3. guytaur
    says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 11:21 am
    BB
    The Bill has already passed the Senate. Didn’t you listen to Dreyfus last nigh?

    I would have thought any changes would have to go back through the senate?

  4. For those that missed it.

    Dreyfus said Labor is voting for the Bill as passed by the Senate. They are seeking Clarification.

    The bottom line Labor are voting for the Bill passed by the Senate. The Greens have no problem with that. They just have some problem with “Clarification

    It won’t stop Bandt voting for the Bill in the HOR.

  5. Question

    That’s why it was important to remember Dreyfus is a lawyer.

    When he is talking Clarification he is being precise with his words.

    Ignore the media and listen to what Dreyfus and Phelps have said.

    From what has been said the Bill is passing the HOR.

    Game over LNP loses.

  7. It’s looking increasingly like Labor voted for Phelps’s bill in the Senate in what they thought was the safe knowledge that it had no hope in the House. Now it looks like it might succeed, so suddenly they’re feeling wedged.

  8. a r
    says:
    Tuesday, February 12, 2019 at 11:22 am
    Labor started it by seeking to amend something that didn’t require amending. All for want of the courage to stare down an obvious (and obviously baseless) scare campaign.

    Limiting it to the existing refugee’s make’s it harder for the L-NP to ‘let a boat through’. I know that sounds conspiratorial, and I’m not sure how much they can influence ‘on water matters’, but I still wouldn’t be surprised if a boat suddenly appeared after the legislation was passed. That change makes it harder to blame the legislation. All very realpolitik I know.

  9. The big problem will be to get Katter to do his job and actually be present for the vote.

    He rarely attends … mostly when he asks a question

  10. Matt Thistlethwaite
    ‏Verified account @MThistlethwaite
    39m39 minutes ago

    Matt Thistlethwaite Retweeted Kristina Keneally

    First Liberal MP’s handing out membership forms at hearings, then requiring people to sign a Liberal petition before making a submission, now Liberal plants on @QandA. Unbelievable.

  11. At this point I cannot see any advantage, in terms of moral high ground or political tactics, in Labor not voting for the Phelps Bill as it was passed by the Senate. ScumMo will attack Labor as weak on boats whether it is true or not. But the boats are not the issue today they were ten years ago, except among those who will never vote Labor. But looking weak and indecisive in parliament is worse. Don’t blink, please Bill.

    If Labor passes the Phelp’s bill, given the disarray of the Greens, they have a fair chance of picking up votes from the Greens.

    Also either way, Labor has not handled this well tactically in the house. Their position has seemed messy and confused. Just get it done ASAP, then move on to all the other things the government can be embarrassed over, like not responding to the banking RC till after the election, Federal ICAC, etc.

  13. Channel 7 morning News theme is that the ScoMo gov in “embattled” facing 2 votes against it (medivac and extension) no hint that it is Labor that is in trouble 😎

  14. sprocket_ @ #895 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 9:58 pm

    The Murdoch press are gunning for Labor.
    The LNP are gunning for Labor.
    The Greens are gunning for Labor.

    Morning all, still catching up on last night’s discussions.

    If you haven’t noticed yet, clive palmer (he doesn’t warrant caps in my opinion) is also gunning for Labor. In fact, I’m beginning to imagine Channel 9 is sponsoring his ads, they are so prolific.

  15. Confessions @ #853 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:31 pm

    PuffyTMD @ #849 Monday, February 11th, 2019 – 7:25 pm

    Just as an aside, I am very excited. I found out that in the Blue Mountains of NSW there is the only Bodyfarm in the Southern Hemisphere and I have the forms on the way to donate my body to it when I kick the bucket.

    Where science is concerned, I am putting my whole body into it.

    You can donate your remains to universities for medical students and others to learn about human biology. I learned about human physiology through working with cadavers, and if you are healthy you should be able to do this.

    My dad has looked into this, there are a fair few requirements behind it. My mum is dead against it.

  17. Jen

    The confidence of both Dreyfus and Phelps is the Bill will pass.

    The media hype is from not understanding what Dreyfus said and listening too much to the Liberals.

    The direct word from the players is directly opposite to the media narrative.

    That is Labor Greens other crossbenches are working to pass the Bill not defeat it.

  18. Bushfire Bill @ #1073 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 9:02 am

    When I think of $50 billion sinking without trace on submarines that most likely will have zero effect in any future battle (because there won’t be one) I feel like tearing my hair out.

    Maybe we could launch some cruise missiles in tag-along war we get involved in to please the Yanks. They won’t do any good, other than for PR, and we’ll have to pay for them anyway (like we had to pay for our own bombs in Syria).

    Nukes are out. As soon as we go nuclear, then all our cities are legitimate targets (I know, they are already, but no so legitimately).

    Our manned subs need an artificial human habitat. A very high proportion of their operational systems will be used for only this.

    These subs will be sunk by drone submersibles, either air-dropped or put in place months or even years before to patrol our the seas outside our bases. These drones will cost at most hundreth, more likely a thousandth of the cost of a manned submarine. There will be hundreds, perhaps thousands of them available to be deployed as a result. Our manned, diesel subs (which have to surface regularly) won’t have a hope.

    No lectures, please, on how RF telemetry can’t penetrate below the surface to activate drones. It can: enough to transmit simple “Kill” orders. In any case, manned subs have the same limitation.

    I have a Chinese drone that cost me $1,300. It has 4 Ultra High Definition video, an electronic compass, sophisticated GPS, motion sensing cameras, obstacle avoidance, the ability to carry out a pre-programmed route, a range of 6 kilometres and many, many more advanced features. This is Chinese retail technology. It’s the technology the Chinese permit to be sold to the West. Imagine what their really secret technology can do!

    We had a manufacturing industry that employed tens of thousands of skilled workers, all over the country. It was the motor vehicle industry. For the submarine contract, the Coalition is boasting about a mere 2,800 jobs, and then only in South Australia (and you can bet that’s scraping together every single gig they could find that’s remotely connected to the contract and labelling it a “job”). It’s a pittance, employment-wize.

    We got rid of a perfectly good, advanced manufacturing industry that was costing the nation a pittance compared to $50 billion, and which employed many more workers, and have replaced it with a pretend industry that will probably never produce any product beyond advanced prototype stage. We got rid of the motor vehicle industry in a “Mine’s bigger than yours” bullshit exercise brought on by tough guy Joe Hockey, while Abbott cowered overseas under cover, at Mandela’s funeral.

    Now we have to start up a whole new industry, for which there really is no need other than to sate the testosterone surges of our chocolate soldiers so they can kid themselves we’re a world player.

    It’s idiotic. It’ll be out of date before the ink is dry on the drawings. We are – once again – fighting the next war with the technology, tactics and mindset of the last, maybe for as puerile a reason as propping up Chris Pyne’s seat.

    We saw Morrison yesterday trot out the old shibboleth that goes: “Labor spent the least on defence of any government since 1938 (and we know what happened just a year later, eh?)”

    Maybe so, and look what happened: we weren’t ready for the war that came on straight after… oh, wait. There wasn’t a war. Not a real war.

    There was only that one where our brave pilots dropped bombs from 25,000 feet onto mud-brick huts in Syria (and were back in the hanger in time for lunch). And the other one where our intrepid Diggers “trained” a few Afghani soldiers (who then ran away and gave their guns to the Taliban). Those were not “war” wars. They were target practice and parade ground duty. And we had those F18s used in Syria anyway. Didn’t need to buy new ones. I’d say “Smart procurement, Labor,” not “Shame, shame”.

    When you’re interrupting marriage ceremonies with 1,000 pound bombs you don’t need the latest technology. A Sopwith Camel could have done the job. Or a drone, using practically the same technology that my own drone has in it right now (in fact ISIS did just this, with the drones I’m talking about).

    If we want to go under the water to fight we should be developing a true deterrent system based on drone submersibles and aerial equipment. We could probably do it for $10 billion (OK, say $20 billion, the way our generals and Defence wallahs waste money) and get a better result, one that might scare at least someone that matters.

    BB

    What can I say

    5 stars

  19. Guytuar, “For those that missed it.

    Dreyfus said Labor is voting for the Bill as passed by the Senate. They are seeking Clarification.”

    Thats brexit claytons weasel words. The negotiation you have when you’re not having a negotiation.

    No this doesnt make sense G. It has been clearly reported that labor seek 3 *changes* to the ammendment, not “clarification”.

  24. A M @11:34,

    I seriously think Morrison would prefer a victory in the house.

    If passing the bill really ‘wedges’ the ALP, it means more Dutton hogging the headlines, which won’t help in all those seats where independents are running against the L-NP.

  28. Eryk Bagshaw
    ‏Verified account @ErykBagshaw

    New Wilson & Wilson: Tim Wilson may have breached privacy laws by failing to tell hundreds of people who signed up to a petition that their names, addresses, phone numbers and emails would be transferred to a multibillion-dollar fund manager. https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/liberal-mp-tim-wilson-faces-breach-of-privacy-claims-20190210-p50wtk.html … #auspol

    Craig Emerson
    ‏ @DrCraigEmerson

    Craig Emerson Retweeted Eryk Bagshaw

    Personal details provided to an official-looking website bearing Australia’s Coat of Arms, authorised by Tim Wilson MP as Chair of a Parliamentary Committee, were automatically passed on to a multi-billion dollar fund manager. Yet the PM insists there’s nothing to see here.

  29. What worries me is that the Libs can instruct Border Force (or whoever it is up there in northern waters) to “go easy” on a few boats and thereby produce a couple of them at Xmas Island that they can swear came directly as a result of Labor voting for the “Phelps” bill.

    The REAL question then becomes: does one boat constitute an armada? Has it gotten this silly?

    Should an entire country be cowering in fear that a few boats might get through?

    There will always be a few desperates who see a 1-in-10,000 chance of maybe fluking asylum (here, NZ, or the USA via Australia) as better than going crazy in Indonesia. I am sure, over the past 6 years, some have already tried, even under the present harsh laws, and been caught or unfortunately drowned on the way. And some may have made it all the way. then put into detention quietly.

    The thing is: we don’t have very much (or any?) information on whether this – a few boats slipping through – has happened already but, if the bill passes, you can bet your bottom dollar that ScoMo will suddenly discover how vital it is for the Australian voter to be immediately informed of On-Water Matters.

  30. Fozzie

    The medical opinion of a Doctor has to take precedence.

    This is Labor playing politics by mucking around with the already passed Senate Bill. If it fails it will be due to Labor not the Greens.

  34. @guytaur

    You are in lala Land.

    ABC Politics
    ‏Verified account @politicsabc
    10m10 minutes ago

    Greens leader Richard Di Natale has rejected Labor’s latest amendments to a bill aiming to fast-track medical evacuations from Nauru and Manus Island. #auspol

    Kristina Keneally
    ‏Verified account @KKeneally
    13h13 hours ago

    That means this is not their money. It is our money – all of us. We are giving away billions of dollars in a tax loophole by giving a refund to people who don’t pay any tax.
    Only 4% of Australians benefit from this tax loophole, but all of us pay for it.

    Business Insider AUS
    ‏Verified account @BIAUS

    Australian home loan lending plunges again
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australia-home-loan-lending-banking-royal-commission-2019-2

    Patrick Keneally
    ‏ @patrickkeneally
    2m2 minutes ago

    Tim Wilson to assess at least 97 franking credit inquiry submissions he helped write
    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/12/tim-wilson-to-assess-at-least-97-franking-credit-inquiry-submissions-he-helped-write?CMP=share_btn_tw

  35. So now the Greens has publicly announced they won’t support the amendments, basically they have destroyed any reasonable chance for them to negotiation on the medivac bill, as they have already said no…. bloody hopeless
    I expect the Bill will fail now.

  36. The medical opinion of a Doctor has to take precedence.

    I think that’s mistaken. You cannot have unelected doctors committing elected Ministers without the Minister have the final say. This is as long as the final say is based on due, demonstratable process being applied, not (as under the present conditions) on a whim that does not have to be too strongly justified.

    The reason so many came here, despite the Minister’s attempted veto, is that we DO have laws regarding medical treatment that courts can apply, and have applied. The Minister’s word is not the last word.

    I see this bill as relaxing some of the stupider powers of the Minister, making it harder for him or her to rule on a whim.

  37. pee Bee thank you for your reply…… People tend to too much rely on experts some times this is a wise course of action some times it is not. At least people can make sure they understand the experts. I concede that I may not know as much as I think about the area….. but a couple of points….. diversification of shares is a wise course of action relying on franking credits skews one’s shares to bank shares I think in Australia…… what happened before 2001 when the cash franking credits were not available…… ? I wonder why Australia is the only country in the world that allows a credit for company tax paid on a dividend then if their tax cannot fully use the franking sum then allow a further tax credit……..of course this area is complex

  38. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/live/2019/feb/12/morrison-shorten-coalition-labor-medical-evacuation-bill-kerryn-phelps-politics-live

    “The Labor Party need to decide if they’re going to work with the Greens, the crossbench, the refugee advocates, indeed many decent people right across the country who want to see sick people get the care when they need it,” he said.”

    Umm hello, they working with the cross bench and advocates.

    dickhead.

  39. It will be the black wiggle who will be the only one responsible for sinking this bill if he instructs not voting for it, the black wiggle alone. Labor and Phelps are trying to get this bill up, but if, due to ‘purity’ the black wiggle votes it down the blame can be only sheeted to him… And both Labor and Phelps can mention that fact when asked why the bill failed: It’s because of the black wiggle.

  40. When I cark it, I’d like to go to a body farm. Just leave me in a paddock somewhere to slowly fade away.

    Tibetan style Sky Burial for me.

  41. guytaur

    Your Green bias is showing. I would haw thought that all mature people would work towards an outcome to knock off the cruelty of Potato’s mob. That’s the main goal.

  43. Question

    If it was such a concern Labor should have voted against it in the Senate.

    This is why Labor tragic are already out with the pure nonsense to cover its Labor that by seeking changes to a Bill they already passed is scared by the politically motivated briefing about “pull” factors

    A “pull” factor of having to be suicidal or other life threatening event to qualify for transfer.

    BB is totally correct with why are we so scared of a few boats?

    The answer is the LNP are using White Australia era propaganda about hordes arriving against all logic and fact.

  44. You can always rely on the Greens to fuck up a good initiative.

    Their opposition means the poor blighters on Nauru and Manus who really do need medical attention will have to endure another several months of suffering because the Greens were too pure (and wanted to embarrass Labor too badly) to help them.

    London to a brick they will blame Labor for this. The Greens are infuriating in their piousness.

  46. Lizzie

    Di Natale is talking about the harder to get help. That means he is talking about the delay part the Bill has to address.

    It has to be done for speed in a medical emergency

    Measures Labor agreed with in the Senate before they got scared by the LNP

  47. Bushfire Bill @ #1192 Tuesday, February 12th, 2019 – 11:58 am

    You can always rely on the Greens to fuck up a good initiative.

    Their opposition means the poor blighters on Nauru and Manus who really do need medical attention will have to endure another several months of suffering because the Greens were too pure (and wanted to embarrass Labor too badly) to help them.

    London to a brick they will blame Labor for this. The Greens are infuriating in their piousness.

    Luckily in this case both Labor and Phelps (who instigated the bill) can say they tried but were sunk by the black wiggle. 😡

  48. Richard Di Natale going to Sky News for interviews, means Greens are no longer a Environmental Party.

    The worst thing you can do is go to Murdoch.

  50. An argument that a bill can’t be supported because it adds time seems contradictory. How much time is added by not supporting the bill?

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