The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.
UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:
• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.
• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.
• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.
UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.
Steve777, some people eschew multiple investments – for instance, avoiding bank interest is a no brainer.
I think your example of shares being less than stellar using 2006 is a bit disingenuous. It was just before the GFC. I think if you bought shares after 2008 you are still well ahead.
How are Labor planning to tax unfranked dividends received by investors who are below the tax free threshold? Will there be some tax or no tax? Since Labors policy is to withhold all company tax paid on franked dividends whether or not an individual is above or below the tax-free threshold, would it not be consistent to also tax unfranked dividends for recipients who do not earn above the tax free threshold?
Mr Gaul fears he will have nothing t0 leave his children because of Labor’s imputation credit reforms.
Looks like they might get a better house than my sons will inherit.
Money saved for retirement,whether in or out of superannuation, is that. Money for retirement. Not to make your kids rich.
Have relative in the insurance industry who continually reminds me that they factor in cost of climate change as one of biggest risks they have to carry.
Chris Kenny is either a fool or disingenuous
The polls seem to be moving pretty rapidly back to the Morrison mob.
He does have one big advantage – God is on his side.
Add in Murdoch, franking credits, Bowen and Shorten, and it’s hard to see how he will be beaten.
Rossmcg,
Mr Gaul’s a long-standing Liberal Party operative – see this article from 2008: https://www.theage.com.au/national/lobbyists-and-the-new-balance-of-power-20080306-ge6t69.html
Trump’s inauguration committee accused of money laundering and false statements in SDNY subpoena
Donald Trump’s inaugural committee has been accused of money laundering and making false statements in a subpoena from prosecutors with the Southern District of New York.
CNN’s Shimon Prokupecz reported on Twitter that on the cover of the subpoena, prosecutors alleged that the committee partook in “conspiracy against the US, false statements, mail fraud, wire fraud, money laundering, inaugural committee disclosure violations, and laws prohibiting contributions by foreign nations and contributions in the name of another person.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2019/02/trumps-inauguration-committee-accused-money-laundering-false-statements-sdny-subpoena/
The Toorak Toff,
Two polls right after summer within the MoE does not a ‘rapid move’ make.
Journo asks a question which includes the words Climate Change.
ScoMo: I’m not here to talk politics, I’m here to help the people of Townsville.
So CC is “just politics”? Not real?
Toby E
Well done ! The Oz bias exposed again with another Liberal stooge.
There’s been a slight move if Labor’s favour on Sportsbet – now 1.18 (Labor), 4.40 (Coalition).
Ladbrokes still 1.14 to 4.00
Vic,
I have a mate in reinsurance. All they talk about is climate change. Even changes in earthquake and tsunami risk: driven by climate change.
Toby Esterhase
Thanks. We need to see the whole picture so we won’t be fooled. 🙂
PeeBee @ #245 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 8:36 am
“NEVER”, really?
Not 300 years ago, 400, 500 etc!
It’s an event “unprecedented” in our experience, but like any other event does not prove or disprove climate change.
It’s just another piece in the overall puzzle. 🙂
poroti @ #168 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 11:51 am
Just yesterday, at the Eye Hospital, my son-in-law was regaling me with information about ancient TV (most of the performers now gone) series such as “F Troop” – probably precipitated by my statement as we approached the door “Where the f**karwe” modified to Heckarwe.
A talented and gorgeous woman who sweetened the dreams of many a young country boy.
🕊Rest in peace.🕊
Toby Esterhase @ #238 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 12:30 pm
And, ‘Communications Consultant’ = Spin Doctor?
phoenixRED @ #1081 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 12:10 pm
Originally by John Stuart Mill of Conservatives (by which he, as a Liberal MP meant Tories.
Stephen Long has put on weight and doesn’t look well.
Toby
Yep, Gaul is just a battler ekeing out his twilight years by the beach.
Labor, or those Greens, will probably want to tax his view next.
Samar – you appear to have the policy wrong.
The only change will be that those credits will not garner a cash handout. Credits will still apply to taxable income, but negative tax will not be repaid as cash.
jenauthor
says:
Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 12:54 pm
Samar – you appear to have the policy wrong.
The only change will be that those credits will not garner a cash handout. Credits will still apply to taxable income, but negative tax will not be repaid as cash.
_________________________
They will be if you are a recipient of a Centrelink allowance.
Technically speaking, there is no such thing as a fish.
SamraTW @ #252 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 8:41 am
Are you trolling?
You asked similar questions the other day and got responses.
Your questions today suggest you did not read them.
Barney I only posted two comments the other day and nothing was about unfranked dividends what so ever. Who is trolling exactly? Me or you?
The stooges get upset if they think you are against the ALP’s imputation policy. Watch out!
SamraTW says:
Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 12:41 pm
How are Labor planning to tax unfranked dividends received by investors who are below the tax free threshold?
a. Labor will do the same as what happens now. If you are below the tax free threshold (regardless of how your income is made up) you will not be taxed.
Will there be some tax or no tax?
a. No tax.
Since Labors policy is to withhold all company tax paid on franked dividends whether or not an individual is above or below the tax-free threshold, would it not be consistent to also tax unfranked dividends for recipients who do not earn above the tax free threshold?
a. This is a confusing statement but let me try to answer what I think you are asking.
Labor will not ‘withhold’ company tax if the individual recieved the dividend and has an income above the tax free threshold. They will have a tax liability and can use the franking credits to pay thay liability.
The last bit of the statement has me scratching my head. Why would the government tax anyone below the tax free treshhold? Just because the company had arranged its affairs so it didn’t pay company tax (and therefore only provided an unfranked dividend, why should the recipients of the dividend pay tax if they are below the tax free threshold?
To your point Samra. I think unfranked dividends are added to your rebate income, so if you are under the tax free threshold I think your good. That’s my guess.
SamraTW says:
Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 12:41 pm
How are Labor planning to tax unfranked dividends received by investors who are below the tax free threshold? Will there be some tax or no tax? Since Labors policy is to withhold all company tax paid on franked dividends whether or not an individual is above or below the tax-free threshold, would it not be consistent to also tax unfranked dividends for recipients who do not earn above the tax free threshold?
______________________________________
The assumptions/principles underlying that question are so utterly wrong that you are either completely ignorant or just out to sow confusion.
SamraTW @ #274 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:02 am
My sincere apologies if I confused you with someone else. 🙂
Samara technically hnfranked dividends paid to folks below the threashold will have no tax paid on the income either company or individual.
Re franking credits:
It’s very simple.
Franking credits can only offset the tax you owe the Australian people.
If you are lucky enough to have dividend income but not pay any tax then count your blessings not complain about a relatively small brake on your greed and selfishness.
Remain vigilant Barney. Don’t worry about mauling an innocent person who rarely posts. Maintain the guard dog stance. good boy.
I realize there are a lot of Boomers who post regularly here, but I have to say it’s really no surprise that the generation which was gifted free uni education and health care, a superannuation system which lifts them out of a subsistence aged pension model and who came into adulthood when you could buy a house and get change out of five year’s wages are having a whinge because they don’t get a cash refund on tax they haven’t actually paid, and because they might not get a tax concession to buy their umpteenth home and deprive a first home buyer of a shot at ownership.
Deadset the worst generation ever. Basically a giant cabal of leaners.
Davidwh says:
Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 1:07 pm
Samara technically hnfranked dividends paid to folks below the threashold will have no tax paid on the income either company or individual.
________________________________
A dividend is income in your pocket. It is taxable at the taxpayer’s marginal rate. Franking credits offset any tax payable by the taxpayer because the tax has been paid once at the relevant company rates. They should not be an effective refund of company tax.
TPOF @ #282 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:07 am
That’s the Labor policy.
At the moment it’s different and the franking credits have value even if you have no tax liability.
Burgey says:
Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 1:09 pm
I realize there are a lot of Boomers who post regularly here, but I have to say it’s really no surprise that the generation which was gifted free uni education and health care, a superannuation system which lifts them out of a subsistence aged pension model and who came into adulthood when you could buy a house and get change out of five year’s wages are having a whinge because they don’t get a cash refund on tax they haven’t actually paid, and because they might not get a tax concession to buy their umpteenth home and deprive a first home buyer of a shot at ownership.
Deadset the worst generation ever. Basically a giant cabal of leaners.
________________________________________
I fit that description – up to the point of being a whinger. I’m not. On the contrary, I count myself lucky. Anyone who reckons they are well-off solely on the basis of working hard is lying to themselves and to everyone else. No matter how hard you work, if luck is not on your side you will never get ahead.
TPOF,
You try telling PeeBee that!
So stick to companies that pay unfranked dividends and you will lose nothing to tax if you are under the tax free threshold, but if you go with companies that pay franked dividends you will all the franking credits. ok I think I have it. So the government will keep the tax paid for franked dividends and get nothing for unfranked dividends for people below the tax free threshold.
TPOF,
I don’t understand this argument being put about that “tax has already been paid by the company” on the franking credit income. I mean, I’ve paid tax on my earnings, yet I don’t think an argument from me that I therefore shouldn’t pay GST on everything I buy with my after-tax income would wash. And nor should it.
These boomer whingers need to get in the bin.
Andy Murray
Yep. Same with those on my end. It is mind boggling that the likes of Chris Kenny still talk crap
Samara yes.
Tim Wilson presumably teed up the “interview” between Jonathon Gaul and the Murdoch hack.
They were very sloppy choosing somebody whose political history was easily uncovered.
Burgey
says:
Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 1:09 pm
I realize there are a lot of Boomers who post regularly here, but I have to say it’s really no surprise that the generation which was gifted free uni education and health care, a superannuation system which lifts them out of a subsistence aged pension model and who came into adulthood when you could buy a house and get change out of five year’s wages are having a whinge because they don’t get a cash refund on tax they haven’t actually paid, and because they might not get a tax concession to buy their umpteenth home and deprive a first home buyer of a shot at ownership.
Deadset the worst generation ever. Basically a giant cabal of leaners.
_______________________________________
Free Uni was only a for a few years in the 70s. And most people didn’t go to uni then. There was only 3 tv channels, no internet, and porn was very expensive. If you wanted to find something out you either had to go to a library, or call someone, and they probably didn’t know the answer either. There was free health, but medicine was still kind of primitive. There was cheap houses, so that’s about it.
Toby Esterhase,
I Tweeted out that information re John Gaul and John Wren has picked it up and it’s going off!
Thank you!
Burgey
Please leave me out of that group.
I live mainly off my superannuation funds and happily acknowledge that but for Keating’s superannuation guarantee and the generous tax breaks afforded my retirement savings, not to mention the concessions that made a generous redundancy payment liable for very little tax , I would not be travelling as well.
I will never call myself a self funded retiree.
I had a lot of help.
Gittins belled the cat years ago.
http://www.rossgittins.com/2012/08/self-funded-retirees-are-kidding.html
Victoria
Kenny would be earning over $200,000 pa for writing such stuff. If Rupert and the Koch brothers decided the world was flat then he would happily argue the case for flatness. It’s a nice little earner.
Burgey says:
Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 1:09 pm
I realize there are a lot of Boomers who post regularly here….
Deadset the worst generation ever. Basically a giant cabal of leaners.–
What about the “leaners” who will support the end of cash refunds, CGT and Negative Gearing despite it hitting their wallets too ? To throw a whole generation under a bus is, to be polite, foolhardy.
SamraTW @ #289 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:13 am
Stick with companies that pay the best return on your investment.
In general this will most likely be unfranked dividends because they have not factored in the companies tax liability, where franked dividends have.
As for the Government keeping the tax paid on franked dividends, that is as it should be.
It is the tax that the company should have paid.
The franking credit should only ensure that you don’t pay that same amount of tax on those dividends as well.
At the moment if your taxable income is near or under the tax free threshold it doesn’t. 🙂
TPOF,
You try telling PeeBee that!
Tell me what?