Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. Full List of Newspoll Guesses

    PB mean: ALP 54.3 to 45.7 LNP
    PB median: ALP 53.0 to 47.0 LNP
    No. Of PB Respondents: 52

    ALP / LNP
    53 / 47 Al Pal
    52 / 48 Bennelong Lurker
    56 / 44 bilko
    53 / 47 BK
    53.5 / 46.5 booleanbach
    54 / 46 bug1
    52 / 48 Confessions
    99 / 1 Dan Gulberry
    55 / 45 Dog’s Breakfast
    51 / 49 Douglas and Milko
    53 / 47 electionblogger2019.simplesite.com
    53 / 47 Fozzie Logic
    53 / 47 Frednk *permanent
    54 / 46 Fulvio Sammut
    57 / 43 Gecko
    55 / 45 Goll
    56 / 44 grimace
    55 / 45 guytaur
    53 / 47 Harry “Snapper” Organs
    52 / 48 Holden Hillbilly
    53 / 47 imacca
    52 / 48 It’s Time
    56 / 44 KayJay
    54 / 46 klasib
    53 / 47 Late Riser
    53 / 47 Margaret Kitchener
    54 / 46 Matt31
    52 / 48 Mavis Smith
    54 / 46 Mr Ed
    54 / 46 Onebobsworth
    54 / 46 Outside Left
    54 / 46 pica
    54 / 46 Player One
    54 / 46 poroti
    51 / 49 Prof. Higgins
    53 / 47 Puffytmd
    53 / 47 Quasar
    53 / 47 rhwombat
    51 / 49 Rossa
    53 / 47 SilentMajority
    57 / 43 Sprocket_
    53 / 47 Socrates
    54 / 46 Sohar
    53 / 47 steve davis
    52 / 48 Steve777
    53 / 47 sustainable future
    54 / 46 The real Dave
    53 / 47 Tricot
    53 / 47 Upnorth
    53 / 47 Wayne
    53 / 47 Yabba
    52 / 48 Zoidlord

  2. Quite frankly, to fully understand the Imputed Credits outcomes you would have to analyze the financial circumstances of each individual (or entity) who will lose eligibility.

    Simply, at the end of the day (probably under advice from the likes of Wilson) you have to deliberately so arrange your financial circumstances to “qualify”.

    And, unlike the social support system, you do not have to visit Centrelink and apply to receive the payment (and it is a payment to you).

  3. Big A A

    Malcolm Farr on AF:

    19 March 2018: https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/brisbanes-new-labor-candidate-to-hit-peter-dutton-where-it-hurts/news-story/ceb43e6949c3db6c8405d9f97a91da17

    THE Queensland ALP has preselected a candidate for Peter Dutton’s seat of Dickson who has a colourful record of opposing offshore detention.

    She has not only been a prominent critic of Mr Dutton’s policies, Ali France has also loudly condemned those of Labor leader Bill Shorten.

    But Brisbane’s Courier-Mail today revealed that once chosen as the Dickson candidate, Ms France abruptly dedicated herself to the party line she had long disputed.

    And today her critical posts on that issue were removed from social media sites.

    Mr Dutton now has a prime political opportunity to question his Labor rival’s commitment to offshore detention and party policy. She had previously called supporters of the policy “hypocrites” and called for detainees on Manus and Nauru to be settled on the Australian mainland.

  4. poroti:

    Apparently not all of them were taken with the attending Liberal MPs.

    Michael KoziolVerified account@michaelkoziol
    9h9 hours ago
    Tim Wilson and Matt Thistlethwaite start the franking credits inquiry in Chatswood with a partisan scrap. A bloke in the audience stands up and yells “we’re not interested in this political bickering” #auspol

    :large

  5. Confessions @ #2604 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 2:14 pm

    poroti:

    Apparently not all of them were taken with the attending Liberal MPs.

    Michael KoziolVerified account@michaelkoziol
    9h9 hours ago
    Tim Wilson and Matt Thistlethwaite start the franking credits inquiry in Chatswood with a partisan scrap. A bloke in the audience stands up and yells “we’re not interested in this political bickering” #auspol

    … we just want our handout!

  6. I would love to stand up at one of these rallies against the retiree tax and ask everyone to shake their jewelry in anger!

    Hahaha

    I’d like to ask them to get their f*cking hands out of my pocket.

  7. Late Riser @ #2605 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 2:15 pm

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2600 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 5:07 pm

    William,

    Just a quick note.

    The State tabs on BludgerTrack don’t seem to be working.

    I’m not sure if this is my end or yours, but it’s been like that for a while.

    Cheers.

    Might be at your end Barney. They’re working for me using Opera or Chrome on a Windows 10 PC.

    Thought it could be, I’m using Chrome, so F knows what the problem is? 😆


  8. Observer says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 6:10 pm

    Quite frankly, to fully understand the Imputed Credits outcomes you would have to analyze the financial circumstances of each individual (or entity) who will lose eligibility.

    Simply, at the end of the day (probably under advice from the likes of Wilson) you have to deliberately so arrange your financial circumstances to “qualify”.

    And, unlike the social support system, you do not have to visit Centrelink and apply to receive the payment (and it is a payment to you).

    Your part way there. You don’t have to visit center link; you have to arrange your affairs with care; you have to have capital and it is costing the budget 5.9 billion. There is no justification for wealthfare. The scam needs to stop.

  9. The State tabs on BludgerTrack don’t seem to be working.

    I’m not sure if this is my end or yours, but it’s been like that for a while.

    Yes, you usually need to do a hard refresh to get them to work. I do need to look into that.

  10. Barney in Go Dau @ #2591 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 6:01 pm

    Pegasus @ #2586 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 1:56 pm

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/chinese-billionaire-huang-xiangmo-wants-political-donations-back/10794726

    A Chinese billionaire who has been prevented from returning to Australia has asked political parties to return the millions of dollars in donations he’s made.

    But donations are made without ulterior motives and no strings attached, so why does he want his money back, did he think otherwise? 😆

    If you have a bit of time on your hands I recommend Paul Midler who spent years in China as a middle-man, ‘fixer’ for western company’s etc in their dealings with Chinese factory owners and other businesses etc.

    Whats wrong with China – from the author Paul Midler

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Q8GZoGiufU

    Paul Midler – Poorly Made in China An Insider’s Account of the Tactics – Audiobook

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QD3BIwif3CU

    What’s Wrong with China is the most cogent, insightful and penetrating examination I have read on the paradoxes and self-deceptions of Modern China, written by someone who has lived in the country and dealt with it day to day for decades. This book will be hated by the commissars, because it is a triumph of analysis and good sense.
    —PAUL THEROUX

    I sure wish I’d read this book before heading to China—or Chinatown, for that matter. China runs on an entirely different operating system—both commercial and personal. Midler’s clear, clever analysis and illuminating, often hilarious tales foster not only understanding but respect.
    —MARY ROACH

    What’s Wrong with China is the widely anticipated follow-up to Paul Midler’s Poorly Made in China, an exposé of China manufacturing practices. Applying a wider lens in this account, he reveals many of the deep problems affecting Chinese society as a whole. Once again, Midler delivers the goods by rejecting commonly held notions, breaking down old myths, and providing fresh explanations of lesser-understood cultural phenomena.

    https://www.amazon.com/Whats-Wrong-China-Paul-Midler/dp/1119213711

  11. dave,

    Similar here in Vietnam.

    They think it works the same as where they come from and often it does, that is until it all catches up with them as it seems to be the case for our Hong Kong stranded friend. 😆

  12. Big A Adrian says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 5:56 pm

    Might be slight issue with her standing for a party that would subject this same man to years on end of offshore detention and never allow him to reach Australia. I can think of one easy way to unravel her campaign – ask her to affirm her support for her party’s asylum seeker policy.

    Bollocks. Labor is not responsible for keeping people on Manus and Naura for six years- there have been 2 elections since 2010 in case you missed them and Labor has supported transferring refugees to NZ when they made the offer, twice- Labor left has a publicly stated opposition to offshore detention — most recently at the National Conference in November last year. She won’t be on her own if that is her take on the matter.

  13. They think it works the same as where they come from and often it does, that is until it all catches up with them as it seems to be the case for our Hong Kong stranded friend.

    Yep – Spot on.

    The west have made excuses for China for too long.

    Thats changing. Note the ‘naming’ of China re the ‘latest’ APH cyber attack.

  14. https://www.alp.org.au/asylumseekers

    Labor believes in strong borders, offshore processing, regional resettlement, and turnbacks when safe to do so because we know it saves lives at sea. This is the policy Labor took to the last Federal Election and remains our policy.

    Labor’s resolve on this issue is absolute – the way to Australia through irregular means by boat is closed, and it will remain so under Labor.
    :::
    Labor will not do anything to provide the people smugglers with a market to exploit vulnerable people. As such, bringing people from offshore regional processing centres to Australia is not an option.

  15. It’s obvious my post was in response to EB

    Labor left has a publicly stated opposition to offshore detention

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/23/friday-free-for-all/

    Since winning preselection, France has faced media scrutiny over her past pronouncements against offshore detention, which have since been removed from her social media accounts.

    Under Labor’s policy where will refugees and asylum seekers reside while undergoing off-shore processing?

  16. Pegasus says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 6:47 pm
    It’s obvious my post was in response to EB

    Labor left has a publicly stated opposition to offshore detention

    https://www.pollbludger.net/2018/03/23/friday-free-for-all/

    Since winning pre-selection, France has faced media scrutiny over her past pronouncements against offshore detention, which have since been removed from her social media accounts.

    Fair enough: I stand corrected. The Brisbane Times article clearly stated she was a “critic of offshore detention”. The Courier says one thing, the Brisbane Times another..sheshkas.

    EB

  17. Since Ali France has been pre-selected as a Labor candidate, she has deleted all her social media posts railing against off-shore detention.

    She is toeing the line re Labor’s policy supporting off-shore processing..

    Her actions indicate that publicly she supports Labor’s current policy and therefore no longer speaks out against off-shore detention.

    Her voice has been silenced.

  18. Surely he couldn’t have said this with a straight face.

    Eryk BagshawVerified account@ErykBagshaw
    28m28 minutes ago
    Tim Wilson says on Sky News the franking inquiry allegations are “a smear campaign” designed to silence him and retirees. “Bring it on.” Credlin: “Are there any more events that people can go to? How can they get involved?”#auspol

  19. There is a new venture in SA at a mine site which is being closed and converted to store energy as compressed air which can be switched on to turn turbines.

  20. Pegasus @ #2623 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 2:56 pm

    Since Ali France has been pre-selected as a Labor candidate, she has deleted all her social media posts railing against off-shore detention.

    She is toeing the line re Labor’s policy supporting off-shore processing..

    Her actions indicate that publicly she supports Labor’s current policy and therefore no longer speaks out against off-shore detention.

    Her voice has been silenced.

    Bullshit!
    If the issue comes up for debate within the Party, she would be able to voice her opinion freely!

  21. PeeBee it depends on what type of pension fund and investment mix but most likely there would be some level of rebate. Also you don’t need to be wealthy to lose some level of rebate.

  22. You would think those who want to see the end of offshore detention would be very supportive and happy to see someone with the same opinions join the Labor cause, where they can actually make changes.
    Once again Green supporters would prefer to be impotent people shout and scream from the outside and get nothing done.

  23. z

    So. We are talking about Ali France and her well-known views re asylum seekers and refugees, and Labor’s stated policy.

    A facile look over there doesn’t cut it in this context.

    But by all means keep pushing that wheelbarrow, but you will have to play alone.

  24. I reckon you should travel to Dickson and campaign against Ali France Pegasus. That would be the principled thing to do – run a ‘put Labor last’ campaign.

  25. Sky News today is obviously a vastly different beast from when I had Foxtel 5 or so years ago.

    Sky News AustraliaVerified account@SkyNewsAust
    42m42 minutes ago
    Dr Kevin Donnelly on school curriculums: We can’t teach Romeo and Juliet because it privileges heteronormativity.

    It is identity politics on steroids, it is destroying what is most valuable to literature.

    MORE: https://bit.ly/2HX0TbX #Credlin

  26. CAUTION: This post may require you to don a full tinfoil bodysuit.

    In regards to the Bezos/National Enquirer imbroglio. How exactly did the Enquirer obtain Bezos private texts and photos? There are three possibilities:

    1) Someone at The Enquirer hacked into Bezos account;
    2) Someone hacked into his account and sold the information to the Enquirer.

    There’s a 3rd possibility, and this is where you have to don your tinfoil bodysuit:
    3) Russian state hackers hacked Bezos account at the request of someone who has (alleged) close ties to Russia. Someone who hates Bezos. Someone who, during the 2016 election campaign, called on Russia to “obtain” Hilary’s “lost emails”. Someone who is also close to Enquirer chief David Pecker.

    Discuss.

  27. AE

    That’s all you have – a complete misrepresentation cum blatant mistruth about how I cast my vote in the HoR preferential system which I have stated many times.

    Don’t expect anything else from the Labor ‘headkickers’.

    —–

    Dinner to eat so bye bye for now.

  28. Andrew_Earlwood @ #2637 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:16 pm

    I reckon you should travel to Dickson and campaign against Ali France Pegasus. That would be the principled thing to do – run a ‘put Labor last’ campaign.

    Our world that has a polluted environment and divided/warring societies is that way because we continually vote in politicians with no values and no ethics.

  29. This didnt get much media attention, well done James Merlino for calling it out, but I doubt we have heard the end of it.
    —-
    The Australian government in August last year kicked off a trial that saw surveillance cameras placed in classrooms to monitor if students were in attendance.

    The now-completed trial took place in a few private schools in the state, and the funding was accounted for at a federal level. … the next phase of the trial was to roll out the program to state-run schools.
    The initiative would involve the placement of cameras within classrooms that scan the faces of students and then compare the images against photos kept on file. Any instances of missing students would then be reported.

    However, Victorian Education Minister James Merlino has moved to block the initiative from being rolled out, calling it “Big Brother-like”.

    https://www.zdnet.com/article/victorian-government-pushes-back-on-in-classroom-surveillance/

  30. 8,971 votes 9.87 % first preferences for the Kermit’s in Dick-son last time- that candidate will have to do it on their own.

    Gonski 2.0 Lee Rhiannon ring a bell ? The NSW Greens lost thousands of members last year over that barney that is still taking scalps.

    Don’t preach about moral purity when the Greens leader Christine Milne stood against an ETS . Remember that ?

  31. If your not prepared to toe the Party line on policy, don’t stand.

    Dis-own your values, your credibility, your beliefs, your soul… and do as we dictate.

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