The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.
UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:
• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.
• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.
• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.
UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.
Full List of Newspoll Guesses
PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.7 LNP
PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
No. Of PB Respondents: 52
ALP / LNP
53 / 47 Al Pal
52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
56 / 44 bilko
53 / 47 BK
53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
54 / 46 bug1
52 / 48 Confessions
99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
57 / 43 Gecko
55 / 45 Goll
56 / 44 grimace
55 / 45 guytaur
53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
53 / 47 imacca
52 / 48 It’s Time
56 / 44 KayJay
54 / 46 klasib
53 / 47 Late Riser
53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
54 / 46 Matt31
52 / 48 Mavis Smith
54 / 46 Mr Ed
54 / 46 Onebobsworth
54 / 46 Outside Left
54 / 46 pica
54 / 46 Player One
54 / 46 poroti
51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
53 / 47 Puffytmd
53 / 47 Quasar
53 / 47 rhwombat
51 / 49 Rossa
53 / 47 SilentMajority
57 / 43 Sprocket_
53 / 47 Socrates
54 / 46 Sohar
53 / 47 steve davis
52 / 48 Steve777
53 / 47 sustainable future
54 / 46 The real Dave
53 / 47 Tricot
53 / 47 Upnorth
53 / 47 Wayne
53 / 47 Yabba
52 / 48 Zoidlord
Quite frankly, to fully understand the Imputed Credits outcomes you would have to analyze the financial circumstances of each individual (or entity) who will lose eligibility.
Simply, at the end of the day (probably under advice from the likes of Wilson) you have to deliberately so arrange your financial circumstances to “qualify”.
And, unlike the social support system, you do not have to visit Centrelink and apply to receive the payment (and it is a payment to you).
Big A A
Malcolm Farr on AF:
19 March 2018: https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/brisbanes-new-labor-candidate-to-hit-peter-dutton-where-it-hurts/news-story/ceb43e6949c3db6c8405d9f97a91da17
PeeBee at 5.38
Please see this:
https://www.ato.gov.au/Super/Self-managed-super-funds/Investing/Tax-on-income/Tax-exemptions-in-the-retirement-phase/
This is also consistent with what my accountant told me.
poroti:
Apparently not all of them were taken with the attending Liberal MPs.
:large
Barney in Go Dau @ #2600 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 5:07 pm
Might be at your end Barney. They’re working for me using Opera or Chrome on a Windows 10 PC.
Confessions @ #2604 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 2:14 pm
… we just want our handout!
Hahaha
I’d like to ask them to get their f*cking hands out of my pocket.
Late Riser @ #2605 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 2:15 pm
Thought it could be, I’m using Chrome, so F knows what the problem is? 😆
If you have converted your super to a pension fund then income in the pension fund is not subject to tax.
Observer says:
Friday, February 8, 2019 at 6:10 pm
Quite frankly, to fully understand the Imputed Credits outcomes you would have to analyze the financial circumstances of each individual (or entity) who will lose eligibility.
Simply, at the end of the day (probably under advice from the likes of Wilson) you have to deliberately so arrange your financial circumstances to “qualify”.
And, unlike the social support system, you do not have to visit Centrelink and apply to receive the payment (and it is a payment to you).
Your part way there. You don’t have to visit center link; you have to arrange your affairs with care; you have to have capital and it is costing the budget 5.9 billion. There is no justification for wealthfare. The scam needs to stop.
52-48
Hoping for 56-44
But expect 52-48
Yes, you usually need to do a hard refresh to get them to work. I do need to look into that.
Barney in Go Dau @ #2591 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 6:01 pm
If you have a bit of time on your hands I recommend Paul Midler who spent years in China as a middle-man, ‘fixer’ for western company’s etc in their dealings with Chinese factory owners and other businesses etc.
Whats wrong with China – from the author Paul Midler
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q8GZoGiufU
Paul Midler – Poorly Made in China An Insider’s Account of the Tactics – Audiobook
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QD3BIwif3CU
What’s Wrong with China is the most cogent, insightful and penetrating examination I have read on the paradoxes and self-deceptions of Modern China, written by someone who has lived in the country and dealt with it day to day for decades. This book will be hated by the commissars, because it is a triumph of analysis and good sense.
—PAUL THEROUX
I sure wish I’d read this book before heading to China—or Chinatown, for that matter. China runs on an entirely different operating system—both commercial and personal. Midler’s clear, clever analysis and illuminating, often hilarious tales foster not only understanding but respect.
—MARY ROACH
What’s Wrong with China is the widely anticipated follow-up to Paul Midler’s Poorly Made in China, an exposé of China manufacturing practices. Applying a wider lens in this account, he reveals many of the deep problems affecting Chinese society as a whole. Once again, Midler delivers the goods by rejecting commonly held notions, breaking down old myths, and providing fresh explanations of lesser-understood cultural phenomena.
https://www.amazon.com/Whats-Wrong-China-Paul-Midler/dp/1119213711
dave,
Similar here in Vietnam.
They think it works the same as where they come from and often it does, that is until it all catches up with them as it seems to be the case for our Hong Kong stranded friend. 😆
Big A Adrian says:
Friday, February 8, 2019 at 5:56 pm
Might be slight issue with her standing for a party that would subject this same man to years on end of offshore detention and never allow him to reach Australia. I can think of one easy way to unravel her campaign – ask her to affirm her support for her party’s asylum seeker policy.
Bollocks. Labor is not responsible for keeping people on Manus and Naura for six years- there have been 2 elections since 2010 in case you missed them and Labor has supported transferring refugees to NZ when they made the offer, twice- Labor left has a publicly stated opposition to offshore detention — most recently at the National Conference in November last year. She won’t be on her own if that is her take on the matter.
Yep – Spot on.
The west have made excuses for China for too long.
Thats changing. Note the ‘naming’ of China re the ‘latest’ APH cyber attack.
https://www.alp.org.au/asylumseekers
All these years railing against Labor’s policy and Pegasus has only just got around to reading it.
#WeathonPB: thunder, lightning, wind and bucketing down after s hot, humid day in Sydney. Radar shows possible hail.
It’s obvious my post was in response to EB
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/23/friday-free-for-all/
Under Labor’s policy where will refugees and asylum seekers reside while undergoing off-shore processing?
Sydney – had Thai for lunch today, weather was very authentic.
#WeatheronPB
Pegasus says:
Friday, February 8, 2019 at 6:47 pm
It’s obvious my post was in response to EB
Labor left has a publicly stated opposition to offshore detention
https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/23/friday-free-for-all/
Since winning pre-selection, France has faced media scrutiny over her past pronouncements against offshore detention, which have since been removed from her social media accounts.
Fair enough: I stand corrected. The Brisbane Times article clearly stated she was a “critic of offshore detention”. The Courier says one thing, the Brisbane Times another..sheshkas.
EB
Since Ali France has been pre-selected as a Labor candidate, she has deleted all her social media posts railing against off-shore detention.
She is toeing the line re Labor’s policy supporting off-shore processing..
Her actions indicate that publicly she supports Labor’s current policy and therefore no longer speaks out against off-shore detention.
Her voice has been silenced.
Surely he couldn’t have said this with a straight face.
Ali Frances’ voice has now been silenced in the same way as Ged Kearney’s voice has been silenced.
There is a new venture in SA at a mine site which is being closed and converted to store energy as compressed air which can be switched on to turn turbines.
Pegasus @ #2623 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 2:56 pm
Bullshit!
If the issue comes up for debate within the Party, she would be able to voice her opinion freely!
TPOF and Davidh,
Thanks.
Just as a matter of interest, do the pension funds get the cash rebate at the moment?
My guess for Newspoll is 53/47 to ALP
Which would you prefer Pegasus, Ali France or another three years of Peter Dutton. I know who I would choose.
It certainly won’t be a Greenie in that electorate.
EB
PeeBee it depends on what type of pension fund and investment mix but most likely there would be some level of rebate. Also you don’t need to be wealthy to lose some level of rebate.
BiGD
I said “publicly” as in the public media, viz TV, radio, newspapers, social media.
Pegasus
The Greens candidate who talked about how to shoplift removed her posts….
Wayne @ #2630 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 6:09 pm
Already got you!
You would think those who want to see the end of offshore detention would be very supportive and happy to see someone with the same opinions join the Labor cause, where they can actually make changes.
Once again Green supporters would prefer to be impotent people shout and scream from the outside and get nothing done.
Pegasus @ #2632 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 3:12 pm
Why should she want to?
If your not prepared to toe the Party line on policy, don’t stand.
It’s a bit like the Greens really, they got a bit narky when Lee Rhiannon went off piste. 😆
Pegasus @ #2623 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:00 pm
Yep. Politics over policy. No values or ethics…. just like the Libs.
z
So. We are talking about Ali France and her well-known views re asylum seekers and refugees, and Labor’s stated policy.
A facile look over there doesn’t cut it in this context.
But by all means keep pushing that wheelbarrow, but you will have to play alone.
I reckon you should travel to Dickson and campaign against Ali France Pegasus. That would be the principled thing to do – run a ‘put Labor last’ campaign.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/06/world/pope-nuns-slavery/index.html
https://cnn.it/2TBsi4q
It would seem to be way past time for further state – organized religion businesses separation.
Force a split of charity from religion.
Tax the latter like any other organization.
Apply a polluter pays levy.
And of course, ready the DPP and proceeds of crime(s) legislation for clusters of abuse.
zoomster @ #2631 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:13 pm
because it was wrong ..?
Sky News today is obviously a vastly different beast from when I had Foxtel 5 or so years ago.
CAUTION: This post may require you to don a full tinfoil bodysuit.
In regards to the Bezos/National Enquirer imbroglio. How exactly did the Enquirer obtain Bezos private texts and photos? There are three possibilities:
1) Someone at The Enquirer hacked into Bezos account;
2) Someone hacked into his account and sold the information to the Enquirer.
There’s a 3rd possibility, and this is where you have to don your tinfoil bodysuit:
3) Russian state hackers hacked Bezos account at the request of someone who has (alleged) close ties to Russia. Someone who hates Bezos. Someone who, during the 2016 election campaign, called on Russia to “obtain” Hilary’s “lost emails”. Someone who is also close to Enquirer chief David Pecker.
Discuss.
AE
That’s all you have – a complete misrepresentation cum blatant mistruth about how I cast my vote in the HoR preferential system which I have stated many times.
Don’t expect anything else from the Labor ‘headkickers’.
—–
Dinner to eat so bye bye for now.
Andrew_Earlwood @ #2637 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:16 pm
Our world that has a polluted environment and divided/warring societies is that way because we continually vote in politicians with no values and no ethics.
This didnt get much media attention, well done James Merlino for calling it out, but I doubt we have heard the end of it.
—-
The Australian government in August last year kicked off a trial that saw surveillance cameras placed in classrooms to monitor if students were in attendance.
The now-completed trial took place in a few private schools in the state, and the funding was accounted for at a federal level. … the next phase of the trial was to roll out the program to state-run schools.
The initiative would involve the placement of cameras within classrooms that scan the faces of students and then compare the images against photos kept on file. Any instances of missing students would then be reported.
However, Victorian Education Minister James Merlino has moved to block the initiative from being rolled out, calling it “Big Brother-like”.
https://www.zdnet.com/article/victorian-government-pushes-back-on-in-classroom-surveillance/
Dan Gulberry
One thing is certain. Jeff Bezos has a fair idea and has responded emphatically
8,971 votes 9.87 % first preferences for the Kermit’s in Dick-son last time- that candidate will have to do it on their own.
Gonski 2.0 Lee Rhiannon ring a bell ? The NSW Greens lost thousands of members last year over that barney that is still taking scalps.
Don’t preach about moral purity when the Greens leader Christine Milne stood against an ETS . Remember that ?
Dis-own your values, your credibility, your beliefs, your soul… and do as we dictate.