Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. a r, “Must be nice to have $100k/year in passive income, tax liability or no.”

    Perhaps that is what Labor should be saying to these wealthy people:

    “Don’t worry about the changes to Franking Credits, it won’t affect you.”

  2. MOVEMENTS IN DICK-SON
    Labor candidate Ali France is going after Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton, leader of the Liberal Party’s conservative faction, holds the seat on a razor-thin margin of 2 per cent. Peter Dutton has represented the seat since 2001.
    Dutton was so worried about holding the seat that he tried (and failed) to jump ship to a safer one on the Gold Coast.
    At last year’s byelection in the neighbouring seat of Longman, the LNP’s primary vote plunged to a catastrophic low of 30 per cent.
    Labor is mounting a huge campaign and calls on at least 200 of its 1000 volunteers each week for doorknocking, phone calls and mailouts. Left-wing group GetUp! is also throwing resources at the contest
    The Ali France campaign plans to target health. She lost her leg in a horrific accident in 2011.A critic of offshore detention, her link to refugees is deeply personal. Munjed Al Muderis, a refugee who fled Iraq in 1999 after refusing orders to mutilate deserters of Saddam Hussein’s army, performed a ground-breaking procedure to insert a titanium rod into her bone to connect a prosthetic. He came to Australia by boat.
    Source: Bevan Shields. Meet Ali France, the woman out to slay Peter Dutton at the election. Brisbane Times FEBRUARY 8, 2019.

    A woman whose future was saved by a man who came to Australia by boat as a refugee is contesting Dutton’s seat. Poetic justice or what ? Go get him Ali.

  4. Just caught up reading about these battlers. FMD. So what is it $100,000 pa tax free ? Lets say a 5% return from their other 85% that means they have $1,700,000 invested. Plus of course the shares. and of course the family ‘hovel’ .

    Yes my heart bleeds for these people.

    I still cannot believe they don’t have an ounce of shame and are complaining bitterly about having thousands of free govt cash cut from them when they have no need for such assistance.

  5. PeeBee

    The $85,000 was from their other investments. So tax status ? The $85,000 sounded like it was after tax (if any) so goodness knows how much they actually have in total.

  6. PeeBee says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 5:14 pm
    Poroti, “Just caught up reading about these battlers. FMD. So what is it $100,000 pa tax free ? Lets say a 5% return from their other 85% that means they have $1,700,000 invested. Plus of course the shares. and of course the family ‘hovel’ .”

    If their income is ‘tax free’, the capital must be in super. The fund would have had a tax liability that the franking credits can continue to offset any tax liability the fund has.

    _________________________________-

    If the shares are in a pension phase account, the dividends attract no tax whatsoever. Any dividends from shares in an accumulation phase account only attract a 15% tax, so if all the dividends are fully franked the other 15% of franking credits can be claimed by the SMSF account.

  7. ‘Delicious irony’: How miner’s challenge became a climate change win:

    https://www.theage.com.au/environment/climate-change/delicious-irony-how-miner-s-challenge-became-a-climate-change-win-20190208-p50wl0.html

    When Planning Minister Anthony Roberts intervened a year ago to give a coal miner the unusual right to challenge its project’s refusal in court, neither would have countenanced Friday’s outcome.

    Instead of settling the future of Gloucester Resources’ controversial Rocky Hill coal mine near Gloucester, the NSW Land and Environment Court just cast a cloud over coal mining in general.
    :::
    Future generations will wonder why it took so long for any court in the land to hear such evidence when considering a coal mine project.
    :::
    Moreover, decisions like Justice Preston’s also reflect the fact that “courts unlike some of our political representatives will accept sound scientific evidence on the causes of climate change,” Wilder adds. “It will make it harder for courts to ignore it.”

  9. Tim Wilson is going to be the cause of many many questions in the House next week. Does anyone know whether he can be asked them directly through the speaker?

    I see that he wrote a book called “Rediscovering Humility”. I think he is about to experience that big time!

  10. Confessions, I can’t get over the stupidity of these people. They most likely won’t be affected by the policy.

    But of course, the LNP love it. The more complaining the better, even if it is baseless.

  11. Mavis “Go Ms. France:…”

    Ms France looks like an excellent candidate. Just to compare her to the vicious, nasty incumbent – well, there is no comparison.

    OK, if I were in Dixon I’d be voting for the Labor candidate if he/she were a yellow dog, a length of 4 by 2 or Eddie Obeid. However, good candidates matter, especially in garnering swinging votes and once elected as members and future ministers.

  12. I see that he wrote a book called “Rediscovering Humility”. I think he is about to experience that big time!

    Oh no, really?! That is so, so funny.

  18. Phelps’ bill

    https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/one-in-three-nauru-refugees-to-seek-medical-help-in-australia-under-phelps-bill-expert-says-20190208-p50wg9.html

    Independent crossbencher Cathy McGowan is the Coalition’s sliver of hope: she says she will make up her mind on the bill, which needs her vote, when Parliament resumes.

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten also left the door open for switching his position on the bill by agreeing to “listen to the facts” when he meets with officials from the Department of Home Affairs next week for a security briefing on the bill.

    “I do think if there’s middle ground, we should try and find it,” he said on Friday.

  19. From the reader reaction to the Tim Wilson nonsense in the SMH, I’m heartened enough to suggest 54 Lab, 46 Coalition.

  21. Eryk BagshawVerified account@ErykBagshaw
    16m16 minutes ago
    Geoff Wilson has emailed investors at 5pm on a Friday confirming he has partly-funded the government’s Stop the Retiree tax website. He said has “nothing to lose” from Labor’s policy and can convert to a trust structure if needed. #auspol

    What does this mean?

  22. DaretoTread @ #2550 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 5:23 pm

    HaveAchat @ #2349 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 4:13 pm

    DaretoTread @ #2273 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:54 am

    HaveAchat @ #2068 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:42 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2250 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:55 am

    C@tmomma @ #2246 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 3:45 am

    I know this is going to sound icky, but, can I just say from personal experience that if a big bear of a man comes in close and wraps their arms around you for a long, lingering hug, that they come into very close contact with your breasts for an extended period. They can feel them too.

    I say this because my youngest son, who is very warm and loving, came to give me a hug once when he saw that I was upset about something. He wanted it to be a big hug but about 10 seconds in we both just jumped back and went, ‘Eww!’ We had both realised that it was too close for comfort.

    So, for Scott Buchholz to do that to a young woman that he didn’t even know would obviously be cause for concern to that person.

    Surely it’s also being aware of the signs from the other person.

    If they’re not hugging you anymore then they probably don’t want you hugging them anymore.

    Surely before you hug a person of the another gender it is polite to ask, particularly if you are a stranger and not one of that person’s friends, colleagues or family.

    Please ALPers, stop fanning this one. I really think it possible that the LNP are carving a safer spot for Dutton – or at least it is possible. I may well be wrong, but I would rather not take the risk.

    Bollocks, this professional airwoman signed on to do her duty today, I doubt that she expected some fat stranger would come along and touch her body without her permission and for his own personal enjoyment. Would you be saying that it should be ignored if he had slipped his hand down her knickers, or grabbed her arse and gave it a squeeze.
    A woman or any person has a right to be able to go about their lives without some obese politician thinking that he has the right to grab hold of her all in the name of a ‘good time’ and because it was her birthday.
    Again bollocks to your thinking that this is some sort of sneaky trick to get dutton into another seat, this low life grasped a woman in his arms for his own personal enjoyment if that means that he gets his arse kicked to the door so be it.
    If and when this molesting arsehole is kicked out and if dutton gets his shiny bum in the door then fight dutton as the scum he is.
    Don’t let the idea that there may be someone worse out there excuse some arsehole that thinks he has the right to just grab any woman he wants and press his body against her and stop him being rightfully condemned for his actions.

    Well if Dutton is LOTO while occupying the seat of Wright and then becomes PM do not say i did not warn you.

    Well, if you think that allowing a man to molest anyone he wants to is okay then I seriously doubt that your warnings are worth the electrons that you wasted on them.

  23. A baby boomers take on franking credits

    Labor has historically attempted to use the levers of the economy at their disposal to share the wealth pie more equally and fairly, through wage increases for example. The Conservatives prefer to let the market decide, let us compete with each other for wealth and reward the hard work of the aspirational with lower taxes and still more opportunity and to get the government out of the way as much as possible.

    For Labor this policy is about redistributing more of the national wealth pie; If the government no longer has to pay cash refunds here the ‘saved’ billions can be distributed to those who can not be ‘aspirational’, people with severe disabilities who can not participate in the labour market or start a small business for example.

    Alternatively the ‘saved’ billions can be put into things that improve the well being of the whole community, better infrastructure, schools, education or roads for example. Labor is not perfect, it will stuff up spectacularly at times, but at least in principle if not in practice, the intent to share the wealth pie is a more laudable goal than self obsessed ‘aspiration’ and a government happy to stand aside and watch us fight over it.

  24. TPOF, I am under the impression all income in a fund is taxed regardless of it is an accumulation account or a pension account. Correct me if I am wrong, but I based this on:

    “How investment earnings are taxed. Income which is earned in the fund (investment earnings) is taxed at a maximum rate of 15%. Capital gains on assets held for longer than 12 months within the fund will be taxed at 10%. The amount of tax your fund pays can be reduced by tax deductions or tax credits.”

    You are correct that the earning attract a tax of 15% which can use some of the franking credits. The rest of credits can also be used for capital gains (which don’t come with a franking credit).

    Don’t forget not all dividends come with franking credits of 30%. Some times it is less and down to zero.

  25. “Opposition Leader Bill Shorten also left the door open for switching his position on the bill by agreeing to “listen to the facts” when he meets with officials from the Department of Home Affairs next week for a security briefing on the bill.”

    Right, so Peter Dutton lied about Bill Shorten ignoring advice from the Security Services, or at the very least shot his mouth off without bothering to check the facts. Is he going to apologise? Will the media demand that he do so? Do fish ride bicycles? (answer to all three is the same).

  26. But I thought Shorten had already received a confidential Departmental briefing. Dutton said so.

    Why does he need another?

  27. Grey Power Climate Protectors: https://chuffed.org/project/using-greypower-to-stopadani

    Inspired by the School Strike 4 Climate, we will take bold and creative nonviolent action to help change the politics of climate change in Australia. With your help we will:

    Undertake strategic actions and engage voters for 50 days straight in two newly marginal electorates

    Provide nonviolent action education training to older people

    Provide BOLD political action opportunities, strategically focussed on the Federal and Queensland Governments

    Train and support new ‘leaders’ to coordinate bold political actions

    Develop pathways and training for ‘Grey Nomads’ to become ‘Green Nomads’ on a climate justice convoy

    Support the March 15 school strike with #GreyPower solidarity, including the recruitment of parents and grandparents to attend with their kids/grandkids

    Build the capacity of #StopAdani groups and work with them to use Grey Power campaign messaging/tactics
    ——-

    Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/GreyPowerEarth/

    Grey Power Climate Protectors, among others, will be targeting the seats of Melbourne and Brisbane for 50 days leading up to the federal elections. In NSW, anti-coal activists are targeting a number of marginal seats in the lead-up to the March state election.

  28. If Labor win the election and end the franking credits rort – I hope all of the AstroTurf protesters hound Tim Wilson at the subsequent election to promise to reintroduce it.

    They may be in for a very rude surprise from Mr “Rediscovering Humility”!

  29. Just reading some reports from the franking inquiry. Sounds like a Trump rally!

    Michael KoziolVerified account@michaelkoziol
    8h8 hours ago

    Loud boos from the crowd when a woman says the money saved by abolishing refundable franking credits could go to public schools #auspol

    Michael KoziolVerified account@michaelkoziol
    7h7 hours ago

    A man responds to the argument that no other country has refundable franking credits: “The flogging of homosexuals doesn’t happen in Australia but it happens in other countries. Does that mean it should happen in Australia?” #auspol

    Michael KoziolVerified account@michaelkoziol
    3h3 hours ago

    “This is a sham”: Chaotic scenes as man ejected from Tim Wilson’s franking credits inquiry, while Craig Kelly defends party-political fundraising #auspol

    Eryk BagshawVerified account@ErykBagshaw
    7h7 hours ago

    One retiree at the franking credit inquiry said he gives “tens of thousands of dollars” to the Cancer Council and other charities. He warned that would stop under Labor’s policy. #auspol

  30. “The WA Government has backed down on its controversial planned changes to the rock lobster industry after a heated debate, saying fishers have agreed to significantly increase the local lobster supply.”

    The supply of Lobsters is not something you can “order”. Sure you can fish more for a while, but eventually the supply dries up as over fishing depletes the stock and permanently destroy the resource (lookup what happen to the Grand Banks cod fishery).

    Economists don’t understand the natural world works to different rules to them.

  32. Rocket Rocket @ #2558 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 1:29 pm

    Tim Wilson is going to be the cause of many many questions in the House next week. Does anyone know whether he can be asked them directly through the speaker?

    I see that he wrote a book called “Rediscovering Humility”. I think he is about to experience that big time!

    As a Committee Chair he can be asked questions about the Committee during question time.
    😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆 😆

  35. Confessions

    Loud boos from the crowd when a woman says the money saved by abolishing refundable franking credits could go to public schools #auspol

    Do you think they would have cheered if she said “Private schools” ?

  36. “A woman whose future was saved by a man who came to Australia by boat as a refugee is contesting Dutton’s seat. Poetic justice or what ? Go get him Ali.”

    Might be slight issue with her standing for a party that would subject this same man to years on end of offshore detention and never allow him to reach Australia.

    I can think of one easy way to unravel her campaign – ask her to affirm her support for her party’s asylum seeker policy.

  39. I hope that all those who have revealed their identities receive a barrage of begging letters, just like lotto winners do.

  40. Re electionblogger2019.simplesite.com @5:38PM:

    “Labor has historically attempted to use the levers of the economy at their disposal to share the wealth pie more equally and fairly, through wage increases for example. The Conservatives prefer to let the market decide, let us compete with each other for wealth and reward the hard work of the aspirational with lower taxes and still more opportunity and to get the government out of the way as much as possible.”

    There are about 25 million Australians in about 10 million households.

    It has been pointed out that the refund of excess franking credits costs about $6 billion per annum. That’s about $600 per household. Taking inflation into account, it is very close to the cost of the carbon price. But instead of doing something useful, it is merely providing an unnecessary and unjustified handout to support the lifestyles of people who are well off.

    So maybe somebody should put the question to the punters – are you happy to spend $600 per annum ($12 per week) supporting wealthy whinging retirees? Didn’t think so. Framing is important. Why hasn’t someone done this?

    Even if I were a “Liberal”, I would want to abolish this wealthfare handout and cut everyone’s taxes by about $400 per annum (assumes about 15 million taxpayers).

  41. Pegasus @ #2586 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 1:56 pm

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-08/chinese-billionaire-huang-xiangmo-wants-political-donations-back/10794726

    A Chinese billionaire who has been prevented from returning to Australia has asked political parties to return the millions of dollars in donations he’s made.

    But donations are made without ulterior motives and no strings attached, so why does he want his money back, did he think otherwise? 😆

  43. poroti:

    Probably. Although perhaps the booing was because they are no longer at school and therefore don’t care if public schools receive additional funding.

  44. Chinese billionaire and major political donor Huang Xiangmo

    https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/feb/08/give-back-my-money-banned-billionaire-huang-xiangmo-hits-out-at-political-parties

    Huang has donated $2.7m to major parties in Australia. He came to notoriety through his dealings with the former Labor senator Sam Dastyari, who Huang gave $5,000 to cover “legal bills”.

    Huang on Friday urged political parties to return his money if they thought any donations were inappropriate. He said he had only ever donated money at the request of political parties.

  45. If there is still a gram of your body not convinced what a bunch of selfish greedy o;d bastatds they are this will fix that.

    @TheKouk speaking at the #FrankingCredits Inquiry. Was booed when he said money needs to be used for other things in the community (such as health and schools), rather than investing in dinosaur companies. Not such a popular opinion in this Liberal Party stronghold. #AUSPOL

    — Eddy Jokovich (@EddyJokovich) February 8, 2019

  46. I would love to stand up at one of these rallies against the retiree tax and ask everyone to shake their jewelry in anger!

  50. William,

    Just a quick note.

    The State tabs on BludgerTrack don’t seem to be working.

    I’m not sure if this is my end or yours, but it’s been like that for a while.

    Cheers.

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