Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

More evidence of a narrowing trend federally from Essential Research, albeit based on small shifts in the primary vote.

The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.

UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:

• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.

• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.

• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.

UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,781 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

  1. This passes for political commentary in The West Australian these days (from Mark Riley) describing a meeting between Morrison and a flood victim….. It’s titled “It’s ScoMo the kind heart”

    “But she went the other, reaching out for Morrison and dragging him willingly into a deep, empathetic embrace. It lasted only a few seconds , but it was an honest display of true compassion from the country’s leader…………. perhaps it is the product of Morrison’s family upbringing, his deep
    Christian beliefs, or maybe it’s simply just him, but his natural reaction on Tuesday struck the perfect tone.”

  2. This ‘retiree tax’ thing reminds me of the astroturfing that surrounded the carbon tax backlash.

    Jen, you are not wrong. Same people running it: nutter truckers out of Wodonga, among others.

  3. where were the protesters when the coalition cut the assets test threshold and chopped the pensions of hundreds of thousands?

  4. Holden Hillbilly says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 3:44 pm
    where were the protesters when the coalition cut the assets test threshold and chopped the pensions of hundreds of thousands?

    _______________________________

    These really were the people who were doing just a bit better than full pensioners. None of them were really wealthy getting $80,000 plus in tax free income BEFORE claiming franking credits.

    That is what is so scummy about the current protests. It’s the really rich – the ones who really are not only self-funded but tax exempt – who are kicking up the biggest fuss. And for these people, the difference is whether they get the stateroom or two decks lower on their Rhine river cruise, not whether they can visit the grandkids another time during the year.

  5. Labor could run their own campaign on tories planning to steal our super by “Nationalising” Super and handing it over to the Future Fund.

    All very early days yet – lots of dirty tricks to come.

  6. P1: It is suss. I just posted why.

    Thanks for your post. Murph just pulled those statistics from the media release.

    I do wonder why they pay these ‘journalists’ anything. They are just cut-and-pasters.

  7. “BILL SHORTEN… HANDS OFF MY SAVINGS“?????

    WHAT savings?

    By the way… notice that the handwriting on the signs seems to be just about all the same?

  8. My in-laws are joining in on this protest! Mother -in-law states she wants Shorten to not have a go at her and she should not miss out (but will still vote Labor), my father-in-law is a Liberal voter who once has told me he does not believe in Medicare as people should look after themselves, voted no in the marriage equality vote even though his nephew wants to marry his partner.

    I try not to talk politics to keep the peace but feel like asking why they want their hand out and don’t agree with funding anything else.
    Reality is a lot of people can only see their existence and do not give a s..t about others

  9. Reality is a lot of people can only see their existence and do not give a s..t about others
    __________________________

    Yep. But it’s marvellous how well they dress it up in high moral sounding phrases!

  10. I try not to talk politics to keep the peace but feel like asking why they want their hand out and don’t agree with funding anything else.

    As I’ve often noted, it is invariably those who scream the loudest about cutting back taxpayer funded support for those genuinely in need who are the first to stick their hands out for taxpayer funded support even though they don’t need it.

  11. TPOF

    JK Galbraith nailed it decades ago.

    The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy; that is, the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.

  12. reaching out for Morrison and dragging him willingly into a deep, empathetic embrace.

    But did their hips touch? That’s when a hug can be dangerous. 😉

  13. As I’ve often noted, it is invariably those who scream the loudest about cutting back taxpayer funded support for those genuinely in need who are the first to stick their hands out for taxpayer funded support even though they don’t need it.

    Very much so ‘Fess.

    Howard gave it all a huge push along after thatcher and reagan.

  14. I’ve sent the video of Scummo’s ‘hug’ to the video bunker. There will be a ball tracking replay to determine the trajectory of his hips and we believe that the infra-red camera will show any contact. We don’t think that Snicko will reveal anything of use.

  15. Dog’s Breakfast @ #2523 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 12:25 pm

    I’ve sent the video of Scummo’s ‘hug’ to the video bunker. There will be a ball tracking replay to determine the trajectory of his hips and we believe that the infra-red camera will show any contact. We don’t think that Snicko will reveal anything of use.

    There could have been kissing.

    Snicko should pick that up.

  16. Reading the comments on this article suggests that there are a lot more people aware that the franking credits refunds to non-taxpayers is a scam.

    The Coalition can scream ‘retirement tax ‘ all it likes, but the more we see of these entitled people with their 50 or 100 thousand dollar tax free income screaming blue murder because they don’t get another 15 or 20 thousand, the easier it will be for Labor to engage the vast majority of people below retirement age who actually pay their taxes to fund these rorts.

  17. Pee Bee

    The view if that emission target report today that the Paris target will be reached was based on the exponential growth of renewable sources.

    Between now and 2025 a huge growth in renewables will allow Paris to be exceeded, says the report.

    Andy Murray’s reply to you quantifies large renewable increases in the short term, let alone by 2025.

  18. [‘No wonder the Dick Tater is shit scared. He’s about to be mashed.’]

    Let’s hope so, rhwombat. But he has bucket loads of moola – not bad for an ex-walloper.

  19. Great to see the wonderful comments today on the PBers’ site. I too believe that the Hunter Valley decision is a game breaker. Thank Dog that small local groups are standing up for their locality, and by extension, showing the way for many more groups to do so. I think that these local actions directly reflect responses to David Suzuki’s maxim -“think globally,act locally.”
    While we can debate just how much our little homestyle and lifestyle changes can make, and they vary in intensity and amount, each seemingly little, innoculous act done by many,many people is also a reflection on the power of the Suzuki maxim.
    Speaking of acting locally, many of these local regional activist groups are supported by their State Environmental Defenders Offices. They provide pro-bono legal advice in Court actions.
    Donating to environmental groups? Start with your State EDO.

  20. I do hope my local member is politically punished for his extended, unsolicited hug of a RAAF officer. The man’s a twerp, rarely seen in my neck of the woods – the Gold Coast hinterland.

  21. poroti @ #2612 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 12:24 pm

    Big A Adrian

    Freedom Boy’s fave author likely to be Ayn Rand. She died living off welfare so all good.

    Freedom Boy is as much of a Randroid as the pre-mellowing Malcolm Fraser. Atlas didn’t shrug, he had a full blown tantrum when his grubby little scam was blown. Unfortunately we know exactly where John Galt Jon Gaul is – mining for Greedy Bludgers in Tura Beach.

  22. Labor should “come clean” about the removal of the franking credit and admit that any pensioner with more than a million dollars in shares might lose up to $20,000 in taxpayer handouts. The objections should be treated with the sarcasm they deserve.

    Labor needs a simple statement to put it in perspective.

  23. The Coalition can scream ‘retirement tax ‘ all it likes, but the more we see of these entitled people with their 50 or 100 thousand dollar tax free income screaming blue murder because they don’t get another 15 or 20 thousand, the easier it will be for Labor to engage the vast majority of people below retirement age who actually pay their taxes to fund these rorts.

    This is a complex issue. If the person is getting $100k in dividends, it is not tax free and they are not eligible for an age pension. They will have a tax liability of (about) $30k.

    As it stands now, they get the tax credit with their dividends to pay the income tax. When the ALP policy comes in, they will still get the tax credit to pay the liability.

    So the people you are talking about (wealthy) will not be affected by the policy.

  24. Socrates says:
    Friday, February 8, 2019 at 5:01 pm
    Labor should “come clean” about the removal of the franking credit and admit that any pensioner with more than a million dollars in shares might lose up to $20,000 in taxpayer handouts. The objections should be treated with the sarcasm they deserve.

    Labor needs a simple statement to put it in perspective.

    An aged pensioner cannot have a million dollars in shares and be an aged pensioner.

    I also think ‘taxpayer handout’ as a term should be avoided when talking about aged pensioners. They may get a little nervous thinking it is the pension being referred to.

  25. There’s a great article about the Greens in the SMH.

    I’m very surprised someone hasn’t cut and pasted it here, just to “put it out there”, of course.

  26. The one thing I hate about my lifestyle is packing up to move on!!!!

    3 years of accumulated shit to go through.

    #packingsucks

    😆

  27. “At the stroke of a pen, our retirement plan, worked towards as paying taxpayers, is null and void.”

    If Labor is successful, the ­Cadzows would lose about $15,000 a year — about 15 per cent of their income, forcing them to cut discretionary spending.

    Just caught up reading about these battlers. FMD. So what is it $100,000 pa tax free ? Lets say a 5% return from their other 85% that means they have $1,700,000 invested. Plus of course the shares. and of course the family ‘hovel’ .

  28. Paul Karp
    ‏Verified account @Paul_Karp
    7m7 minutes ago

    Wilson Asset Management with helpful 5pm Friday statement in which Geoff Wilson admits he part-funded #stoptheretirementtax website #auspol
    :large

  29. DaretoTread @ #2273 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:54 am

    HaveAchat @ #2068 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:42 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2250 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:55 am

    C@tmomma @ #2246 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 3:45 am

    I know this is going to sound icky, but, can I just say from personal experience that if a big bear of a man comes in close and wraps their arms around you for a long, lingering hug, that they come into very close contact with your breasts for an extended period. They can feel them too.

    I say this because my youngest son, who is very warm and loving, came to give me a hug once when he saw that I was upset about something. He wanted it to be a big hug but about 10 seconds in we both just jumped back and went, ‘Eww!’ We had both realised that it was too close for comfort.

    So, for Scott Buchholz to do that to a young woman that he didn’t even know would obviously be cause for concern to that person.

    Surely it’s also being aware of the signs from the other person.

    If they’re not hugging you anymore then they probably don’t want you hugging them anymore.

    Surely before you hug a person of the another gender it is polite to ask, particularly if you are a stranger and not one of that person’s friends, colleagues or family.

    Please ALPers, stop fanning this one. I really think it possible that the LNP are carving a safer spot for Dutton – or at least it is possible. I may well be wrong, but I would rather not take the risk.

    Bollocks, this professional airwoman signed on to do her duty today, I doubt that she expected some fat stranger would come along and touch her body without her permission and for his own personal enjoyment. Would you be saying that it should be ignored if he had slipped his hand down her knickers, or grabbed her arse and gave it a squeeze.
    A woman or any person has a right to be able to go about their lives without some obese politician thinking that he has the right to grab hold of her all in the name of a ‘good time’ and because it was her birthday.
    Again bollocks to your thinking that this is some sort of sneaky trick to get dutton into another seat, this low life grasped a woman in his arms for his own personal enjoyment if that means that he gets his arse kicked to the door so be it.
    If and when this molesting arsehole is kicked out and if dutton gets his shiny bum in the door then fight dutton as the scum he is.
    Don’t let the idea that there may be someone worse out there excuse some arsehole that thinks he has the right to just grab any woman he wants and press his body against her and stop him being rightfully condemned for his actions.

  30. Poroti, “Just caught up reading about these battlers. FMD. So what is it $100,000 pa tax free ? Lets say a 5% return from their other 85% that means they have $1,700,000 invested. Plus of course the shares. and of course the family ‘hovel’ .”

    If their income is ‘tax free’, the capital must be in super. The fund would have had a tax liability that the franking credits can continue to offset any tax liability the fund has.

  31. HaveAchat @ #2349 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 4:13 pm

    DaretoTread @ #2273 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 8:54 am

    HaveAchat @ #2068 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:42 am

    Barney in Go Dau @ #2250 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 7:55 am

    C@tmomma @ #2246 Friday, February 8th, 2019 – 3:45 am

    I know this is going to sound icky, but, can I just say from personal experience that if a big bear of a man comes in close and wraps their arms around you for a long, lingering hug, that they come into very close contact with your breasts for an extended period. They can feel them too.

    I say this because my youngest son, who is very warm and loving, came to give me a hug once when he saw that I was upset about something. He wanted it to be a big hug but about 10 seconds in we both just jumped back and went, ‘Eww!’ We had both realised that it was too close for comfort.

    So, for Scott Buchholz to do that to a young woman that he didn’t even know would obviously be cause for concern to that person.

    Surely it’s also being aware of the signs from the other person.

    If they’re not hugging you anymore then they probably don’t want you hugging them anymore.

    Surely before you hug a person of the another gender it is polite to ask, particularly if you are a stranger and not one of that person’s friends, colleagues or family.

    Please ALPers, stop fanning this one. I really think it possible that the LNP are carving a safer spot for Dutton – or at least it is possible. I may well be wrong, but I would rather not take the risk.

    Bollocks, this professional airwoman signed on to do her duty today, I doubt that she expected some fat stranger would come along and touch her body without her permission and for his own personal enjoyment. Would you be saying that it should be ignored if he had slipped his hand down her knickers, or grabbed her arse and gave it a squeeze.
    A woman or any person has a right to be able to go about their lives without some obese politician thinking that he has the right to grab hold of her all in the name of a ‘good time’ and because it was her birthday.
    Again bollocks to your thinking that this is some sort of sneaky trick to get dutton into another seat, this low life grasped a woman in his arms for his own personal enjoyment if that means that he gets his arse kicked to the door so be it.
    If and when this molesting arsehole is kicked out and if dutton gets his shiny bum in the door then fight dutton as the scum he is.
    Don’t let the idea that there may be someone worse out there excuse some arsehole that thinks he has the right to just grab any woman he wants and press his body against her and stop him being rightfully condemned for his actions.

    Well if Dutton is LOTO while occupying the seat of Wright and then becomes PM do not say i did not warn you.

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