The Guardian reports the first result from Essential Research in three weeks has Labor’s two-party lead at 52-48, down from 53-47 last time. The changes on the primary vote are slight, with the Coalition up a point to 38% and Labor steady on 36% (CORRECTION: the Coalition is steady, and Labor down two). The Guardian report notes that Essential has changed the provider of the online panel from which its respondents are drawn from YourSource to Qualtrics, without changing the underlying methodology. Perhaps relatedly, the sample size is identified as 1652, where in the past it has been a little over 1000. The Guardian provides no further findings from attitudinal questions – we’ll see if the release of the main report later today provides anything on that front, along with the minor party primary votes.
UPDATE: Full report here. No change for the minor parties, with the Greens on 10% and One Nation on 7%. The poll was conducted between January 23 and January 31 – I’m not sure if this was a contingency for the long weekend, but in the past Essential’s field work dates have been Thursday to Sunday. Other findings:
• When presented with a number of explanations for a lack of gender parity in politics, the most favoured responses relate to the failures of political parties, and the least favoured relates to “experience and skills”. Gender quotas for parties have 46% support and 40% opposition, with age interestingly more determinative of attitudes here than gender.
• There are a number of questions on Australia Day, the most useful of which is a finding that 52% support a separate national day to recognise indigenous Australians, including 15% who want that day to replace Australia Day, with 40% opposed.
• Respondents were presented with various groups and asked who they felt they would prefer to see win the election. The most interesting findings are that the media was perceived as favouring the Coalition by 32% and 25%; that despite all the recent talk, pensioners were perceived to favour Labor by a margin of 42% to 28%; and that families with young children were perceived as favouring Labor by 50% to 21%.
UPDATE 2: It turns out that both the longer field work period and the larger sample were a one-off, to it will be back to Thursday to Sunday and samples of a bit over 1000 in future polls.
Morning all. I am staggered that 48% of Aussie adults might still vote for Sir Joh Bjelke Morrison, but there you go. Amazing what people can forget over the break.
Steve you are correct – Bowen must be more aggressive in pointing out that people who will no longer get $30K of rorted tax handouts with franking credits gone must have over $1 million in shares. A straw man.
But mainly Labor should not focus on itself. There is so much to attack in the government!
-after a weekend’s advanced peek at the banking RC yesterday, Frydenberg still could not say yesterday what actions the government would take, or when. Nor could he admit responsibility for the failure of regulators he appoints. Cash and Corman were also missing in action.
– the MDB has been so rorted even NP voting farmers downstream finally realise their own party has duded them. Labor should promise an inquiry into who did this and who gained.
– we are in the midst of fires and floods exacerbated by the climate change that most of Cabinet still denies is happening.
– the case of the Saudi women turned back at Aussie airports suggests that the greatest chance of Sharia law being imposed in Australia is if Peter Dutton remains a minister. Thanks Four Corners.
– the coalition is ruled by a Liberal faction that is racist, misogynist, anti-democratic and has largely given up running the country.
Have a good day all.
I’m currently involved in the Labor campaign for Indi (bias alert).
This means I’m closely following the campaigns of the other candidates.
Cathy’s replacement isn’t doing much other than following her around. There won’t be anything identifying her as Cathy’s replacement on the ballot paper, so she needs to do more to raise her profile. She also lacks the deep community roots – going back generations – that McGowan had.
McGowan backed indies, despite attracting national media, didn’t do well enough in the Victorian election to believe that being backed by McGowan is enough in itself.
The Nats are running a former Wodonga mayor. I have no idea how visible he was in the Wodonga community, but I was a councillor in a neighbouring shire when he was mayor and he made no impact on me (as in, I remembered his name but wouldn’t have been able to place him). Bridget McKenzie’s dilly dallying has meant he’s in the field quite late.
The Liberals are running someone totally bland.
I’m not commenting about our candidate, who is the only one in the field who has run before.
The point of this is that I wouldn’t assume this is a shoe-in indie seat….but almost any outcome won’t surprise me.
52-48 is a perfectly good result for Labor at this point. Labor is advocating big policy changes in an uncertain economy against a government that will stop at nothing to try and tear them down.
Morrison and the Coalition will do anything they think they can get away with to hold on to power. There is no standard of ethics or morality they will disregard in their quest.
it doesn’t help that the media is largely disinterested in holding this government to account.
Michael Pascoe:
And the winner is … the big banks
https://thenewdaily.com.au/money/finance-news/2019/02/04/pascoe-royal-commission-winner-big-banks/
Be interesting to see if the slight moves back to the Muppets encourage them to go election early? Momentum, momentum !!! 🙂
lefty e
Right click and copy image address. Needs to be the right format .jpeg .png ( no doubt others but I know those work) . Also it needs to be from a secure source so the start of the address needs to be https , plain http generally does not show.
That’s my lot. Hopefully the more knowledgeable will fill in a lot more tips for you. I can feel a KJ post coming on 🙂
In both the 18/12/18 and 4/12/18 essential polls the labor primary vote was 36%.
In the January 2019 poll it jumped to 38 and now back to 36.
In simple terms nothing has changed since last year.
In fact, in the 4/12/18 poll coalition primary was 38 and labor 36 ( as it is in this latest poll ) yet 2PP was 53-47. Breakdowns will interesting today.
However, the simple takeaway from this particular essential poll is stop wetting your pants either from angst or the overflowing of joy such as that blathering from the mouth of Rex and others.
doyley,
Couldn’t agree more.
lizzie @ #98 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 6:10 am
I quite like them too, except when they crawl out from your sunshade as you’re driving along and you just catch the movement above your head in your periphery.
A real WTF is that moment!!!! 😆
The Guardian won’t allow copying of images or image addresses, but it can be done via Twitter.
KayJay says: Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 10:12 am
phoenixRED @ #34 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:48 am
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Here goes KayJay – TEST
lizzie @ #97 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 10:10 am
I like ALL spiders. I try not to kill any of them, even the Funnel Web spiders we have in abundance around here. We just moved one of them from under my son’s bed and on to a new area by catching it in a jar after a storm dislodged it from its hidey hole. It didn’t come back. 🙂
And on the Essential? I still reckon the polling will settle somewhere 0.5% either side of 53/47 pre-election.
Shorten and Bowen making their cases well. Not generally a fan but have been impressed with the way Bowen has been clear and direct on his messaging. And the message is a good one. Fairness, rebuild the revenue base, and get that revenue into services that are important to people at grass roots.
phoenixRED,
(alert – nothing new under the sun, or the flood waters, to follow)
I was very moved by Flanagan.
It’s simply mind boggling. How anyone with even a tiny remnant of a social conscience can continue to vote for this lot is incomprehensible to me. So I conclude just that – no social conscience, just self interest, selfish selfish me me me. But then, it can’t be just self interest; there is nothing ahead but environmental and economic catastrophe whoever you are. So there’s denial. Like driving a ute through a flooded river. It’s insane. It’s a death wish, Thanatos.
They’re insane. Look at that facebook link lizzie put up on Morrison. The man is stark raving mad.
The wars have started. The Syrian civil war calamity is generally considered a climate change war after several years of bad droughts drove the rural population off the lands.
“Be interesting to see if the slight moves back to the Muppets encourage them to go election early? Momentum, momentum !!! “
They’ll have to go to the GG today.
THANK YOU KayJay – worked 🙂 – you are a whizz !!!!! – even edit and resized it
Thanks lizzie. You found some of my buttons this morning.
Button 1: The Liberals core belief is wielding power.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/05/tasmania-is-burning-the-climate-disaster-future-has-arrived-while-those-in-power-laugh-at-us
Button 2: Capitalism at its best is merely amoral.
https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/catching-mice-with-privatised-cats-20190118-p50s9d.html
EDIT: added the missing link 🙂
zoomster
Why ? Is the candidate not very good ?
The next poll will be back at 53/47 to the ALP when the parliament sits next week and see the dysfunction of Morrison Cabinet and backbenchers start fighting again
C@t
For years I used to pick up Huntsmen spiders in my cupped hands and remove them outside (OH at the time was frightened of them, especially in the shower). Never got bitten. However, after lecture from OH about the ‘correct’ way to catch them (cardboard and an upturned glass) I got nervous, fumbled it, spider escaped and jumped up and BIT me. 🙁 It bloody well hurt and I hadn’t realised they would actually attack. Now I just leave them alone (even in the car, Barney!).
I agree with imacca – 53 +/- 0.5 is fine, just enough buffer if there is ‘a narrowing’ to still give a majority ALP Govt.
Laura Tingle, linked to above by Bug, posts a theory that if the Indies force his hand with a vote to get people off Nauru, Morrison will call an early election with a view to running a Tampa style campaign on border security.
The Tories might think they can talk about boats for nearly five weeks but I doubt it.
We also are now in the territory where an election called in the next few weeks will heavily overlap the NSW election due in late March.
Good luck with that too.
Having been a firm believer Morrison would go for March 2 I am now resigned to May 18.
I wonder if the talk the other week of a Budget bribe for pensioners will come through.
Simon² Katich® @ #93 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 7:09 am
They’re harmless.
Pegasus
I said last night the RC was soft on both the banks and ASIC. Why no individuals named? If they were facing criminal charges, and were named, they would have to stand aside from their multi-million dollar jobs.
Incidentally the Australian mentioned that Iceland was the only country to jail its banker criminals after the GFC. It is also worth noting the outcome – despite howls of outrage from the financial world, they did not dismantle their welfare system and were one of the fastest recovering economies in Europe. See
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/three-charts-that-show-icelands-economy-recovered-after-it-imprisoned-bankers-and-let-banks-go-bust-10309503.html
And
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-35485876
So yes, it turns out jailing bankers who commit fraud and theft really
is an effective way of stopping fraud and theft. Amazing.
Wayne @ #120 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 9:26 am
Got it. I will collect all guesses haphazardly (is that really a word) from now until then, and more earnestly as the day approaches. 🙂
Indi’s Labor candidate
https://www.benallaensign.com.au/@local-news/2018/12/03/348107/labor-announce-candidate-for-indi-eric-kerr
If there is an early election Labor should ask to see updated Treasury books. ScumMo will want to hide them because, based on the retail trade figures, it is likely we were headed into recession in the December quarter.
poroti @ #67 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 10:16 am
Kind of you to say that.
Drawing himself up to his full height (4ft 18 inches) hooking thumbs in pistol belt. I am just a plodder drawing on information from many others.
Very often adding #image.jpg is required.
Wot I do is put a dot in the comment box. Space down the box four or five lines and then post your item..
.
.
Space down and put another dot.
If the image shows OK the I/You can remove the dots and spaces.
If no show a little research required.
I see that
phoenixRED (Block)
Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 10:20 am
Comment #72
has posted a picture. Why, its just like looking in a mirror.
BTW I like spiders. 🕷🕸 Although I recently falsely accused a spider to account for a cancerous growth on the back of my neck. My GP didn’t fall for that one. I hardly dare tell him on my next appointment that I think the same spider may have bitten me on my nose. 😇
LR
Put me down for 53/47 to Labor for next week. Adieu.
I like them too. I never kill them. They get so big around here they are more pet than arachnid.
But I do not enjoy waking up at 2am to screaming children demanding I save frightened gigantor biting (a bite that really smarts) spider from the pestering of over excited cats.
Sometimes it is hard to find a plastic container big enough. A4 sized cardboard sheet barely cuts it with these monsters.
Thankfully the babies are in the office, not at home.
Unrelated to anything much this morning, but thank you all for the discussion last night on the topic of same-same. I don’t feel so dumb this morning. 🙂
Rex Douglas @ #120 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 6:26 am
Well seeing she’s involved with the campaign team it would be inappropriate to publicly comment on it and the candidate without preapproval of the statement. 😆
Clearly a different species of hunstmen then. I use 1l tupperware containers. Occasionally it requires a large salad bowl.
The LNP are going to campaign on boats and border security. Its their bogeyman for suggesting Labor is soft on crime.
The LNP have lost their chance on economics as the current figures are already showing the pretence of forecasting a budget surplus just won’t work. See the Kouk’s twitter timeline.
Its all about the base. Wentworth and Victorian election results don’t count. No lessons to be learnt there.
Simon K
Good lord!!
Simon² Katich® says: Tuesday, February 5, 2019 at 10:32 am
I like Huntsmen spiders.
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Some of my friends in China had spiders for lunch
Like this
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3w4CE3SLAY
test – posts seem to be disappearing 🙁
Pegasus @ #127 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 10:31 am
Thanks Peg.
Well, whatever the result the process will be a good life-lesson for the young fella.
For spiders I use an upturned jar and a piece of cardboard to catch the spider and when it is in the jar I put the lid on so it remains firmly in place until I open the jar and let it go to it’s new home. 🙂
Ahron Young
@AhronYoung
2h2 hours ago
PM in Townsville on his way to the army base @SkyNewsAust
(video) pic.twitter.com/gqwKtxVw34
I was bitten by a huntsman spider once. To be fair , it had been in a mower grass catcher when I started to mow the lawn, so had endured 5 minutes of being pelted with clippings and fumes before I dumped the first load. Moved really really fast, gave me a painful nip and leapt into the nearby bushes.
Still, I don’t mind them.
Player One @ #136 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 10:42 am
WordPress does that to me sometimes too. It is usually associated with WordPress deciding it wants you to log in again. Not that you are given any warning.
So, I just Copy my posts now, just in case. 🙂
lizzie @ #139 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 10:44 am
I hope he gets bogged down. 😆
Simon² Katich® @ #132 Tuesday, February 5th, 2019 – 6:32 am
That was the Advertiser’s one redeeming feature when it was still a broadsheet.
Great for relocating Huntsmen.
I have recently discovered that a long handled dust pan is perfect for relocating scorpions and may work well on Huntsmen.
I should add Labor should take a moment to savour this fact. The LNP is too scared to campaign on the economy because that’s now a Labor strength as it brings attention back to banks low wages etc.
Its a remarkable turnaround that the right is trying to spin its way out of but that’s a major change in our politics since the last election
More sickening is that he’s not going to use the opportunity to call for action on climate change.
a r
Tory types love to play soldiers and dress-ups! Underneath, they’re cowards.
Steve777 : “This guy’s income dropped ‘almost 30%’ to about $61k, which suggests that this amount comprises nearly all dividends”
Although the drop in income to $61k is probably true, it is misleading. He will not be 30% worse off because he has a tax liability on his $61k which he can use the franking credits to cover.
I am not sure how much in dividends you would need to get to use up all the credits, but I suspect it would be around $100k. It won’t effect people who get more than that as their tax liability will be greater than the franking credits. That means people who have over $100k will not be effected by the policy.